After extensive wargames and planning, OKH settles on a plan. On Oct 14, 1939, the Wehrmacht will blitz into the Low Countries. The objectives:
1. Complete seizure of Belgium, Holland an Luxembourg.
2. Minimize casualties due to Guderian's nebulous "3.4 bug" warning.
3. Seize jumping off positions for the campaign against France to avoid attacking French troops with tired or spent units.
4. Gain the luxury of time to initiate attacks on France on a very limited, narrow scale.
It has become evident to OKH that attacking everywhere with everything is no longer wise. This may have been the way to proceed in parallel EA universes in the past, however current realities dictate the fewest possible attacks on fortified units to achieve desired outcomes. Support assets, limited as they are, must be be focused and applied in an overwhelming manner.
A debate rages within OKH about the merits of losing the element of surprise (70% Allied Shock) by attacking the Low Countries before Germany is totally prepared for war with France (Axis 175% Case Yellow shock bonus). However, it is thought that this tradeoff worth it as it would:
1. Allow the Wehrmacht the luxury of time to starve the Belgian Army into submission.
2. Enable the Wehrmacht to carefully and methodically probe French defences in 1939 to improve jumping off points for the main attack the following campaigning season.
3. Ensure that the Wehrmacht, Luftwaffe and Kriegsmarine are fully rested and at 100% strength when the main attack on France begins.
The plan? Simply put, seal the fate of the Low Countries with 4 individual attacks:
1. Antwerp. Without Antwerp, Belgian forces will be starved of supply and be forced to abandon their fortifications. The capture of Antwerp is to be achieved with a combined airborne and sea-lifted assault force.
2. Amsterdam. The seat of power of the Netherlands - the capture of which will force the Dutch to capitulate.
3. This frontier division will be the first speed bump along the road to Amsterdam. OKH simulations suggest this unit has very low morale and will retreat (before combat) without much of a fight.
4. This Dutch corps will need to be properly assaulted as it blocks the road to Amsterdam.
By taking hex 1, 3 and 4 in the first week, the Allies will be presented with a fait accompli. The French will be unlikely to abandon their fortifications to assist the Belgian Army but if they do, they will be vulnerable to encirclement by Wehrmacht mobile forces rushing to the frontier. After numerous simulations, OKH is pleased with the plan. These wargames showed an extremely high probabilty of success putting Amsterdam to siege within a week and a greater than 50% probability of success taking Antwerp in the first week thus depriving the entire Belgian Army of supply.
To minimize any chance of the attack on Antwerp being derailed, Amsterdam will not be assaulted in the first week and left for week two.
< Message edited by sealclubber -- 7/6/2013 6:32:57 PM >