ORIGINAL: brian brian
1) and Germany loses 3 resources per turn from Russia. Russia then has perhaps a dozen extra BPs of units on the board to face a 1941 Barbarossa.
2) Activating Rumania in 1939 costs the Axis a 5 BP HQ unit....costs in Bulgaria would include a 3 BP INF.
3) Greek resource can not be transported until the Axis clears the hex NW of Athens, which probably won't happen until M/A 40 at best, and then only with Luftwaffe support or good luck on the dice. Counting on good luck is not usually good strategy, and the Luftwaffe will likely be in the Rhineland that turn.
4) About M/A 40 is about when the CW will be able to get a 4th corps (all cheap, quick MIL most likely) into Greece and activate Yugoslavia, while still contributing to a defense of France. By that time the French navy might have gotten some attrition accomplished vs. the Italian navy, and the long Allied coastlines in the Med will slowly become more secure; they are generally only threatened on the surprise impulse, so the French coasts are safe already. Though when I command the French, I sail their INF away from Beirut on their first impulse, so perhaps better temptation for Mussolini would have made Greece perfectly tranquil. Too bad the Italian army is stuck in land-locked Albania, and can only be extricated past wandering French battleships, which have nothing to lose.
5) Axis units defending the Yugoslavian border and Axis economic outposts in the Balkans can't simultaneously be in the border zone for the Nazi-Soviet pact. And, if they are, a ZoC from a Yugo unit makes them not count for pact totals, and that could get interesting. Serbs, inadvertently sparking a Russo<>German war, round 2, just as in 1914. The Red Army, already parked in Bessarabia though with a bloody nose from rolling poorly, and their bonus production, might as well stuff the border until at least Sep/Oct 40. This would probably have little chance of success, but could force the Germans to build more ground units than they might want to, especially with the nice large, free Merchant Marine the CW will be enjoying. The Wehrmacht would be summoned to the western front, the eastern front, and the southern front simultaneously. Yugoslavian ZOC from their CAV or sneaky MTN could threaten the Axis rail supply line to northern Greece at many points. The Yugos would enjoy their interior lines and the strategy benefits from that quite a bit. So would the CW, with their potential +2 BP bounce. They could build even more MIL or INF (much easier without needing to build convoy points), maybe land one in Dubrovnik on the Croatian coast. Italy would have a not simple job of transporting their coal out of the Pola hex....finally, the French SUB has something to do, if they weren't too busy lurking off of Sardinia.
6) US entry would have taken a hit from a Russian DOW on Rumania, but the Axis issuing not-required 3x DOWs on minors, one on a major power, and aligning three minor countries would probably compensate for that. With 1939 USE chits in play, literally anything is possible, including American first gear-up in early 1940. And that spells D-O-O-M
In each turn, Germany must lend lease 2 build points to the USSR while the USSR must supply Germany with 7 resources (2 of them must be oil). These numbers can change if circumstances vary. For each of:
that an Axis major power either declares war on or aligns with (see 9.7, 9.8 and 19), reduce the number of resources the USSR must supply by 1 (minimum 0). Reduce the ordinary resources before you reduce any oil resources.
2) To me not getting the Rumania HQ and loosing 1 resource is preferable to having the USSR DoW Rumania and loosing 3x oil again. Aligning Hungary and Rumania immediately frees German units from having to garrison the border with the USSR. Which would you rather have Rumania units or German units?
I want point out when Germany aligns Rumania Italy looses its oil from Rumania. If Italy is to receive any oil Germany will have to form a trade agreement with Italy.
3) Not completely true. How important is that resource to the CW? Is the CW willing to put a Greek or CW unit on the resource hex to hold it?
4) If before Mar/Apr 1940 the CW and Italy don't go to war. If the MIL has been built by the CW. If the CW has the transports and can find a place to land in Greece. If in Mar/Apr 1940 the French fleet sails. This would mean the CW is highly focused on Greece.
5) True but the Axis has not claimed Yugoslavia yet so they don't need to be in Yugoslavia.
6) We have not considered the repercussions of the USSR choosing or not choosing:
26. The USSR controls Eastern Poland (There is a 70% chance a USA entry chit will be removed from the USA (Ge/It) entry pool)
The USSR can exercise its Nazi-Soviet Pact rights to occupy eastern Poland during any Allied land movement step. However, it can only exercise those rights if Poland has not been conquered (see 19.5.1 Eastern Poland).
27. The USSR controls Nazi-Soviet Pact areas (Baltic States) (There is a 40% chance a USA entry chit will be removed from the USA (Ge/It) entry pool)
The USSR can exercise its Nazi-Soviet Pact rights to occupy the Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) during any Allied land movement step after it has exercised its rights to eastern Poland. You can only exercise your rights over those states that are neutral (see 19.5.2 Baltic States).
University of Science Music and Culture (USMC) class of 71 and 72 ~ Extraneous (AKA Mziln)