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RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans

 
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RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/25/2013 1:45:32 PM   
Extraneous

 

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I really enjoy these discussions on the rules.

The CW can align Greece if France (29 hexes distant) and the USSR (29 hexes distant) decline to align Greece.

quote:

If there is more than one eligible major power, offer the minor to the major power whose capital city is closest to the minor’s capital (any home country in the case of the Commonwealth). If it declines, offer it to the next closest, and so on.



quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur
First: your deployment in Albania means the Italians have only about 15 combat factors to attack the Greeks, who have a 12 factor defense with the MTN alone in the mountains. It is far to few to make a successful attack on Greece, even with 4 additional Bulgarian factors. The Rumanians are lagging one impulse behind and can also only field about 5 factors. This gives you a 2-1 at most (and if the CW gets 2 INF into Greece, the situation gets even worse).


I did not attack with the units in Albania.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur
Second: in a land impulse, you are not allowed to make any naval moves (you think otherwise) and have an unlimited number of land moves...


Who said I chose a Land action (please see my post #323 on the AI for MWiF-Italy thread)?

A Land action gives unlimited land moves, unlimited land attacks, and 1x Ground support missions but no Naval movement.
A Combined action gives 2 land moves, 1 land attack (just enough), 3x Ground support missions and 1 Naval movement.

Both have unlimited shore bombardment.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur
Third: during a three impulses long attack in N/D 1939 in the Med, it is folly to think you will have nice weather all along. Statistics show you have a 50% opportunity for rain, storm or snow appearing each impulse. Don't expect the weather to be fair, it won't be.


Were dealing with an invasion on impulse 2 not impulse 3.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur
Fourth: of course the Italians fly the NAV. I want to make sure as the allies that they have to do that to get the units in Albania in supply. It prevents the Italian air force from ground striking the Greeks or to port attack the French fleet in the surprise impulse, because they have only 1 air activity in a land impulse. Moving those CL into Italian waters is only to get this done. I see it as an aggressive defensive action.
As the allies, I don't expect the Italians to stay out of supply in Albania. No sir, I want to force the Italians into actions, which I want them to do as the allies. That way, I control certain actions and won't get surprised by any Italian moves or am able to soften the effects of a surprise impulse by Italy against a possible DoW by Italy on either (or all) of France, Commonwealth or Greece.


1) If the French SCS are not around after I fight my way through the CW is not an enemy and has no effect on supply.

2) Albania would be in supply and there would be no need to fly the NAV.

3) I could just as easily have used the NAV to port strike the French fleet in port.

4) So what if Albania is not in supply I'm not going to attack with them.


quote:

And finally: what is the grand strategy of the Axis? That has to be top priority. Most players start to kill Poland and France. That's an easy decision to make. But after that you've got three options:
- Sealion
- Close the MED, followed by a Sea Lion or a 1942/1943 Barbarossa
- Barbarossa


- Close the MED (Operation Sunflower)

Include Increase production.


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck
Just as well, subs can't move in the same naval move as ships.


Correct (keep me honest Paul!)

"Each group of units you move is called a task force. A task force can contain any number of surface naval units or any number of SUBs. You can’t have surface naval units and SUBs in the same task force".


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck
You can only move two units with an Italian Combined. Best divs would still be '2' factor units. Two of those halved for invading gives two factors, tripled to 6 at most with shore bombardment and ground support. Defense is 1 plus 1 for the city, minus 1 for Surprise. For 2D10 the City defensive mod cancels the notional mod. Attack would be a +12. Probability of success is 88%, because any result where you lose more than one unit is a failure.


Correct You can only move two units with an Italian Combined action.

"Embarking and transporting land or aircraft units does not count against limits on the activities of land or aircraft units."

"Each unit which invades counts as 1 land move. Each invasion counts as 1 land attack."

Correct "Invading MAR units have their normal combat factors. Halve the combat factors of other invading units".

Correct "Each unit which invades counts as 1 land move. Each invasion counts as 1 land attack".

But a 2-3 INF division and a 1-3 INF division rounds up to the same value as 2x 2-3 INF divisions.

(2 / 0.5 = 1) + (2 / 0.5 = 1) = 2.

(2 / 0.5 = 1) + (1 / 0.5 = 0.5) = 1.5 rounded up to 2.


quote:

Breaking down
You build divisions in the usual way (see 13.6.5 Building units). Alternatively, you can break down a face-up corps or army that isn’t in an enemy ZOC into divisions at the start of the production step. Each corps or army breaks down into 1 division of the same type and 1 INF or MOT division (your choice). SS corps break down into 1 equivalent SS division and 1 SS or normal INF or MOT division.

When you break down a corps or army, you can select any divisions from your force pools but their total combat factors can’t exceed half (rounding up) those of the corps or army you break down.

If there aren’t enough divisions in your force pools to break down a corps or army, you can remove them from anywhere on the maps to make up the shortfall.



So a 3-3 INF or 4-4 INF would break down into 2x 1-3 infantry divisions.

In order to get a 2-3 INF division the corps to be broken down would have to have at least 5 attack factors (5 / 2 = 3).

The only 3 land units available to the Italians in 1939 would be:
Rome MIL (5-3) (res) (this unit is not available until war is declared)
Rome MOT (5-4)
Alpini MTN (5-4) (1939)

So you would need to get the Rome MOT (5-4) break it down in mainland Italy at set up into 1x (1-4) MOT division and 1x (2-3) INF division.
The (1-4) MOT division would have to be moved due to stacking limitations.
The (1-3) INF division would be moved into the same port as the (2-3) INF division.

Then using a Combined action on the second Axis impulse Italy can DoW France and Greece. And Invade Athens if a land unit is not there.

1x (2-3) INF division (2 / 0.5 = 1) and 1x (1-3) INF division (1 / 0.5 = 0.5) = 1.5 rounded up to 2.
Ground support 1x LND (2 or 3 doubled for surprise to 4 or 6 reduced to 2 for combat factors in the invasion) = 2
Shore bombardment = 2

The odds would be 6 to 1 for +12.
Clear city hex = -1.
Surprise impulse = +1.
Total +12

2d10 chart rolls 14 (2+12) to 32 (20+12)

Using the Assault column (which should be defenders choice)
Invasion fails: 20% (2d10 rolls of: 2,3,4, and 6) (2d10 chart values: 14,15,16, and 19)
Invasion succeeds: 80% (chance of loosing 1x (1-3) INF division 12%)


Since there has been a question on the weather it sounds like a good time to discuss rule 22.1 Intelligence (option 63).

quote:

24.4.7 The Global war: Sep/Oct 1939 ~ Jul/Aug 1945
Intelligence points: The USSR (2), Germany (2), Italy (2), Japan (1)

Nov/Dec 1939. Italy, the USA and the USSR are neutral and can’t attempt to gain intelligence points.
.


1x BP would give Germany 1x Intelligence operation (2x dice rolls or 1x multiple).

If Germanys dice rolls are higher than the CW, France, and China.

Germany could spend intelligence points and "Secretly roll the next weather roll (or examine the next one if already rolled)".




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University of Science Music and Culture (USMC) class of 71 and 72 ~ Extraneous (AKA Mziln)

(in reply to SLAAKMAN)
Post #: 31
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/25/2013 6:13:33 PM   
paulderynck


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

Were dealing with an invasion on impulse 2 not impulse 3.

Impossible. The sides in the game alternate impulses. Ergo in turn 1 all odd numbered impulses are axis ones. You have long been laboring under the misconception that an impulse consists of both sides taking a turn at moving and fighting. Not true.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous
Correct "Each unit which invades counts as 1 land move. Each invasion counts as 1 land attack".

But a 2-3 INF division and a 1-3 INF division rounds up to the same value as 2x 2-3 INF divisions.

(2 / 0.5 = 1) + (2 / 0.5 = 1) = 2.

(2 / 0.5 = 1) + (1 / 0.5 = 0.5) = 1.5 rounded up to 2.

If you attack with just those 2 units yes. But then you only have a +4 (2D10). What you are missing is that you cannot "more than double" your attack factors with shore bombardment and ground support. The rounding only happens at the end. So you get 1.5 tripled to 4.5 and rounded to 5, as I explained previously.

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Paul

(in reply to Extraneous)
Post #: 32
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/25/2013 7:05:14 PM   
Centuur


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The CW would be very stupid if they don't put the Greek INF into Athens to prevent an surprise impulse invasion which might get a lucky Italian die roll. The Italians can't reach the MTN, especially with the low number of combat factors placed in Albania...

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Peter

(in reply to paulderynck)
Post #: 33
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/25/2013 11:56:49 PM   
Extraneous

 

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quote:

Impossible. The sides in the game alternate impulses. Ergo in turn 1 all odd numbered impulses are axis ones. You have long been laboring under the misconception that an impulse consists of both sides taking a turn at moving and fighting. Not true.


Since you bring this up days after the original concept (where you stated the invasion couldn't be done). I'll make it simple (even for you).

Since I have NO idea what the other players will do I am numbering them for the Axis only.


And since you are being so picky here's one for you.

YOU ARE LABORING UNDER A MISCONCEPTION

The impulses are done by initiative so the Allies could have the odd impulses instead of the Axis.

quote:

6.2 Effect of Initiative
The side that won the initiative now decides which side has the first impulse of this turn. That side is called ‘the first side’. Note: who goes first doesn’t affect who has the initiative.


I still have enough units to get 2x (2-3) INF. The invasion can succeed.






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University of Science Music and Culture (USMC) class of 71 and 72 ~ Extraneous (AKA Mziln)

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 34
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/26/2013 5:02:31 AM   
Greyshaft


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous
...

YOU ARE LABORING UNDER A MISCONCEPTION

The impulses are done by initiative so the Allies could have the odd impulses instead of the Axis.



That is true for all subsequent turns, but I believe on turn one of the 1939 game the Axis *always* moves first (and must DOW Poland etc etc)
If that didn't happen then there would be no war in the Allied first impulse ...


_____________________________

/Greyshaft

(in reply to Extraneous)
Post #: 35
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/26/2013 5:14:01 AM   
paulderynck


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

Since you bring this up days after the original concept (where you stated the invasion couldn't be done).

You're confusing me with someone else. I gave you the odds for a successful invasion attacking either with 2 x 2s or with a 2 and a 1.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

Since I have NO idea what the other players will do...


There's a statement I can agree with.

< Message edited by paulderynck -- 4/26/2013 5:26:09 AM >


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Paul

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Post #: 36
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/26/2013 5:37:02 AM   
brian brian

 

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The Italians don't get a 2-3 Infantry division in their force pool until 1941 or so. I hope MWiF doesn't change that.

To get a 2 factor division they have to break down the MTN corps at start.

I had the # of impulses wrong to get a 6 factor invasion off on the first turn (assuming no Major Power DOW - only 3 impulses if they move a TRS out to sea with 2 divisions on board.)



Although many Allied players DOW the Italians ASAP, lately I don't favor that as the Allies. US Entry can be that big in the game. Let the Italians add a chit to your pool, and react to the result with a steady stream of cheap infantry landed in front of the weak Italian land units.

If this happens to be an Italian war with France and Greece, same response, and all the better. Make Italy give you a 2nd chit to launch war on the Brits later. Give those French BBs something to do for a couple turns, better than letting Vichy have them anyway. Italy is not going anywhere in Greece in the first winter of the war, especially if neutral CW TRS can land the Sydney and London Militia without even risking interception.

(in reply to Greyshaft)
Post #: 37
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/26/2013 11:07:18 AM   
Extraneous

 

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quote:

paulderynck
Sorry Paul I was only asking if 1x (2-3) INF division 1x (1-3) INF division being used in an invasion would be the same as 2x (2-3) INF divisions




quote:

brian brian

Italian 3rd INF division (2-3) 1941

What about with unlimited break down?




quote:

Centuur & Greyshaft
quote:

Impossible. The sides in the game alternate impulses. Ergo in turn 1 all odd numbered impulses are axis ones. You have long been laboring under the misconception that an impulse consists of both sides taking a turn at moving and fighting. Not true.


I believe I have made it abundantly clear we are NOT talking about September/October 1939 but November/December 1939 which are different turns.

Otherwise how could the USSR and Rumania have come to peace since the peace step is at the end of the turn?




quote:

Example: Japan declares war on the Commonwealth and attempts to invade the mountain hex east of Port Moresby with a 5-factor MAR from the 2 section and a 5 factor INF from the 3 section in the Bismarck sea. Only the Commonwealth notional unit is defending, but Port Moresby is occupied by a Commonwealth INF. The weather is rain.

The notional unit is usually worth 1, but you add 1 for the adjacent corps, 2 because a land unit is invading from the 2 section (the 1* shore bombardment modifier becomes 2 because of the rain) and 1 because a land unit is invading from the 3 section. You subtract 1 because it is a surprise impulse. This total of 4 doubles to 8 for the mountain.

The invading INF’s factors are halved, so Japan’s total combat factors are 2.5 + 5 = 7.5. After adding 7.5 factors of shore bombardment and 4.5 factors of ground support, the invading total is 19.5 combat factors (rounding to 20). This results in odds of 2:1 (20:8). The rain drops the final odds 1 level to 3:2 (+1 due to the notional unit being automatically face-down). Kasigi regrets not invading from a closer port, allowing an invasion from a higher section of the sea-box (if they had all invaded from the 4 section, the odds would have been 9:1 + 1 (20:2, less an odds level for the rain).


Using the example above I see where we are missing a modifier.

2x (2-3) INF divisions times 0.5 = 2
+2 factors of shore bombardment
+2 factors of ground support

The odds would be 6 to 1 for +12.

Clear city hex = -1.
Surprise impulse = +1.
Due to the notional unit being automatically face-down = +1
Total +13

Using the Assault column (which should be defenders choice)
Invasion fails: 15% (2d10 rolls of: 2,3, and 5) (2d10 chart values: 15,16, and 19)
Invasion succeeds: 85% (chance of loosing 1x (2-3) INF division 8.5%)



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University of Science Music and Culture (USMC) class of 71 and 72 ~ Extraneous (AKA Mziln)

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 38
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/26/2013 6:35:47 PM   
paulderynck


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

Using the example above I see where we are missing a modifier.

2x (2-3) INF divisions times 0.5 = 2
+2 factors of shore bombardment
+2 factors of ground support

The odds would be 6 to 1 for +12.

Clear city hex = -1.
Surprise impulse = +1.
Due to the notional unit being automatically face-down = +1
Total +13

Using the Assault column (which should be defenders choice)
Invasion fails: 15% (2d10 rolls of: 2,3, and 5) (2d10 chart values: 15,16, and 19)
Invasion succeeds: 85% (chance of loosing 1x (2-3) INF division 8.5%)


Do not confuse die roll modifiers with combat strength modifiers.

Notional is 1 plus 1 for city minus 1 for surprise equals 1.

Die roll modifier is minus 1 for city plus 1 for notional equals zero.

Attack is a +12.

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Paul

(in reply to Extraneous)
Post #: 39
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/26/2013 8:40:10 PM   
Centuur


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From: Hoorn (NED).
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As I've said already, as the Allies, I will put the Greek 4-3 INF into Athens, thus making a surprise invasion of Athens a high risk attack. There isn't a better place for this unit at set up...

Defender doesn't include the notional unit. This gives the Greeks 4 combat factors. A 3-2 attack with a -1 modifier for the city, giving a +2...


+2 means that 15, 16, 18, 19 and 20 means succes. 17% succes rate... Go ahead mr. Mussolini...





< Message edited by Centuur -- 4/26/2013 8:44:22 PM >


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Peter

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RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/27/2013 5:00:11 PM   
Extraneous

 

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Joined: 6/14/2008
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quote:

19.3 Who can enter the minor
Your units can enter hexes controlled by a minor country if:
• you are at war with it or with the major power that controls it; or
• it is conquered by you or another active major power on your side; or
• it is aligned with any active major power on your side and the unit entering is controlled by an active major power (subject to the foreign troop commitment rules ~ see 18.2 Not co-operating); or
• it is aligned with a neutral major power on your side and the unit entering is one of that major power’s unit.

The Germany is not at war with Bulgaria.
Bulgaria has not been conquered by any Axis major power.
Bulgaria is aligned with Germany and Rumanian units entering Bulgaria are controlled by Germany and are subject to the foreign troop commitments.
The Germany is not a neutral major power.


The CW is not at war with Italy.
Greece has not been conquered by any Allied major power.
The CW and France are not neutral major powers.

Greece aligns with the CW only if France and the USSR decline to align it first. They have first choice over the CW due to distance from their capitols to Athens.

If Greece aligns with the USSR the CW would not be bound by the foreign troop commitments rule. Staying on a costal hex would keep them in supply as long as a CP, TRNS, or AMPH is in the adjacent sea zone.

quote:

Units that don’t co-operate are not otherwise limited. In particular, they can:
Enter hexes controlled by each other outside their major power home countries. You may of course only enter territory controlled by another major power on your side if that major power agrees.



If Greece aligns the CW to enter Greece in 1939 you would have to commit a HQ for CW peacekeepers. You have Gort (in the UK) and Wavell (in Egypt). Which one do you plan to send to satisfy foreign troop commitments?

The CW has:
1x MECH, 1x MOT, and 1x INF division in the UK
1x INF on any map

quote:

AfA option 10: Territorial units must be set up in their home country. When randomly choosing a territorial to be placed on a map, you must
pick a territorial that can set up on that map (e.g. Australians on the Pacific map). If you are playing with the Africa map (AfA/AsA option 1), “Europe” includes the African map.

2x TERR in Egypt (Egypt TERR (3-2) and Egypt TERR (2-4))
2x TERR in Europe (British. Somali TERR (1-2), South Africa TERR (4-3), South Africa TERR (2-4), Kenya TERR (3-3), Nigeria TERR (4-2), Nigeria TERR (2-3), Northern Ireland TERR (2-2), Northern Rhodesia TERR (2-4), Palestine TERR (4-3, Rhodesia TERR (3-4), Sierra Leone TERR (2-2), Tanganyika TERR (2-3), and Uganda TERR (2-4))
1x TERR in Asia/Pacific (Australia TERR (4-3), Australia TERR (3-4), Burma TERR (1-3), India TERR (4-2), India TERR (3-3), India TERR (2-4), India TERR (3-3), and New Zealand TERR (3-3))

CW Reserves
II INF (7-3)
XLV MIL (7-1), Delhi MIL (3-3), London MIL (5-3), Manchester MIL (4-2), Sydney MIL (6-2)


The CW needs to hold Egypt, Gibraltar, Malta, and the UK. What do you plan to leave open in 1939?





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University of Science Music and Culture (USMC) class of 71 and 72 ~ Extraneous (AKA Mziln)

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 41
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/27/2013 8:14:29 PM   
Centuur


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How tempting it is. We are now assuming the Italian invasion on Athens have failed, thus eliminating the two Italian DIV used for that attack. We are almost at the end of the N/D 1939 turn and the CW is going to move units into Greece (Wavell comes in mind). There is only one Italian DIV remaining for use in an invasion. There is no Italian HQ in Lybia, at least one of the Lybian INF/TERR units will be on the Tunisian side of Lybia, this leaves two INF/TERR, one very slow GAR and the Gun on the Egyptian border. Put against those is Wavell, two TERR and the Sidney MIL (which has been transported there out of Australia). In Malta there is an INF and the London MIL and an INF is in Gibraltar.

So let's TRS Wavell to Athens. Gort and two INF/MOT are in France. This still gives the UK at least three nice land units (among which the MECH) to defend it with. This is enough, because the German navy is incapable of keeping a German invasion force in supply in the UK, if they succeed to invade the UK (which I don't think they will, because they have to fight first against an overwhelming Home Fleet who has air superiority over the North Sea, I'm afraid

Also, look at all those US entry die rolls taken in 1939 until now:

Germany DoW's Poland.
Germany DoW's Denmark.
Germany DoW's Netherlands
Germany aligns Hungary
Germany aligns Rumania
Germany aligns Bulgaria
Germany DoW's Greece
Italy DoW's Greece
Italy DoW's France
Japan aligns Siam
Italy DoW's France
Japan has taken some Chinese cities (it should have)...

On the allied side:

France and the CW DoW's Germany
USSR claims Eastern Poland
USSR DoW's Rumania
Two US entry options taken (Béarn and one against the Japanese (freeze assets is possible...).

How nice it is to see the huge number of 12 more US entry die rolls in 1939 against the axis compared with 5 in favour of the Axis... I think we are looking at the US green monster entering end 1940...



_____________________________

Peter

(in reply to Extraneous)
Post #: 42
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/27/2013 8:26:24 PM   
Extraneous

 

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quote:

We are now assuming the Italian invasion on Athens have failed, thus eliminating the two Italian DIV used for that attack.


No the premise has always been the invasion would take place if Athens is unoccupied.

quote:

We are almost at the end of the N/D 1939 turn and the CW is going to move units into Greece (Wavell comes in mind).

There is only one Italian DIV remaining for use in an invasion.

There is no Italian HQ in Lybia, at least one of the Lybian INF/TERR units will be on the Tunisian side of Lybia, this leaves two INF/TERR, one very slow GAR and the Gun on the Egyptian border. Put against those is Wavell, two TERR and the Sidney MIL (which has been transported there out of Australia). In Malta there is an INF and the London MIL and an INF is in Gibraltar.


There are also 2x (2-3) INF divisions at sea. Nothing says I have to invade just because I am at sea.

Also, look at all those US entry die rolls taken in 1939 until now:

quote:

Germany DoW's Poland.
Germany DoW's Denmark.
Germany DoW's Netherlands
Germany aligns Hungary
Germany aligns Rumania
Germany aligns Bulgaria
Germany DoW's Greece
Italy DoW's Greece
Italy DoW's France
Japan aligns Siam
Italy DoW's France
Japan has taken some Chinese cities (it should have)...

On the allied side:

France and the CW DoW's Germany
USSR claims Eastern Poland
USSR DoW's Rumania
Two US entry options taken (Béarn and one against the Japanese (freeze assets is possible...).


And what are the percentages for the US entry die rolls?




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University of Science Music and Culture (USMC) class of 71 and 72 ~ Extraneous (AKA Mziln)

(in reply to Centuur)
Post #: 43
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/27/2013 8:53:03 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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Minor countries can always be occupied by units on the same side without regard to Foreign Troop Commitment limits. It is when entering the home countries of major powers that FTC limits apply.

FTC limits is also the name ADG uses when discussing the requirement for minor countries to keep some of the units in their home country. IMO a better label for this would have been Homeland Troop Requirements, so the two rules wouldn't be so easily confused.

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Perfection is an elusive goal.

(in reply to Extraneous)
Post #: 44
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/27/2013 8:57:50 PM   
Orm


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Centuur

How tempting it is. We are now assuming the Italian invasion on Athens have failed, thus eliminating the two Italian DIV used for that attack. We are almost at the end of the N/D 1939 turn and the CW is going to move units into Greece (Wavell comes in mind). There is only one Italian DIV remaining for use in an invasion. There is no Italian HQ in Lybia, at least one of the Lybian INF/TERR units will be on the Tunisian side of Lybia, this leaves two INF/TERR, one very slow GAR and the Gun on the Egyptian border. Put against those is Wavell, two TERR and the Sidney MIL (which has been transported there out of Australia). In Malta there is an INF and the London MIL and an INF is in Gibraltar.

So let's TRS Wavell to Athens. Gort and two INF/MOT are in France. This still gives the UK at least three nice land units (among which the MECH) to defend it with. This is enough, because the German navy is incapable of keeping a German invasion force in supply in the UK, if they succeed to invade the UK (which I don't think they will, because they have to fight first against an overwhelming Home Fleet who has air superiority over the North Sea, I'm afraid

Also, look at all those US entry die rolls taken in 1939 until now:

Germany DoW's Poland.
Germany DoW's Denmark.
Germany DoW's Netherlands
Germany aligns Hungary
Germany aligns Rumania
Germany aligns Bulgaria
Germany DoW's Greece
Italy DoW's Greece
Italy DoW's France
Japan aligns Siam
Italy DoW's France
Japan has taken some Chinese cities (it should have)...

On the allied side:

France and the CW DoW's Germany
USSR claims Eastern Poland
USSR DoW's Rumania
Two US entry options taken (Béarn and one against the Japanese (freeze assets is possible...).

How nice it is to see the huge number of 12 more US entry die rolls in 1939 against the axis compared with 5 in favour of the Axis... I think we are looking at the US green monster entering end 1940...



You have Italy DOW France twice in that list. And why would Japan align Siam during 1939?

The Axis actions you listed (Siam and 2nd DOW on France removed) is around 5 entry chits added. Maybe someone can do the math? And the three Allied actions is 3 to 4 chits removed (US entry options removed since tension is needed anyway). I see no early US entry here.


Germany DoW's Poland. -12
Germany DoW's Denmark. -3
Germany DoW's Netherlands. -3
Germany aligns Hungary. -3
Germany aligns Rumania. -3
Germany aligns Bulgaria. -3
Germany DoW's Greece. -3
Italy DoW's Greece. -3
Italy DoW's France. -7
Japan has taken some Chinese cities. -4 (x2)
On the allied side:

France and the CW DoW's Germany. -9
USSR claims Eastern Poland. -7
USSR DoW's Rumania. -18


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Post #: 45
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/28/2013 4:23:44 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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Since part of this discussion was about invasions, I thought this page from the Picture and Text tutorials might be of interest.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 46
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/28/2013 8:11:02 AM   
Extraneous

 

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quote:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Minor countries can always be occupied by units on the same side without regard to Foreign Troop Commitment limits. It is when entering the home countries of major powers that FTC limits apply.

FTC limits is also the name ADG uses when discussing the requirement for minor countries to keep some of the units in their home country. IMO a better label for this would have been Homeland Troop Requirements, so the two rules wouldn't be so easily confused.


Yes, when they are at war but in this instance the CW is at peace with Italy and sending peacekeepers.

I would agree that we have gone off topic quite a bit but I'm flexible and it keeps some posts going here in the forums.



quote:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Orm

You have Italy DOW France twice in that list. And why would Japan align Siam during 1939?

The Axis actions you listed (Siam and 2nd DOW on France removed) is around 5 entry chits added. Maybe someone can do the math? And the three Allied actions is 3 to 4 chits removed (US entry options removed since tension is needed anyway). I see no early US entry here.


Germany DoW's Poland. -12
Germany DoW's Denmark. -3
Germany DoW's Netherlands. -3
Germany aligns Hungary. -3
Germany aligns Rumania. -3
Germany aligns Bulgaria. -3
Germany DoW's Greece. -3
Italy DoW's Greece. -3
Italy DoW's France. -7
Japan has taken some Chinese cities. -4 (x2)
On the allied side:

France and the CW DoW's Germany. -9
USSR claims Eastern Poland. -7
USSR DoW's Rumania. -18



I agree with Orm (thanks for the die rolls).

It seams like several low percentage rolls with two high ones for the Axis.

While the Allies have the burden of the consequations of their actions.



Why does Germany need to DoW the Netherlands so early?

Why didn't the USSR claim the Baltic States for the CP's and the buffer with Germany?




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Post #: 47
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/28/2013 12:51:25 PM   
Centuur


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@ ORM: you are quite right. I should have written: Italy DoW's CW (seperately from France) instead. Siam might be necessary if the CW puts the spare INF (or gets the Burmese TERR) it has at set-up within range of Bangkok, thus threathening to DoW Siam if the Japanese don't align it in S/O 1939. And there is something else to consider to: in 1939 the chance of drawing high numbered US entry chits is larger than in 1940. So US entry goes faster in 1939...

@ Extranous: to get as soon as possible the right positions on France and Belgium, it is wise for Germay to take out the Netherlands in the first or the second turn of the game. Personally, I would try to kill Belgium too as Germany in 1939, if weather is good enough. I don't want to waste time crushing those countries in 1940, since I'm in a hurry as the Axis. France needs to be killed as soon as possible...

And the Baltic states, well I would love as the USSR to see the German's DoW'ing them:

From RAW:
If a German controlled unit enters any hex in Estonia, Latvia,
Lithuania (...) or declares war on any of these countries, then the
Soviet player can break the Nazi-Soviet pact during any Allied
declaration of war step. Setting up the Baltic States’ convs is not
considered entering a hex in these countries.

I think I would DoW Germany if Germany DoW's any of the Baltics. The USSR gets it reserves out and the MIL becomes available and France is still in the game. How nice it is to get a two front war started in januari 1940. And I don't have to send the Germans any more oil. Bombs away on Ploesti again! How nice! Yes, the US might not like this (3 or 4 chits removed), however if the USSR gets in the European war early, this really makes things interesting for the allies. The Western front needs to be stripped of German units and France might survive...

Also: if the USSR occupies the Baltic states, they don't get any convoys out of those countries. So it is wise to wait to see what happens. Perhaps the CW and France needs good US entry for DoW'ing Italy in 1939.
Eastern Poland is mandatory to do with the USSR, as is the claim on Bessarabia, but the Baltics and Finland can wait until 1940.






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Post #: 48
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/28/2013 5:54:19 PM   
Extraneous

 

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quote:

Extranous: to get as soon as possible the right positions on France and Belgium, it is wise for Germany to take out the Netherlands in the first or the second turn of the game. Personally, I would try to kill Belgium too as Germany in 1939, if weather is good enough. I don't want to waste time crushing those countries in 1940, since I'm in a hurry as the Axis. France needs to be killed as soon as possible...
quote:


I was just wondering.



quote:


Also: if the USSR occupies the Baltic States, they don't get any convoys out of those countries. So it is wise to wait to see what happens. Perhaps the CW and France needs good US entry for DoW'ing Italy in 1939.

quote:

19.4 Minor country units
Setting up
When a minor country aligns with you, set up its initial units immediately. You must set up in hexes controlled by that minor. At least half a minor country’s initial units must set up in its home country. Set up each of the minor’s land and aircraft units that has an earlier year on its back. If it has the current year or ‘Res’, put it on the production circle to arrive as a reinforcement in the next turn (PiF Option 28: along with its pilot).

If you are playing with Ships in Flames, you don’t set up their TRS from that kit. You don’t set up any units from Planes in Flames or Mech in Flames. You do set up units from all other kits. You only set up units from America in Flames or Patton in Flames if playing those games. In all cases, you can add these units to your force pools ~ see Production below).

Set up on the map each of the minor’s naval units that has a date on its back that is at least 2 years earlier except those sunk prior to the start of the scenario. For example, in the Global War campaign, if your opponent declares war on Spain in 1940, you would set up all the Spanish ships that have 1938 or earlier on the back of their counter except for the España.

If the date is 1 year earlier, put the unit into the construction pool. If it is the current year, the units are not yet set-up (see Production below). Set up this many convoy points (use the controlling major power’s convoy points):

Estonia 1 CP
Latvia 1 CP

quote:

19.5.2 Baltic States
The USSR can exercise its Nazi-Soviet Pact rights to occupy the Baltic states (Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) during any Allied land movement step after it has exercised its rights to eastern Poland. You can only exercise your rights over those states that are neutral.

You exercise those rights by moving a land unit into any hex of the Baltic States.

Once you exercise those rights, the Baltic States are considered immediately conquered by the Soviet Union (without the Baltic States being aligned or its units set up).


quote:

You got the CP's in ADG's WiF the computer game





quote:


And the Baltic states, well I would love as the USSR to see the German's DoW'ing them:

I think I would DoW Germany if Germany DoW's any of the Baltics. The USSR gets it reserves out and the MIL becomes available and France is still in the game. How nice it is to get a two front war started in januari 1940. And I don't have to send the Germans any more oil. Bombs away on Ploesti again! How nice! Yes, the US might not like this (3 or 4 chits removed), however if the USSR gets in the European war early, this really makes things interesting for the allies. The Western front needs to be stripped of German units and France might survive...

quote:

29. The USSR declares war on Germany or Italy or both (Ge/It) (3 USA entry chits and a 50% chance of another will be removed from the USA (Ge/It) entry pool).
If the USSR doesn't declare war on both Germany and Italy in the same impulse this done separately for both Germany and Italy.


quote:

Don't forget the USSR's other front.

9. Japan declares war on USSR (There is a 50% chance a USA entry chit will be added to the USA (Ja) entry pool)



At the end of each turn the USA draws:
1939 Sept/Oct 1x US entry chit
1939 Nov/Dec 1x US entry chit
1940 Jan/Feb 1x US entry chit

Japan has taken some Chinese cities. -4 (x2)
(1 chits at start up, 2x 0.4) or 1 + (2x 0.4) = 1.8 chits

Germany DoW's Poland. -12
Germany DoW's Denmark. -3
Germany DoW's Netherlands. -3
Germany aligns Hungary. -3
Germany aligns Rumania. -3
Germany aligns Bulgaria. -3
Germany DoW's Greece. -3
Italy DoW's Greece. -3
Italy DoW's France. -7


(2 chits at start up, 1x 12, 7x 3, 1x 7) or 2 + 1.2 + 2.1 + 0.7 = 6 chits

On the allied side:
France and the CW DoW's Germany. -9
USSR claims Eastern Poland. -7
USSR DoW's Rumania. -18

0.9 + 0.7 + 0.8 = 2.4 chits

The USSR declares war on Germany or Italy or both 2.4 + 3.5 = 5.9 chits

Now there is a high-risk USSR option -5.9 US Entry Chits in 1940 and your production is 0.5 or 15 BP saving 1x oil.

Europe
Timoshenko (HQ-I)
1x MECH
2x INF
3x INF division
2x GARR
1x CAV
1x FTR 2
2x LND 3
1x LND 4
4x Pilots

Asia/Pacific
Zhukov (HQ-A)
3x INF
1x CAV
1x CAV division
1x FTR 2
1x LND 3

Any maps
1x ENG division
2x Pilots
3x oil

Reserves
3rd CAV (2-4)
1st Siberian INF (7-4)
22nd INF (4-3)
Vladivostok MIL (3-2)
Kuybyshev MIL (3-2)

And whatever you built in previous turns at 8 BP in 1939 and 11 BP in 1940.



< Message edited by Extraneous -- 4/28/2013 6:00:56 PM >


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Post #: 49
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/28/2013 8:55:56 PM   
paulderynck


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USSR cannot DoW Germany if Germany pays attention to the garrison value needed, and is crazy not to.

USSR is crazy to DoW Italy at this point in the war.

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Post #: 50
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/28/2013 10:12:49 PM   
Extraneous

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

USSR cannot DoW Germany if Germany pays attention to the garrison value needed, and is crazy not to.

USSR is crazy to DoW Italy at this point in the war.


If Germany was to DoW any of the Baltic States and enters one this breaks the 19.5 The Nazi-Soviet pact and then the USSR could DoW Germany.

If the USSR DoW's Finland and doesn't claim the Baltic States:

Germany will align Finland
Germany and Finland co-operate.
German AMPH's could be used to invade the Baltic States with Finnish units and the 19.5 The Nazi-Soviet pact and then the USSR would remain intact.




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Post #: 51
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/28/2013 11:16:31 PM   
paulderynck


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

If the USSR DoW's Finland and doesn't claim the Baltic States:

Germany will align Finland
Germany and Finland co-operate.
German AMPH's could be used to invade the Baltic States with Finnish units and the 19.5 The Nazi-Soviet pact and then the USSR would remain intact.


No, the Pact would be violated because only major powers can DoW (would have to be Germany in your example) and if Russia hasn't taken the Baltic States, they need to be DoW'd before they can be entered.



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Post #: 52
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/29/2013 3:10:05 AM   
brian brian

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Shannon V. OKeets

Minor countries can always be occupied by units on the same side without regard to Foreign Troop Commitment limits. It is when entering the home countries of major powers that FTC limits apply.

FTC limits is also the name ADG uses when discussing the requirement for minor countries to keep some of the units in their home country. IMO a better label for this would have been Homeland Troop Requirements, so the two rules wouldn't be so easily confused.



a) Aligned minor country units on the same side can not enter other minor countries also aligned to the same side, without meeting Foreign Troop Commitment Limits. This was recently possibly loosened for TERRitorial units I believe, but I haven't been sure if that would be true in MWiF. (Sounds like a thorny thing to program separately). I think that was a new optional in the last Annual?

So Rumanians can not invade Greece via Bulgaria unless the Antonescu HQ is around, and then one Rumanian unit could enter Bulgaria with it. As that HQ is a 1940 unit, it would not appear in a Rumania aligned in Nov/Dec 39; it could be built in J/F 40 and appear in Jul/Aug 40 to begin the march south. If Rumania is aligned in 1940, it appears as a reinforcement the turn after alignment. If the Axis went to war with Yugoslavia, the Rumanians could walk through Yugo to attack Greece.

I would like to know if I have any part of a) or b) wrong?.

b) I understand the Unlimited Breakdown rule. I personally don't think it will change very many things in the game. I foresee using it to get 2 extra Cav divisions for the Chinese, and one for the Japanese, and having a lot of fun with both sides. But I don't think the rule would or should accelerate the years that a given division appears in a Major Power Force Pool.

Without such an acceleration, Italy can field one 2 factor infantry division until 1941 (when they get a 2-3 Infantry division courtesy of the Mech in Flames counter sheet I think) - the Alpini mountain division. It could break down the MTN corps and then build a second mountain division I guess, presuming the "unlimited" divisions are all the same. ? I've never been sure how the Unlimited Breakdown rule would interact with straight building divisions. ?

Italy's maximum invasion in 6 factors where their air force can reach, but they need 3 divisions landing to get 6 factors. Until perhaps a second Alpini division is built, and/or any Italian Marines appear on the board. One of Italy's best options is to land a force somewhere on their surprise impulse....there are several possibilities to pick from.


c) Nov/Dec 1939 is the single worst turn in the game for the Axis to do something that generates a US Entry chit. Whatever that may be had better achieve big results that are worth more than getting it done a turn later in Jan/Feb 1940, which you might exchange for the US entering a whole turn or two earlier. If that happens, the Axis will greatly regret their decision in 1945. There are exceptions of course - I'd take Gibraltar on Nov/Dec 39 if I had some crazy chance to do it. Walking a couple hex rows into Greece is definitely not worth it. With bad weather through the winter, giving the Allies USE chits on the second turn is just not a good idea.

Siam - As Japan I would let the Allies have it. Maybe their -5 roll will take a "5" USE Chit out of the US Pool. They can't hold Bangkok any more than they can hold anything else in SE Asia. And the Japanese can just liberate the place later. A conquered Siam might slow down a drive on the Burma oil resource by a turn or two, but I would trade that for a chance at keeping the Yankees more neutral. The date of US Entry determines Japan's fate to a huge degree, and all the rest of the goodies in the Malay pensinula are at the southern end of it.

All of this stuff is magnified in MWiF, where the USE chits drawn could be several more 4 or 5 chits than in WiF:FE.

(in reply to Shannon V. OKeets)
Post #: 53
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/29/2013 3:19:31 AM   
brian brian

 

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I do like the image of the Finns moving into Estonia to protect it from the Russians though. Wish that could work somehow. Instead I have heard of Germans bringing Finns to Germany to get some help in attacking France in the winter. Never seen that myself. Decisions in Finland are fascinating too but deserve a separate thread.


I see where Steve's post came from - the idea that the CW would need an HQ in Greece. The CW can land units in an aligned Greece even if they are not at war with Italy. I was posting more about how difficult it would be to use the Axis countries in the Balkans to attack Greece with....nearly impossible really. Until Adolf sends troops at least.

I would never send Wavell to Greece though - he leaves for France immediately, and the Aussies take over the defense of Egypt.

(in reply to brian brian)
Post #: 54
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/29/2013 4:54:59 AM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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a) Aligned minor country units on the same side can not enter other minor countries also aligned to the same side, without meeting Foreign Troop Commitment Limits. This was recently possibly loosened for TERRitorial units I believe, but I haven't been sure if that would be true in MWiF. (Sounds like a thorny thing to program separately). I think that was a new optional in the last Annual?

So Rumanians can not invade Greece via Bulgaria unless the Antonescu HQ is around, and then one Rumanian unit could enter Bulgaria with it. As that HQ is a 1940 unit, it would not appear in a Rumania aligned in Nov/Dec 39; it could be built in J/F 40 and appear in Jul/Aug 40 to begin the march south. If Rumania is aligned in 1940, it appears as a reinforcement the turn after alignment. If the Axis went to war with Yugoslavia, the Rumanians could walk through Yugo to attack Greece.


You're right of course, Brian. I had in mind units belonging to major powers. For instance, French units can enter Belgium without regard to FTC limits, even though the latter is aligned to the Commonwealth.

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Post #: 55
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/29/2013 11:53:30 AM   
Extraneous

 

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My fault I was mixing up examples and rules (from memory).

quote:

19.5.3 Breaking the Nazi-Soviet pact
If a German controlled unit enters any hex in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania or Turkey or declares war on any of these countries, then the Soviet player can break the Nazi-Soviet pact during any Allied declaration of war step. Setting up the Baltic States’ convs is not considered entering a hex in these countries.

If a Soviet controlled unit enters any hex in Denmark, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Sweden or Yugoslavia, then the German player can break the Nazi-Soviet pact during any Axis declaration of war step.

Once broken, there is no longer a neutrality pact (see 9.5), nor a trade agreement (see 5.1), between Germany and the USSR.


quote:

Example: The USSR declares war on Finland in 1939 while Germany and the USSR are not at war. Finland becomes controlled by Germany. During the war, Finland takes Murmansk and conquers a Russian controlled Estonia. In 1941, Germany declares war on the USSR. Murmansk and Estonia immediately become German (rather than Finnish) controlled.


quote:

Since in this case Foreign Troop Commitments only take effect if Rumanian units stop in Bulgaria.

When Germany DoW's Greece and Bulgaria has been aligned it has 2 units.

II INF (3-3)
Sofia MIL (2-3) (reserve)

So one of them can leave the country into Greece and take Salonica.

Then in the next impulse the Bulgarians can move out of Salonica and the Rumanians can rail in.

Remember the title of the thread is "strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans". I consider most of the thread is dealing with "repercussions". So were still on topic



< Message edited by Extraneous -- 4/29/2013 12:47:48 PM >


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Post #: 56
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/30/2013 6:10:24 AM   
Extraneous

 

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Or since in this case Foreign Troop Commitments only take effect if Rumanian units stop in Bulgaria.

When Germany DoW's Greece and Bulgaria has been aligned it has 2 units.

II INF (3-3)
Sofia MIL (2-3) (reserve)

The Bulgarian unit moves from the mountains, to the forest, to Salonica, and back into the forest.

Then the Rumanian Alp MTN (4-3) and I INF (4-3) (or the you could use the German MTN if you don't think you need it in France) can rail into Salonica in the same turn.




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Post #: 57
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/30/2013 6:17:09 PM   
paulderynck


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous


Then the Rumanian Alp MTN (4-3) and I INF (4-3) (or the you could use the German MTN if you don't think you need it in France) can rail into Salonica in the same turn.



Not if the turn ends before you get one more impulse. And you'll need two rail moves (Rumanian in, Bulgarian out, or all 3 rail moves to put two Rumanians there) to do it, unless you want to wait two more impulses (one of which will be with Salonica empty for the intervening Allied impulse).

I'd rather be using my precious rail moves to get the slowest units that conquered Poland over to the French border.

Besides all this, what happened with Bessarabia? The only way you can align both Rumania and Bulgaria at this point in the game is if Germany controls Belgrade, or Germany enforces a Peace after the USSR DoWs Rumania.

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Post #: 58
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/30/2013 6:23:14 PM   
paulderynck


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

Or since in this case Foreign Troop Commitments only take effect if Rumanian units stop in Bulgaria.


For the boardgame, it has been clarified that for land movement you cannot even enter a hex that needs FTC without having FTC. Rail moves and air missions etc. that don't end the step there are OK without FTC, but land moves cannot even enter, let alone move through. (FAQ 18.2-11)

I cannot recall if MWiF enforces this clarification.

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Post #: 59
RE: strategy and its repercussions in the Balkans - 4/30/2013 6:37:48 PM   
Shannon V. OKeets

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck


quote:

ORIGINAL: Extraneous

Or since in this case Foreign Troop Commitments only take effect if Rumanian units stop in Bulgaria.


For the boardgame, it has been clarified that for land movement you cannot even enter a hex that needs FTC without having FTC. Rail moves and air missions etc. that don't end the step there are OK without FTC, but land moves cannot even enter, let alone move through. (FAQ 18.2-11)

I cannot recall if MWiF enforces this clarification.

MWIF enforces the land movement restriction hex by hex when a unit moves. Air missions can fly over but not stop. This also applies to 'FTC" for air units leaving their home country.

I am not sure about rail movement, without looking at the code. My guess is that it is enforced hex by hex.

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