From: Iowan in MD/DC
I am in October '44 and I really do not understand this desire to pool all of this HI as Japan. By pooling all this HI you are reducing your production during a period of simi parity with the Allies. Then you are going to use this excees HI to produce stuff when the Allies have both a quantive and qualitivative advantages over Japan.
I currently have about 50K of Hi in October '44. To keep my fuel and industry balanced, I simply shut down factories, to balance the system out. For example I have completely stopped all Merchent factories months ago. I also boosted up my plane and engine factories during '42/'43 and now i can turn some of them off depending on my needs and the numbers in the pools. This makes a lot more sense than reducing my production at a time when it really matters. Especially to build stuff that will not hold up well against the Allied forces.
But like any game, what is great, you can play your way and I can play my way and all is good
I'd argue that it's possible that overzealous expansion can actually cost you more (or any expansion in the case of LI), which is why people save up HI and then turn it off later - so that they can better control whether or not they have fuel and all that jazz for the defensive operations they want to conduct later in the war. For example, expanding aircraft production immensely such that you're building at (say) 100% faster than other people would, but not saving any HI in the process (and expending lots of supplies to expand those factories), whereas a more optimal course might be to build 50% faster for a longer period of time - saving those supplies and HI expenditures from expanding, as well as not burning through your HI as quickly. In a real world analogy, if I'm driving a car and have to make a sudden course adjustment to avoid crashing, I'd rather it be going 35 mph than 55 mph. Not that I don't agree with you about making the most out of the period of semi-parity, and lengthening it as much as possible, through quick production early ;).
GJ - it's a lot of work, and maybe somebody has laid the framework already, but you can probably calculate how much HI you'll need for pilots through the end of the war... That's the biggest chunk, probably. Then you can calculate the HI needed for the (few?) ships you want to build. Those two areas should stay pretty constant and aren't really affected (much) by the pace of action. Plane losses and Arm/Veh points needed to fill out units, however... I would probably look at the historical rates so far, what Allied advances you might expect, and try to do a bloody/conservative estimate of losses and therefore production needs. I'd probably revisit this on a monthly basis, but doing something like this should give you an idea of how much you need to have stockpiled.