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RE: NKorea Situations

 
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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 11:40:25 AM   
Terminus


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Did he? Where do we know this from?

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Post #: 61
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 1:04:41 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tocaff

Today, the North has better missles that can probably be armed with chemical warheads, war heads which could render entire ports unusable and cause enormous civilian casualties depite the claim that there's an NBC suit for everyone in the RoK.

In short, the next armed conflict in Korea won't be a replay of the 1950's; IMO, the missles the North is rapidly developing are a game changer, and should Kimmy boy get his fat fingers on a nuclear device and develop a delivery system, well ...


But how many missiles could be launch before being obliterated by the US retaliatory strikes?

If Israel-Hamas conflict provide some guidance on what to expect, you can see that only the very short range missiles could be hidden from the Israeli strikes


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Post #: 62
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 3:58:00 PM   
bjmorgan


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Attachment (1)

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Post #: 63
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 5:19:10 PM   
Joe D.


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Terminus

Did he? Where do we know this from?


I recall it from an in-country S2 brief at the 2nd AD TOC.

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Post #: 64
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 5:26:58 PM   
Joe D.


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Jorge_Stanbury

quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tocaff

Today, the North has better missles that can probably be armed with chemical warheads, war heads which could render entire ports unusable and cause enormous civilian casualties depite the claim that there's an NBC suit for everyone in the RoK.

In short, the next armed conflict in Korea won't be a replay of the 1950's; IMO, the missles the North is rapidly developing are a game changer, and should Kimmy boy get his fat fingers on a nuclear device and develop a delivery system, well ...


But how many missiles could be launch before being obliterated by the US retaliatory strikes?

If Israel-Hamas conflict provide some guidance on what to expect, you can see that only the very short range missiles could be hidden from the Israeli strikes



These quotes are mismatched with their speakers.


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Post #: 65
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 8:29:57 PM   
tocaff


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Hmm I think something that I didn't post is being attributed to me. Jorge_S and Joe have posted it and it was Joe who originally put it forth.

No matter what if there is a war there lots of people are going to die, regardless of win, lose or draw.

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Post #: 66
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 8:32:32 PM   
LoBaron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

I found this one really interesting. Part 2 is also there.

It is from the North Korea studies institute in the US

Introducing North Korea


Very interesting and well done. Thanks for posting that link, Gräfin.

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Post #: 67
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 8:44:09 PM   
RisingSun


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tocaff

Hmm I think something that I didn't post is being attributed to me. Jorge_S and Joe have posted it and it was Joe who originally put it forth.

No matter what if there is a war there lots of people are going to die, regardless of win, lose or draw.


Yup that what war is all about, if Japan didnt start the war back when Pearl Harbor was hit, wondering what kinda military and technology would be like now? So we cant start anything yet, otherwise it would make USA look bad. So we have to wait til they start shooting first and i dont like that at all.

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Post #: 68
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 9:08:31 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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Yes, I once again botchered the "quote" option.

And yes, lots of people will die if war start... And in this particular scenario, we are talking hundreds of thousands or even millions of (mostly NK casualties).



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Post #: 69
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 9:22:31 PM   
AW1Steve


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Deleted

< Message edited by AW1Steve -- 4/10/2013 2:31:29 PM >


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Post #: 70
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 9:31:24 PM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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I think it will depend on the size of the "incident".

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Post #: 71
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 9:41:51 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Maybe I'm showing my age



You are, which means you remember the Cold War. Which was the reason for the responses you cite. Times are different now.

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The Moose

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Post #: 72
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 9:58:12 PM   
Lecivius


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Times are, politics are not I see an air campaign if the south gets in over it's head. Even that would be limited as the US has not recovered stock piles from all the shooting in Iraq & Afganistan. And those actions were tame as opposed to what would happen if the north went south. I don't see anyone crossong the 38th. That is one bad, nasty place. I could see some shooting going on, with a hunker down policy on the north while beating more drums.


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Post #: 73
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 10:11:09 PM   
tocaff


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I remember an incident where the NK attacks US soldiers with axes and the US troops didn't even fire in self defense.

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I never thought that doing an AAR would be so time consuming and difficult.
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Post #: 74
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/8/2013 11:45:19 PM   
AW1Steve


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Maybe I'm showing my age



You are, which means you remember the Cold War. Which was the reason for the responses you cite. Times are different now.


Deleted

< Message edited by AW1Steve -- 4/10/2013 2:31:50 PM >


_____________________________

"Geezerhood is a state of mind, attained by being largely out of yours". AW1Steve

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Post #: 75
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 12:28:35 AM   
Kwik E Mart


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...that place is crazy...i'll never forget an attempt to lure us into flying into the DMZ with MIJI techniques (Meaconing, Intrusion, Jamming, and Interference) during a departure from Osan...made flying off the soviet coast seem like a pleasure hop...


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Post #: 76
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 1:24:36 AM   
Joe D.


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tocaff

I remember an incident where the NK attacks US soldiers with axes and the US troops didn't even fire in self defense.


I think I recall that same incident -- US soldiers were told to clear away some foilage along the DMZ and things went downhill from there.

_____________________________

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Post #: 77
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 1:40:32 AM   
bigred


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

I've often wondered why some many people think that the USA will violently respond to an attack on an ally with Nukes or overwhelming force, when our own history shows that we are reluctant to attack North Korea even when our own forces are attacked directly , and we were in a much better situation (due to a much stronger combat force ratio in the USA's favor)?

Maybe I'm showing my age , but does anyone recall USS Pueblo, the USN EC-121 shootdown , the "Secret war" (Which by the way included a direct North assault on the "Blue House"--the executive mansion of South Korea) , murders of US forces in the DMZ on several occassions and incursions from the North into the South too numerous to count. I recall a quote from the 1st LT of Pueblo thinking "our captors seemed awfully smug for people about to be blasted by a Polaris missile". Although LBJ may have been one too send "mixed signals" alternating between "the calvalry to the rescue" (one of his favorite lines) to "runaway!" (My apologies to Monty Python). RMN was seldom known for backing down. Using diplomacy , alternating with carpet bombing , and not really caring about public or congressional approval.

I don't see US leadership showing counter agression to agression. I see back door diplomacy , begging China to interfer on our behalf, and large basket of "messages expressing concern". What I WOULD hope to see is that if South Korea is attacked , We'd tell the Park administration , "We've got your back". I don't see Kim successfully attacking Japan,Guam or Hawaii. I could see him try. But I see him failing in a humilating manner , which would give the US options of 1) Retaliation 2) "Laughing it off" or 3) Joining in with other allied nations in the region in a show of force, and inviting China to join in. (Which would China in a VERY interesting position. They want to be respected as a "Big power" in the region and joining in would give them both "face" , while allowing them to cuff an "unruly vassal state" which doesn't seem to know it's place. All while acting like a "Good citizen" of the region and improving it's relationship with it's trade partners. (And preventing "Too much" of a regime change" in NK , but putting someone more ammenable to them in the drivers seat.



When I arrived in Korea in 82 my battalion had already rotated to the DMZ from Camp Casey. My company had a three week assignment occupying CPs Oulett and I dont remember the other CP name. As a late arrival to the unit I became the QRF platoon leader for Panmunjom(my first real mission). While there my sister platoon on CP Oulett was probed by north Korean commandos. After the incident the company was told to fill 2 or 3 thousand sand bags to fortify the position. They counted the rounds expended, found blood on the hillside but no bodies(today I wonder if our men just got spooked). I was on night patrol w/ one of my squads every third night. My job was to insure we did not walk into a minefield by accident at night.
I guess my point is while there you never know when something bad will happen.. When young I was not concerned. Today I know better.

< Message edited by bigred -- 4/9/2013 1:46:28 AM >


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Post #: 78
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 2:10:02 AM   
Gräfin Zeppelin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

I found this one really interesting. Part 2 is also there.

It is from the North Korea studies institute in the US

Introducing North Korea


Very interesting and well done. Thanks for posting that link, Gräfin.

You are most welcome. For me it was an eye opener. It is somewhat long but very informative and surprisingly unbiased.

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Post #: 79
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 2:11:25 AM   
DivePac88


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The real situation -




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 80
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 2:48:32 AM   
AW1Steve


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DivePac88

The real situation -






_____________________________

"Geezerhood is a state of mind, attained by being largely out of yours". AW1Steve

"Quit whining and play the game. Or go home". My 7th grade baseball coach. It applies well to WITP AE players.

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Post #: 81
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 3:08:23 AM   
Gunner98


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gräfin Zeppelin

I found this one really interesting. Part 2 is also there.

It is from the North Korea studies institute in the US

Introducing North Korea


Interesting, somewhat refreshing but frustrating at the same time.

B

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Post #: 82
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 3:30:12 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Maybe I'm showing my age



You are, which means you remember the Cold War. Which was the reason for the responses you cite. Times are different now.


Yes they are. We are even MORE timid. Do you honestly expect to see a response like the Cuban missile crisis , or Operation Praying Mantis , or ANY of the "WOG-bashing" action that occurred during the Reagan years? I think that being at war since 2001 has sapped any interest in "risky" operations.

We have as a culture learned to embrace "fictions". Like legal fiction that allows us to consider a corporation as a "person", we see China as a "friend" , even though they have technically been at war with us since 1951. Russia is our friend. All of the middle east are "our friends". We have so many friends that we forget what an enemy , or at least an adversary, is. We rarerly speak harshly of anyone ,let alone take punitive action.

Today, the west in general , and the USA specifically is so concerned with offending nations and peoples generally the best action is simply to wait it out , and let others solve the problem.

So Moose, you are right. It's not ww2. It's not 1950. Or 1968.Or even 1986, let alone 1991. It's 2013. A not-so brave , not really new , world.


First, it's not a legal fiction that a corporation is a person. It is a person. A very specialized type of person, but a person under the law. Not a natural person. A corporation can do many things--own a fleet of aircraft, sue someone, hold a copyright, own a dog--but not other things. It can't vote, marry, hold a pilot's license, or commit murder. These things have been true at least back to the 18th C. in the English system. That a certian candidate, a graduate of the Harvard Law School, inartfully said without context or appreciation for his audience that corporations are people doesn't make it untrue. They are within the definition of the word as he used it.

Second, we are not at war with China. There is disagreement if we ever were (they insist they were never at war in Korea; all their soldiers were volunteers), but widespread agreement that we are not now, despite the media's constant repitition of the statement "the Korean War never ended." The truth is fascinating and quite complex. There is no universal agreement among international law experts whether an armistice can survive 60+ years, especially when some of the signatories do not exist any longer. At worst there is nearly universal agreement that whatever legal structure exists now as a remnant of 1950's Security Council and General Assembly (once the USR came back from the men's room and started vetoing) actions, none of it applies to any of the parties not since acting as if there is an armistice. To wit, the USA, China, and the two Koreas. Nobody asserts Turkey is "at war" with China, despite them being a party to the armisitce.

If interested, I found a quite succinct, but a bit dense and legalese-ish, document which serves as an excellent summary of the history of the legal status of the conflict and the armistice. Korea was perhaps unique among all modern wars in that it was completely a UN artifact, not a conflict fought under unilateral or multilateral sovereign authority. It was literally a police action under the UN Charter, at a time when we all were still in the honeymoon phase on the UN.

The link to the document--which I urge anyone participating in this thread to read--is

http://www2.law.columbia.edu/course_00S_L9436_001/2005/2a_armisticelegal_norton.html

Third, and last, I do not agree we are timid. We never have been such as a nation. We have been jingoistic at times, we've blustered and beaten our chests, but we've never been timid. That is not necessarily the opposite of jingoistic. Quiet confidence is. We have ironbound defense treaties with South Korea and Japan. They are perhaps co-equal with the NATO Treaty in the degree of importance given them by every US president since WWII or the Korean War. We WILL go to war to defend either or both. So why do we need to proclaim this to yapping pups like the Boy Wonder? What is achieved? What do we gain? If we respond to his threats and rhetoric we give him power.

Nations have interests, not friends. Our relations with China have evolved constantly throughout my life and yours, and they will continue to do so. The China of 1980 is not the China of 2013. In the past their interests have aligned with North Korea's; there is substantial evidence now that is changing. We have some ability to steer that evolution, but not much. China has its own problems. Where our interests align, however, we would be foolish to reject this due to events from 60 years ago, the same as we reject the Tojo government's actions 70 years ago.

The situation in Korea could go in many ways. I personally do not expect the current leader to the leader one year from today. If he is not what follows might be worse. If it is we'll deal with that.

I think the current dust-up has the effect of making many Western observers forget the truth that the situation in Korea cannot stand much longer. The disparity on each side of the DMZ is growing too great. South Korea and the First World are accelerating away from North Korea in terms of wealth, of tech, of medicine, of military ability. NK, even with China's patronage, is not long for the world. It has too many contradictions. HOW it evolves to its next phase is far more important than bluster over missiles moving. It's going to end, and pretty soon. It can do so in a spasm of violence, or it can go the way of East Germany. Getting to the latter route is a far more important job for US and Chinese and South Korean leadership than responding to every raving comment emanating from the North. If they want to fight they'll get a fight. They'll lose, but a lot of people will die and a lot of South Korean progress will go up in smoke. It doesn't have to be that way, but it might be. In the meantime, we stay quiet and project strength.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 4/9/2013 3:36:34 AM >


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Post #: 83
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 3:34:38 AM   
AW1Steve


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

Maybe I'm showing my age



You are, which means you remember the Cold War. Which was the reason for the responses you cite. Times are different now.


Deletd

< Message edited by AW1Steve -- 4/10/2013 2:32:21 PM >


_____________________________

"Geezerhood is a state of mind, attained by being largely out of yours". AW1Steve

"Quit whining and play the game. Or go home". My 7th grade baseball coach. It applies well to WITP AE players.

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Post #: 84
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 3:49:59 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

OK. As usual Moose , we will just have to "agree to disagree". Maybe one of these days we will agree on something , but again, not tonight. (And frankly, I'm not holding my breath).


However you feel about me, I urge you to read the document I linked to. I learned a lot, and I'd bet most everyone not an intrernational lawyer would too.

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Post #: 85
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 4:15:34 AM   
AW1Steve


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve

OK. As usual Moose , we will just have to "agree to disagree". Maybe one of these days we will agree on something , but again, not tonight. (And frankly, I'm not holding my breath).


However you feel about me, I urge you to read the document I linked to. I learned a lot, and I'd bet most everyone not an intrernational lawyer would too.


Deleted

< Message edited by AW1Steve -- 4/10/2013 2:32:45 PM >


_____________________________

"Geezerhood is a state of mind, attained by being largely out of yours". AW1Steve

"Quit whining and play the game. Or go home". My 7th grade baseball coach. It applies well to WITP AE players.

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Post #: 86
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 4:57:25 AM   
geofflambert


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I haven't read through this thread, but what I expect is if the Kim gives us sufficient provocation, we will sink/destroy his navy. If not, business as usual. I should be more specific, if he provokes us enough, the US Navy has to be salivating over the opportunity to annihilate the Kim's submarines. I believe he's treading very closely to this outcome. I hope it doesn't happen, not because we wouldn't be better off without those subs, but because it would be an escalation which would be the foundation of further escalations. If nukes get used, the world will change forever.

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Post #: 87
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 7:03:17 AM   
Commander Cody


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First of all, the situation of the Western media over-hyping tension on this peninsula is actually starting to affect business, so it's gone way too far. It's long past time to ignore the child throwing the tantrum and by extension not offer any candy to shut him up. Otherwise, the cycle will continue for another five decades.

Another factor is that the South Korean government is on record allowing local commanders to use disproportionate force against naval attacks or the rocketing of islands such as what has happened in the last few years on the West Coast. The only fly in this ointment is that the U.S. has recently agreed to support and contribute to these counterattacks, and I can see the South Koreans waiting until the U.S. actually agrees to act. As mentioned above, the U.S. hasn't done anything to retaliate against Northern provocations and probably won't in the future, so there goes the threat of disproportionate retaliation. I just hope the Norks don't realize that.

Cheers,
CC

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Post #: 88
RE: OT - NKorea Situations - 4/9/2013 11:34:17 PM   
Will_L

 

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RE: OT - NKorea Situations - 4/10/2013 12:25:58 AM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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I foresee a serious ass kicking happening soon..




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Jorge_Stanbury -- 4/10/2013 12:26:52 AM >


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