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OT - NKorea Situations

 
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OT - NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 7:51:48 PM   
RisingSun


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Things are getting weird and confusing at this point, just curious what you guys thing is going to happen in the next couple of weeks? Some say its miscalulations and others say it is just plain bullsh*t like most South Koreans been saying for years. As for now we probably dont have to worry about them hitting us in the USA, but we do have bases within range of their missiles.

I didnt think that little guy would be so dumb enough to bring this threats and what in the hell is Dennis Rodman is up to? If this little guy does care and like basketball and enjoy having Rodman, what the point starting this sh*t in the first place.

Other Communist States, such as China and Russia are trying to resolved the situations, but we dont really see the clear picture here what the hell is going on at this moment. All we can do is place those military hardwares in positions incase all hell break loose, the question is, if they (NK) fire first, does that mean we can counterattack or defend our bases and Allies from it?

< Message edited by wdolson -- 4/5/2013 11:40:50 PM >


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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 8:13:28 PM   
Chickenboy


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Before I reply, would you mind adding "OT" to your subject line, please. Thanks.

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 8:14:37 PM   
cohimbra


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I don't think that the NK generals want to be hanged by the americans...but I could be wrong

< Message edited by cohimbra -- 4/5/2013 8:15:49 PM >

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 8:30:22 PM   
Capt. Harlock


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This really should be moved to a General Discussion forum, but let me try to address the military and legal questions, and avoid politics, which is banned. Legally speaking, the Korean War never ended. An armistice was signed, which was meant to be a permanent cease-fire, but not a resolution of the conflict. That armistice has been broken by both word and deed on several occasions. Therefore, all three parties (North Korea, South Korea, and the U.S.) are legally entitled to resume hostilities at will.

However, although North Korea's army outnumbers the South Korean army and the remarkably small 27,000 American troop contingent, its equipment is mostly obsolete. In the event of all-out war, the Northern troops would advance at first, then be routed, and North Korea would end up conquered. But in the meantime, Seoul would be reduced to ruins by long-range artillery, and then likely overrun, to be recaptured a few days later. This would cause the deaths of around one million people and tank the Asian economies, and then the world economy.

In other words, even though it is technically permissible, everyone wants to avoid all-out war. What the North Koreans appear to be doing is practicing asymmetrical warfare, making moves that cannot be responded to without the escalation that would lead to disaster.

< Message edited by Capt. Harlock -- 4/5/2013 8:35:12 PM >


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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 8:42:55 PM   
AW1Steve


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Deleted.


< Message edited by AW1Steve -- 4/10/2013 2:28:56 PM >


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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 8:44:36 PM   
AW1Steve


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock

This really should be moved to a General Discussion forum, but let me try to address the military and legal questions, and avoid politics, which is banned. Legally speaking, the Korean War never ended. An armistice was signed, which was meant to be a permanent cease-fire, but not a resolution of the conflict. That armistice has been broken by both word and deed on several occasions. Therefore, all three parties (North Korea, South Korea, and the U.S.) are legally entitled to resume hostilities at will.

However, although North Korea's army outnumbers the South Korean army and the remarkably small 27,000 American troop contingent, its equipment is mostly obsolete. In the event of all-out war, the Northern troops would advance at first, then be routed, and North Korea would end up conquered. But in the meantime, Seoul would be reduced to ruins by long-range artillery, and then likely overrun, to be recaptured a few days later. This would cause the deaths of around one million people and tank the Asian economies, and then the world economy.

In other words, even though it is technically permissible, everyone wants to avoid all-out war. What the North Koreans appear to be doing is practicing asymmetrical warfare, making moves that cannot be responded to without the escalation that would lead to disaster.



Deleted

< Message edited by AW1Steve -- 4/10/2013 2:29:15 PM >


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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 9:25:21 PM   
Symon


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Personnaly, "face" is something that can be slapped. I think we should. They are pathetic little pieces of owl feces and need to be brought up short. Don't think China will mind much, because North Korea is a loose cannon that needs to be brought under control. If a Western Power guts the little swine, China will huff and puff, but be realistically thankful. So long as whacking-the-mole doesn't advance the boundaries: them as you as know, know just what I'm saying.

JWE

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 9:46:08 PM   
RisingSun


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Well sorry i posted this in the wrong place, i usually hang out in here mostly. After what i read and heard that NKorea having over 700,000 soldiers, 60,000 special forces and thousands of artillery pieces. No telling if they have nuclear abilities or WMDs or not. If they wanted to, they can wipe out and overrun the South pretty easy. Wish this game forum had off topic sections so i wouldnt have to hunt elsewhere.

One more thing, they (NK) are willing to give their lives to their country, they'er mostly all family and been like that for many generations. That remind me of Japanese in WWII as Kamikaze Attacks as well.

< Message edited by RisingSun -- 4/5/2013 9:49:14 PM >


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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 10:01:26 PM   
jeffk3510


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My guess is nothing will happen...as usual.

I would agree with John, however the moral factor of all of the innocent civilians that happen to be in the area...

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 10:14:58 PM   
AW1Steve


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Symon

Personnaly, "face" is something that can be slapped. I think we should. They are pathetic little pieces of owl feces and need to be brought up short. Don't think China will mind much, because North Korea is a loose cannon that needs to be brought under control. If a Western Power guts the little swine, China will huff and puff, but be realistically thankful. So long as whacking-the-mole doesn't advance the boundaries: them as you as know, know just what I'm saying.

JWE



Deleted

< Message edited by AW1Steve -- 4/10/2013 2:29:41 PM >


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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 10:28:18 PM   
Sardaukar


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Nations do not have friends, they have interests.

And I think all in that region have vested interest to keep NK in bay.

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 10:32:34 PM   
jcjordan

 

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My view of the political situation in NK is there's a 2 year old brat throwing a tantrum (NK) & the parents (China/US) are discussing (what are we going to give China for them dealing w/ NK) what to do w/ that child. This is the norm in how we deal w/ NK. NK throws all kinds of rhetoric out & we make some kind of deal w/ China for them to quiet NK down then NK then gets something from China, about it's only trading partner.

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 10:32:44 PM   
Symon


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quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve
Consider it this way John. China lost nearly a million men in the Korean war. While North Korea is ruled by asswipes, it is ruled by THEIR asswipes. I wouldn't count on their non- interferance , if only because they have invested so much in lives and treasure. Imagine if the Phillipines went the way of Kim, would the USA be so quick to abandon them? Or would we keep trying to chivy them back into place , while telling other countries "Back-off"?

I suppose, Steve. I do believe in the investment of life and treasure. That's what makes NK such an utter horror show. Wouldn't mind talking with you about the philosophy of violence, but in the meantime, I'm looking at NK being a field of radioactive glass; but that's just me.

Ciao. John

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 10:35:21 PM   
AndyG1

 

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The news we are getting here in Australia confirms the rhetoric etc, but also the threat of nuclear missiles - they have the capability apparently. This latest escalation has been going on for a while now, but just heard now the N. Koreans have advised Foreign Embassies in S.Korea that they can't guarantee their safety and that they should leave. Also that they are moving some of their big missiles to their East Coast. Apparently they can't reach the US mainland, but they can reach everywhere else in 'Asia' (including Australia) as well as Hawaii. Trouble is, all it takes is one wrong decision or bluff (on either side) for it to go too far.

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 10:51:23 PM   
packerpete

 

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Having ballistic missiles that just MIGHT fly a long way does not mean it will hit anywhere near the intended target.

Having a nuclear DEVICE does not mean you have a nuclear or atomic weapon. A DEVICE does not a practical or deliverable WEAPON make.

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 10:51:50 PM   
Terminus


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I haven't heard anything that tells me the NK's have bombs small enough to fit on their missiles.

As for China, yes they expended a million people in Korea, but that was 60 years ago. The current Chinese leadership is busy raking in the cash; they have little reason to go to war for the prolapsed sphincter that is North Korea.

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 10:59:14 PM   
Kwik E Mart


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...according to rodman, all the little dictator wants is a call from the white house...

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/5/2013 11:05:54 PM   
LoBaron


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To be honest I think NK does not display anything greatly diverging from what they have been trying (successfully I might add)
for decades already.

They up the tension until it gets close to unbearable, mix threats with display of wounded pride and comndemnations of western acts of
aggression, and then return to the bargaining table, agreeing to slowly step down again in exchange for foreign aid. Kim Jong Un might even
be a bit more excentric than his father, but he learned the ropes under his leadership, and bargaining for foreign aid with nuclear weapons
was what his father did all the time. It works on two ways: keeping the Population from starving completely, and at the same time justifying
the nuclear arsenal.

Regarding China, I do not think one could simply say they want NK getting taught a lesson, or want to get rid of them as an ally.
The DPRK is a buffer zone against US troops, and it is a great buffer zone. Noone gets through there. The Chinese might be annoyed with NKs way
of dealing with foreign politics, but I do not think China believes this outweights the benefits. Losing NK, and China got US troops and a western
oriented ROK in their backyard. I think they still prefer crazy Kim.

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 12:04:37 AM   
Will_L

 

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I think that China will eventually foment a coup and replace the NK government. They can't be happy that a large number of pro-Chinese officers were purged from the NK military shortly after Kim Jong Un came into power. The military units that were activated by China on their border with NK most likely will be used to prevent a massive influx of refugees fleeing from NK in the event of a conflict. China inflicted Kim Il Song and his spawn on Korea and they should be the ones to remove them from it.

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OT - RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 12:10:40 AM   
wdolson

 

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I changed the topic of the original post to OT, but the rest weren't changed.

There seem to be a very wide range of opinions about North Korea ranging from "nothing will happen" to "we're n the brink of Korean War II".

Many years ago I had a conversation with a ballistic telemetry expert. His expertise was how to make missiles and space craft go where they are supposed to. He said the US, and other countries that have been working on missiles for decades have a tremendous body of institutional knowledge about guiding missiles built up. There is a fair degree of art to the science. It isn't something someone can just learn by reading a few books.

In that light, North Korea is still new at the art of guiding missiles. They have designed some large missiles that could conceivably reach as far as the west coast of the US (not something I'm thrilled about since I live just outside of a west coast city!), but they have very little experience with guidance systems. I have heard their last missile test was aimed at Alaska, but ended up falling into the middle of the Pacific. Probably Marcus Island was the nearest land mass.

Then there is the other problem of how to mount a nuke on a missile so it goes off when you want it to. That is another art that North Korea has no experience with.

North Korea did put a payload into an unstable orbit on one of their launches. I have heard the concern that they might want to put a nuke in orbit and set it off over the US causing an EMP. I think this is a worst case scenario, but I don't think they have good enough quality control to pull it off.

I don't know what is going to happen. In one sense people are much the same all over the world, but in another cultures can make people very different. North Korea is the most isolated country on Earth. Their culture is very different from every other country. We also don't know what their leadership thinks is sabre rattling and what they think is possible.

We will see what happens in the coming weeks.

BTW, the first post in this thread referred to the "communist countries". There are very few of them left and Russia is no longer communist. Their form of democracy is probably not as solid as say Western European countries, but it is technically a democracy.

Just stay away from potential forum flashpoint issues like opinions about US politicians and I think this thread can stay active.

Bill


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RE: OT - RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 1:01:04 AM   
Captain Cruft


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It does all look like loony tunes from here, but what I'm thinking is that Japan is extremely vulnerable economically at this point. They are in a position which though not as bad is somewhat analogous to the 1930s i.e. they have a large energy problem.

Maybe someone thinks this might be the time to force Japan into a war that will ruin it? What would Japan do if North Korea attacked it with conventional weapons?

What if all the anti US rhetoric is just a deception to hide the real target?

I have no idea, just some thoughts that popped into my head as I was loading up those Resources at Fusan ...

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 2:08:13 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

To be honest I think NK does not display anything greatly diverging from what they have been trying (successfully I might add)
for decades already.

They up the tension until it gets close to unbearable, mix threats with display of wounded pride and comndemnations of western acts of
aggression, and then return to the bargaining table, agreeing to slowly step down again in exchange for foreign aid. Kim Jong Un might even
be a bit more excentric than his father, but he learned the ropes under his leadership, and bargaining for foreign aid with nuclear weapons
was what his father did all the time. It works on two ways: keeping the Population from starving completely, and at the same time justifying
the nuclear arsenal.

Regarding China, I do not think one could simply say they want NK getting taught a lesson, or want to get rid of them as an ally.
The DPRK is a buffer zone against US troops, and it is a great buffer zone. Noone gets through there. The Chinese might be annoyed with NKs way
of dealing with foreign politics, but I do not think China believes this outweights the benefits. Losing NK, and China got US troops and a western
oriented ROK in their backyard. I think they still prefer crazy Kim.


This is mostly my perspective as well.

I'd add that China would hate an unstable DPRK, as there would be a predictable surge of refugees across their border. That would be an unmitigated disaster, so from China's perspective-status quo is the best option. The Chinese benefit from a 'stable' DPRK, as it keeps the refugees off their turf and is also a bulwark against the rest of the "West", including Japan and S. Korea. The Chinese couldn't give a rip about the DPRK's use of slave labor, its forced labor camps, political concentration camps (I use that term very specifically) and deified dictatorship. It serves their ends, so there you go. If the Chinese can keep the starving North Koreans on North Korean territory, it's better than having starving North Koreans on Chinese territory.

The DPRK is doing nothing more than making noise at the South and the rest of the world (including Japan and the US) in order to get some appeasing settlement. If I had a buck for every time they have pledged "war" or saber rattled in the last 20 years, I'd be wealthy. Let 'em make noise.

By the way, I think we should enact a lend/lease with the South Koreans. We should lend them the arsenal of democracy to fend off aggression from regional neighbors. OK-it's not an original idea-but bear with me. If it so happens that they are victims of a nuclear attack from Pyongyang, then we should 'lend' them a fully equipped and loaded Ohio Class SSBN, complete with 24 Trident II SLBMs and the trained crew to show them how to use it in their defense. As part of the training, we temporarily turn over command positions to a South Korean Captain, XO and Weapons officer and let nature take its course. So, that's 4x24 W88 475 KT nominal yield MIRVs. That oughta just about cover every potato patch in North Korea. Assuming they had potatoes there.

Hey, if the DPRK wants to export its nuclear weapons technology and then use it in an offensive manner against its neighbors, why should we not beat 'em at their own game? Plus, WE didn't pull the trigger. It was the South Koreans that nuked 'em back.

Of course, it won't come to that. I just hope we have the stomach to roll our eyes, let 'em rant and carry on status quo. I'd like to think that we would just ignore them, but history suggests that South Korea is an easy mark.




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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 2:31:03 AM   
Gunnulf

 

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This telegraph article has a fairly decent stab explaining NKs 'diplomacy'. Basically attempting to bargain for reducing sanctions. Whether this time he has gone too far and risks losing too much face with his people if he is forced to blink remains to be seen... :

quote:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/davidblair/100210753/what-does-north-korea-hope-to-gain-from-all-this-tub-thumping-belligerence/

An instructive guide to diplomacy Pyongyang-style is provided by the tale of the nuclear facility at Yongbyon. As part of his strategy of escalation, Kim Jong-un declared on Tuesday that he would reopen this plant. The regime had agreed to shut it down in 2007. Kim probably hopes to win a concession in order to refrain from actually restarting Yongbyon – and keep the agreement that his regime has already made.
That is the general pattern of North Korean behaviour. The country makes an agreement in return for food aid or economic help. Then it breaks the deal. Then it wins another concession in returning for promising to keep the agreement that it has already made (and broken). Robert Gates, the former US defence secretary, ruefully described this as “selling the same horse twice”.
As for Yongbyon, it would take at least six months to get this plant up and running. And North Korea probably has little use for it anyway. The regime’s first two nuclear bombs were made with plutonium extracted from Yongbyon. But North Korea has since developed the alternative route to a Bomb via uranium enrichment. There are signs that the most recent nuclear test in February could have used a device made from uranium.
So Yongbyon is almost certainly surplus to requirements: the regime could build nuclear weapons without this plant. In any case, it already has enough plutonium in stock to build up to a dozen devices. So if this crisis is defused by a North Korean agreement to refrain from restarting Yongbyon, this would be a pretty meaningless concession.
You can sum this up as follows. North Korea is effectively saying “remember that nuclear plant which we agreed to shut down six years ago and we don’t need anyway? Well, we’re going to start it up again. Now give us a concession and we might keep the earlier deal. And if we do leave Yongbyon lying idle, we lose nothing anyway.” How do you deal with a regime like that?

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 2:45:53 AM   
Tophat1812

 

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Well you'd certainly solve the issue of starving North Koreans.

How about we get a friendly country,ally or adversary to make some target bribes for regime change? Some of the North Korean hierarchy are looking long in the tooth and lavish retirement might look better than a burlap sack in a potato field. Heck it might even stop that nasty little unauthorized printing of US $'s that seems to be a North Korean sport.

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Post #: 24
OT - NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 4:06:04 AM   
1EyedJacks


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I think all we need to do is run weekly drops of junk food for about three months. We could start with Kentucky Fried Chicken, send over McDonalds Burgers and Fries the next week, Pizza Hut the week after that and keep it up for 3 months. Them North Koreans ain't dumb. They'll start thinking about all the milk and honey on the other side and pretty soon they'll have a regime change...



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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 5:04:00 AM   
gradenko_2000

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

This telegraph article has a fairly decent stab explaining NKs 'diplomacy'. Basically attempting to bargain for reducing sanctions. Whether this time he has gone too far and risks losing too much face with his people if he is forced to blink remains to be seen... :


I doubt that Un will lose face with the North Korean populace. The way I would expect this to play out would be for the US/SK naval exercises to end by the 30th of this month, then Un will declare a victory. He gains credibility in the eyes of his people, the US gets to ship a couple more air defense systems to SK without escalating the situation because NK's threats are a justification, and everyone goes home happy.

The situation is "different" insofar as NK is doing a different kind of saber-rattling, but only because they already did the "surprise attack" type of saber-rattling back in 2010 when they shelled that island off the mainland. They can't do that again because it'd just be a rehash, and a repeating pattern means their bluff and bluster won't be taken seriously. Instead, they're bluffing and blustering via constant escalation, but in the end its really just bluff and bluster. The media just likes to run B-roll of jets and tanks and goose-stepping soldiers because its good TV.

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Post #: 26
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 5:34:13 AM   
bigred


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Symon


quote:

ORIGINAL: AW1Steve
Consider it this way John. China lost nearly a million men in the Korean war. While North Korea is ruled by asswipes, it is ruled by THEIR asswipes. I wouldn't count on their non- interferance , if only because they have invested so much in lives and treasure. Imagine if the Phillipines went the way of Kim, would the USA be so quick to abandon them? Or would we keep trying to chivy them back into place , while telling other countries "Back-off"?

I suppose, Steve. I do believe in the investment of life and treasure. That's what makes NK such an utter horror show. Wouldn't mind talking with you about the philosophy of violence, but in the meantime, I'm looking at NK being a field of radioactive glass; but that's just me.

Ciao. John

IIRC last year the NKoreans shelled a village on an island off SKorea, destroyed some houses and killed some civilians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fire_damage_on_Yeonpyeong_Island.jpg

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01768/Yeonpyeong-island_1768397i.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/worldnews/8153194/North-Korea-bombs-South-Koreas-Yeonpyeong-Island.html&h=388&w=620&sz=65&tbnid=BukEgPz2XU2i0M:&tbnh=76&tbnw=122&zoom=1&usg=__pgXR1WHuLabpff9GtmXd9j-kiIs=&docid=ASzwBOw9ro2ymM&sa=X&ei=YK1fUc2HEIHI9QTA9oHICQ&ved=0CE4Q9QEwAw&dur=418






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< Message edited by bigred -- 4/6/2013 6:07:13 AM >


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Post #: 27
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 8:36:26 AM   
RisingSun


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wdolson, thank for taking care of that on the topic. Well you guys remember when Japan was at war with China back in July 1937, then before Pearl Harbor was hit, USA cut off embargos of Steels, Oils and other materials because Japaneses wouldnt back off or withdrawl from China?

Cutting off the food aids, maybe or may not be a good idea, it would put them in a situations like "well fu*k it, let do it and there is no other ways!" They have been starving for many years and they are not happy about it. Only way to work with them is to understand them, be kind and try to do the right things without pushing too far with regrets or even threaten them will piss them off. Maybe exchange luruxy items, foods and other goodies they would like for exchange for military hardwares. Living in peace is relaxing and living in horrors for many years is not easy to fix. IDK, guess i need to do some research way back in 1950s when the war started, not sure who to blame for this situations.

We dont want to see Korea going up in smokes as well countries around it, plus many lives would be lost because of miscalulations or understanding.

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RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 10:32:54 AM   
Jorge_Stanbury


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Pure rethorics in my opinion. It is also important to understand capabilities before intentions.

The biggest difference from the PH times is that today it is only the US who has a monopoly in crippling surprise attack capabilities (usually, but not only through the use of stealth bombers).

For lil-Kim the third, it will be completely impossible to launch any meaningful surprise attack against the US. Sure some bizarre shelling or even a terririst attack can be attempted, and if successful, civilian losses guaranteed, but anything more "interesting" like arming or fueling a nuclear tipped missile (assuming they have the capability) will raise red flags quickly enough for pre-emptive strikes



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"From now on, the more we work, the happier we will become. Let’s make the culture of Greater East Asia flourish more and more. In order that the peoples of Greater East Asia can communicate with each other, let’s learn Japanese"

(in reply to RisingSun)
Post #: 29
RE: NKorea Situations - 4/6/2013 1:17:45 PM   
RisingSun


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That is true, i dont think they have fully capable of launching long range missles yet, since they are young or beginning to learn on their own. So we all know that they have failed couple of times in the past. But if they manage to have import from Russian made hardwares or China, that would be a serious problem.

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