I understand your point and agree, but there's a ton of cities to garrison. He's only got 10 units or so in that expanse and they are retreating.
You got only 4 turns of snow starting roughy 10 turns from now. Since you attack less effectively in snow and THEPRO's have 10 more turns to form their own version of a Maginot line I don't see a great winter offensive coming down the pike. I haven't fully decided my plans (I'm considering something very different to what I had intended), but I do know that blizzard prep is under appreciated and ends up being a Chineses fire drill for most.
I'll digress a little. I think Pelton's view of German victory (or draw as the game definitely favors the Soviets presently... again I think big changes are coming in future patches) is correct... Army management skill is more important than fighting prowness.
Handing blizzard effectively can save tens of thousands of troops; each a body that the Soviets have to walk over to get to Berlin. Look what you have to do, (and my list will be missing stuff)
1) Plan fall-back lines (ie forts in the south)
2) Cut Toe back (I'm also messing with Hq Toe.. (a little)
3) Evacuate non essential troops, Luftwaffe, SU's
4) Evacquate key quality troops.
5) Reorganize all Army Groups.. a bigger problem than people realize
6) And plan how to get them back by late February.
A winter offense isn't high on my priority list. am I wrong ???
[Super short version] Yes.
[Short version] If you give (as in gratis) the Soviets 7 turns (4 mud, 3 snow) of pre-blizzard recovery time, it will not matter what your preparations. You will get owned.
[Normal, perhaps slightly verbose version] It's a bit like pool - if you only focus on shooting the balls into the pockets, you're missing out on the safety play dimension of the game. Got to make it hard for your opponent to score. You would hand over the initiative and they could choose to go aggressive or they could choose to pick the low hanging fruit only and at the same time build a monster army that you will not get anywhere against in '42. You must keep the pressure up, that means selective attacks during mud as well (though not using Pz). Units eliminated during the snow offensive will not come back for free!
/end answer to question - rail destruction is covered in AP class, but you have not applied as of yet.
The 15 routs is an excellent indicator of the current state. Routed units will rally, but they will not get replacements while routed, so they are out for at least an extra turn. The conversion to 41b rifle division is still ongoing so the individual unit strength will get lower as well.
One thing I noticed about that AGC post-combat T11 screen shot is that there were a lot of ?-units behind their line - are you skipping on brushing your teeth/doing recon?
Don't mess with the HQ's - you are & will be short ARM, not men and Support Squads use men.
Read up on Winter Mitigation and fill those spots before you drag stuff all the way back to Poland.
Odessa's size 15 Port will need 94% damage to become unusable ( < 1 effective point), a very wasteful use of air assets. 3-4 good ID should do the trick. What are your plans for the Crimea?
Lastly, to anti-paraphrase the Sergeant in HSB: Remember to have fun!