RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice

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RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice

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RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 1:49:43 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Posts: 306
Joined: 9/6/2004
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and lastly the naval losses update:

Attachment (1)

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John 21:25

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Post #: 31

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 2:19:03 PM

ny59giants

Posts: 6061
Joined: 1/10/2005
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You want FULL divisions assigned and prepping for Noumea. Using all those Naval Guards and SNLF will not get the job done. They are great for taking lightly held bases, but not in this situation. Even a brigade will not fair well when they come out on the wrong side of a combat result. Expect at least one division to get a high percentage of disablement in the first deliberate attack. For reference, look at what happened to your troops at Singapore and on Luzon.

Slightly OT - Any ship that gets hit with a torpedo will probably show up on the sunk list.

< Message edited by ny59giants -- 2/13/2013 4:23:19 PM >

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Post #: 32

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 2:28:25 PM

catwhoorg

Posts: 257
Joined: 9/27/2012
From: Uk expat lving near Atlanta
Status: online

I'd be fighting the good fight.

Look for a secondary landing at Efate, and build up a support of the LBA.
Use your BBs to destroy the airfield, and then it will swing in your favour.

Draw the carriers into a battle on your terms. Thats a whole lot of men the allies could lose if you render them out of supply.

(in reply to leehunt27@bloomberg.net)

Post #: 33

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 2:29:50 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 14882
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody
A guy comes to the forum looking for advice on how to mitigate a defeat and the forumites encourage him to do a 180.

Indeed. I wonder how these advisors will jibe historical realities with the Japanese defending in penny packets way too far forward to effect a useful strategic defense. If the Japanese (IRL) hadn't squandered their ships, air and manpower on some festering rock-e.g., Guadalcanal, could they have set up a more useful defense in depth in, say, the Marianas? All signs point to 'yes'.

Now these advisors are recommending a Japanese war of attrition in a remote SW Pacific outpost. At what expense? If this defense, after prolonged losses, collapses-will it jeopardize the balance of the IJ defensive effort? What happens if tit for tat exchanges continue throughout 1943-will the Japanese still be in a position to defend the DEI from a different axial threat?

Captain Mandrake's AAR is one where the Japanese bolt has been well and truly shot. Huge debilitating losses for the IJ in N. Australia and New (and improved!) Caledonia. Result? The Allies are gobbling up the Central Phillipines in March 1943. Disaster.

As the Japanese player, you have only so many assets. Would you rather pick and choose a defensive line and selectively reinforce it or would you rather fight forward-WAAAAY forward, shoot your proverbial bolt and hold it at crippling costs to your long-term viability as defender?

Beware the free strategic advice you receive on this forum, OP. All of it is well-intentioned, I'm sure. But you won't have these people coming back to say 'mea culpa-I gave you REALLY bad advice' 6 months or a year from now if they're wrong. You know your game better than any of us do. It's your game. It's your war. It's a long war. Think long-term about your assets, limitations and goal in the game. Good luck!

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Post #: 34

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 3:09:24 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Posts: 306
Joined: 9/6/2004
Status: online

I'll end up with 4 full divisions plus all those little SNLF's and brigades. Maybe i'll floatplane those guys out to the bases and use the divisions as you suggest NY59Giants.

@Chickenboy-- i understand your point. My divisions were on the way to the Marianas, Truk, Nauru, Ponape etc and i was pulling out of the Kwajalein area entirely (6,000 max troops per island is just target practice for the allies). I was going to either:

1) evacuate under fire as much as i could from Caledonia and then stockpile Marianas, PI, Kendari with full divisions and Allies would "never" get to bomb Japan
2) evacuate slowly over months, building up bases nearby and ports just to facilitate the exit
3) or pile on the forces and try to win Noumea

Choices #2 and #3 require the same steps and movements, so theoretically i could still pull out intact (better than Guadacanal historical evacuation). A Koumac with size 3 port and air superiority and nearby bases would allow that, and also allow further invasion. I definitely feel though that the japanese player is losing if he isn't advancing. Though he may have some CV's left (intel report could be wrong on torp hits) he hasn't used them near Noumea yet at all. And i bashed a surface fleet of cruisers there with my BB's. EDIT: just saw he has 2 CV's near Midway trying to take a shot at one of my resupply convoys. Those are probably the only CV's he has!

I spent some time organizing and creating a dozen new shipping convoys, and i think it won't be long before i have a string of decent bases from Rabaul down to New Caledonia. I've already started transferring squadrons from China/Burma and Topsy's & Thalias etc.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by leehunt27@bloomberg.net -- 2/13/2013 4:32:17 PM >

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John 21:25

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Post #: 35

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 5:05:50 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 14882
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
I definitely feel though that the japanese player is losing if he isn't advancing.

Ah! A common misconception.

Let me assure you that you will 'lose' this game. As Japanese, it's inevitable. Based upon your position in July 1942, auto victory is off the table for you. Thus, the only question is 'when is the war over' and what position will you find the Empire in late 1945.

You can 'lose' a whole lot faster by overextending your forces than a reasoned and supported strategic withdrawal. A whole lot of Japanese players (most?) get the 'victory disease' and want to advance further than they can be supported. "Take it because it's there / because I can" is a death knell for long-range strategic Japanese planning.

So the germane questions for you now are, in my opinion:

1. Can I, through defensive (and limited counteroffensive) operations, hold off the Allies until January 1946-thereby shifing the victory conditions in my favor?

2. Can I, through strategic defensive (and limited counteroffensive) operations, make the Allies pay a premium for prime real estate? Is it feasible to outright deny the Allies prime real estate?

3. What can I do to hold off the Allied interdiction of oil and fuel from the DEI?

4. What can I do to forestall the Allied strategic bombing campaign of the home islands?

Sure, killing Allied divisions is swell. I like the idea of running 'em into the sea and collecting the VPs. Throw the Gauntlet at them at Saipan? OK. No holds barred over Luzon? Makes sense. But you must avoid losing the war on New Caledonia.

Pyrrhic victories are tantamount to strategic losses for the Japanese in this game. How will you avoid a pyrrhic victory here?

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Post #: 36

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 5:19:02 PM

Bullwinkle58

Posts: 6196
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody
A guy comes to the forum looking for advice on how to mitigate a defeat and the forumites encourage him to do a 180.

Indeed. I wonder how these advisors will jibe historical realities with the Japanese defending in penny packets way too far forward to effect a useful strategic defense. If the Japanese (IRL) hadn't squandered their ships, air and manpower on some festering rock-e.g., Guadalcanal, could they have set up a more useful defense in depth in, say, the Marianas? All signs point to 'yes'.

Now these advisors are recommending a Japanese war of attrition in a remote SW Pacific outpost. At what expense? If this defense, after prolonged losses, collapses-will it jeopardize the balance of the IJ defensive effort? What happens if tit for tat exchanges continue throughout 1943-will the Japanese still be in a position to defend the DEI from a different axial threat?

Captain Mandrake's AAR is one where the Japanese bolt has been well and truly shot. Huge debilitating losses for the IJ in N. Australia and New (and improved!) Caledonia. Result? The Allies are gobbling up the Central Phillipines in March 1943. Disaster.

As the Japanese player, you have only so many assets. Would you rather pick and choose a defensive line and selectively reinforce it or would you rather fight forward-WAAAAY forward, shoot your proverbial bolt and hold it at crippling costs to your long-term viability as defender?

Beware the free strategic advice you receive on this forum, OP. All of it is well-intentioned, I'm sure. But you won't have these people coming back to say 'mea culpa-I gave you REALLY bad advice' 6 months or a year from now if they're wrong. You know your game better than any of us do. It's your game. It's your war. It's a long war. Think long-term about your assets, limitations and goal in the game. Good luck!

It is a long war. And it's early.

The choice the OP has is not the one you are arguing over. Perhaps he should not have gone where he has gone. But he did. Now his choice is not to rewind time or not. It's to lose 20+ LCUs and 50,000 men for nothing or risk more and keep them for something, while inflicting a real and psychological blow to the Allies. You have to address the situation he has, not the one you wish for.

For the record, I am not advocating he stay at Noumea until 1945 and have parties on the beach. I said originally and I still do that the way you evac his force is through a non-Level 1 port. There's only one available. He can't walk to another.

Take the island, crush the Allies. Leave for better defense lines. Which is not what I read you saying.

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The Moose

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Post #: 37

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 5:21:23 PM

Bullwinkle58

Posts: 6196
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
I definitely feel though that the japanese player is losing if he isn't advancing.

Ah! A common misconception.

Let me assure you that you will 'lose' this game. As Japanese, it's inevitable. Based upon your position in July 1942, auto victory is off the table for you. Thus, the only question is 'when is the war over' and what position will you find the Empire in late 1945.

Baloney.

He can certainly win the game. As I've said umpteen times now, all Japan has to do to win is not lose. The game design is very balanced if Japanese players will just play it and not their domination fantasies.

Edit: reading the balance of your comments after this I will back off--a little--as you seem to have conflated "win the game" with "win the war", a common thing in these parts. The OP can certianly still win the game. Whether he can achieve an auto-victory I don't have enough info to tell. His opponent seems pretty fast and loose with his navy though, so maybe.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 2/13/2013 6:13:35 PM >

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Post #: 38

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 5:32:44 PM

Alfred

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Both Chickenboy's and Bullwinkle's points are valid but in the long run the OP should pay more attention to Chickenboy because he is framing his advice in strategic terms whereas everyone else is taking only a tactical approach. Even in the short term Chickenboy's position has more merit because it is the only one which attempts to disabuse the OP from two very basic and fundamental errors which are:

New Caledonia is important to Japan. It is not, was not important in real life, is not important in the game
Japan can only win by advancing. Advancing to where and with what, achieving what actually in the process

These errors flow from not understanding the game's victory conditions. I sound like a broken record but the game is structured to give Japan a very good chance of achieving at the very least a marginal victory, although in reality the chances of Japan achieving a major victory are very good.

Alfred

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 39

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 5:37:47 PM

Canoerebel

Posts: 9038
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Yeah, the whole point of the advice to "win the Battle of New Caledonia" is the possibility of achieving a meaningful victory over the Allies on favorable odds, thus postponing the Allied juggernaut.� If he loses, of course it's bad news.� But in July '42 shouldn't the Japanese�seize a chance to thrash the Allies under favorable conditions? Chances generally don't improve as the game goes on. If not now, when?

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)

Post #: 40

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 6:05:59 PM

Tophat1812

Posts: 1459
Joined: 1/16/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net
I definitely feel though that the japanese player is losing if he isn't advancing.

Ah! A common misconception.

Let me assure you that you will 'lose' this game. As Japanese, it's inevitable. Based upon your position in July 1942, auto victory is off the table for you. Thus, the only question is 'when is the war over' and what position will you find the Empire in late 1945.

You can 'lose' a whole lot faster by overextending your forces than a reasoned and supported strategic withdrawal. A whole lot of Japanese players (most?) get the 'victory disease' and want to advance further than they can be supported. "Take it because it's there / because I can" is a death knell for long-range strategic Japanese planning.

So the germane questions for you now are, in my opinion:

1. Can I, through defensive (and limited counteroffensive) operations, hold off the Allies until January 1946-thereby shifing the victory conditions in my favor?

2. Can I, through strategic defensive (and limited counteroffensive) operations, make the Allies pay a premium for prime real estate? Is it feasible to outright deny the Allies prime real estate?

3. What can I do to hold off the Allied interdiction of oil and fuel from the DEI?

4. What can I do to forestall the Allied strategic bombing campaign of the home islands?

Sure, killing Allied divisions is swell. I like the idea of running 'em into the sea and collecting the VPs. Throw the Gauntlet at them at Saipan? OK. No holds barred over Luzon? Makes sense. But you must avoid losing the war on New Caledonia.

Pyrrhic victories are tantamount to strategic losses for the Japanese in this game. How will you avoid a pyrrhic victory here?

You are missing the point as our good moose demonstrates in his reply. The Japanese are already on New Caledonia with 2+ divisions and a host of naval infantry,snlf and support units. The player asked: How do I best get these guys off the bloody island? The consensus answer from the gallery to the operational problem at hand was...........take the island and "exit" from the level 6+ port where the allies have stranded 2+ infantry divisions of their own! The IJ player already has 2 more divisions on tap to commit to the operation. Nobody said anything about keeping a major Japanese army on the island after conquest or did i miss that? The way to save 2+ jap divisions for later use in defense is to win this battle and "Redeploy" or get outa Dodge! Nobody in this whole thread including the player who started it was pondering staying on the island in force.

Hopefully the allied player will now devote time and energy into taking the island back,leaving our young IJ hero to dig fortifications elsewhere. Think of this as a rescue/delaying action/set the battle space endeavor. Much rather the allies fight and struggle up the Solomon islands than knife into the central pacific or dive into the DEI from western Oz and Darwin. Then again right now the allies are short of flight decks and capability with 2 divisions and who knows how many precious aircraft on the line? This is a strategic gift and opportunity in July of 42' not a debacle.

(in reply to Chickenboy)

Post #: 41

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 6:10:47 PM

janh

Posts: 1140
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
Yeah, the whole point of the advice to "win the Battle of New Caledonia" is the possibility of achieving a meaningful victory over the Allies on favorable odds, thus postponing the Allied juggernaut.� If he loses, of course it's bad news.� But in July '42 shouldn't the Japanese�seize a chance to thrash the Allies under favorable conditions? Chances generally don't improve as the game goes on. If not now, when?

I fully agree. Now or never. It will be 9-12 month before the Allied CV force will again be a serious threat (i.e. what about the British flattops in your game...?), and until then I would seek opportunities. And this one seems present, and it has strong strategic implications.

It will force your opponent to commit his navy and air force, or loose very valuable assets, some of the few he has at this stage to himself stage something more than a raid of minor impact. You have the initiative here, and with KB you can keep it -- which raises chances that he could make mistakes. You can make this the battlefield of your own choosing, and have him fight at your odds. Looking at Efate and what parts of the map you show, and considering that he lacks CV support, it doesn't look like this would any longer be the spot of his choosing, where he'd place more units now. Depending on the next 4 weeks and his supply situation, I wouldn't even be surprised if you'd note him sneaking out elements.

Chickenboy certainly has good points there, and maybe the probability to survive longer for the Empire increase somewhat if you'd cut the losses now and leave "Dunkirk style", but I would always agree with those that advocate more aggressive, bolder stances. Just makes for a more interesting game I find, and it would be more in line with my typical thinking. It's the initiative you'd surrender with that now, and offer a psychological victory, both if which I believe you don't yet have to give away that cheap from what you explained. It seems to early to turtle. This whole affair can be turned into much more than a purely tactic battle with little to now implications elsewhere -- it depends on your opponents reaction. Noumea with its large airfields and port is key to the Coral and Solomon seas, and a good threat to the LOC into the Australian EC ports, and a thorn in the side for any major offensive through this region.

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 42

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 6:31:44 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

Posts: 306
Joined: 9/6/2004
Status: online

I definitely don't want to overstay my welcome on Noumea if I win (or lose) this battle. And yes, maybe i should not have landed there without ensuring surprise, but I did and now "I'm knee deep in it."

I know the Japanese player "loses" in the end no matter what. But like the Eastern Front games, if i can hold them off till 1946 or inflict way higher historical pain, that could be a victory. In this case, it could be a bloody grind for the Allies if he loses 2 divisions, 2 regiments and a dozen support units this early in 1942. He's already lost maybe 2-4 CV's and a lot of cruisers. Plus it will be a psychological blow-- my opponent was very annoyed after I "won" the Battle of Midway and smashed his first resupply convoy to Noumea. A loss at New Caledonia may bring FDR to the negotiating table.

The KB, 2 divisions, several base forces and a host of engineers are leaving Truk to fortify and buildup the islands around New Caledonia. Mavis float planes are flying engineers into Tulagi, and once that airfield is ready they'll be enough bases to ferry Oscars & Zeroes in. My subs have sunk two APD's trying to get in, but at least 2 AVD's have entered Noumea, and probably more. He admitted he snuck a whole division in after my landing at Koumac and the KB's failed attempt to gain air superiority over Noumea.

The hardest tactical part may be getting my BB's in to pulverize Noumea without losing them to mines or the 36 SB Dauntlesses and LBA he has at Noumea. Also establishing the right HQs. Should i have all divisions assigned to the same 16th army HQ? Or Southern Army (transporting it from Singapore now, will take a while to get there). I have 100,000 supply loaded on AK's too, and all the fuel from the DEI is being routed to Truk.

It may be a little while longer before anything exciting happens, given the transport times and my opponent may only get a few turns in this next week (we usually get 1-3 a day).

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Post #: 43

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 6:31:58 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Seems to me the destruction of two Arried divisions DOES rise to the level of a strategic goal in the sense that it would delay future Arried offensives. There are other US Army divisions, of course, but they some have to be released from restricted commands. I do agree with Alfred's point that the loss of Noumea is no serious blow to the Arries. You just send everything bound for Oz, South of New Zealand.

Furthermore, if the USN is really down to one carrier and he is able to bait that carrier into a fight near Noumea under conditions favorable to Japan, then the USN would have nothing but CVE's until Mid 1943. Configuring the details of a carrier fight near Noumea is an operational issue but taking out the last USN CV is absolutely a strategic goal.

Nor do I think Japan needs 4 divisions. What they need is about 2 divisions, 150 Aviation support, an Air HQ, 3 big AE's, 2-3 BB's, 80 or so Zeroes, soem Sallys and 1 Daitai of Bettys and a bunch of subs. If Lunga is owned they could stick 2 CV's there and sortie them if needed.

Not a trivial force, of course but it does seem better to me to have a fight against F4F's and once carrier in July 42 than vs. Hellcats aand Corsairs and 4 carriers in mid 43

(in reply to Canoerebel)

Post #: 44

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 6:41:44 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 14882
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Yeah, the whole point of the advice to "win the Battle of New Caledonia" is the possibility of achieving a meaningful victory over the Allies on favorable odds, thus postponing the Allied juggernaut.� If he loses, of course it's bad news.� But in July '42 shouldn't the Japanese�seize a chance to thrash the Allies under favorable conditions? Chances generally don't improve as the game goes on. If not now, when?

The OP has indicated that the Allies have AT LEAST 1000 AV (3+ full Allied IDs) at Noumea. One must presume that they've been digging and have some base force support with engineers along with aviation support. The OP has indicated that Noumea forts are at least 3 at this time. Don't know their level of preparation for Noumea, but i'd guess that it's more than '0'-which is where all of the IJ units pictured are with regards to unit preparation.

The OP has indicated that he's already been surprised (twice) by the Allied Noumea AV. He originally thought it was 400, only to subsequently discover it was, with reinforcement >1000. The OP has indicated that, at this time, he has about 1000 AV available to fight near Noumea.

So:

1. Are these 'favorable conditions' for the Japanese? Is a stand-up 1:1 (raw AV) fight against entrenched and prepared opponents (probably <1:2 after adjustments) 'favorable conditions'? Remember that the OP believes Noumea to be > fort level 3 at this point and heavily mined.

2. Are there any other unpleasant recon surprises awaiting the Japanese on Noumea? If they can underestimate by 2.5x the defensive capabilities of the Allies on Noumea, what's the next shoe to drop? Where are the nearest Allied defensive LCUs that may be brought into the theatre?

3. Screenshots showed sparse coverage of Japanese interdiction forces near Noumea. If the OP is serious about interdicting Allied replenishment / resupply, far more than three measly submarines will be needed for naval interdiction.

4. Looks like Koumac's airfields are leveled. You've lost the air initiative it seems. Your efforts to land large reinforcements are likely to come under attack from Noumea-based LBA, if your enemy is thinking ahead. Similarly, your ability to interdict his resupply TFs is limited without surface or carrier forces in the field. OP: can you comment on this further?

5. Is it reasonable to assume that the Allies will allow 3 full IDs plus support to be starved out (devoid of supplies) so close to Brisbane? Is it reasonable to assume that the Allies will allow 3 IDs plus support to be starved out in the absence of a naval blockade and in the absence of an aerial threat to resupply?

On balance, I'd say that the OP got it right the first time around. It looks like the Allies drew a line in the sand at Noumea and held it. The Japanese MAY be able to force the issue at tremendous expense at Noumea. It would take months of blood, toil and treasure. The Japanese may also lose New Caledonia and-in so losing it-successfully reinforce failure, a classic (and historic) Japanese move.

OP: Your easy conquests are going to be few and far between now. Think about the rest of the game and how your otherwise squandered forces on New Caledonia (and Truk) could be used to the defense of your Empire moving forward. I think your initial thoughts are close to the mark.

Get your troops out intact and deploy in a more meaningful position of your choosing. Maybe setting up your MLR > 20 hexes from Brisbane is a good place to start?

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Post #: 45

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 6:42:45 PM

Cap Mandrake

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From: Southern California
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BTW, if he is going to let you sit there at La Foa, you can build up that too. You will be amazed what can be accomplished with a BB bombardment shuttle from Koumac. Kirishima on Monday...Nagato on Tuesday....Yamashiro on Wednesday....lather, rinse repeat. The BB's go in at night and can almost make it back to Koumac the same day where they get LRCAP. Meanwhile the next BB is on it's way the next night. Kirishima refuels and rearms while Yamashiro is inbound on the third night. 3 nights of that and the airfield is pretty well smashed with dozens of damaged planes.

It's a meat grinder.

(in reply to Cap Mandrake)

Post #: 46

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 6:46:50 PM

Chickenboy

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Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: online

Just read an update from the OP with hitherto unreported information. Can you please elaborate on enemy LBA at Noumea? "Just" 36 DBs or "Just" 36 DBs + fighter support plus recon? You've not given us any information on his disposition.

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Post #: 47

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 6:57:18 PM

Bullwinkle58

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Whatever the OP does or doesn't do, I just wanted to say that this thread is a refreshing reminder of what this forum used to be like all the time.

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The Moose

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Post #: 48

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 7:05:45 PM

Cap Mandrake

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Evel: Hey guys, I think I am going to drive real fast around the rim of the Grand Canyon. What size engine do you think I should use?

Guys: Dood, you should like put rockets on the bike and try to jump over! That would be WAAAY cooler and more manly!

(in reply to leehunt27@bloomberg.net)

Post #: 49

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 7:12:44 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

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Joined: 9/6/2004
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hi Chickenboy-- the Alllies have at least 24 P-39 fighters at Noumea, 36 SB Dauntlesses. They also have about 24 B-26 Marauders flying out of Fiji, and some B-24 liberators coming from Oz i believe. One intel report said 100 fighters at Noumea, and frankly, i believe it. F-4 Lightnings have also been spotted over the islands near Caledonia, though i'm not sure where they are coming from.

I think either way i'm going to have to buildup the area around New Caledonia-- to evacuate or to attack further. A midnight Dunkirk style exit will probably be mauled.

< Message edited by leehunt27@bloomberg.net -- 2/13/2013 7:15:40 PM >

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John 21:25

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Post #: 50

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 7:17:23 PM

Blind Sniper

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Even if you are thinking to retreat you have to mitigate Noumea threat, a lot of feedbacks to think about.

In the meantime you can listen this song: Should I stay or should I go (Clash)

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Advanced Squad Leader (ASL); War in the Pacific: Admiral's Edition (WitP-AE)

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Post #: 51

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 8:38:14 PM

Uncivil Engineer

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Joined: 2/22/2012
From: Florida, USA
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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

and the overall situation in this game:

Why do you have over 6000 political points? There are some well-trained divisions in Korea/Manchukuo which can be bought out/brought out. They are a long way from the Solomons, but can be used elsewhere.

Another factor that has been totally over looked in all this commentary is what will your Allied opponent do in reaction to your moves? He has lost at least as many carriers (2) as USN did historically by Jul 42, and maybe more, while you have lost 2 vs. 4 historically. If he loses more within the next 2 months, he has a big problem. If he decides on a passive defense of Noumea, only running in supplies without troop reinforcement, what might he do with those troops? I would start marching up the Gilbert and Marshall Islands, for as you said they can't be well defended. How would you counter that? I suspect he can hold out at Noumea a fairly long time with only occasional resupply. If he tries to reinforce Noumea with troops it's critical that they not reach the port, sink their transports on the way in, cause if you don't, he wins. He only needs to add 1 division for every 2 or 3 additionsl you bring.

You need to do whatever it is he least expects. Only he can answer that, but you probably have a better idea than any of the rest of us. You didn't plan on doing an AAR, but we're all very interested in how this works out. Good luck.

(in reply to leehunt27@bloomberg.net)

Post #: 52

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/13/2013 10:25:13 PM

Encircled

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If PDU is off, those F-4's will be recon aircraft

I can't see how, over a period of three months, with the right support, how the Japanese can't win this, pull out their troops, and win a victory, with the destruction of 2 Allied Divisions and lots of aircraft.

Its a win/win for me, it could set back the allies for six months

< Message edited by Encircled -- 2/13/2013 10:26:17 PM >

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Post #: 53

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/14/2013 2:08:16 AM

Tophat1812

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

If PDU is off, those F-4's will be recon aircraft

I can't see how, over a period of three months, with the right support, how the Japanese can't win this, pull out their troops, and win a victory, with the destruction of 2 Allied Divisions and lots of aircraft.

Its a win/win for me, it could set back the allies for six months

I agree with you. This is a gift with the information presented so far.

If there are 3+ allied divisions on the island that changes things indeed. Now in July 42' with 3+ allied divisions trapped and all the allied air support coming from one airfield the capture of New Caledonia is the strategic goal. What is the level of the Luganville airfield? What base-force support do you have there? Can you run down and list the airbase levels you have on the islands in the area?

Also can you post some screens of your Burma,DEI and Kendari Darwin areas?

(in reply to Encircled)

Post #: 54

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/14/2013 7:53:45 AM

obvert

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Whatever the OP does or doesn't do, I just wanted to say that this thread is a refreshing reminder of what this forum used to be like all the time.

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Post #: 55

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/14/2013 8:26:24 AM

janh

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Whatever the OP does or doesn't do, I just wanted to say that this thread is a refreshing reminder of what this forum used to be like all the time.

+1
The fun of speculating... A few months later, if all advice has proven to be worse than poor, someone will say ... "See, I told you so...".

Alfred's point about the implications of this campaign or theater does bring up some more questions... To truly see what sense it makes, and whether it has any strategic impact or might already be reduced to a minor tactical engagement when the tide has already turned, one would need to see the rest of the map and judge it within the big picture. It seems Lee has done so for himself already -- and he seems to know his opponent, which might be just as important. if a victory at Noumea could crush his morale, it might gain you a lot of time before the Allied Juggernaut gains speed. And likely it will not come the long way through this theater if you create good interlocking bases -- perhaps you might be able to "engineer" his PAC strategies somewhat?

Particularly the Indian/Burmese AO would be important to know... and the question about the better armored British CV? If the Allied HC decided to join those with the remaining Allied CV, and add some CVE, he could spring a nasty surprise somewhere... That would be a critical factor for me here.

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Post #: 56

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/14/2013 1:27:27 PM

leehunt27@bloomberg.net

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updates on the other theaters, Burma, Alaska etc to follow. I would say i'm weak in Burma but i have 6,000 political points and plenty of divisions i can transfer out of China/Manchukuo. I was saving those points to start putting whole divisions on the Marianas etc-- so that any island within bombing range of Japan would probably have at least a full division on it by late 1943.

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Post #: 57

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/14/2013 4:17:18 PM

Lokasenna

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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

updates on the other theaters, Burma, Alaska etc to follow. I would say i'm weak in Burma but i have 6,000 political points and plenty of divisions i can transfer out of China/Manchukuo. I was saving those points to start putting whole divisions on the Marianas etc-- so that any island within bombing range of Japan would probably have at least a full division on it by late 1943.

When I finally got around to looking at the stats of the combat units in Manchuria last week, I noticed that some of the divisions are 80+ Exp! Those should be a high priority for those PPs, I'd say.

(in reply to leehunt27@bloomberg.net)

Post #: 58

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/14/2013 4:24:42 PM

Chickenboy

Posts: 14882
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
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quote:

ORIGINAL: leehunt27@bloomberg.net

updates on the other theaters, Burma, Alaska etc to follow. I would say i'm weak in Burma but i have 6,000 political points and plenty of divisions i can transfer out of China/Manchukuo. I was saving those points to start putting whole divisions on the Marianas etc-- so that any island within bombing range of Japan would probably have at least a full division on it by late 1943.

Lee,

Your banked PP are ~6,500. ~6,500 PP represents ~130 days of saving PPs. It would buy you ~3.5 divisions @ ~1800 PP/ division (around 1350 AV).

Yet you have already withdrawn ~2000+ AV from Manchuko (based upon your opening screen-Kwangtun province starts with some 12,500 AV at game start IIRC)? 2000 AV is about 4.5-5.0 division equivalents (DE). 4.5-5.0 DE x 1800PP/DE = 8100-9000 PP or 162-180 days of PP accumulation.

Putting the two together-what has already been withdrawn (162-180 days PP cost) with what you have banked (160 days banked) = 322-340 days PP. But you've only been at war some 7 months (~210 days). This is assuming that every political point you've squirreled away since the game's initiation has gone exclusively to buying out infantry AV units from Manchuko or being saved. Something's not adding up here.

It appears as though you have moved AV out of Manchuko without paying the PP for them. What are your house rules for this?

If you are not paying PPs to move Manchuko garrison LCUs throughout the Asian landmass, then you can use those to go to Burma. You need not pay PP for them if, in fact, that's not in your game rules.

If it is in your game rules (PP payment for movement across national borders-a common HR), might I suggest you review your force disposition across China? You may have inadvertently breached your HRs without your opponent's knowledge. You may need to 'retrograde buy' these units to keep the peace, if you get my drift. I'd recommend keeping your opponent informed of your rationale and actions.

If you have no HR on moving these Manchuko units, then I suggest you do so forthwith. Use the 2500 AV you have in Manchuko (anything >8,000 AV in Manchuko is at your disposal) to move at your will. This is 5.5 DE in strength. A helpful bastion for Burma / Malayan defense.

If you need to use your available PP to 'buy' these units (getting them on ships off of the Asian continent) this will 'buy' you some 3.5 DE.

So, these are the choices available to you:

1. Review your HRs and 'restructure' your force disposition to stay in line with your HRs (if necessary).
2. Move 5.5 DE out of Manchuko elsewhere onto the Asian continent (Burma defense) at no PP cost (HR dependent).
3. Move 3.5 DE out of China / Manchuko elsewhere in the Empire to buttress your defense.

But I can't help but notice that you haven't *done* any of these things yet. It's all well and good to talk about what you could do with your PP and where your theoretical priorities are, but until you actually execute and deliver, it's just so much ethereal thinking.

PP can't fight. PP can't capture or hold ground or destroy the enemy. Available units in Manchuko aren't available units in New Caledonia. Until they are, they aren't.

Long-winded reply. Sorry. It appears as though we need a little more information from you about your game to help you further.

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Post #: 59

RE: Strategic dilemma- looking for some advice - 2/14/2013 4:28:23 PM

Q-Ball

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From: Chicago, Illinois
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Just read all this, very good advice, and I'll summarize what I think is a maxim in WITP-AE:

If you control the skies and seas around a base, then you will inevitably control the base. It's only a matter of time.

Build-up LaFoa and Koumac with an AIR HQ, you don't even need CVs around. As long as Noumea airfield is closed, bringing in supplies would result in nothing more than sunk Allied ships.

(in reply to Lokasenna)

Post #: 60