The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

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Canoerebel
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The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Memorial Church
Stanford University
Palo Alto, California
22 November 1940


“We’re out of time, John. We’ve been shortsighted. Foolishly shortsighted. And now we’re out of time.”

Rear Admiral Walter S. Anderson looked discouraged and tired. He sat stiffly in an uncomfortable pew, eyes closed, basking in diffused-but-colorful light streaming in through a stained-glass window. The 59-year-old Director of Naval Intelligence was fretting over the unimaginable turn of events during the past four years.

“First the Great Depression. Then the unilateral repudiation of the Washington Treaty. Then the Roscoe Filburn Rebellion. The hardliners and isolationists got their way. Japan called our bluff and drew an inside straight. Budget cuts forced reductions in staffing and sharply limited intelligence operations. Our information about the Japanese navy is dated. I have reason to believe our assessments are wildly inaccurate, seriously – dramatically – underestimating the number of capital ships. Japan has been very, very busy the last two years, and now they’re coming for us. We know they are, but we don’t know how hard they can come.”

Commander (Ret.) John Harper knew what Anderson meant. The United States, embroiled in civil strife since the riots provoked by the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1938, had turned inward, focusing on restoring order and getting a handle on economy. In doing so, the nation had let down its guard. Budget cuts had forced reductions in staff and sharply reduced intelligence operations, leaving the Navy almost blind. And it had happened at the worst possible moment.

For the first time since they had entered the church 10 minutes earlier, Harper spoke: “When I retired in ’38, Admiral, we knew that the Japanese had laid down keels for at least four additional cruisers and three carriers. Do I understand you correctly? We don’t have any additional information on those ships since then? We have no idea whether they have been completed, nor how many more might be underway?”

“That’s it, John. We know very little about their navy,” Anderson admitted. “And it doesn’t stop there. We suspect Japan accelerated research into more advanced fighters. We also think they’re expanding the army. The extent of our ignorance is revealed by two other concerns. Are the Japanese developing four-engine, long-range bombers? I can tell you that Lt. Commander Sturmhund thinks they are. And have the Japanese developed long-range patrol aircraft that can be launched from and recovered by submarines?”

“Sturmhund was always rather excitable on that subject,” Harper said, smiling briefly. “I doubt the Japanese will engage in strategic bombing on a scale that we might be capable of if we get our heads on straight. But I worked on the sub-launched patrol plane assessment. I’m telling you I think they’ve done it. Those patrol planes are fast and can remain aloft an entire day. I think the Japs can park a sub anywhere in the Pacific and cover 360 degrees out to a radius of 100 miles in 12 hours. It’s crazy. It sounds like the kind of thing Sturmhund would dream up. But I think the Japanese have that capability.”

“Then we need to pause a moment, John. Let's make use of this handsome facility. It’s past time we started praying.”
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Rodeo Beach
Sausalito, California
29 November 1940


Rear Admiral Walter S. Anderson made his decision against a backdrop of booming surf. A winter storm was moving ashore, roiling the Pacific Ocean into a frothy maelstrom. He was here to walk. To think. To sort through things before his promotion took effect.

Naval Intelligence, Anderson reflected, needed Harper. Two years ago, Harper had left the Navy to teach history at Stanford University. But now, since the unfortunate – unbelievable, actually – demise of Rear Admiral Cochran, Harper had become indispensible to the Navy. He was the only one familiar with Cochran’s widely discredited analysis of Japanese military capabilities. Since Cochran had died in a freak Ferris wheel accident, however, Harper must be brought back to active duty, willing or not.

Cochran’s report was the nightmare imaginings of a Poe-like opium fiend, Anderson thought. We all figured he suffered some kind of psychotic childhood fantasy involving ships Japan couldn’t build, airplanes Japan couldn’t could fly, unstoppable divisions that Japan couldn’t muster, and god-like omniscience about the American military that no mortal could have.

Anderson wondered whether Cochran might have been some kind of savant. Where had he gotten his information? Anderson wasn’t sure, but made a mental note to put his hand’s on Cochran’s report, “Reluctant Admiral.” He’d read it. Then he’d make the phone call that would bring Harper back into the fold.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Houtje »

Here's looking forward to another great AAR; good luck to both of you!
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Rodeo Beach
Sausalito, California
29 November 1940

Curious. Why would a Pacific Ocean storm be roiling the waves on the Eastern side of the Marin Peninsula? Sausalito sees very little wave action because of its protective positioning. The Marin 'headlands' or the Stinson beach area would be more prone to heavy surf.

Now, there is a Rodeo Cove on the Western side of the Marin Peninsula, but it's not in Sausalito. [:)]

Already enjoying your AAR, CR. I'm on board. [&o]
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by obvert »

I'm in.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Headquarters Building
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
4 April 1941

Commander John Cole Harper flipped through the stack of telegrams and letters piled on his desk.

There were well wishes from his students, like good ol' Houtje, a transfer student from the Netherlands.  Houtje hoped the trip from San Francisco to Pearl Harbor had gone well and that he (Harper) wouldn't miss the academic world too much. 

Another student wrote a more caustic missive.  This student, Harper recalled, had been dubbed "Poultry Lad" by roughhousing dorm mates who liked to pin him to the floor, pull his legs, and then cast erotic wishes for weekend conquests.  Harper glanced through the letter and noted that "PL" was expressing some confusion over the location of Rodeo Beach.  In a lecture earlier that year, Harper had offhandedly noted that the beach was "in Sausalito," to give students a general reference point.  PL, however, had insisted that Sausalito was on the bay side while Rodeo was on the ocean side.

Harper tossed PL's letter aside, deciding he probably didn't have the necessary time to clarify things for the bright yet eccentric student.

Then Harper flipped through the pile of intelligence assessments on his desk.  There were crytpic requests for information about obscure places like Socatra and Coal Harbor (did anybody really think the latter - a small port at the north tip of Vancouver Island - could play a key role in a Pacific War?).  There were summaries of the new Australian coastwatcher program that seemed to hold much promise.  There were the usual troop deployment suggestions, ranging from a need for base force personnel in Darwin to artillery at Pago Pago.  And there were the big questions:  Whether to reinforce Singapore.  How to supply the Chinese.  Where to send the American carriers.

Harper set the paperwork aside.  He was anxious to begin work on Fleet Problem XXI, but first he had to dress for a dinner aboard the Colorado.  That wasn't such a bad way to re-immerse himself in the Navy.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Cribtop »

Woo Hoo! Well, Dan, given John's reputation you should finally get your wish of being pushed to the wall.

This time I'm fully in on your AAR and will reluctantly (pun intended) avoid reading John's. We can try guess his crazy schemes together!

Lt. Commander Stormhund indeed. Nice.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by ny59giants »

Opposite of Cribtop, I'll say good luck to you now Dan and restrict myself to John's AAR. Somebody has to keep a short leash on him. [:D]
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Chickenboy »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
In a lecture earlier that year, Harper had offhandedly noted that the beach was "in Sausalito," to give students a general reference point.  PL, however, had insisted that Sausalito was on the bay side while Rodeo was on the ocean side.

No. The lecture in question was dated November 1940. Harper can't presuppose PL's harassment in his April missives, can he? If so, he is a truly gifted intelligence officer.

What month are we in? What year are we in? Are we facing East or West? I'm so confused...
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Harper, like Anderson, was given to referring to the location of Rodeo Beach as "Sausalito" since that's the closest town and an easy reference point for all except crazed Golden Gophers.
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by pws1225 »

Good luck CR, but as a dedicated JFB, not too much I hope. This should be a great game. Have fun.

Regards, Paul
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Headquarters
Pearl Harbor Naval Station
8 July 1941
 
Harper leaned back, rubbed his eyes, and ran a quick mental check of the wargames he had participated in since returning to active duty.

There were the matches against opponents dubbed "Q-Ball," "Chez," and "PzH."  Each had been challenging.  Each had taken wildly improbable turns that few believed could be replicated in a real war.

Q-Ball, Harper recalled, had even invaded India.  That was a silly notion, yet it proved difficult for the "Allies" to stop.  Things had looked pretty bleak, but eventually the Allies turned the tables and appeared likely to win the war.  That particular war game had ended prematurely when Q-Ball had been reassigned to work on a war game focused on a mythical clash between Russia and Germany.

Chez had proved conservative, allowing the Allies to turn Sumatra into a tremendous redoubt.  That was so ridiculous that the officer commanding that match had it terminated.

The contest against PzH had proven as entertaining as it was unlikely.  That was the occasion in which odd places like Coal Harbor and Cocos Island had proven so important.  Under mysterious circumstances, though, PzH had been recalled from active duty, thus ending the match before anything decisive had taken place.  Last report was that he had been billeted to a post in Stockholm.

Now Harper was about to engage in a match to test Cochran's old Reluctant Admiral hypothesis.  Harper was familiar with the scenario, in general, but knew he would have to take time to memorize the order of battle.  And what about the opponent?  Harper knew he was as aggressive as Q-Ball and PzH, but believed there were some weaknesses that might be exploited.  He began jotting down this thoughts:

a.  As always, China will be a target.  And yet, probably not on the level of PzH.  The "Japanese commander" will fight for the usual cities, but probably doesn't have the interest level to go "all out" in China.  He's a sea war guy.  Not a land war guy.  That's good.

b.  He'll go all out in the Pacific.  That's where his heart is.  With his ships.  He likes the Aleutians.  He likes Samoa.  He loves New Caledonia.  He's coming.  Decide whether to meet him or fight elsewhere.

c.  He'll be organized, especially early.  He'll roll through the Philippines, Malaya, and Burma in good order.  But these theaters offer opportunties to sting and stymie.

d.  He is prone, at times, to overcomit to places he wants but doesn't necessarily need.  Identify a few places to "over protect" to frustrate him.  Cocos Island in the Indian Ocean is a prime possibility.

e.  He likes to split his carriers.  This can kill him.  Does he have enough "extra goodies" in Reluctant Admiral to cover this weakness?  Possibly.

f.  Auto Victory:  Not nearly as likely as the games against Q-Ball and PzH.  Too aggressive giving the Allies too many points.  I think. 

"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Houtje »

I wonder, does the title of your AAR refer to the ethical theories of ancient Stoicism? I.e., only the soul is either good or bad, and all other things (health, life, possessions etc.) are indifferent.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

[X(]
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Houtje »

I'm guessing 'no', then. [:D] Just one of those coincidences.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by BBfanboy »

More likely a reference to the Clint Eastwood "spaghetti western" [i.e. made in Italy] movie "The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly". You may not be familiar with it if you are young or if it was never offered with a Dutch translation.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Canoerebel »

Houtje, I was so struck by your question that I'll be mulling it over for hours.  Maybe days.
 
Okay, so that's the Stoics?  How about the Epicureans?
 
BBFanboy is right, though.  This is a play off the old Clint Eastwood movie for no other reason than I liked the sound of it.  :)  Kind of puts me in my place, though.  Some people are thinking on the level of ancient Greek philosophies.  I'm operating on the level of a spaghetti western.  (But a good movie with an awesome sound track.)
"Rats set fire to Mr. Cooper’s store in Fort Valley. No damage done." Columbus (Ga) Enquirer-Sun, October 2, 1880.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by pws1225 »

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Okay, so that's the Stoics?  How about the Epicureans?

The good, the fat, the sleepy?
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by Houtje »

Ah, yes of course: that movie is actually a favourite of mine ("You dig.") Well, to summarize the Epicureans and further derail this thread: only pleasure is good, only pain is bad.
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

Post by jeffk3510 »

Looking forward, as always!

Dan..I was trying to get some trucks home from your area today...boy howdy I had a blast...[:'(]
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