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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 9:30:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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That's interesting, but that would be the best possible case for the Allies. It would leave open the sea lanes to Sabang and vicinity from Diego Garcia. I would just hang off the Sumatra coast to the west, keeping Sabang's airfield in between my carriers and his. Then he can't come out without traveling through narrow channels with the risk of facing my combat ships and subs.

No, he won't choose that course of action unless his highest priority is to rescue the Burma Army. If that's Job One for him, he migh come up the Malacca Straits, but I still think that's unlikely.

These are all possibilities, but I still think by far the most likely course is for John to come through the Indian Ocean. Fuso closing on Cocos per yesterday's SigInt is one piece of evidence strongly supporting that possibility.

Lots of uncertainty here, so it's alot of fun trying to guess.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 9:49:32 PM   
Flicker

 

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I'm reading both AARs, so no comments except that the Sumatra invasion caught me by surprise... Nicely played, my fellow Southerner.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 9:52:45 PM   
Nemo121


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So, just to check, after 5 days you do NOT have a base on mainland Malaysia - the islands off the coast don't count obviously.


As to Sumatra:
I've done it in a couple of games and I've had it done to me once. When I did it I transected Malaysia as part of the landings and pushed my forces into Malaysia, besieging Singapore and moving to Bangkok. This caused the utter collapse of Burma - IJA units ended up being airlifted out abandoning their heavy equipment - freeing the Indian army to enter the fray and really bring pressure to bear in Thailand - from whence I opened another land route to China. Singers was besieged for about 6 weeks until I got enough force together to take it. I had my force allocation pretty much the opposite of CR though. I landed in August/September and brought about 10 divisions. I spread one throughout Sumatra and launched 6 to Malaysia/Singers with the other 3 marching up to Bangkok- meeting up with British Indian forces. After all Sumatra is only a minor strategic victory. To unhinge the entire Front you need to follow it up with another strategic leap - Malaysia is that leap.

When I faced it I simply kept KB in the Malacca straits - which is NOT the poorest of the options as some here say but actually the strongest possible option... why?
1. Assume that any losses to submarines will be attritional and not decisive ( and surround KB with ASW TFs ).

2. KB's job is NOT to sink CVs or even transports. Its job is simply to stop the Allies landing supplies in Sumatra. This means KB's job is simply to survive and pose a threat which can pounce out whenever the Allies are spotted.

3. IJAAF and IJNAF bombers bombed every airfield in Sumatra into the stone age. It cost me in fighters lost in sweeps but it was a price worth paying. This wrote down his supplies.

4. I marshalled my tank forces in Malaysia along with some inf divisions and then launched them across the straits with the support of ALL of KB and every IJAAF and IJNAF bomber on the map. The enemy division guarding the base I wanted basically evaporated and my tank units pursued.

5. He got desperate and tried to rush troops in - by this time I had a land base and KB simply waited for his transports to begin unloading, ignoring his CVs. When the transports reached a port KB unleashed, along with the IJAAF. The result was the supplies and most reinforcements were sunk/drowned.

6. SC TFs tried to interdict KB. Every time this happened they ran into one of my screening TFs. I lost ships but every ship he had damaged was sunk by Netties or KB the next day. The guts of the RN was sunk trying to interfere with KB.

By the time it was over he only had cadres from about 6 divisions, had lost a half-dozen BBs and I riposted and took Ceylon. Of course I had left Sumatra poorly garrisoned as part of a maskirovka wherein I wanted him to invade as I wanted to take Ceylon but didn't want him being able to counter-invade. So I used Sumatra to destroy the forces he would need for this mission and then took Ceylon and held it till '44.

I doubt John will stick to the Malacca straits. He'll seek battle and the sinking of ships ( in the Indian Ocean ) and thus miss effecting the strategic critical point --- while paying lip service to it ... as is his normal wont.

< Message edited by Nemo121 -- 6/27/2013 9:54:25 PM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 10:01:06 PM   
pws1225

 

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He has Alor Star.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 10:07:58 PM   
Olorin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's interesting, but that would be the best possible case for the Allies. It would leave open the sea lanes to Sabang and vicinity from Diego Garcia. I would just hang off the Sumatra coast to the west, keeping Sabang's airfield in between my carriers and his. Then he can't come out without traveling through narrow channels with the risk of facing my combat ships and subs.

No, he won't choose that course of action unless his highest priority is to rescue the Burma Army. If that's Job One for him, he migh come up the Malacca Straits, but I still think that's unlikely.

These are all possibilities, but I still think by far the most likely course is for John to come through the Indian Ocean. Fuso closing on Cocos per yesterday's SigInt is one piece of evidence strongly supporting that possibility.

Lots of uncertainty here, so it's alot of fun trying to guess.


I'm not saying that's the course John would choose, but the one he should (imho) choose. You have the SigInt, far better knowledge of john than me (us) and other information which we don't know to make your guesses much more likely to be right.

IIRC, KB has the range to attack your shipping on the "west" side of Sumatra while being in the Malacca straight. That positioning completely cuts off your Malaya SLOCs (which should be Job One imho) and threatens your Sumatra SLOCs enough to necessitate carrier support until your airfields are developed. It also gives him a free reign to bombard and counter-invade Malaya and the "eastern" coast of Sumatra with everything he is got.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121
When I faced it I simply kept KB in the Malacca straits - which is NOT the poorest of the options as some here say but actually the strongest possible option... why?
1. Assume that any losses to submarines will be attritional and not decisive ( and surround KB with ASW TFs ).

2. KB's job is NOT to sink CVs or even transports. Its job is simply to stop the Allies landing supplies in Sumatra. This means KB's job is simply to survive and pose a threat which can pounce out whenever the Allies are spotted.

3. IJAAF and IJNAF bombers bombed every airfield in Sumatra into the stone age. It cost me in fighters lost in sweeps but it was a price worth paying. This wrote down his supplies.


This is what I basically wanted to say, but Nemo said it better. The risk from subs and SC TF is acceptable, considering the circumstances John is in, and certainly smaller than chasing your carriers in neutral waters.


< Message edited by Olorin -- 6/27/2013 10:12:40 PM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 10:10:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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Hey, Nemo, you're wrong (but only in insignificant ways that don't detract from your larger point).

Your comment was that the Allies have to take a base on Malaya within five days of the fall of Sabang. We're only four days out, the Allies have landed at Alor Star, and have twice attacked. It won't fall on day five, but a fresh brigade is coming ashore. There's a chance.

One factor that affected the operation is that 27th USA Div. (in combat mode and on amphibious ships) came ashore in strat mode, somehow. It will be ready for action tomorrow. Paratroops will also be available tomorrow or the day after. So the Allies will continue to work on Alor Star.

Supply isn't a near term problem for the Allies. There's 200k ashore at Sabang, with more coming in. The limit is 53k, so I think the waste will be pretty significant until the airfield goes to level four in four or five days.

I knew John had at least ten divisions in Burma and plenty more scattered around New Guinea (plus 7th Div. in the Aluetians). This plan has been predicated on that knowledge - that marshalling his troops and getting them to Sumatra is going to be a tough, tough battle. And he's not going to win the air war or the combat TF war unless he first wins a decisive carrier battle. The Allies have too many good fighters and combat ships available and the Japanese navy has been attritioned considerably over the past two months. Not to the point of being inferior, by any means, but certainly not being in a position to overwhelm the Allies in a surface clash or sustained operations.

Ironfisted control of Sumatra is critical because it unhinges the Japanese position in Burma, which seems to have taken place. Yes, in your hands the Allies could have landed in Malaya in strength, in part because you would have planned it that way from the outset. I planned this for Sumatra from the outset, partly because Sumatra is important and partly because it had major repurcussions in Burma.

I'm just glad you don't get to remove me from command. I'm having too much fun. (And I'm also gaining more experience that will help me better foresee and plan for future operations. Until then, this will have to do.)


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 10:14:13 PM   
pws1225

 

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quote:

(And I'm also gaining more experience that will help me better foresee and plan for future operations. Until then, this will have to do.)


Hmm.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 10:15:34 PM   
Canoerebel


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I don't know. I just don't see John III coming up the Malacca Straits with carriers. Like many (not all) players, he seems to have an enhanced fear of subs, to the point that I've often seen him avoid going the straight way when he knows they're around. And I do think the Straits are bad news - currently, there are at least 20 subs there. John will know or guess that. With a big Allied airfield, minelayers (he's seen them) and lots of combat ships hanging around Sabang...well, I just don't see it. Not from John III. He will want sea room - room to maneuver - and I think many players would viscerally - or at least subconciously - feel the same.

So, you guys may be right, but my money is on the IO. If he comes through the Straits, though, I'll be glad, because I think that offers the strongest combination of factors for the Allies.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 10:15:43 PM   
witpqs

 

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4
quote:

One factor that affected the operation is that 27th USA Div. (in combat mode and on amphibious ships) came ashore in strat mode, somehow.


You really ought to send the 'before' save game to MichaelM.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 10:19:32 PM   
Canoerebel


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That's not the only time it's happened. I also had an Army RCT land the same way at Padang, which was a major factor in the decision to diver that force to Sibolga. I also had a strong contingent of 1st Marines evaporate from their beachhead at Langsa, but not sure that was a bug. Perhaps they got wiped out by attrition when my BBs bombarded the beachhead.

But overall these have been relatively minor things and, to me, fall within the realm of "weird things happen" to slow things down and alter plans. "No plan survives contact with the enemy" kind of stuff. Overall, the invasion has gone exceedingly well, so "what's done is done."

P.S. Okay, I hear you about sending a save to Michael. I suppose the turn before 27th Div. came ashore might be the one to send. Uh...how do I send a save to Michael?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/27/2013 10:39:29 PM   
witpqs

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

That's not the only time it's happened. I also had an Army RCT land the same way at Padang, which was a major factor in the decision to diver that force to Sibolga. I also had a strong contingent of 1st Marines evaporate from their beachhead at Langsa, but not sure that was a bug. Perhaps they got wiped out by attrition when my BBs bombarded the beachhead.

But overall these have been relatively minor things and, to me, fall within the realm of "weird things happen" to slow things down and alter plans. "No plan survives contact with the enemy" kind of stuff. Overall, the invasion has gone exceedingly well, so "what's done is done."

P.S. Okay, I hear you about sending a save to Michael. I suppose the turn before 27th Div. came ashore might be the one to send. Uh...how do I send a save to Michael?

Post the save (in a .zip file) in the tech support section. Start thread with the bug description makes sense.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 2:39:30 AM   
Canoerebel


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Don't weigh in on this unless your are "purely" an Allied AAR reader. :)




Attachment (1)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 2:53:20 AM   
Cribtop


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#1

He will probably send some surface forces up #2 as well.

Note how Phuket etc are useful to pose a potential air threat to doors #2 and 3.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 2:54:05 AM   
Cpt Sherwood

 

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#3 is the safe choice. #2 is the best choice. #1 could lead to IJN disaster( it's a long way to a good port ).

I think he will pick #1, he will want the apparent freedom of movement.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 4:20:55 AM   
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#4 Take the air squadrons off of the carriers and land them in Malaya. It has a longer reach than #3 and as good a reach as #2. Yet, there is no risk of losing a carrier. Your submarines would be neutralized. The use of inland and east-coast bases would also render your surface forces impotent.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 4:38:34 AM   
PaxMondo


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Not clue, but watching all the same!



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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 4:51:01 AM   
Justus2


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Were I playing, I would probably go with #3, my immediate concern is to protect the LOC from Burma-Malaya, and #3 lets me disrupt your landings along the Malay coast without risking KB. (Actually, I would probably do a combo of 3 and 4, staging some of my air forward to land bases to get there while your landings are still in progress).

But based on everything I've heard about John so far in this thread, I think #1 is more likely, he will want to force a CV vs CV battle, and it would appear more 'clever', swinging around behind you rather than directly through the straits of Malacca, which seems like it would appeal to him as well. Probably combined with a large SCTF push up the strait (actually I see that happening in any COA).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 5:22:19 AM   
Cribtop


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Thane, that #4 option is pretty interesting. Clever.

Again, note that taking Malay bases helps keep that option in check, too.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 5:30:09 AM   
Canoerebel


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I like the nominations, but Number 4 doesn't work. John can't impose any kind of blockade only using airfields in Malaya. (He already tried a variation of that in Burma for months, using many airfields close to Akyab, and didn't come close.) So # 3 and any close variation of it spells doom for him, IMO. He only does that if Burma and BB Mutsu have become a gnawing parasite on his good judgment.

It's gotta be # 1 or # 2 (or a close variation thereof, such as splitting of his CVEs).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 7:14:38 AM   
Encircled


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#3

#1 It is what you would expect (and looking at that screenshot, its your LBA's he's going to be tangling with. Why should he fight on your terms?

#2 though I don't know enough about carrier operations in this game regarding reactions, it strikes me as an excellent opportunity for CR to catch the KB with SCTFs.

I don't know John, but he must realise for an invasion of this magnitude that you've bought a lot of supplies, so even if he risks all on a carrier v carrier battle, its going to be some time before he can seriously affect your supply.

If he goes #3 (and everything about him that I read in this AAR suggests he won't), he can cut the SLOC's to Malaysia invasion (which he will be worried about the most, because of the possible ramifications) and gives him more SCTF's to threaten through the straits (due to not being worried about a surface action involving the KB).

Whatever happens, its going to be fun!

< Message edited by Encircled -- 6/28/2013 7:15:39 AM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 7:22:28 AM   
Nemo121


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CR,

Ok, so a bug stopped you getting Alor Star by Day 5, fair enough. It has to fall though, it is crucial.

As to what John will do. I am saying the smart play is to stick KB in the Malacca Straits. I think what John will do is send it into the Indian Ocean via the straits between Sumatra and Java (Option 1 ).

quote:

marshalling his troops and getting them to Sumatra is going to be a tough, tough battle.


Really? It looks fairly trivial to me. All he needs to do is sail them to the base north of Bengkalis and then march them up a lovely road/rail line. He can also shuttle forces across from Malaysia just 92 miles away if he wants with xAKLs which maximises their utility in small ports.


As to removing you from command. No, not at all. It is an operation which has achieved its strategic goals. I might however counsel you of the benefits of not just taking a thing but having an exploitation force ready to leap beyond it in order to really shake things loose but, really, you've exceeded, by far, what most people can do in-game and that must be recognised ( while also urging you to take that extra step ;) )

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 7:26:33 AM   
Nemo121


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The only problem with #4 is that it would invite "loitering" of transport TFs just outside of fighter escort range. If I were faced with that I'd dip in and out of fighter escort range with small DD-led TFs designed to be survivable vs torpedo bombers but also designed to be big enough to draw the Netties etc in. I'd LRCAP them from everything floating and on land and wreak a terrible slaughter. After a few weeks of that ( and remember anyone would bring enough supplies to last several months ) I'd wager the enemy pilot pools and plane pools would be so reduced that you'd be able to bring the transports in and cover them conventionally.

KB in the Malacca straits always allows the option of a sprint into the Indian Ocean clobbering any "loitering" TFs - thus preventing the above strategy from being employed to full effect.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 10:53:05 AM   
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Drop some mines in the base hex 'east' of Bengkalis

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 11:19:22 AM   
Kereguelen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Nemo121

So, just to check, after 5 days you do NOT have a base on mainland Malaysia - the islands off the coast don't count obviously.


As to Sumatra:
I've done it in a couple of games and I've had it done to me once. When I did it I transected Malaysia as part of the landings and pushed my forces into Malaysia, besieging Singapore and moving to Bangkok. This caused the utter collapse of Burma - IJA units ended up being airlifted out abandoning their heavy equipment - freeing the Indian army to enter the fray and really bring pressure to bear in Thailand - from whence I opened another land route to China. Singers was besieged for about 6 weeks until I got enough force together to take it. I had my force allocation pretty much the opposite of CR though. I landed in August/September and brought about 10 divisions. I spread one throughout Sumatra and launched 6 to Malaysia/Singers with the other 3 marching up to Bangkok- meeting up with British Indian forces. After all Sumatra is only a minor strategic victory. To unhinge the entire Front you need to follow it up with another strategic leap - Malaysia is that leap.



Not that easy with stacking limits. This approach worked pretty well without stacking limits, but while it is still doable with the right allocation of forces, it will take too long if the Japanese player can send 2-3 divisions + some brigades to Malaya.

But I think that (in this game) John will simply crush any invasions in Malaya. Well, at least it will delay his unevitable counterattack in Sumatra and thus the landing at Alor Star (if Canoe manages to take it) will not be a complete waste of assets.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 11:26:47 AM   
Canoerebel


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I'm not sayng 27th Div. coming ashore in strat mode stopped me from taking Alor Star; rather that it complicated everything just a bit. Not only did the division have to convert back to combat mode, but disablesments are extremely high. The division is only about 60% combat effective.

Ultimately, I think Keregueln is exactly right about what happens in Malaya and to my troops there. I think John will stymie my efforst to cut the roads. But if he has to concentrate there, leaving Sumatra less molested for days or a week or two, it is probably worth it. As it is right now, I have pretty much dispersed 18th UK Div. and she's gong to be in trouble long run (and John, I think, has done the same thing with Imperial Guards).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 12:46:47 PM   
catwhoorg


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I don't know which way John will come.

I know I would be coming through door #1.
Carriers need room. Straights are not their friends, and door #3 keeps the airgroups out of range of the most interesting stuff.

Door #4 could be possible as well.



In the modern era, with much higher ranges involved, then it would be Gulf of Siam all the way.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 12:54:29 PM   
JohnDillworth


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BTW, whats the plan in Burma? Is John packing up the plantation or just tightening his lines? Do you envision pushing to Rangoon and beyond or picking you folks up and using them elsewhere?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 12:56:59 PM   
JeffK


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I'll put my money on #1, but with a threat building up around Singapore to keep your eyes on the Straits of Malacca. There is plenty of space out there to sneak through and too many hexrs for you to cover.

There arent enough bases in range of Sabang (Fighter, DB & TB) to really threaten you, once you clear the rails your supply will flow without shipping.

Coming up through the Straits of Malacca means you can know where he has to transit, lots of this is only 1 hex wide plus a few bases he has to make sure he keeps out of. You have lots of subs that just might put a hole in something important.

Of course JIII may not play ball and set off to beat up on somewhere else now that a lot of your strength is around Sumatra?




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 2:39:49 PM   
Canoerebel


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John's not going anywhere else. He's coming for Sumatra. I'll stake everything on that. It's beyond "hunch" level. This is at the "certainty" level. And we've already seen the first evidences of that - Nagato and Ise at Singers and SigInt of Fuso bound for Cocos. There's also much more going on - a largescale movement of shipping through the Torres Straights and Timor Sea, for one. Allied subs have hit perhaps a half dozen ships in the past six or eight days and SBDs out of Cooktown have damaged or sunk at least five transports.

I see a largescale retrograde movement underway in Burma. Lots of dot arrows. John has already pulled back his main stack in the plains. What I'm anxious to see is if he pulls back 18th Div. from the coastal road. If he does, then Ramree suddenly becomes available to send forward troops to contribute to the effort. All across Burma, Allied units are moving forward, though those in the jungle are moving slowly.

(in reply to JeffK)
Post #: 2579
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/28/2013 3:31:33 PM   
Lomri

 

Posts: 227
Joined: 2/6/2009
Status: offline

As an Allied only reader (which makes all the opsec talk interesting) I'd say #1. #1 is the option you take when you think the other player isn't expecting it. It really is only a good choice if you think you'll achieve surprise. I can see how #2 might worry some for lack of room, but the chances of CR having flooded the area with PTs at this point is relatively low (and should be know-able based on nationality flag on bases). Barring that, subs are an issue but you gain LBA advantage and proximity to shipyards. You concentrate force. You can more quickly move back into your interior lines. I think the advantages vastly out weight the sub risk (with faulty torps!).

That strat move "bug" you encountered is interesting and I've never seen it. I think the community would be well served if you posted it in tech support in case it is something that can be addressed. It might be hard to troubleshoot though since the bug may have been created by how they were loaded many turns ago.

I've never heard of friendly fire from bombardment. Your explanation of your marines disappearing might be good role play but I don't think it is likely. If you have other pieces of that unit have you looked at the Organization of it to see if any fragments are in places you didn't expect?

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2580
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