From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Hey, Nemo, you're wrong (but only in insignificant ways that don't detract from your larger point).
Your comment was that the Allies have to take a base on Malaya within five days of the fall of Sabang. We're only four days out, the Allies have landed at Alor Star, and have twice attacked. It won't fall on day five, but a fresh brigade is coming ashore. There's a chance.
One factor that affected the operation is that 27th USA Div. (in combat mode and on amphibious ships) came ashore in strat mode, somehow. It will be ready for action tomorrow. Paratroops will also be available tomorrow or the day after. So the Allies will continue to work on Alor Star.
Supply isn't a near term problem for the Allies. There's 200k ashore at Sabang, with more coming in. The limit is 53k, so I think the waste will be pretty significant until the airfield goes to level four in four or five days.
I knew John had at least ten divisions in Burma and plenty more scattered around New Guinea (plus 7th Div. in the Aluetians). This plan has been predicated on that knowledge - that marshalling his troops and getting them to Sumatra is going to be a tough, tough battle. And he's not going to win the air war or the combat TF war unless he first wins a decisive carrier battle. The Allies have too many good fighters and combat ships available and the Japanese navy has been attritioned considerably over the past two months. Not to the point of being inferior, by any means, but certainly not being in a position to overwhelm the Allies in a surface clash or sustained operations.
Ironfisted control of Sumatra is critical because it unhinges the Japanese position in Burma, which seems to have taken place. Yes, in your hands the Allies could have landed in Malaya in strength, in part because you would have planned it that way from the outset. I planned this for Sumatra from the outset, partly because Sumatra is important and partly because it had major repurcussions in Burma.
I'm just glad you don't get to remove me from command. I'm having too much fun. (And I'm also gaining more experience that will help me better foresee and plan for future operations. Until then, this will have to do.)