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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/22/2013 9:54:35 PM   
Cribtop


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You sneaky little so and so. I considered but discounted this possibility because you had never done this sort of "in AAR" maskirovka before. I thought you'd taken leave of your senses being ok with proceeding with the NG Op when KB popped up off New Caledonia. My, my, this should be fun to watch. Great deception.

You will finally get to execute your long planned offensive from the Q Ball game!

< Message edited by Cribtop -- 6/22/2013 9:56:25 PM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/22/2013 10:01:00 PM   
Canoerebel


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I apologize for misleading you gents, though it isn't unprecedented. I did this same routine before invading Hokkaido in my WitP match vs. John. Traditionally, I stick to the facts in excruciating detail. I did so in this game with the Aleutians plan and then with the New Guinea plan. Here's why I finally departed:

1. Intentional OpSec violations are so rare as to be disregarded (though I"m aware of two instances, one of which involved Nemo).
2. Accidental OpSec violations are possible, which every AAR recorder knows. I usually adopt a "I don't care" attitude and move on.
3. Here, John "sniffed out" my Aleutians plan in amazing detail...and then did the very same thing with New Guinea (reinforcing Gove Island? Good grief!) His Just in Time Reinforcements were vexxing. He had figured me out! He knew me too well!
4. Most importantly, the two Just In Times had cost me roughly two months and 2/3rd of the map. As best I could tell, there was only one more chance and place to achieve a big surprise - Sumatra. If John sniffed this one out and orchestrated Just in Time Reinforcements Part III, I was out of time and real estate. I'd just have to go into 1943 and count on winning by shear firepower as reinforcements arrived.
5. But I love surprises! Love them! So, I created this maskirovka.
6. I was pretty sure the Oz feint would run its course long before my Sumatra TFs would get anywhere close, but that didn't happen. The Oz feint took on a life of its own and really seemed to capture John's full attention.
7. I don't think there's been a Just in Time Reinforcements, Part III.

Time for me to log off for a few hours to go bike riding with my son. More late tonight.
1.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/22/2013 10:02:38 PM   
JohnDillworth


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The KB is out of position. Even at a dead run through the Torres Straits it might take him 7 days to get to you. His AO's are not that fast so he will have to refuel along the way so maybe another day or two. Yo should be unmolested by the KB long enough to get everything ashore. He has LBA & interior lines but it will take a few days to move a large force there. You have a bit of time but he will get a counter-attack in. I guess the trick is going to be getting a base, an air filed, fighter protection and sooner or later some decent AA ashore. This really puts Burma in jeopardy. Glad you didn't go for the Mutsu. If you pull this off she is collateral damage.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/22/2013 10:08:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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Cribbit, I knew you were concerned. Thanks!

I should clarify that Nemo was the victim of an intentional OpSec violation - still the most egregious example of unsportsmanlike conduct I've witnessed by the AE community.

There are many facits of this plan to discuss later, but in part: Isolating the vast Japanese army (ten divisions???) in Burma.
Isolating whatever ships are currently cut off around Rangoon.
I can transfer AMerican fighters from Ramree to Sabang.
So many IJA divisons are committed far away that I don't see how John can organize an effective ground campaign in the near term.
The Allies are bringing alot - kitchen sink type stuff.
I have good and big bases - Diego and Columbo - in relatively close proximity. Unlike a Java campaign, therefore, I'm not "hung out to dry.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/22/2013 10:08:46 PM   
Cribtop


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I agree. This should work - you have John dead to rights.

Question - I assume you are bringing the same overkill horde of troops you detailed for the NG Op? If so, no way does he kick you off Sumatra. This will be a war winner.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/22/2013 10:26:29 PM   
obvert


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Well done sir. I had my doubts first about your sanity going in with full knowledge KB was after you and then wondered if I should have some doubts about the validity of the op, but you've hidden it masterfully. Well played.

Still a bit of work to do as it's possible the veil comes off with those ships sunk. His LBA can get there in force, but you've seen the kB far away and his troops are split as well it seems. I look forward to the continuation.



< Message edited by obvert -- 6/22/2013 11:39:42 PM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/22/2013 10:34:30 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

His LBA can get there in force, but the kB is far away and his troops are split as well it seems. I look forward to the continuation.
In the short term John can move tons of LBA air in. There are plenty of decent airfields in range. I don' think he can get many boots on the ground and the IJN will have to sit this one out for a bit. They will be there, but not for a week or two. If he was moving more stuff to Burma he might be able to reroute, but it probably is not a ton of stuff. CR has to grab some bases and get them on-line

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/22/2013 10:50:32 PM   
pws1225

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

By "kudos to him" I mean this: We players do our dead-level best to formulate a good plan; it takes weeks and months to gather and prep the assets; we create feints (Aluetians, NoPac, Cocos Island, whatever); we sift through SigInt and patrol reports for evidence that our opponent is or isn't prepared; we monitor activity elsewhere on the map to glean what information we can; then the plan is implemented, we continue to monitor and watch and sift and glean; everything thing available continues to tell us that things look good....then, if under those circumstances, our opponent has pulled a maskirvoka so detailed and so effective that not a single warning bell was sounded...well, in those circumstances we just have to tip our caps to a nimble and crafty opponent.


And a hat tip to you, Sir.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 12:34:52 AM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

Nemo, that's just spectacular! But I can't do it. I vowed long ago not to use emails at all. Just a personal preference. But I can see hwo the course of action you set forth would be very effective against John. However, I'll just sit on my hands and quietly see what's coming and what's going and what's happening and what isn't.

Well this makes sense now

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 1:05:24 AM   
Canoerebel


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11/9/42

Much to say, but don't have much time until later tonight. So a quick summary:

Operation Des Wallace: John moves patrol aircraft to Cocos and Sabang and - voila! - the board lights up with detection (he has to be kicking himself right now - just one patrol squadron properly and prudently placed and he'd have had days of notice). Many of my TFs are detected. He might still have some question as to scope and exact targets, but I think he largely knows. The British will lead the invasion, as 18th UK Div. goes in tomorrow morning, preceeded by five slow USN BBs bombarding (with aircraft serving as spotters, night and day). The carriers will take position just off the tip of Sumatra. Some combat ships will enter the straights to patrol and perhaps soak off a few enemy air raids. The new Nicobars patrol squadrons will recon Sabang and Georgetown. Lots of enemy shipping appears cut off, but nothnig particularly sexy. I reduce range on my fighters and bombers to four, hoping not to waste sorties on riff-raff (but taking a chance if enemy carriers pop up). Some Avengers and Dauntlesses will hit Sabang airfield and troops. Cursor shows two units at Sabang - according to long-ago SigInt, one should be a garrison unit. I assume the other is a base force. The American troops should arrive in to days, as they are seven hexes out. Onward, stout soldiers and sailor and airmen!

Elsewhere: Nothing major, so I'll report later.

One more time just for fun: 91/7/0/3

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 1:08:28 AM   
crsutton


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Nice move Canoe and good smoke screens. You know how much I like a move on Sabang. Siboret Island is a "must" for you. It's potential level 9 airbase is the key to cutting off his oil. But if he fights for Siboret, you will need LSTs or at best LCTs to keep it in supply, and I don't know if you have any (LSTs) yet. This will be the decisive battle of the war. If he can't throw you out the war is lost for him.

JFB's pay heed. You can't leave this area unguarded. It it just too critical. This is AE 101...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 1:11:30 AM   
Cribtop


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Crsutton is correct. Based on his earlier warnings, I massively garrisoned Siboeret in my latest game. That base is an AFB dream if taken on the cheap. Kiss your Oil goodbye if it falls, JFBs!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 2:06:19 AM   
Canoerebel


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I agree about Sumatra, and I realize nearly all IJ players worry about it too. I still don't know what John has in Sumatra, but judging by SigInt (quiet!) and the number of divisions and attention given to Burma and New Guinea, I feel confident (not postive) that it should be lightly held.

I brough as much as three-gazillion transports could carry, but I still didn't have room for everything. An Oz division got left behind and parts of a couple of Marine regiments.

I haven't counted precisely - I just loaded and loaded. I know there are four full divisions (three first wave + 32nd coming in strategic mode). Then there are at least two more complete division equivalents and perhaps as many as four. I think bringing six or seven divisions plus lots of engineers and base forces should make it very hard on John to counter effectively short term and perhaps even medium term.

Definite objectives: Sabang, several of the bases "down the coast to and past Medan, Sibolga and several of the island (both Sumatra and Nicobars). Possible objectives: Siberoet and Padang. I doubt this is going to be possible, but we'll see. Part of a Marine raider battalion will be testing this objective in a couple of days (and another part will either probe Siberoet or Sibolga). Getting three or four or five mutually supporting bases anchored by Sabang, Sibolga and Medan is my first priority. Hold those and John has major problems. Anything beyond that is gravy and icing.

We have a rule vs. strategic bombing until 1944, so that isn't an objective of this operation. The objective is to take and hold western Sumatra, isolate Burma and Port Blair, inflict damage on enemy assets, and stress John.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 2:23:56 AM   
Canoerebel


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A final narrative about how Operation Des Wallace came about:

1. In early October, the Allied plan to invade New Guinea and adjacent islands was underway. Many transports had arrived at Hobart, Port Kembla, etc. had unloaded, with more enroute. The Amercian carriers were near New Zealand. This move was complicated and lengthy and had follwed immediately after the frustrating Just in Time Reinforcements, Part I (Aleutians).

2. It was clear from SigInt and patrol reports that Just in Time Reinforcements, Part II (New Guinea Theater) was underway. Frustrating! Time for a snap decision - proceed or divert? The biggest factor was that John was still actively moving into the NG Theater (and thus away from Sumatra). Moving away while the enemy is moving in is optimum, so the decision was made that very turn.

3. First decision: Reload all the Tasmania troops via strat mode and move them to Adelaide (which wasn't under observation) to combat load. Move the troops in Oz to Adelaide via rail. This took a LONG time - loading scores of thousands of troops at Port 5 Hobart promised to be a challenge.

4. Second decision: immediately preposition supply xAKs, TKs and oilers from Capetown somewhere around Diego Garcia. Release Indomitable (scheduled for withdrawal in 60 days) from Capetown to participate.

5. Speed was the utmost consideration. So, as soon as the "first wave" troops were at Adelaide, they loaded on the best and fastest ships. These TFs moved out accompanied by the carriers and combat TFs. The plan being to push, push, push to Sumatra and allow the second wave and tertiary wave troops to arrive when they arrived.

6. I think the first wave speerhead departed Adelaide around October 15 or 16. It was sometime around then - or perhaps a week earlier - that I decided to divert 18th UK Div. She was at Cochin and heading for Burma. Instead, she stood down and began prepping. I think 18th Div. is roughly 55% prepped, which will be by far the highest prep level.

7. From there, it was just a matter of seeing when the enemy might become informed and institute Just In Time Reinforcements, Part III. What an agonizing 25-day journey it was.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 2:38:06 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
We have a rule vs. strategic bombing until 1944, so that isn't an objective of this operation.


Well, if you can get something (LBA DBs, naval attack aircraft) within 6-7 hexes of Palembang approaches, you can have a de facto embargo without strat bombing his oil per se.

Another underrated side effect of this operation is the threat posed to Singapore proper. It serves as the best port on the Japanese right flank-bar none. With its use denied, that's a critical loss for the Japs.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 2:40:04 AM   
Chickenboy


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Well done, Dan. I'm going to enjoy watching this. It'll be bloody, but it's almost impossible for him to eject you. You are in an excellent position to completely crumple his entire right flank / theater.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 3:00:08 AM   
JeffK


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Well done, I was very fearful of your advance into the valley of death, just too many supporting bases (as you listed the airfields earlier)

This attack puts you in place to affect JIII, rather than be the start of a slog through New Guinea.

Re You cant Strat Bomb Palembang, when can you start night minelaying??

Also to add to the failure to have Nav search at Cocos would be allowing you to set up a base at Trinkat and not have Nav Search out of Pt Blair.

(I hope you have a few subs in the choke points that JIII will be using??)

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 3:21:47 AM   
Canoerebel


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I think I have 25 subs in the water between Sabang and Singapore. I have five or six in the Sulu Sea. I have three in the Torres Straits. Perhaps six or eight covering the Bismark Sea choke points. But I don't have anything covering the Java Sea. I'm not counting on my subs to do anything snazzy, but I will have DD patrols out (and, gracious, if I don't get airfields up and running in three or four days, something's gone awry).

As for the Nicobars, the insertion of supplies and base force cadres was handled by PBYs out of Ramree Island - the cadres just coming in two days back. I think John had/has patrols operating out of Port Blair - unless he recently stripped everything to divert to New Guinea, which is possible.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 3:52:12 AM   
JeffK


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I wondered how Trinkat got up and running!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 4:50:07 AM   
Cribtop


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On another note, ISR is King, folks. Knowing what the enemy is up to is at least 2/3rds of the Battle. I've learned this lesson from repeated observations in numerous AARs. Knowledge is Power. A cliche, but oh so true.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 11:07:35 AM   
Commander Cody


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Well played, Sir. Well played.

Cheers,
CC

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 11:10:20 AM   
JocMeister

 

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Well done CR! Looks like you managed to fool most of us!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 11:29:33 AM   
JeffK


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We'll all look silly if JIII has 2-3 Divisions holding the beach!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 11:45:30 AM   
V I Lenin

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

We'll all look silly if JIII has 2-3 Divisions holding the beach!


I burst out laughing in my seat when CR revealed what he had been doing, so I think that maybe past the 'silly' point already...

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 11:48:51 AM   
Encircled


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For those of us who just play the AI, this shows what a challenge it must be playing a very good human player.

I take my hat off to you sir!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 11:54:27 AM   
BigBadWolf


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Wait, you guys really didn't saw this coming? Pffft, I figured out CR's plan like a week ago.



Jokes aside, it will be very interesting watching John's reaction and how he deals with this.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 12:11:30 PM   
yubari

 

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Great stuff, and a war winning move. Those airfields can be built up so big and the defensive terrain is so good.
I also suspected that something like this would be happening, but declined to mention it. Great theatre these past couple of weeks

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 12:34:57 PM   
Encircled


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Not only a great move, but guaranteed to close the gap on Greyjoys AAR....

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 2:51:02 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: yubari

Great stuff, and a war winning move. Those airfields can be built up so big and the defensive terrain is so good.
I also suspected that something like this would be happening, but declined to mention it. Great theatre these past couple of weeks


Like Yubari, I suspected something but played along with the narrative CR was spinning. Does that mean we were part of the "negative space" à la Nemo 121? If so, should we feel insulted or honoured?

It will be very interesting to see if the successful landings [with lots of supply] can be sustained over many months with Japanese LBA so close by. It is only Nov. 1942 for Pete's sake, and allied fighter pools are not great. But if anyone can make it work, Canoe Rebel can!

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 6/23/2013 3:24:38 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
It will be very interesting to see if the successful landings [with lots of supply] can be sustained over many months with Japanese LBA so close by. It is only Nov. 1942 for Pete's sake, and allied fighter pools are not great. But if anyone can make it work, Canoe Rebel can!


Aye, that's the question. Can these landings be sustained? There will be an aerial pounding administered. CRs fighter pools will suffer further, particularly in those bases within range of the Malay peninsula. I forsee lots and lots and lots of fighter sweeps and airfield pounding.

But that won't be enough to dislodge troops, will it? Unless he puts 20 Divisions together to root out the Allies, it will be insufficient. Particularly for those islands offshore that can be built into a massive redoubt. These will require a major counter amphibious offensive into the teeth of enemy airpower. Not gonna happen in 1943.

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