From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
A few thoughts about the current state of my game with John III:
1. John has largely been reacting to moves by the Allies for quite awhile now: (1) three BBs in NoPac for months, followed by amphibious operations; (2) four BBs and a good part of the KB in CenPac for five weeks now; (3) lots of activity on Oz's west coast; (4) a Mini KB and lots of air in the Bay of Bengal. Each of these followed Allied amphibious operations. The only area where he took the initiative was in SoPac - New Caledonia - and that's tapered off considerably due to the situation in the Gilberts.
2. John's done a good job in stopping cold each Allied advance (except Ramree), but the "open and obvious commitment" of so much of his ships has robbed him of any semblance of a force-in-being defence.
3. The Allies haven't landed any major blows yet - no enemy carriers or BBs hit; only three CAs sunk. The most telling blows perhaps against DDs (31, by my count, and 19 of these worth more than six points, including seven worth 13 points) and aircraft (the Allies have a 1,300 plane lead).
4. On the flip side, John has done very little to attrit important Allied assets. I've lost five BBs (three old, Repulse, PoW), five CA (Astoria being the best), and 30 DD (only Triomphant was worth more than six points).
5. John continues to play very aggressively. Since I don't have any major operations scheduled in the next 45 days - excepting doing whatever it takes to protect Ramree and Akyab, which is a big exception - he may be able to reclaim the initiative, especially if he can reclaim the Gilberts within that time frame.
6. As John works to reclaim the initiative, what will happen in each theater over the next two months? Predictions:
a) NoPac: John controls the sea (part KB and BBs) and air, so I think he'll come for Cold Bay. I don't think he'll come for Kodiak. I'll "underplay" things so that I don't telegraph my plans in this region.
b) CenPac: John will reclaim the Gilberts fairly soon. Once that's done he's probably finished in this region.
c) SoPac: He'll move on Luganville fairly soon. I'm not sure he'll come for Fiji, but he might.
d) Oz: I think he's done here except for minor offensive action and major defensive preparation.
e) Bay of Bengal: He's probably going to work the Ramree angle pretty hard while establishing his MLR in the Burma plains.
f) China: Looks like he's done here with the possible exceptions of Chengte and Kweilin, and perhaps a move at some point in the Sian sector. (He's going to claim he backed down in China of his own accord; I contend strongly that he couldn't have progressed much further anyway.)
7. Allied plans:
a) Defend Ramree and Akyab and prepare to take the offensive in Burma. By and large, this is a low risk operation. The biggest threat is draining my aircraft pools, which would undermine my ability to fight. 41st USA Div. is en route to Bombay. It should arrive at the front in about 60 to 75 days. The Allies will probably coordinate offensive action in this theater to compliment the moves against the Aluetians.
b) Prepare for the invasion of the western Aluetians. D-Day probably late September.
c) Should I detect enemy preparations in the western Aleutians, I would divert my buildup to target another region, most likely New Caledonia.
d) Western Oz will serve as the feint and deception target.
< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 4/12/2013 5:52:50 PM >