From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
A fairly quiet day in which the only significant item is a SigInt report that makes me wonder if part of the KB has just passed Tulagi while steaming SW. In light of the quiet, a strategic overview is in order:
Pour Over Aggression: I've been keeping up with recent events in John's other game. He's enthused and victorious to such an extent that his enthusiasm will pour over into this game, I believe. He's also been reacting in this game for nearlyy the entire month, so he'll want to strike somewhere hard - of that I'm pretty certain. (I hadn't read John's other AAR until he brought it forward several weeks ago; I'm glad I didn't, for it would have influenced how I played the game, quite possibly in a negative way given his successes in Australia.)
SEAC: By now John has probably surmised that he cannot take control of the deteriorating situation in Burma and at Ramree Island based upon the assets at hand. He's got to bring carriers or give up the fight. To fight, he's got to bring more than I have, and he has to allow for the possibility I might move more CVs to theater. He's not moving with alacrity, but at some point I think this is going to become paramount for him. Until then, I wonder if he is going to lose many more aircraft and surface ships trying stopgap measures. This is his Achillee's heel.
China: The Chinese have stopped the Japanese advance cold. Chengte and Kweilin anchor the two flanks, with the Chinese establishing good postions to each side and in between. I'm still not sure whether John is observing his self-declared cease fire (his conduct at Chengte suggests not), but I am sure that it wouldn't have mattered. The Chinese are in pretty good shape.
NoPac: Japan can make some progress here by taking forward bases like Dutch Harbor and Akutan. I really hope the strong forward bases leaves John vulnerable to the rear. This is an area the Allies can hit hard under acceptable risk and accomplish things that have a strategic effect on the game.
CenPac: The Japanese have restored order here. The Gilberts are theirs for the re-taking. But each day means Japan is committing assets that might have been used elsewhere.
SoPac: The Japanese clearly have designs on Luganville, but I don't think John intends to come any further. It's not significant to the Allies if they do.
Australia: Allied infrastructure (airfields), troop levels, and aircraft numbers are in such good shape that I don't think there's a legit risk that John could make a major move on either coast. I think there's a decent chance the KB will return to this theater so that John can apply some of his excess aggression. If he sends carriers here rather than to Bay of Bengal, each such day is an Allied victory.