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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2017 3:19:04 AM   
RangerJoe


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A very nice video that you did, thank you.

If the KB goes to SoPac and you get the southern Korean airfields, then the DS would not necessarily be needed for fighter sweeps over that part of the HI. It would also allow many more 2EB bombers to work over that area of the HIs. So you can get even more Strategic Bombing points and/or stretch his HI CAP fighter units even more.

Or it would allow the DS to be used elsewhere.

Just make sure that your Soviet air units are ready to fly . . .

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2017 7:21:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/26/45

Fancy Pants: One of the most successful B-29 raids thus far hits northern industrial targets, daytime and low altitude.

Advancing into the northern plains proceeding. John should employ his air force to hit the spearheads soon.

Loading for Korea invasion coming along in good order.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2017 7:29:59 PM   
BBfanboy


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I have never seen John develop a defence in depth on land - he likes to fight forward (as you know). For this reason I would guess his reinforcements will go by rail to Tientsin and Peiping.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2017 7:31:52 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/26/45

Allied LOC: John continues working to interdict the main Allied supply line through the Gulf of Carpentaria. He's got to be weighing his options here - can he afford to commit KB to seriously interdict the LOC (from his point of view; from mine, it's really already too late) or does he have a higher priority elsewhere? I don't think he's done yet, either here of in SoPac.





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< Message edited by Canoerebel -- 11/5/2017 7:32:52 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/5/2017 7:42:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/26/45

SoPac: Allied ground defenses have been beefed up considerably. John still has lots of subs reporting Allied TFs around Fiji. I think this will draw his attention again, at some point. KB East is at Lunga.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 4:36:13 AM   
Flicker

 

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CR - of course you are right to press on to Peiping; when you cut off John's forward forces you'll be able to defeat him in detail and pick up some of those supply-producing cities without too much trouble.

I wonder when John will realize that his forces are in danger of being 'pocketed' and we'll see some directional arrows from his troops. It might be a race.

Are there any bases that look promising for paratroopers to block the rails?

Also, do you have damaged industry etc. in your cities and do you plan to repair the damage?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 6:18:39 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flicker

CR - of course you are right to press on to Peiping; when you cut off John's forward forces you'll be able to defeat him in detail and pick up some of those supply-producing cities without too much trouble.

I wonder when John will realize that his forces are in danger of being 'pocketed' and we'll see some directional arrows from his troops. It might be a race.

Are there any bases that look promising for paratroopers to block the rails?

Also, do you have damaged industry etc. in your cities and do you plan to repair the damage?


It takes 1000 supply to repair each point of industry damage and in 1945 there is not enough time to recoup the expenditure. CR has enough pressure on his available supply already.

_____________________________

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 9:21:46 AM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Flicker

CR - of course you are right to press on to Peiping; when you cut off John's forward forces you'll be able to defeat him in detail and pick up some of those supply-producing cities without too much trouble.

I wonder when John will realize that his forces are in danger of being 'pocketed' and we'll see some directional arrows from his troops. It might be a race.

Are there any bases that look promising for paratroopers to block the rails?

Also, do you have damaged industry etc. in your cities and do you plan to repair the damage?


It takes 1000 supply to repair each point of industry damage and in 1945 there is not enough time to recoup the expenditure. CR has enough pressure on his available supply already.


So 1,000 days of LI to recoup the loss. Only 500 of HI production, and HI is making HI points too, but of course using fuel.



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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 12:12:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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At the current rate of scoring, the game will end in late April or early May 1945. Less than 100 days left. So Bbfanboy is right - not worth expending supply to repair industry.

But the Chinese industry captured is mostly in good shape. Especially Shanghai, which didn't take any hits to Light Industry (150) and which has 1.3 million resources in stock. So Shanghai will produce supply the rest of the game.

A complete Victory Points analysis will be given at the end of January - four more turns.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 12:22:12 PM   
Zecke


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

At the current rate of scoring, the game will end in late April or early May 1945. Less than 100 days left. So Bbfanboy is right - not worth expending supply to repair industry.

But the Chinese industry captured is mostly in good shape. Especially Shanghai, which didn't take any hits to Light Industry (150) and which has 1.3 million resources in stock. So Shanghai will produce supply the rest of the game.

A complete Victory Points analysis will be given at the end of January - four more turns.


quit interesting; to get into admirals; thx for thr TIPS

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 1:45:36 PM   
MakeeLearn


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America 1945... able to start rebuilding Japan and still defeat her.

"Land of the big PX"

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 2:05:54 PM   
Lowpe


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With the anticipated 2-1 victory happening prior to Soviet Activation -- is there any troops still on the Soviet border other than border forts? Can you tell?

The Manchuko garrison, which does include troops inside Korea, is around 8000 AV.

But, even 8,000 AV is very misleading as by now it is all air mobile infantry...the worst the IJA has to offer lacking in AFVs, IJA 43 squads, and Artillery above 75mm. With the recent devastation of IJA Tank Divisions, there probably won't be much to stop you, especially if you go with a fair bit of tanks.

Depending upon PP, it is usually pretty easy for Japan to reinforce Korea thru Fusan. Nasty CD guns, most likely heavily mined, and patrolled by ASW forces (air and land).

Do you have any plans on attempting to interdict this line?

Interesting to see all the supply exclamations pop up over China. Reigning in the AI supply engine is definitely very difficult to do with troops in the field.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 2:27:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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1. I don't know what's still on the border. I have seen some Manchurian and some Mongolian units on the front lines. They don't fight well against the Americans, as you'd expect.

2. So far in the plains, there's been no cobbled-together rear MLR. My biggest issue is going to be enemy air power. My spearhead units have little or no fighter protection. John can rough them up if he thinks of it. I'm going to try to take and build one airfield pretty quickly. Other than that, I want to see what he does in the air because I don't think he can stop me on the ground shy of jungle/woods terrain.

3. I won't interdict reinforcements to Fusan prior to the invasion, only because the invasion will take place in six or seven days and, prior to then DS is down at Foochow replenishing.

4. Supply will be an issue forward, at least for the bases. I think the units will draw supply overland pretty well.

If the Allies take Gunzan and get an airfield in Korea, then Strategic Bombing campaign should increase considerably in efficiency and the endgame will take shape sooner. Long-term possibilities like Soviet Activation and the like probably won't have time to ripen into real possibilities.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 8:19:33 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/27/45

SoPac: Lots of Japanese subs sniffing around Fiji. Most of the troops have finished unloading, so the high value transports will retire tonight. Low value stuff remains to draw John's attention.

Will he come back? I'm nearly positive he'll raid the Gulf of Carpentaria or SoPac in the near term - a few days. He may raid both.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 8:52:14 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/27/45

Fancy Pants: Korea invasion force loading is underway. I think the ships will leave Shanghai for Korea in four or five days.

The bombers had another good day with light losses over the Home Islands. In a departure from the norm, they'll come again tomorrow. A third straight day. The Liberators to hit Matsuyama, the Superforts to target Niigata.






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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/6/2017 10:21:07 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Politically/historically this is very interesting. Would you be having to beak up Chinese fighting the Chinese and what would Stalin's response be to a Korean invasion.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 10:45:35 AM   
JohnDillworth


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Nah.....Stalin was busy elsewhere in January 45. Now Chinese on Chinese violence? yup, that there would have been a problem

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Art comforts the disturbed and disturbs the comfortable.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 12:03:54 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/28/45

Fancy Pants: Advance in the plains continues. John is now employing his air force. Hong Kong is showing major weakness. And the 4EB have a good day.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 12:10:26 PM   
AcePylut


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What are your thought on hitting Moppo instead of Gunzen and driving straight across to Fusan? Take Fusan, and you "break" the "Mine of death" (as I call it, instead of the line of death) of mines that can be laid from Fusan to Kyushu? That would open up the Sea of Japan to the DS - and all those juicy bases on the "west" coast of Japan would be ripe for pickings - and require defense from J3. Also, it gives you some nice lvl 9 af's right on Japan's doorstep.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 1:32:33 PM   
alaviner


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If you really want to increase John's pucker factor, light up the islands around and bases on Kyushu with recon and Corsair sweeps as you move North. His biggest fear would be an early landing on the home islands. He may draw back aircraft that he is currently using in China.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 2:01:11 PM   
Lowpe


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quote:

ORIGINAL: alaviner


< Message edited by Lowpe -- 11/7/2017 4:40:44 PM >

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 3:29:52 PM   
Canoerebel


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Barring something bad happening, there's not much time left. Perhaps 90-100 days. So investing in long-term programs or campaigns isn't cost efficient because it's unlikely to bear fruit before the game ends. The ops currently underway or under serious consideration are design to quickly harvest points or allow the harvesting of points: (1) Taking even one airfield in Korea will open most of the Home Islands to Allied fighter sweeps and bombing raids everywhere by most everything. So if I can take Gunzan, I'll go for it. At last look, it was considerably less defended than Moppo. And I don't have any notion of Death Star ever visiting the Sea of Japan. That would be a big risk, but basically the same things can be accomplished without taking those risks. (2) taking Hainan Island - necessary to protect the big LST TFs set to run supply from Indochina up to China; Hainan Island won't take long and it won't involve much; (3) possibly an invasion of Patani on the Malaya coast, landing behind the front lines and possibly expediting the campaign for Singapore. (At this point, I don't think Singers comes into play before the game ends, but I'm developing the campaign just in case the points are needed; and beating up enemy armies and taking small-points bases has merit of its own.

As for an end game, it's basically impossible to end a game before 1/1/45 by Victory Points. Achieving 3:1 against a relatively experienced opponent by a player of relatively similar experience isn't going to happen very often. And it wasn't within the realm of things that might have happened. The limitations of supply, and an imperfect knowledge of the game, persuaded me to advance carefully. I knew I had John by the short hairs and the only way he could avoid defeat was if I made a major mistake. Had I done so, a lot of readers would be talking about "Victory Disease" and the like.

I've never played Japan. I haven't taken the game apart to study the enemy OOB. I don't Sandbox. I don't have files filled with every rules/engine explanation given. I don't use Tracker of other things. I am not an expert at the workings of the game. I make notes by hand, think through things, enjoy analysis and planning and implementing. And I'm learning how to employ combined massive force late in the game. I've learned a great deal. I'm also aware that some of my experience is tainted by the peculiarities of my opponent's style of play.

And I scratch my head when people are flat rude in criticizing how I've played the game.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 3:51:50 PM   
MakeeLearn


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Dropping Paratroopers into Korea.... Division or smaller?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 4:06:30 PM   
Canoerebel


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I'm taking a US paratroop division and dividing it into either three or four segments. I'll drop them on bases on the railroad leading to Gunzan. The hope is that they'll knock units in those hexes out of Strat mode into Combat mode. I don't know that it'll work but it's worth a try.

John could flood the beach with last minute reinforcements. If he does so at the same time that my troops land, I'll probably just re-embark them aboard ship and move off elsewhere. I'd really like an airfield in Korea but I don't want to get bogged down in a two-month battle to take one right under the nose of about ten big Japanese airfields five to eight hexes away. So this is designed to be a smash and grab rather than Anzio.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 4:23:25 PM   
Canoerebel


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At lunch today, I was reading an autobiography of a young private in a Confederate Maryland regiment. His regiment helped route the Union Army at First Bull Run. With good reason, he expressed the southern soldier's expectation that the Confederate Army would advance on Washington and then free Maryland from Yankees. The path to Washington seemed clear. But we know that, from a bigger picture, such an advance was problematic. Supply and the disarray of battle limited what the victorious army could do, in ways that folks couldn't really understand.

The same applies in this game. In June of 1944, I was winding up the Luzon campaign and looking at Coastal China and Formosa. I had supply limitations that affected what I thought I could achieve. And I felt like Strategic Bombing was the most efficient way to score the points needed to achieve victory. So everything was put into motion to implement that plan - to forego a more risky and supply intensive invasion of the Home Islands in favor of a more supply-friendly ground campaign in China to allow an air campaign against Japan. Contrary to what some folks think, that wasn't an idiotic plan. There was merit to the plan, at least from what I knew or thought I knew.

In fact, the Strategic Bombing campaign has been tougher than I had expected. I've scored a lot of points. But instead of "a thousand points a day" its been more like (on average) three or four or five thousand points a month. That maybe due to flaws in my strategy or brilliance in John's or a combination of both or a neither. The bombing campaign has gone pretty well but it wasn't enough to drive the Allies to victory in February or March, as I had first hoped. Instead it looks like victory will take place in late April or early May.

According to the game, that will be a decisive Allied victory (if I understand the rules). As I've noted before, the notion of victory is enhanced by certain tangibles like the mod and the House Rules. This feels to me like a pretty decisive Allied victory, as things currently stand.

So when Joh or a Forumite says or implies, "Hey, dumbass, you stink. You should've won six months ago." That's about as offensive a thing to say as I can think of.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 4:33:24 PM   
AcePylut


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I’m not criticizing, just asking. I’ve not made it this far in a PBEM and not aware of all the considerations that go into the “end game” thought process – so I ask in effort to learn about those things I will need to consider. The funny thing, in this game, is how your skill can be determined by just a few die rolls. Imagine if J3 had committed the KB to a carrier battle at anything during or after the PI invasions… and imagine if he rolled double 6’s and got the strike in first… and imagine if he had just enough escort and just enough favorable die rolls to punch through cap and aa… and imagine that crippled any return strike on the KB… We’d be talking about “victory disease” as you say. It happened irl at Midway after all :)

But I think you should nuke Japan, just to make the game go a little longer for victory, and because you can :D

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 4:41:04 PM   
Lowpe


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Not my intent. Sorry. Deleted.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 4:46:02 PM   
Canoerebel


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Ace, I wasn't thinking of you when writing those last posts. Sorry to have created uncertainty in that regard. There are a few folks (good men, all) who may not be aware that there words can be offensive.

I know John has regrets: losing KB at Wake Island chiefmost, probably.

I have regrets. I wish I'd thought out the House Rules better. I wish I had understood the limited nature of the Fighter Pools. And I wish I'd better understood how far it is to "go back" (clear up rear areas) when the front has moved a thousand to two thousand miles north.

I really though that one day there'd be time to invade Kendari, Balikpapan, Palembang, etc. I had troops prepped. But it just never seemed efficient to recall Death Star for that purpose. It wasn't a total waste, as having those units at key bases in the DEI and Oz provided strong defense in that key area and also gave me a strategic reserve to employ.

And what about the Sumatra invasion of 11/1942? That was early! Waiting two months might've made all the difference. Or bringing another 200k supply. Or not listening to Nemo, going off on tangents I poorly understand and that ended up detracting from the overall offensive rather than strengthening it (due to my ability, not the quality of Nemo's insights).

But it's been a wild, fun ride.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 5:04:05 PM   
AcePylut


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My 2 cents: while you “could” have won the war “6 months ago” – I believe that doing so would have put yourself at considerable more risk of losing the game. I believe that what you’ve done has made a victory inevitable, and significantly reduced the odds of the J3 rolling “double-6’s” and smashing the DS. In other words - yes, you “may” have won 6 months earlier, but in doing so you would have also put a resounding Allied defeat into play. Everyone here, who’s only investment is reading the AAR, wants to see “splashy eye-candy naval action” and “dramatic behind the lines invasions that punch at the beating heart of Japan” as opposed to the “inevitable, low risk, march across the Pacific”… One way leads to the inevitable ‘nothing can be done about it, defeat of Japan’ (your way), and one way opens the possibility of an Allied defeat (peanut gallery way).

Lets face it - everyone wants to see Avalon Hill's Flat Top played out on the forum, but this game isn't Flat Top.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 11/7/2017 5:16:43 PM   
Canoerebel


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You're right. There's really two fun things to read: (1) a novel game with whacky stuff going on (Lowpe's accidental invasion of Russia; Nemo's Fortress Palembang against One-Eyed-Jacks; Lowpe's invasion of California; Mogami's invasion of California); and (2) when the wheels come off in a big way for a player so that he's crashing and burning.

I noticed this "poor guy!" phenomenon years ago. When reading Sports Illustrated magazine, I enjoyed reading about the bad teams (Mets, whatever) and how things had gone so terribly wrong, rather than the good teams (Yankees win again, yawn). Disasters make compelling reading!

This game lacks some of the tautness that brings the most pleasure to readers. I really did think the Allied advance into the enemy Heartland would goad John into committing KB. I mean, he had to, didn't he? Bushido Code, right? You can't hang back while the enemy is at your doorstep. This is Japan! But he didn't commit KB, for better or worse. But there's still some time left.

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