From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
I've only seen the combat replay and combat report. I'll focus this on the Air Battle for Sabang, since that's really the key to everything.
IJA Sweeps: Tojos sweep in waves, the biggest consisting of 150 fighters. That one does a number on Allied fighters, downing a mix of F4F, P40-K, P40-E, and P-39E. None of the P-38G are lost in combat. The Allies lose roughly 20 fighters (maybe more when I get to see Ops losses). Japan probably loses 15 or so Tojos.
IJN Netties: The sweeps are followed by two modest attacks by torp-carrying Betties escorted by some Zeroes. The Allied CAP knocks down all the Betties, but one did manage to get through and attack Maryland but is downed by flak before launching the torpedo. The big question is whether seeing that one Betty lining up on Maryland gives John the idea of sweeping with the KB and LBA and having all available bombers set to hit the Allied ships in port. I rate this as a high possibility. But for now the best thing I can do is keep the ships in place, protected by CAP (Allies should be able to put up a big number again) and flak (lots of AA units plus ship flak).
Sustainable?: Next turn I'll look carefully at aircraft replacement rates, especially the F4F, P-40K, P-38G, and early Corsairs (just now coming online) to see if how long the Allies can hold out with judicious allocation. IE, if the Allies are losing 20 aircraft a day, can replace 15, and are performing well overall with the Japanese growing fatigued, we might hold out for months. I don't think the prospects are that rosy, but it bears looking in to.
Achilles Heels? For the Allies its fighter pools. For Japan its probably the Kaigun - mainly capital ships. Right now the Kaigun is in harm's way. The Allied airpower is still strong. The Allied Navy is still strong. The waters are choked with mines and Allied subs. I want to promote this environment as long as possible to take shots at capital ships and destroyers. If it looks like Sabang's fighter position is tenuous, the Allies might consider a Death Star vs. KB match off the coast of Sabang on the supposition that I might not get a better chance to whittle down the KB more. Before I do that, I'll open the MOD to see what Japane gets in the way of capital ships. (Alot of Kaigun power is currently out of commission - in addition to ships sunk as shown in the post yesterday, I recall that Mutsu was hammered and that Yamato took a torp in December.
Towards that End: I sent out several surface combat TFs from Sabang. I also had a bombardment TF set to hit an IJ lodgment at Phuket. This TF collied with an IJN CL/DD TF. The Allies greatly outgunned the opposition, but results weren't particularly impressive. Still it is a whittling process. Here's the combat report:
Night Time Surface Combat, near Phuket at 48,69, Range 10,000 Yards
CL Tama, Shell hits 2
CL Kiso, Shell hits 5, heavy fires
DD Michishio, Shell hits 1
DD Minegumo, Shell hits 1
DD Oboro, Shell hits 3, on fire
DD Minekaze, Shell hits 1
DD Hakaze, Shell hits 1
BB Maryland, Shell hits 1
BB West Virginia, Shell hits 3
CLAA Detroit, Shell hits 1
DD Meade, Shell hits 2, on fire