From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Carriers: The situation with shipping and the KB has become very tense. Each click, each move, each day can end in disaster...or it can be completely quiet. You will recall that the enemy carriers slid past Diego to the east, while making generally for Sumatra. Then I lost sight of those carriers. John could easily turn them around and leap right back into the shipping lane between Sabang and Ceylon. I'd say there's a 25% chance he does so - it would be considerably higher, but fuel and spent sorties more than likely persuaded him to replenish. He's spotted the two merchant TFs, but I do not think he's spotted the carriers or the flanker DE. Like I said, there's a 1 in 4 chance he'll leap out and we'll have a big battle, but the current position and window, as evaluated, seems the best to give this a shot. So a shot I shall give it. See map.
Sumatra: All in all, things seem stable and positive at the moment. A big factor is the movement of fuel from Medan to Sabang, which is allowing me to refuel so many of my combat ships that were dry. The American division pushed out of Sibolga is prepping for Langsa and making good movement in that direction. At the moment, John is concentrating his attention on the islands of Nias and Sinabang.
Malaysia: The Japanese have extinquished the Indian brigade and tank unit east of Alor Star, so now that base (defended by 120 AV of 18th UK Div.) will be under assault.
Burma: The Allies will try a new probing attack in the jungle near Ramree tomorrow.
China: John has four divisions ganging up on three Chinese corps (two absolutely depleted after a week of battles) east of Kweilin. The Chinese have held tough, but can't hold indefinitely. This position interdicts the railroad, but isn't part of the Chinese MLR.
New Caledonia: Some troops landed at La Foa and then disappeared, which pretty much ruined my flanking idea. The Allies will deliberate attack at Noumea tomorrow, but I think the IJ garrison will be doubled then.
Overall Situation: John is pretty excited at the moment, judging by his email comments. But overall the Allied situation seems very promising. 35 Days post D-Day, the Allied position in northern Sumatra is very strong. The situation here (and most everywhere) is tense, which you'd expect in December 1942. Tough, tough fighting to come as the Japanese throw themselves at the Allies, but I really like the Allied position and the advantages in position. Sabang is pretty much a fortress. Not unasalable, but darn dangerous for Japan.