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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent

 
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/11/2013 9:54:16 PM   
AcePylut


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Here's a thought... supposed the Japs take New Zealand (incl Noumea) and the west coast of Oz....

That would effectively prevent Oz from being used as a staging point for a thrust to the DEI, New Guinea, etc.

It would force you, as the allies, to fight the battle the Japs want - a naval/air battle outside of Allied LBA.

Look around the map and you'll see that by taking some other strategic islands, he can force the allies to mount their initial strategic counterattack outside of the range of pretty much anything but the 4E's. If he chooses right at that time, and has his assets positioned properly, he can crush your fleet.. or delay your counterattack until it's too late to 'win' the VP war. Factor in the troop stacking limits - and it could be a war winner. Maybe his plan is to just starve oz.

Could work, might not, don't know - haven't seen it done yet.

(in reply to Canoerebel)
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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/11/2013 11:17:59 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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In that case there's always mid-Pac.

IMO there is not combo of moves Japan has the assets to make where the Allies don't have a move where Japan is thin. And taking western Oz AND NZ gives CR a whole pantload of free reenforcements right here in 1942 when he's thin on LCUs.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 2:58:43 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An invasion of New Zealand would be a gift beyond measure.  New Zealand is about as strategically important as the Solomon Islands, but the release of troops would be most welcome in Oz or India.

I'm not saying there's no way to make trouble for the Allies.  There certainly are, and Oz is a prime candidate (as we all know).  But my suspicion is that having the KB loiter around New Zealand will not prove a productive use of that asset in hindsight.

Back when he reconned Newcastle, it struck me that this fits with recent discussion in other AARs that one should take Australia by an early invasion of the southeast. Before the reinforcements so triggered can be brought in, KB can be in the Indian Ocean hunting troop convoys. Oz has no aircarft to speak of and the militia units are neither well-trained nor well equipped. A well supplied IJA landing could roll up the country in short order. Singapore and the Philippines would go on the back burner, as would the Solomons and New Guinea, to provide the troops and ships needed.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 3:02:21 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An invasion of New Zealand would be a gift beyond measure.  New Zealand is about as strategically important as the Solomon Islands, but the release of troops would be most welcome in Oz or India.

I'm not saying there's no way to make trouble for the Allies.  There certainly are, and Oz is a prime candidate (as we all know).  But my suspicion is that having the KB loiter around New Zealand will not prove a productive use of that asset in hindsight.


Don't NZ's emergency militias get released to Aden? That wouldn't do the Allies any good until they were able to be successfully translocated into theatre.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 4:40:11 AM   
BBfanboy


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Yes, most of the land and air units that come in as emergency reinforcements come in at Aden and a few at Cape Town. I think CR indicated he would want to use them in India/Ceylon anyway, so he doesn't have to haul them far.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 4:42:27 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Yes, most of the land and air units that come in as emergency reinforcements come in at Aden and a few at Cape Town. I think CR indicated he would want to use them in India/Ceylon anyway, so he doesn't have to haul them far.


And right down to Burma.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 4:43:59 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An invasion of New Zealand would be a gift beyond measure.  New Zealand is about as strategically important as the Solomon Islands, but the release of troops would be most welcome in Oz or India.

I'm not saying there's no way to make trouble for the Allies.  There certainly are, and Oz is a prime candidate (as we all know).  But my suspicion is that having the KB loiter around New Zealand will not prove a productive use of that asset in hindsight.

Back when he reconned Newcastle, it struck me that this fits with recent discussion in other AARs that one should take Australia by an early invasion of the southeast. Before the reinforcements so triggered can be brought in, KB can be in the Indian Ocean hunting troop convoys. Oz has no aircarft to speak of and the militia units are neither well-trained nor well equipped. A well supplied IJA landing could roll up the country in short order. Singapore and the Philippines would go on the back burner, as would the Solomons and New Guinea, to provide the troops and ships needed.


Has anybody looked at the garrison reqs of Oz? Wow.

This would be a really dumb plan. Give Singers six extra months to dig and supply?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 1:34:08 PM   
Canoerebel


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Very early in the game the Allies are certainly vulnerable in Oz and India (or any other single point or handful of points on the map).  The Allies can try to contest moves against those points, though at the risk of getting overwhelmed and losing the battle.  The other strategy would be to put pressure on Japan elsewhere.  I think I would do a little of both.  The first part of my plan would be to make noise in NoPac, which should put pressure on any Japanese player, but even moreso John given our history there.  This part of my plan is already underway.  As soon as that region is addressed, I would shift my carriers south to either help work reinforcements into Oz or, if John imposed a tight blockade using the full KB, which I think would be likely, I might try something in Sumatra or Burma using the triggered reinforcements.  (An alternate plan that I would look at carefully would be to tranship the extra troops arriving at Aden and Capetown to Balboa and then invade the Kuriles and vicinity in a major way - not sure this is feasible, but I would look at it very hard).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 1:52:27 PM   
Canoerebel


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Here's another thing I'm surmising.  Based upon the eb and flow of the game pace (John has really slowed down of late), plus the events on the map, plus his latest post title ("Ponderings"), I don't think John had a well-thought-out strategy for where he was going after his early moves.  He's in position and has the assets to make plenty of trouble for me in the coming months, but if that hunch is on target, he's wasted about a month of time - IE, the first month of what could have been a grand plan has been lost as he's frittered around unsure what he wanted to do next.  The KB in New Zealand would be Exhibit A in my case.

Or, am I just flat wrong?  Am I about to feel the sting of an incredibly bold and well-thought-out plan?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 2:58:30 PM   
princep01

 

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Or, am I just flat wrong?  Am I about to feel the sting of an incredibly bold and well-thought-out plan?

My guess is no, you shall not feel that sting.

However, as I said a couple of pages back when the New Zealand thing begin to emerge, I do believe John is seriously comtemplating an attack on Noumea/New Zealand with the goal of isolating Oz and then attacking it directly.  The Moose immediately ridiculed my comment (for things I did not say, as I made no comment on the vitality of such a move), but I have read comments elsewhere by John indicating that he is enamoured with the deep battle concept that Nemo (may his tribe prosper) used to discuss in these forums.

The move could just be a raid to "do something" with KB while he decides where he is going in Phase 2, or it could be the precursor to a move on the New Caledonia/New Zealand axis.  However, there has been no indication to date of an invasion fleet moving southeastward.  At this point there are no concrete exhibits, but only circumstantial evidence, to bring to the court's attention.  But, you know John's style of play better than most, so, I ask....would a deep battle invasion of New Caledonia/NZ not be a characteristic of his style of play?

Again (Moose), I make no comment on the advisability of the invasion or an attempt to isolate Oz, rather than just invade it if that is one's goal, but I sure would not write off the distinct possibilty that is what John is up to.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 4:12:40 PM   
Canoerebel


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1/30/42
 
NoPac:  With the enemy carriers far, far away, the American carriers could conduct a raid against the Home Islands, but I don't want to give away their position (doing so would, in my opinion, embolden John to act much faster against Oz in ways that could be highly prejudicial to my interests there; right now I think he's trying to come up with a plan and moving fairly slowly - that works very much to my benefit).

Pacific:  The Pearl Harbor KB is east of Auckland, launched a fourth consecutive raid against that city (sinking a damaged xAK in the process) and is too close to the map edge to allow QE to transit safely.  I'll hold QE south of NZ until the coast is clear.

DEI:  The DEI Branch of the KB is just south of Soerabaja.  John landed 56th Div. at Banjermasin - 450 AV to take on 17 AV? What's with that?  56th ought to be at Singers or Clark Field or about to invade Oz or Diego Garcia or Port Blair.  Banjermasin?

India:  An Aussie bde. arrived at Aden.  This one (and the ones to follow) will head south aboard ship - I may need to move this one to Oz.

John:  There's no doubt John is enamored of the "deep thrust."  However, I think his fondness is just his nature, but probably not part of a well-thought-out and intricate plan.  John might invade NZ or Oz just because he thinks he can.  He's unlikely to give a great deal of thought to the long-term consequences like garrison limits.  To an extent, I understand and admire this train of thought.  Conquer NZ or Oz and you earn a certain amount of fame even if it doesn't work out long term.  To me, Oz makes much more sense than NZ.  The former, if conquered (or truly neutered), would put Japan in a very good position.  But NZ is nothing but icing - tasty, but empty and actually bad for you.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 4:48:09 PM   
Cribtop


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First, I would check your pilot queue. If you have an aviator named "B. Affleck" you should seriously consider going ahead with a raid on the Japanese Home Islands.

Second, a scene from the Ledo deck of the QE:

Hi boys! (wolf whistles). I'm Julie, your cruise director, giving a warm welcome to the brave men of the 27th Division. To our left, you can see the large, infinitely tall black wall. That's the map edge (Julie makes the air quotes hand sign here). We know Antarctica's past it somewhere, but due to certain restrictions imposed by Expedia or Buddha or someone named Gary, damned if we can go through.

To your right, you can see the dark black smoke. That's Auckland, where the enemy's Kido Butai (air quotes again) is doing something violently inscrutable. Since not even the Queen Elizabeth can outrun an airplane, the Captain has decided to just settle in here at a safe distance for a spell. Anyhoo, seems like a perfect time to get around to that shuffleboard tournament I promised you back in San Diego. Who's game? (wild cheers and wolf whistles)

End scene.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 4:52:41 PM   
princep01

 

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But NZ is nothing but icing - tasty, but empty and actually bad for you.
 
Hahahah...well said Canoe....unless, of course, one happens to be a Ziwi:).

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 4:59:23 PM   
princep01

 

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If you have an aviator named "B. Affleck"
 
Hehehhee.  This place is full of jokers today!  Good one, Crib.

B. Affleck...??  Isn't that the famous white duck that does all those delightful TV commericals?  Oh, wait one, that is the other half od Beniffer that got snubbed (wrongfully) for Best Director for Argo, isn't it.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 5:33:30 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: princep01

Or, am I just flat wrong?  Am I about to feel the sting of an incredibly bold and well-thought-out plan?

My guess is no, you shall not feel that sting.

However, as I said a couple of pages back when the New Zealand thing begin to emerge, I do believe John is seriously comtemplating an attack on Noumea/New Zealand with the goal of isolating Oz and then attacking it directly.  The Moose immediately ridiculed my comment (for things I did not say, as I made no comment on the vitality of such a move), but I have read comments elsewhere by John indicating that he is enamoured with the deep battle concept that Nemo (may his tribe prosper) used to discuss in these forums.

The move could just be a raid to "do something" with KB while he decides where he is going in Phase 2, or it could be the precursor to a move on the New Caledonia/New Zealand axis.  However, there has been no indication to date of an invasion fleet moving southeastward.  At this point there are no concrete exhibits, but only circumstantial evidence, to bring to the court's attention.  But, you know John's style of play better than most, so, I ask....would a deep battle invasion of New Caledonia/NZ not be a characteristic of his style of play?

Again (Moose), I make no comment on the advisability of the invasion or an attempt to isolate Oz, rather than just invade it if that is one's goal, but I sure would not write off the distinct possibilty that is what John is up to.


What is this, pile on Moose week? First it's Castor Troy being an ass, imputing comments about strategic bombing I said twice I had not begun and did not care to discuss, and now this?

Look back at my comment on a NZ campaign. I said nothing about you or your comment. I commented on the strategy, John's possible strategy. It's a dumb strategy. Was, is, and will be. Your comment was simple reporting on John's tendencies, which I happen to agree with BTW.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 5:35:45 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Very early in the game the Allies are certainly vulnerable in Oz and India (or any other single point or handful of points on the map).  The Allies can try to contest moves against those points, though at the risk of getting overwhelmed and losing the battle.  The other strategy would be to put pressure on Japan elsewhere.  I think I would do a little of both.  The first part of my plan would be to make noise in NoPac, which should put pressure on any Japanese player, but even moreso John given our history there.  This part of my plan is already underway.  As soon as that region is addressed, I would shift my carriers south to either help work reinforcements into Oz or, if John imposed a tight blockade using the full KB, which I think would be likely, I might try something in Sumatra or Burma using the triggered reinforcements.  (An alternate plan that I would look at carefully would be to tranship the extra troops arriving at Aden and Capetown to Balboa and then invade the Kuriles and vicinity in a major way - not sure this is feasible, but I would look at it very hard).


You probably have this in mind, but it bears repeating that the emergency LCUs, while great, are not the whole, or maybe best, part of the package. The fighters, tanks, and other sweet devices which get dumped in the pools can be used immediatley in Oz or elsewhere with no transport time or risk. From memory I think the Oz package alone has 30 Spits.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 1/12/2013 5:45:00 PM >


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 6:56:08 PM   
princep01

 

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What is this, pile on Moose week?
 
Well, perhaps you should take a step back and review your comment to mine.  I, in no way, endorsed John's "deep battle" strategy, if that is, indeed, in the making.  However, your response indicates that I did endorse it.  My observation was was meerly a suggestion as to what he might be up to, given his playing style.  See comment at top of page 9.

Be that as it may, I harbor no umbrage toward you and apologize if I gave you pain.  If there was a foul, it was certainly unintentional.  You have seen me in the Forum before and should know that if I intend a foul it is quite clear.  I just want the record straight that I did not endorse the strategy.  It is too early to tell what John is up to and, I rather suspect John may not have made up his mind yet.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/12/2013 8:11:47 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: princep01

What is this, pile on Moose week?
 
Well, perhaps you should take a step back and review your comment to mine.  I, in no way, endorsed John's "deep battle" strategy, if that is, indeed, in the making.  However, your response indicates that I did endorse it.  My observation was was meerly a suggestion as to what he might be up to, given his playing style.  See comment at top of page 9.


You said: "So, he does deep battle against New Zealand on the east and Perth on the west, isolates Oz, and then moves against Oz itself. Maybe...that would seem to be his playing style. All those subs parked off Kiwiland....is he doing the same over at Perth?"

I said: "Style, smyle.

It's freakin' January 1942! So he "isolates" (huh? It's a darn big CONTINENT), Oz. So what? He has a myriad of undone tasks all over the map and the amphib bonus burning up daily. He's putting awnings on the windows while the foundation is leaking like a sieve. CR should ENCOURAGE such adventuring. Get out of his way, let him rampage 4000 miles from his logistics. Go nuts, Japan. Enjoy."

"Style, smyle" had a grinning emoticon. I was prefacing the next lines. IOW, style is nice, but it can't substitute for content, which John's moves on NZ and Oz lack in a strategic sense. Not that he doesn't have a "style", but that it's a bad one if he wants to win. Nothing about your point, which again I happen to agree with. John is often rash and impetuous, liking to run hither and yon and "blow stuff up." But often at the cost of a cohesive plan. At least to this observer.

The second paragraph is all about John. That's who "he" is.

Sorry if I come off as sensitive, but I feel as if my integrity and writing ability was questioned this week in several places on the forum. I try very hard to say what I mean around here.

Sorry, CR.


Be that as it may, I harbor no umbrage toward you and apologize if I gave you pain.  If there was a foul, it was certainly unintentional.  You have seen me in the Forum before and should know that if I intend a foul it is quite clear.  I just want the record straight that I did not endorse the strategy.  It is too early to tell what John is up to and, I rather suspect John may not have made up his mind yet.

On that we agree. He's hanging his laundry out all over the place.




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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 3:42:14 AM   
Canoerebel


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1/31/42
 
Gents:  I haven't read much of the back and forth yet, but I appreciate all the thoughts posted in here.  There's nobody that's posting in here that I don't welcome with open arms, affectionate pecks on the cheek (when I'm in a French frame of mind), and an IBC root beer.

NoPac:  An IJN sub may have caught a whiff of my carrier patrol aircraft in the Gulf of Alaska.  That's just one of those things that happen.  Whether John sees it and what he makes of it is the question.

SoPac:  The KB moved well to the east of New Zealand and sank a ship previously damaged during a raid on Auckland.  With KB that far east, QE will sail up the west side of NZ and, if the opportunity presents itself, cut the angle and scoot up towards Fiji.  (Cribtop, I hooted at your narrative.  You need to be writing this AAR, not me!).

DEI:  Very interesting development at Singapore.  John's email noted there was a "phantom" shock attack by one of his divisions at Singers - against orders - but that when he opened his file none of his divisions had been damaged.  I am positive he is dissembling here, because the points total for army losses for Japan jumped from 395 to 430.  That could only be explained by the 295 squads destroyed at Singers as shown on the combat replay.  I think John is dissembling in hopes I won't attack his demoralized rabble of an army.  What I think happened is that he meant to order all of his three divisions to attack, but actually only gave orders to Imperial Guards, which got torched.  John's got problems on his hands at Singers, but it's 100% of his own making.  What's he doing trying to take Singers with just three divisions committed?  An a separate note, DEI Branch of the KB is nearing Merak.

China:  MLR continues to look good.  No attacks by Japan in several days.

John: In a follow up email, John noted he was glad to see January come to an end as the Imperial Army had performed very badly.  To be open about this, it's performed badly only because John has shown some poor judgment in ordering a variety of attacks at Clark, Singers, and in China when the odds were clearly bad.  John's actually done very well in the game to date, but I think his mindset reflects a player who is in disarray a bit, unsure what to do next.


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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 4:13:47 AM   
Cribtop


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Thanks for the compliment on my little joke!

At Singapore, you are beginning to get an opening. What can you do to take advantage? I would feint a counterattack in Malaya (paras on a rear area base or something) to induce panic. The real move comes elsewhere, though. Maybe you can make hay in the Solomons (the SLoC if he is going for NZ), or add more punch in NOPAC? I'm not saying overextend or go crazy, but pressure now may really throw John out of kilter.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 4:18:47 AM   
Alfred

 

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Reference has been made to "deep battle" and Nemo.

It is a pity that Nemo no longer frequents this forum because if he did, he would quickly point out that the current KB operations off New Zealand is not a "deep battle" operation. From a strategic POV, he would not be complimentary of the overall Japanese play.

Alfred

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 4:26:23 AM   
JeffK


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Can JIII be suffering from having too many games running and hasnt got them (and the different mods) straight in his head.

I would be very careful about trying anything ambitious at the moment, often the JFB has an opening wave then a lull as he gets his stuff together for a second wave.

One thought I have been building is that the AFB has to do something with his CV, very carefully, to build up the experience of his aircrews. While pretty good for the Allies, they are still well behind the KB pilots especially as the JFB has been conquering the world.

Take steps, but tiny ones at the moment and ignore all thoughts about bombing Tokyo for the moment.

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 4:37:07 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Take steps, but tiny ones at the moment and ignore all thoughts about bombing Tokyo for the moment.

But ... but .... how will we get rid of Ben Affleck then??

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I have not yet begun to fight! OTOH I have not yet begun to flee. Hmmmmm - choices, choices -always with the choices.

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Post #: 293
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 5:30:42 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel


DEI:  Very interesting development at Singapore.  John's email noted there was a "phantom" shock attack by one of his divisions at Singers - against orders - but that when he opened his file none of his divisions had been damaged.  I am positive he is dissembling here, because the points total for army losses for Japan jumped from 395 to 430.  That could only be explained by the 295 squads destroyed at Singers as shown on the combat replay.  I think John is dissembling in hopes I won't attack his demoralized rabble of an army.  What I think happened is that he meant to order all of his three divisions to attack, but actually only gave orders to Imperial Guards, which got torched.  John's got problems on his hands at Singers, but it's 100% of his own making.  What's he doing trying to take Singers with just three divisions committed?  An a separate note, DEI Branch of the KB is nearing Merak.



I've been watching football for about 13 hours straight, so . . . but could this result be as simple as ordering all three to go, but leaving one on Move and two on Combat, and having the Move get there first, fail the 1/3 test on the causeway, and get creamed?

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RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 5:32:08 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Reference has been made to "deep battle" and Nemo.

It is a pity that Nemo no longer frequents this forum because if he did, he would quickly point out that the current KB operations off New Zealand is not a "deep battle" operation. From a strategic POV, he would not be complimentary of the overall Japanese play.

Alfred


Not to put words in his (absent) mouth, but Deep Battle as a concept presupposes an overall strategic goal which is worth the risk of going deep. It isn't about going deep just in order to whack small fry.

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The Moose

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 295
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 6:12:51 AM   
BBfanboy


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From: Winnipeg, MB
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John IIIs strike on Aukland made me think that he was expecting to catch allied carriers or at least heavy cruisers there. CR knows how vulnerable Sydney is in the first six months and if he had planned on having the CVs in SoPac he might well have sent them to Aukland. John III knows this, so when the US CVs disappeared he may have guessed, based on CRs historic preferences, that they were sent toward SoPac to defend in either Australian or Indian Ocean waters. The pincer movement by two of his carrier groups could have been an attempt to corner the allied CVs in NZ or south of Oz. If that was his strategic goal, he lingered too long around NZ after finding only some merchies in the area.

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I have not yet begun to fight! OTOH I have not yet begun to flee. Hmmmmm - choices, choices -always with the choices.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 296
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 6:17:38 AM   
JeffK


Posts: 5197
Joined: 1/26/2005
From: Back in the Office, Can I get my tin hut back!
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

Take steps, but tiny ones at the moment and ignore all thoughts about bombing Tokyo for the moment.

But ... but .... how will we get rid of Ben Affleck then??


Send him to win the BoB.

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Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 297
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 3:23:40 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 14937
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From: Argleton
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The puzzle for me is: why have KB attack Auckland for several days in a row instead of just once?

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(in reply to JeffK)
Post #: 298
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 4:04:26 PM   
Cribtop


Posts: 3778
Joined: 8/10/2008
From: Lone Star Nation
Status: offline
Agreed, why continue once it becomes apparent there are no high value targets present? Inscrutable.

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(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 299
RE: The Good The Bad & The Indifferent - 1/13/2013 4:15:55 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 18244
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: offline
I can't say I'm particularly surprised.

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(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 300
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