For a second I was about to say Saper is cutting it really tight with his pocket south of Rostov just before blizzard, but has the timing perfectly ironed out to retreat once blizzard rules strike. Then I saw you isolated 16th Panzerdivision... Have you managed to destroy it? That would surely be a psychological feat, at least. Saper's try was very ambitious, though.
"Am I winning or is Saper?"
Good question. I have following your AAR regularly, and honestly, Sapers progress and speeds are amazing. The number of operational tanks in his Wehrmacht arsenal speaks that story, as so often for players pushing their mobile formations hard. Very good so, yet what surprises me are your rather low losses. A couple of turns back I had expected you to loose Moscow and be above 4M losses by blizzard. Nada. The game looks still quite open, though of course also his losses are low, but that is perhaps rarher typical for WiTE. So a lot hinges on this blizzard...
Why? Saper only knows. I didn't get why he suddenly began shifting forces away from the strategic Schwerpunkt about 8-10 turns ago, and why then he completely abandoned Moscow and the huge pocket it may have offered about 6 turns ago. See other AARs: often taking Moscow now cuts very tight with December starting, which seems very credible in terms of game balance to me. If Axis succeeds in taking it still in time (or a little late with help of non-affected mountain units), it often yields huge fruits since most Soviet players tend to defend it with very determined major efforts, maybe not always justified by its true economic, manpower or infrastructure value. Maybe its for denying Axis three tier one winter quarters right in reserve range to the front rather than for its direct value.
If Wehrmacht fails, it usually still has sufficient freedom of movement to disengage and do what Saper seems about planning to do for AGS and southern AGC: Disengage and fight a rear-guard action until blizzard rules slacken, or better defensive terrain can be reached. Your choice of Cavalry Corps might do well in the South, though with him having placed major armor formations there and doing a Sir Robin it could be hard to develop exploitable situations. Maybe I'd rather just follow his forces with weak ones of my own there unless Axis minors might become viable targets. Otherwise my eye would be on the Oka and the Tula bend, which looks kind of dangerous. Any terrain around Moscow or towards LG you can recover will make Moscow a much unlikelier and more expensive target for him in 1942...
Thak you for your comments Janh.
I did manage to destroy the 16th panzer. Good for my morale as you say, but doubt it will be a game breaker one way or the other. Saper tells me that he also thought there was a chance of snow in December. I think this explains why he did what he did.
As for Moscow, I think it would have been a very hard nut for Saper to crack. His best chance was in turns 10 to 13 or so, but at that time his supply situation was very poor due to my cavalry raid which cut his rail lines. By turn 14 I had several entrenched lines of defence.
I am pushinh hard around Moscow. But he is retreating out of the Oka "bulge".