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RE: Defending Mother Russia

 
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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 12/23/2012 5:39:45 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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T22 Snow in all Zones.

Saper grinds away towrds Moscow, but I don't think I am in any real danger of losing the City or any major encirclements in this area (famous last words?). I even make 3 successful counter attacks here. I do note however, that 11 of the mobile divisions Saper had in this area have vanished from my radar. That is worrisome.




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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 12/23/2012 5:44:10 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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T22 Voronezh Area

Almost 500 bombers dropped supplies/fuel in this area, so I think this is where at least some of those missing panzers will show up. I reinforce, make some counter attacks and pray.




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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 12/23/2012 5:48:42 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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T22 South

Saper drives forward in the south. I rush in reiforcements and decide to stick it out.

Hey does anyone know if Saper just has to "capture" those 3 towns to activate Army Groups A and B, or does he have to hold all 3 at the same time. I ask because he captured the one furthest West earlier, but I retook it. He will soon have captured the other two, but I think i may be able to hold the one he captured earlier.






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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/23/2012 5:50:20 PM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 12/24/2012 12:32:25 AM   
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He must hold them for a turn.

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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 12/25/2012 8:17:55 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Disgruntled Veteran

He must hold them for a turn.


Thanks DV; but as it turns out that probably won't be a problem for him afterall.

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RE: Defending Mother Russia - 12/25/2012 8:30:42 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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T23

My prayers worked as mud struck in the North Soviet zone which, of course, stopped Saper from pulling whatever he was planning around Voronezh (at least for one turn).

However, in the South Soviet Zone Saper makes better progress than I would have thought he could given his poor fuel at the end of last turn. Of course he is now fairly close to his supply lines so that probably helped him. I forgot to take a screenshot (again!) at the end of my turn. But from the screen shot below from before my turn you can see Saper's progress. He has, in case you are wondering, put the port at Azov out of commission; so I will not be able to use it for supply when he isolates me on his next turn. You will also note that he has his 2 most forward motorized in good fuel supply. On my turn I counterattacked the German units circled in red and occupied their hexes. This at least will cause Saper some supply problems on his turn. However things look grim for the units guarding the last 2 towns, unless I luck out again and get mud in the South Soviet Zone next turn. Not likely, but if it happens the tables will be turned on saper.




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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/25/2012 8:31:58 AM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/27/2012 11:31:10 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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T24 Snow in all Zones.

All screenshots are from after my turn.

Very little activity except in the South near Azov. Below is the screenshot of the Northern area. As you can see Saper's Finns are no where to be seen. Mind you I performed only very limited air reconaissance this turn.






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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/27/2012 11:33:52 PM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/27/2012 11:35:11 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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Moscow Area. I made a few attacks here in preparation of blizzard.




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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/27/2012 11:38:35 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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The Centre.

Saper made some spoiling/soak off attacks here and then captured both Lipetsk and Voronezh. As he pointed out to me if I had put just one more unit in each city he would not have bothered attacking. So 6 more Arms facrories are destroyed. I believe I am going to have to try and run a leaner more efficient Soviet army.

One positive is that the wins earned by the unit defending Voronezh pushed it to Guards status. My first guards division. Usually I have my first by September and by the time blizzard rolls around I have over a dozen.



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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/27/2012 11:55:59 PM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/27/2012 11:51:03 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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Saper may have made a mistake himself in the South. Either he didn't notice that I had snuck an airbase into the hex east of Azov or else he didn't care. As expected on his turn he isolated the units around Azov. But on my turn I was able to use the airbase to get them into "beach head" supply. This in turn allowed me to attack the Wiking SS motorized division in the hex circled in red and re-establish regular supply. If next turn is Blizzard Saper could have real difficulty extricating his panzers from this area. If it is snow he will undoubtedly capture Azov, rout my units and escape; but at least they won't surrender.

In hindsight my forcing a unit to retreat from the hex 2 hexes east of Azov was a mistake. If it is snow, now my units instead of routing out of the encirclement, will retreat to this hex.






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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/27/2012 11:56:38 PM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/28/2012 12:07:26 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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This is the combat report for the attack on the Wiking SS Motorized. This was really a desperation attack for me that I didn't think would work. In particular I didn't think it would work because on his turn Saper had displaced the only HQ I had that was inside the pocket. Therefore the only units I had in "command control" attacking this hex were the 2 cavalry divisions attacking from outside the pocket. Notwithstanding this my units CVs more than doubled in the attack. Can someone explain this to me as I still don't understand the factors go into determining if a units CV will increase in combat or not. I know each unit has to make several "die rolls", but I thought the chances of making these die rolls were much less if they were not within the command radius of their HQ. Did I just get lucky? If so I got "lucky" in a few other attacks and Saper has been"lucky" the whole game.

I know that the attacker stands a much better chance of "making his rolls" than a defender, which explains why attackers CVs almost always increas in cmbat while defenders generally decrease. But it just seems to me that it just goes too far in helping the attacker.




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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/28/2012 12:08:06 AM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/28/2012 11:15:39 AM   
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10 hex command range by-crow, so units were likely in.

It was saper that was unlucky not making the rolls, though it could be a low supply issue as well. By now (T24), the Soviets ought to have exp well above 40 so they will make more of their rolls.

Blizzard guaranteed for the next 9 turns - if saper decides to defend south of the Don you could do some damage.


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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/28/2012 9:06:30 PM   
Wuffer

 

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now or never...

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/29/2012 7:16:10 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

10 hex command range by-crow, so units were likely in.

It was saper that was unlucky not making the rolls, though it could be a low supply issue as well. By now (T24), the Soviets ought to have exp well above 40 so they will make more of their rolls.

Blizzard guaranteed for the next 9 turns - if saper decides to defend south of the Don you could do some damage.




Thank you again gingerbread. After you corrected me before I went back and studied the Random Weather Tables some more; but I missed the revision that blizzard is guaranteed in December 41 and January 42. Now that I know that I really don't know what Saper's plan was as he tells me he saw the airbase. So I don't see how he could have captured Azov even if I hadn't succeeded in that attack. In any event Saper's T25 has been received and he has retreated all of his mobile forces except one that I will trap.

< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/29/2012 7:18:20 AM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 4:58:26 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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T25 First turn of Blizzard.

In some areas I will have to slog my way forward just to make contact with the enemy as Saper has wisely pulled back from all exposed areas to concentrate his forces where he wants to hold on; primarily around Moscow and Rostov. I also beleive he will be resting many divisions in Germany/Poland. In any event, I attack where I can and advance where there is no opposition.

Moscow Area




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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 4:59:51 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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Voronezh Area




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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 5:00:53 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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Stalingrad Area





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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 5:02:11 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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South Area

I do manage to isolate the 16th panzer division.




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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 5:03:27 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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T26 More of the same

North.

Thought I was being clever trapping those units up against the impassable river/lake hexsides; until I re-checked the Rules and realized that it was frozen over and passable.




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< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/30/2012 5:05:04 PM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 5:06:49 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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Tula Area




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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 5:07:55 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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Voronezh Area




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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 5:08:57 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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South




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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 5:39:34 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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Here are the OOB, Losses and Production Numbers

Not sure why it says I have 268 Armament factories, I added them up and I have 299. I thought maybe it was because 31 of them were damaged, but in fact I have far more than 31 damaged and far less than 31 more than 50% damaged. Can anyone explain this?

Not shown on the charts below is that I am only producing 31 T34s a turn.




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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 6:04:24 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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So taking stock now that Blizzard has begun there are some positives and some negatives. On the plus side, my losses are still under 3 million, I have a little over 5.5 million men under arms, Moscow was held and Army Groups A & B were not activated. On the negative side I lost a lot of territory, armament factories and manpower centres. As well very few tank factories were evacuated and Saper's strategic bombing campaign severly damaged my T34 production.

Over all I think this game is still very much up for grabs, but my experience beyond this point is very limited. Indeed my prior game against Saper was the only one of my games to even reach this point, and my postion in that game was very different. So I would very much value what ever input anyone is prepared to give me. Am I winning or is Saper? Is there anything I should be worried about with respect to my production?

To spearhead my Blizzard offensive I have built 12 cavalry corps; each has 2 sapper regiments and 1 tank regt attached to it. I'm not sure I have them in the proper locations. 4 are attached to 1st Shock Army on my right wing in the South. 4 are attached to 2nd shock army in the Tula area. The other 4 are scattered amongst my other armies. Suggestions?

I have several more SUs stored with STAVKA to be attached to my tank corps come May 42. My plan was to be build 10 Tank Corps initially, but I am worried that I will not have enough tanks to go around. Is there anything else I should be doing in preparation for Summer 42?

< Message edited by Harrybanana -- 12/30/2012 6:05:46 PM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/30/2012 8:00:51 PM   
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You will need to save up ARM for the July '42 Rifle Squad upgrade - I'd say at least 600k. That you still have 200k in the pool is something of a miracle (well done), but it will get very tight up ahead. So I don't think you can keep your art SU on 100% TOE.

Use the ARM squeeze on the ground as motivation to figure out how to get maximum use of your air force. They do not cost any ARM (well, the ammo used does, but if they are consuming ammo, some thing's got to be right ).

The early Tank Corps does not contain that many tanks, so a dozen should be possible. Remember to set the TOE% to 50% before they upgrade so as to not flood them with low exp tank ground elements. I favour 3 months of training but others think that is a waste.

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/31/2012 1:45:34 AM   
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana
Not sure why it says I have 268 Armament factories, I added them up and I have 299. I thought maybe it was because 31 of them were damaged, but in fact I have far more than 31 damaged and far less than 31 more than 50% damaged. Can anyone explain this?


Its 2:30am and im wacthing the Cowboy vs Redskins might not be the best of time to write stuff for me, but OTOH. The 268 number is what is actually producing this specific turn. Since when factory are below 50% damage there is a roll included in whether it produces or not. If it passes the roll it produce full, if it fails it produce nada. So lets say u had 240 undamaged facs, u here would have 28 of the below 50% damage succeding = 268 per this turn.
So the 268 is what is undamaged plus those damaged below 50% that succeded rolls in this specific turn. If u checked next turn it would prolly be another number depending on those rolls for the below 50% damaged in that turn.

You have 299 in all, but 268 was able to produce this turn per above.

Hope it helps,

Rasmus

< Message edited by Walloc -- 12/31/2012 1:46:39 AM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/31/2012 10:48:12 AM   
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For a second I was about to say Saper is cutting it really tight with his pocket south of Rostov just before blizzard, but has the timing perfectly ironed out to retreat once blizzard rules strike. Then I saw you isolated 16th Panzerdivision... Have you managed to destroy it? That would surely be a psychological feat, at least. Saper's try was very ambitious, though.

"Am I winning or is Saper?"

Good question. I have following your AAR regularly, and honestly, Sapers progress and speeds are amazing. The number of operational tanks in his Wehrmacht arsenal speaks that story, as so often for players pushing their mobile formations hard. Very good so, yet what surprises me are your rather low losses. A couple of turns back I had expected you to loose Moscow and be above 4M losses by blizzard. Nada. The game looks still quite open, though of course also his losses are low, but that is perhaps rarher typical for WiTE. So a lot hinges on this blizzard...

Why? Saper only knows. I didn't get why he suddenly began shifting forces away from the strategic Schwerpunkt about 8-10 turns ago, and why then he completely abandoned Moscow and the huge pocket it may have offered about 6 turns ago. See other AARs: often taking Moscow now cuts very tight with December starting, which seems very credible in terms of game balance to me. If Axis succeeds in taking it still in time (or a little late with help of non-affected mountain units), it often yields huge fruits since most Soviet players tend to defend it with very determined major efforts, maybe not always justified by its true economic, manpower or infrastructure value. Maybe its for denying Axis three tier one winter quarters right in reserve range to the front rather than for its direct value.

If Wehrmacht fails, it usually still has sufficient freedom of movement to disengage and do what Saper seems about planning to do for AGS and southern AGC: Disengage and fight a rear-guard action until blizzard rules slacken, or better defensive terrain can be reached. Your choice of Cavalry Corps might do well in the South, though with him having placed major armor formations there and doing a Sir Robin it could be hard to develop exploitable situations. Maybe I'd rather just follow his forces with weak ones of my own there unless Axis minors might become viable targets. Otherwise my eye would be on the Oka and the Tula bend, which looks kind of dangerous. Any terrain around Moscow or towards LG you can recover will make Moscow a much unlikelier and more expensive target for him in 1942...

< Message edited by janh -- 12/31/2012 10:49:32 AM >

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/31/2012 10:37:05 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Walloc

quote:

ORIGINAL: Harrybanana
Not sure why it says I have 268 Armament factories, I added them up and I have 299. I thought maybe it was because 31 of them were damaged, but in fact I have far more than 31 damaged and far less than 31 more than 50% damaged. Can anyone explain this?


Its 2:30am and im wacthing the Cowboy vs Redskins might not be the best of time to write stuff for me, but OTOH. The 268 number is what is actually producing this specific turn. Since when factory are below 50% damage there is a roll included in whether it produces or not. If it passes the roll it produce full, if it fails it produce nada. So lets say u had 240 undamaged facs, u here would have 28 of the below 50% damage succeding = 268 per this turn.
So the 268 is what is undamaged plus those damaged below 50% that succeded rolls in this specific turn. If u checked next turn it would prolly be another number depending on those rolls for the below 50% damaged in that turn.

You have 299 in all, but 268 was able to produce this turn per above.

Hope it helps,

Rasmus


That helps explain a lot Ramus. Thank you.

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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 12/31/2012 10:52:50 PM   
Harrybanana

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: janh

For a second I was about to say Saper is cutting it really tight with his pocket south of Rostov just before blizzard, but has the timing perfectly ironed out to retreat once blizzard rules strike. Then I saw you isolated 16th Panzerdivision... Have you managed to destroy it? That would surely be a psychological feat, at least. Saper's try was very ambitious, though.

"Am I winning or is Saper?"

Good question. I have following your AAR regularly, and honestly, Sapers progress and speeds are amazing. The number of operational tanks in his Wehrmacht arsenal speaks that story, as so often for players pushing their mobile formations hard. Very good so, yet what surprises me are your rather low losses. A couple of turns back I had expected you to loose Moscow and be above 4M losses by blizzard. Nada. The game looks still quite open, though of course also his losses are low, but that is perhaps rarher typical for WiTE. So a lot hinges on this blizzard...

Why? Saper only knows. I didn't get why he suddenly began shifting forces away from the strategic Schwerpunkt about 8-10 turns ago, and why then he completely abandoned Moscow and the huge pocket it may have offered about 6 turns ago. See other AARs: often taking Moscow now cuts very tight with December starting, which seems very credible in terms of game balance to me. If Axis succeeds in taking it still in time (or a little late with help of non-affected mountain units), it often yields huge fruits since most Soviet players tend to defend it with very determined major efforts, maybe not always justified by its true economic, manpower or infrastructure value. Maybe its for denying Axis three tier one winter quarters right in reserve range to the front rather than for its direct value.

If Wehrmacht fails, it usually still has sufficient freedom of movement to disengage and do what Saper seems about planning to do for AGS and southern AGC: Disengage and fight a rear-guard action until blizzard rules slacken, or better defensive terrain can be reached. Your choice of Cavalry Corps might do well in the South, though with him having placed major armor formations there and doing a Sir Robin it could be hard to develop exploitable situations. Maybe I'd rather just follow his forces with weak ones of my own there unless Axis minors might become viable targets. Otherwise my eye would be on the Oka and the Tula bend, which looks kind of dangerous. Any terrain around Moscow or towards LG you can recover will make Moscow a much unlikelier and more expensive target for him in 1942...


Thak you for your comments Janh.

I did manage to destroy the 16th panzer. Good for my morale as you say, but doubt it will be a game breaker one way or the other. Saper tells me that he also thought there was a chance of snow in December. I think this explains why he did what he did.

As for Moscow, I think it would have been a very hard nut for Saper to crack. His best chance was in turns 10 to 13 or so, but at that time his supply situation was very poor due to my cavalry raid which cut his rail lines. By turn 14 I had several entrenched lines of defence.

I am pushinh hard around Moscow. But he is retreating out of the Oka "bulge".



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RE: Defending Mother Russia Saper vs Harrybanana (No Sa... - 1/1/2013 12:19:06 AM   
Harrybanana

 

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T27

I continue to push and try to trap as many German units as I can. Saper retreats everywhere except around Moscow and Rostov.

North: No Finns and not much action.




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