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RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq

 
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RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/2/2012 9:25:37 PM   
Sredni

 

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Attempts to tie sandy to global warming seem particularly cynical and suspect when looking back through weather history. Sandy doesn't seem particularly unusual or exceptional when considering that storms like it happen regularly and fairly often on the scale of time weather should be measured to.

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Post #: 91
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/2/2012 10:30:50 PM   
Panther Bait


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The only things particularly exceptional about Sandy were that 1) it was a fairly large (area-wise) hurricane and 2) it happened to move over an area susceptible to storm-surge flooding that also happened to have a very large human population.  GW might possibly had some small part of item 1.  It obviously has nothing at all to do with item 2.

Mike

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Post #: 92
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/2/2012 11:21:31 PM   
Kwik E Mart


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...just finished reading this thread...reminded me of Crichton's book "State of Fear"...he took a lot of heat from the academic world, but that doesn't surprise me if the below assersions that were claimed to have been made by him in the story are true...the second one is especially galling to me...

(from Wikipedia)
Various assertions appear in the book, for example:

- The science behind global warming is so incomplete that no reasonable conclusions can be drawn on how to solve the "problem" (or if the "problem" even exists).
- Elites in various fields use either real or artificial crises to maintain the existing social order, misusing the "science" behind global warming.
- As a result of potential conflicts of interest, the scientists conducting research on topics related to global warming may subtly change their findings to bring them in line with their funding sources.


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Post #: 93
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/3/2012 3:48:00 AM   
crsutton


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I believe in global warming and that it is caused by humans. Of course, I realize that some doubt that this is true. And realize that in a complicated matter such as this there is valid evidence to raise doubt.

However, I look at it like I would a game of poker. The first rule is that you never gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are 100% flat out sure that global warming is not happening then I can't really say much to you. My questions is how many of you only just "doubt" that global warming is an issue.

My point here is that if you are wrong-even if there is only a 5% chance you are wrong, then you are accepting a %5 risk of a calamity of biblical proportions. Even a 1% risk of this sort of disaster is out of the question in my mind.

I for one am not 100% convinced about global warming, but I am convinced enough that I think we have to take action before it is too late.

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Post #: 94
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/4/2012 8:17:23 PM   
Frank


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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

I believe in global warming and that it is caused by humans. Of course, I realize that some doubt that this is true. And realize that in a complicated matter such as this there is valid evidence to raise doubt.

However, I look at it like I would a game of poker. The first rule is that you never gamble more than you can afford to lose. If you are 100% flat out sure that global warming is not happening then I can't really say much to you. My questions is how many of you only just "doubt" that global warming is an issue.

My point here is that if you are wrong-even if there is only a 5% chance you are wrong, then you are accepting a %5 risk of a calamity of biblical proportions. Even a 1% risk of this sort of disaster is out of the question in my mind.

I for one am not 100% convinced about global warming, but I am convinced enough that I think we have to take action before it is too late.


Crsutton,
There is 0 evidence, that CO2 has anything to do with warming. There is 0 evidence, that there is manmade global warming at all (not the last 16 years at least!). There is plenty of evidence, that warming is something normal, eg the medieval warmtime. There is plenty of evidence, that temperature on earth is depending on clouds and sun activity.
So, no. There is not even a 0,04% chance, that warming is manmade. It is just a way to make people do what some ecoterrorists want us to do: give them or money and stop living a somehow luxury lifestyle. those peole are sick. They hate mankind.
Don´t let you fool by those thugs!

< Message edited by Frank -- 11/4/2012 8:18:25 PM >


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Post #: 95
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/4/2012 8:19:45 PM   
Frank


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Just read the news on the net and watched news on TV. Horrible, how some people suffer from the results of this storm.
Is there something I can do? Is there some community member who needs help?

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Post #: 96
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/4/2012 10:27:38 PM   
US87891

 

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Wow, Somebody pushed JWE's button:
"Of course there is climate change. Is the globe warming? Very likely. Archeo-sociologists have determined that the 800-1100AD period was much warmer than today form contemporary Norse and Medieval monastic records (Greenland, Vinland, Alps, Appenines), and inferences from China (Mongol increase). And the Beaker culture in 3000 BC flourished in regions that are today considered marginal. But Sociologists are not allowed to talk to Climatologists, in this day and age because the Danes, Monks, Chinese and Beakers, didn’t record temperatures. Doesn’t matter that they recorded specific crops that only grew in certain temperature zones, because, hey, crops ain’t temps.

Yep, climate is changing. Might be getting warmer. Has a ways to go till it gets to written history extremes, to say nothing of the warming period both before and after the last major ice age. How in the world does one expect a migrating peoples to cross a land bridge between SIBERIA and ALASKA if it’s COLD? And how does one explain the neolithic cave drawings of hunted species that just don’t thrive in very cold climates.

Dude, we have been here before, many times before. It is a fact of life in a dynamic model of the Solar system, of which we happen to be a part.

So here’s the political part that I won’t mind if matrix burns. I was a Physicist and my profs told me to go private because I wouldn’t make squat as a “scientist” except in a University. And even then I’d have to tweak my research to conform to the Grant parameters. I couldn’t do what I thought right, only what was considered appropriate.

There is no room, today, for a climatologist/planetologist who cannot develop grants, and there are no grants available to those climatologists/planetologist s who do not conform to the political imperitives of the govt in power.

And that’s just what we got; an entire class of environmental scientists that are funded solely by govt and who must, simply must, spout the govt line or lose all their funding. These people have wives and children and no place else to go, so it’s either play along or work at MacDonalds. Great choice, don’t ya think?

Why is Global Warming so significant in Western politics? I think Frank has a good take on that. Politicians will always work to increase their power. Even though there is nothing that can do about it, they can nevertheless create and institute massive beaucratic infrastructures, with many high level positions, that they can award to their political supporters.

Cynical? You bet your bippy! Real? Doubt I’m cynical enough!"

(in reply to Frank)
Post #: 97
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/4/2012 10:53:28 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Frank
Is there something I can do?


Hi Frank,

I think the International Red Cross or the American Red Cross are actively soliciting donations to support their efforts in helping victims of Sandy. Nice of you to think about helping out from so far away.

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Post #: 98
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/5/2012 2:06:34 AM   
JohnDillworth


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Got power, lights and Internet back. Out since Monday. Long Island got roughed up. Even after a week public transportation is down to 45%, 300,000 without heat or power, gas is next to impossible to find and local law enforcement has to keep the peace when a tanker shows up. The 2 counties that make up Long Island lost 100,000 homes and businesses, gone. The South Shore took a huge tidal surge that moved or breached many of the barrier Islands, the North Shore, more heavenly wooded, lost tens of thousands of trees. A bit of bad behavior, but the vast majority have been wonderful, offering hot meals, showers, phone charges and whatever else. Getting back to normal will take a bit but we are on our way


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Post #: 99
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/5/2012 2:41:06 AM   
Canoerebel


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John, can you clarify the "lost 100,000 homes and businesses" in Long Island's two counties? That can't be right. I can understand hundreds of homes being badly damaged or destroyed, but 100,000?

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Post #: 100
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/5/2012 3:29:02 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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"The authorities estimated that as many as 100,000 homes and businesses on Long Island had been destroyed or badly damaged in the storm, from bedroom communities in Nassau County to the towns of the South Shore to Long Island’s notable summer refuges — Fire Island, the Hamptons, Jones Beach — which were ravaged by the storm. Sand dunes were flattened and whole rows of beach houses crushed. The storm’s furious flood tide created new inlets that could become permanent parts of the topography.

“Fire Island is changed forever,” Steve Bellone, the Suffolk County executive, said at a news conference.

As Hurricane Sandy approached, Long Island appeared to be well out of its path. But the storm’s incredibly wide, counterclockwise swirl of damaging winds and rain, combined with an unusually high tide, sent a huge storm surge along its top like a right hook, slamming both the north and south shores of the island.

Many communities along the coast felt as if they were marooned, with cellphone reception spotty and power showing no signs of returning. Floods washed out roads, and the winds scattered cars across the beach, foiling the owners’ hopes of leaving.

Neighbors have been left to trade rumors about which hospitals were accepting patients, which streets had been hit by looters and whether the water was safe to drink.

An outsider who stopped to visit a darkened house in Long Beach was peppered with questions about the outside world. “The lines of communication have been very bad,” said Lincoln Jawahir, 49, who was among a group of neighborhood men who stayed behind to repair their homes by day and guard them by night.

And for those who made it out in search of supplies or news, confusion reigned. “People are on line but they don’t even know what they’re on line for,” said Lou Safonte, an information-technology engineer in Melville, where gas station lines stretched for blocks. "


http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nyregion/fractured-recovery-a-week-after-hurricane-sandy.html?pagewanted=all

Much of the reporting has been from Manhattan, which is where the media lives. Long Island's story has not been told yet.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 11/5/2012 3:30:16 AM >


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Post #: 101
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/5/2012 12:39:50 PM   
JohnDillworth


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quote:

John, can you clarify the "lost 100,000 homes and businesses" in Long Island's two counties? That can't be right. I can understand hundreds of homes being badly damaged or destroyed, but 100,000?

Thanks Moose. The local power Authority is reporting about the same. It's pretty densely populated in some areas and sparse in some areas. NY State and Robert Moses were wise to make many of the most vulnerable areas into parks in the 1930's, but some of the barrier islands had year round populations (Long Beach, Fire Island). It's the areas behind the barrier islands on the other side of the South Bay that are heavily populated but just a few feet above sea level that got hit hard. Breezy Point and Rockaway are on he same sand bar but are technically part of NYC. There is an Aircraft carrier parked off Rockaway. I think they are doing food relief and supply some Marines to Staten Island for clean up. And yet many people are going to work. Life goes on. I'm going to sit tight a couple more days. I work on the City's 911 system so I made it in last week, but we are solid there. All worked well. Quite a mess to clean up though. There is some spotty "social disorder" but for the most part folks have really stepped up. I think it was wise not to bring in the National Guard for security or impose heavy curfews, people would have panicked. Getting colder each night so the priority is to get people in warm places tonight. It's all good

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Post #: 102
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/5/2012 12:52:11 PM   
JohnDillworth


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I'm on the North Shore but on a hill above the harbor. The area I live it is heavily wooded so we took storm surge, tree and power damage. The areas on the South Shore took the real hit. The big Island, Fire Island, is now breached and is 2 islands and no long provides much protection to the south shore behind the island. That breach can not be filled, it is permanent. Staten Island in NYC took a bad hit as did the Rockaways. Sad thing is these areas are where many NYPD and FDNY live. They took a bit emotional hit on 911. Long Beach and the areas next to the Great South Bay are the hardest hit on Long Island and where most of the lost homes and business are. I suspect we may have to re-think living in some of the areas hardest hit, there are just 10 feet or so above sea level.




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Post #: 103
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/5/2012 1:21:26 PM   
Canoerebel


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100,000 is an unimagineable number. Just beyond comprehension. And just on Long Island? With New Jersey, Staten Island, and many other places also very hard hit. I cannot wrap my mind around this.

I'm pretty familiar with hurricanes. I grew up in Miami. My dad founded Hurricane Engineering Company. My sister lost her house in Andrew. I saw Katrina and Hugo. All three of those were epic, but I don't think any of them affected that many houses and businesses.

I take it that storm surge (and the fire at Breezy Point) were the biggest culprits. While the winds were powerful, they weren't out of the real of what you experience from time to time. But the affect of wind, high tide, and storm surge truly pushed this into the realm of Katrina and Andrew.

Of course, a storm is epic to one person if it destroys his house, so I don't mean to minimize any storm. But when you lose dozens or scores of houses (in a tornado, for instance), you rebuild quickly. When you lose hundreds it becomes a nightmare. When you lose hundreds of thousands you really have to apply a logarithmic scale to understand what happened and the impact.

Good luck to all the folks in Sandy's way.

On a lighter side note, Sandy was felt strongly as far south as the southern Appalachians. On Saturday, Oct. 27, two ladies completed the northern half of the App. Trail in Greaty Smoky Mountains National Park. They were wearing shorts even though it was modestly cool. Two days later, the Sandy snow storm began. Three feet of snow fell over two days, sustained winds of 50 miles an hour, temperatures in the low 20s. One backpacker had to be rescued by helicopter.

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Post #: 104
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/5/2012 4:27:12 PM   
Frank


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Hm, the US Red Cross has to learn, that there are countries out of the US, too.
Treid to fill the form, but stupid program insisted in some zip-code and phone number I wasn´t able to supply. Is there a possibility to change that idiocy?

So I had to use the Bavarian Red Cross site. I hope the money will reach the US.

Good luck to all who suffered from this storm.



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Post #: 105
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/5/2012 4:31:13 PM   
Frank


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From: Bayern
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Frank
Is there something I can do?


Hi Frank,

I think the International Red Cross or the American Red Cross are actively soliciting donations to support their efforts in helping victims of Sandy. Nice of you to think about helping out from so far away.


Chickenboy,
Grafenwöhr (Graftown, for those guys who had the "pleasure" to have to train their combat readiness over here in Germany), the city I am living, has a very large American community (6000 Germans, about 8000 Americans). I think, I have more American neighbours than German ones. Some are good friends. I even know some of the guys posting here quite good. So the US might be far away geographically from me, but not from my mind.

< Message edited by Frank -- 11/5/2012 4:32:53 PM >


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If you like what I said love me,if you dislike what I say ignore me!

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Post #: 106
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/5/2012 4:32:35 PM   
JohnDillworth


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Here are some good pictures from the region. Mostly NYC. Weird losing the subways. Many are back now.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/hurricane-sandy-strikes-east-coast-gallery-1.1194577

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Post #: 107
RE: OT...Here comes 'Frankenstorm'Iq - 11/6/2012 2:18:08 PM   
bjmorgan


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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

I believe in global warming and that it is caused by humans. Of course, I realize that some doubt that this is true....

Sounds like a religion.

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Post #: 108
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