OT: A burning question..

Gary Grigsby’s War in the East: The German-Soviet War 1941-1945 is a turn-based World War II strategy game stretching across the entire Eastern Front. Gamers can engage in an epic campaign, including division-sized battles with realistic and historical terrain, weather, orders of battle, logistics and combat results.

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Footslogger
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OT: A burning question..

Post by Footslogger »

Since Operation Sealion would not have worked, and Germany had a small navy at the time, I wonder what would happen if?

Lets say that Germans didn't attack the Soviet Union in 1941, but a later date like in 1942 or whenever Stalin wanted to. And since the Germans were poised to attack the British back in 1940, that makes 2 years for Germany to build a navy. Would that have worked?



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Ketza
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by Ketza »

Not really.

I would explain my position but I have had a little too much to drink tonight.

*hic*
Aurelian
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by Aurelian »

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ ... plan-z.htm

In January 1939 Hitler approved the Z-Plan building program and subsequently abrogated the Anglo-German Naval Agreement, with the understanding that he would take all the necessary diplomatic actions to prevent war prior to 1944. The invasion of Poland on 1 September 1939, made Hitler's intentions for immediate war crystal clear and the Z-Plan was no longer a viable option. The naval building plan shifted focus to the rapid completion of the two battleships and cruiser already under construction. The submarine building program was accelerated to produce twenty to thirty U-boats per month
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DorianGray
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by DorianGray »

From what I recall from various readings on the subject of Sealion, German air superiority over the English channel was an absolute necessity - one that was never fully achieved by the Luftwaffe for a variety of reasons.

If air superiority could have been achieved there is the possibility that the German Kriegsmarine (with Luftwaffe & U-boat support) would have been able to support an amphibious landing in 1940 while the British were still recovering from staggering equipment losses that they just suffered in northern France. Additionally, the British were ill prepared to withstand an amphibious assault in 1940.

Another year or two of German naval production would not have been sufficient enough to overcome 2 years of defensive preperation by the British. By that time the British would have their own "Atlantic Wall".

From 1940-1942, Germany only produced a handful of new capital ships and 0 aircraft carriers. Many of these were already in the works before the war began in 1939.

Now, there is the possibility of a German / Italian amphibious assault *if* Gibralter could be taken to allow the Italian fleet into the north Atlantic, but that is another discussion entirely.


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Footslogger
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by Footslogger »

Very interesting![8D] What did the Italians have? I do remember Mussolini telling Hitler that it would be 7 Years before he was ready for war. And more about the Gibralter defenses too.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by DorianGray »

http://www.comandosupremo.com/RegiaMarina.html

Italy had a sizeable WWII surface fleet.

If Gibralter could be secured by the Axis (unleahing the Italian fleet into the Atlantic), it is very plausible for a joint German / Italian naval operation to acheive the required naval supreriority in the Altantic sufficient enough to support a cross-channel amphibious assault.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by Apollo11 »

Hi all,

Whilst theoretically possible - the Italian warships were made only with Mediterranean operations in mind... [;)]

Also, whilst looking beautiful, Italian warships were inferior to British counterparts in almost every aspect... Italian Navy war record (except for few bright exceptions) was abysmal at the best... [:D]


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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by carlkay58 »

The Italian Navy also had one of the largest handicaps in the world at the time - the Italian Navy command. The Italian Navy very rarely ventured out of port - the fear of losing or damaging one of their ships froze them into place and they never really attempted to take on the Royal Navy in the Med let alone elsewhere.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by turtlefang »

The Germans only had a short time to make a Sea Lion operation work. The longer the British had after the fall of France to prepare, the less likely an invasion had a chance to succeed. The British Army simply would rearm faster than any German naval building campaign could produce ships or landing craft.

The Germans, even without and invasion of Russia, would still face:

1) Having to station a large garrison on the East Front; remember, the Soviets had increased thier army by millions of men in 1939-40 and they only had one target. So Hitler would have had to position the majority of his army on the East Front even if he had not invaded.
2) The German's demobilzed thier war industry footing after the fall of France. Without the East Front going to a full war time footing to build up the navy would have been highly unpopular and highly unlikely. Heck, even with it, it wasn't until late 43 or 44 that Germany achieved a full war time footing.
3) The British has such a lead in naval forces that it would have taken mor than 2 yrs for the Germans to catch up. They might have been able to put more resources into the UBoat campaign but that would only have indirectly help an invasion, not directly help by starving Britian of resources.
4) The Italian Navy, while it would add a lot to the German strenght, just wasn't up to the task. The Italian BB were light weights compared to the British BBs, they were not designed to function at thier optimium level in the Atlantic, and many didn't come on line until middle or late 42.

Bottomline, if the Germans weren't ready in 40, they lost thier chance. And they weren't ready in 40.
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Klydon
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by Klydon »

The Italian fleet was numerically large and while the new battleships (Littorio) were very good and on a even footing with any British Battleship afloat, there were not enough of them and the older battleships were inferior to anything the British called a battleship. Most of the heavy cruisers outside of the Zara class were very lightly armored.

The issue for the Germans was not necessarily getting an invasion force ashore, but rather keeping it in supply and have the ability to send reenforcements.

The benefit for a delay for the Germans was not necessarily for the Kriegsmarine, but rather developments for the Luftwaffe. One of the big reasons the Germans lost the Battle of Britain was because the Me-109's were so short legged and drop tanks were not available. This left the bomber force vulnerable to RAF countermeasures. A delay would have meant a stronger RAF as well, but by then drop tanks would have been available and depending on when action was started, the British could have been facing FW-190's. While the 109 and Spitfire were about even, the 190 was a vastly superior aircraft in so many ways.

Sea Lion was in trouble for two big reasons even before the Battle of Britain started. The first was the losses and damage suffered by the Kriegsmarine during the Norwegian campaign and the second was the successful withdraw of the BEF from France. Even though the solders did not have much in the way of equipment, they were still trained and were not green troops. Had Britain needed to raise new formations AND equip them, a smaller German invasion force may have gotten the job done.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by Footslogger »

And if the Luftwaffe put its' research into high gear, I wonder what kind of planes it would have come out with? A heavy bomber force? Better planes for paratroop drops? Plus higher production of aircraft could have been better during the Battle for Britian. I think the Germans could of used Luftwaffes I, II, and III and have Luftwaffe IV in defense of the eastern front.

If you remeber the battle for Crete, the 7th parachute and 5th mountain Divisons took heavy losses and Hitler forbid any kind of operation like that agian. I suppose Hitler never wanted to attack the British. But attacking the Russians so early, without taking down the British first I believe to be a mistake.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by jaw »

ORIGINAL: Footslogger

Since Operation Sealion would not have worked, and Germany had a small navy at the time, I wonder what would happen if?

Lets say that Germans didn't attack the Soviet Union in 1941, but a later date like in 1942 or whenever Stalin wanted to. And since the Germans were poised to attack the British back in 1940, that makes 2 years for Germany to build a navy. Would that have worked?




Your supposition ignores the fundamental reason Germany went to war in the first place: to expand the Reich eastward to secure the resources necessary to make Germany a true superpower. Diverting additional resources to invade Britian in 1941 would do nothing to improve Germany's resource position while giving the Soviet Union even more time to restructure the Red Army and further expand its military production. Given his war objectives, Hitler was correct to abandon Sea Lion in favor of Barbarossa.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by turtlefang »

jaw -

Excellent point.

And there is no reason to believe that Stalin would wait two years to declare war on Germany. He was convinced that a showdown was coming, it only remained when and who struck first, not if.

Or than Japan would still not have launched Pearl Harbor and the US entered the war. Which would have radically changed Britain ability to defend itself.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by Footslogger »

[/quote]

Your supposition ignores the fundamental reason Germany went to war in the first place: to expand the Reich eastward to secure the resources necessary to make Germany a true superpower. Diverting additional resources to invade Britian in 1941 would do nothing to improve Germany's resource position while giving the Soviet Union even more time to restructure the Red Army and further expand its military production. Given his war objectives, Hitler was correct to abandon Sea Lion in favor of Barbarossa.

[/quote]

From the different interprations, I'm not sure if Hitler could ever win. Many times I have heard that the main problem was Hitler himself.

If you were in Hitler's place, what would you have done different?
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by TulliusDetritus »

ORIGINAL: jaw
Your supposition ignores the fundamental reason Germany went to war in the first place: to expand the Reich eastward to secure the resources necessary to make Germany a true superpower. Diverting additional resources to invade Britian in 1941 would do nothing to improve Germany's resource position while giving the Soviet Union even more time to restructure the Red Army and further expand its military production. Given his war objectives, Hitler was correct to abandon Sea Lion in favor of Barbarossa.

Well, but Hitler also had said that fighting (in WW1) a two fronts war had been a big mistake and that he would be avoiding that. In fact, this is (along with the German structural weakness which made a long war prohibitive) the deep reasoning behind the Blitzkrieg Doctrine (because politics -and not the other way around- shape military operations). Quick, lethal blows, one step (or enemy), then another one. Finish one enemy, then bring another one.

Not finishing the British proved Herr Hitler was a sloppy guy. I doubt they would have finished them in the first place. The British were realist and knew that despite the mighty Royal Navy, perhaps they could not stop the Germans from assaulting the British Isles. The important, vital issue was to cut these forces off though. And this they thought they could 100% do it. Then the isolated units would be more or less harmless and could be finished or at least neutralized.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by Schmart »

ORIGINAL: Footslogger
From the different interprations, I'm not sure if Hitler could ever win. Many times I have heard that the main problem was Hitler himself.

If you were in Hitler's place, what would you have done different?

There is the fundamental German problem of a two-front war. They were pretty much damned if you do damned if you don't. Had they focused on France/Britain in 1939 (avoiding Poland until later), it might have given them the breathing space to later take on the east, but was the Wehrmacht of 1939 capable of taking on France and Britain like it did in 1940? I'm not so sure. The rapid collapse of Poland probably did much to demoralize the French and British in 1940.

One of the few chances of success would've required full-war production right from the start, not the half-hearted production (and even scaled-back production at certain times) before 1943. Then there was all the in-fighting between regional party officials and administrations running as mini personal empires, rather than full committment to the war. Even when Speer starting turning the economy around, the fragmented, un-coordinated, and inefficient design and production system along with resistance from regional party officials were obstacles right until the bitter end.

Compare the Allied total war production effort to that of the Germans: Scrap metal/material drives, women in factories, suspending pretty much all non-essential civilian production, etc. The Germans were a long-ways off to any of that.

Basically, the Nazis mis-managed the German war economy in the 1930s, and failed to implement the appropriate production policies and planning. Ego, self-interest and delusion were the order of the day for those in charge of production pre-Speer. It was the politically reliable good 'ol boys from the SA/brown shirt days that moved up the ladder and were running society/government at that point. These were not gifted industrialists, managers, bureaucrats, etc. They were goons and bullies. The Nazi party system was very far from the model of German efficiency. It was rotten to its core and short of handing things over to the Army and a Speer-like organizing committee in the late 1930s (of course that would have entailed subordinating Nazi ideology to other interests, naturally defeating the whole purpose of seizing power), they had no real hope.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by carlkay58 »

Hitler overreached himself. First he overreached politically and then economically and then militarily. A fatal combination to anyone in history regardless of abilities. Napoleon had done the same 140 years earlier.

Hitler was able to rebuild the military and the West did nothing. He then marched back into the Ruhr and the West did nothing. He merged Austria into Greater Germany and the West did nothing. He took over Czechoslovakia and the West applauded 'Peace in our Time'. So he continued into Poland and was utterly shocked that the West declared war! But the West then stood still and watched as Germany quickly conquered Poland and shared portions of it with the Soviets. So the war began when Hitler overreached politically.

Then the Soviets invaded the Baltic States and the West did nothing. The West stood by and watched the Soviets fight the Finns and outlast them. The only aid the Finns really got came from Germany. So Germany invaded Denmark and Norway and turned the French and British troops back with minor difficulties. But France and Britain continued being at war with Germany - so Germany went after France and the lowland countries (Belgium, Luxemburg, and the Netherlands). Ooops - less than six weeks later and only Britain remained! But then the treaty with France ended up with Greater Germany adding a lot of area and population but very little additional farm land - so Hitler overreached economically as the bad situation within Germany before the war became even worse as he added more additional people than additional food resources. So the food shortage was increasing and becoming even more critical.

Britain refused to make peace or release their blockade. This meant that Germany needed to find another food source quickly. Defeating the British would only increase the food problems - once again adding more people and very little additional food resources. And with the British obstinance, the British government could fall back on Canada or India and continue its naval blockade on all of Europe. So there was only a single direction left to go - east. The Ukraine was the breadbasket of the Soviet Union. It produced more food and had more agricultural land France and Germany combined. There really was no where else Hitler could turn to for food within reach. As long as the US food exports were denied them, there just was no other large food source available.

So then Hitler overreached himself militarily and went East into the Soviet Union. The rest is WitE!

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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by turtlefang »

"Everything I undertake is directed against Russia. If the West is too stupid and too blind to comprehend this, I will be forced to reach an understanding with the Russians, turn and strike the West, and then after their defeat turn back against the Soviet Union with my collected strength. I need the Ukraine and with that no one can starve us out as they did in the last war."

Hitler to Burckhardt August 11, 1939

It sums up what happened, and lays out at one least one strategy as to why.
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by Rufus T. Firefly »

Speaking of over-reaching, I've always wondered "what if" the Germans had forseen the easy conquest of France (which if I recall somewhat surprised them) and had planned Sealion in advance as a single unified operation with the invasion of France. Build and mobolize sufficient barges in advance. Concentrate on destroying the British Air and ground forces on the continent, even if it slowed the blitzkreig. As it was, the British were left so reeling after Dunkirk that a sudden decent on the coast by a couple of German divisions *might* have brought about a quick surrender. Or not.

It is of course rather absurd to imagine that anyone would ever have the foresight to consider, let alone be able do deal with the practical difficulties of putting together such a plan, but it is fun to think about wargaming it.
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turtlefang
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RE: OT: A burning question..

Post by turtlefang »

In my opinion, the German's simply had no chance of making Sea Lion work unless the British were completely incompentent.

1) The German airforce did not have an effective torpedo until the finally borrowed the Italian torpedo. The German aerial torpedo simply didn't work.
2) German level bombers and dive bombers proved highly ineffective in the first part of the war. They had neither the training or the right bombs for naval attacks at this time - and during 1940 & 41, when they did attack British naval units, did not succeed.
3) The British station a large number of destroyers, light cruisers, heavy crusiers and BB in home waters. These British were perfectly willing to commit these warships to the channel to stop any invasion. These included up to 70 DDs, 6-8 crusiers and 2-4 BBs at different times.
4) The standard German barges are estimated to required between 12 and 24 hours to transit the channel - plenty of time for a surface intervention even if the British air force couldn't.
5) 2 divisions simply wouldn't have been enough to do anything - barely seize a port much less take over enough territory to secure a beach head.
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