choosing between deliberate and shock attack in a really allied friendly malaysia

[quertice]

is shock attack more useful to increase victory probability(increased adjusted AV) or to increase enemy losses in case of victory?

situation:



johore baru, 26 february 1942

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 18605 troops, 246 guns, 41 vehicles, Assault Value = 728

Defending force 66683 troops, 797 guns, 825 vehicles, Assault Value = 2271

Japanese ground losses:
199 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 19 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled



Assaulting units:
55th Infantry Regiment
21st Infantry Regiment
114th Infantry Regiment
11th Infantry Regiment
15th Ind. Engineer Regiment
23rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
1st Tank Regiment
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
41st Infantry Regiment
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
5th Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment

Defending units:
6th Australian Division
Marinier Battalion
1st Manchester Battalion
Upper Burma BAF Battalion
2nd Malay Battalion
11th Indian Division
2nd Loyal Battalion
1st Hyderabad Battalion
1st Malay Battalion
27th Australian Brigade
6th KNIL Regiment
1st Regt Cavalerie
2nd KNIL Regiment
1st KNIL Regiment
10th Burma Rifles Battalion
RM Viper Force
1st Gloucestershire Battalion
Mobiele Eenheid Battalion
4th KNIL Regiment
Lijfwacht Cav Sqn
2/17 Dogra Battalion
2nd Gordons Battalion
Rangoon BAF Battalion
22nd Australian Brigade
3rd Cavalry Regiment
SSVF Brigade
1st Mysore Battalion
Mandalay BMP Battalion
9th Indian Division
112th RAF Base Force
1st HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
Singapore Base Force
24th NZ Pioneer Coy
2nd ISF Base Force
3rd Heavy AA Regiment
110th RAF Base Force
III Indian Corps
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
1st Indian Heavy AA Regiment
223 Group RAF
AHQ Far East
RAF 223 Group Wing
Malaya Army
111th RAF Base Force

there are 140 fighters at singapore, and other 140 at johore baru, 70 allied 2E and some b-17 are daily bombarding japaneses lcus(around 80 casualties per day), these ground attacks started 10 days ago, so enemy is a bit distrupted

I would like to take advantage of japanese delay in malaysia, so i'm interested to make japanese losses as more as possible, it could gain time to me
there are 415k supply at singapore and 40k at johore baru, but batavia is going to fall, therefore i need to economize supply in malaysia, and shock attack is more expensive

preparing ground offensive, tomorrow i'll order an off shore bombardament to BB royal sovereign task force(plus 2 CA and 4 CL, the singapore naval force), and i'll decrease bomber altitude from 10k to 5k feet(or is it too low?)

i'm thinking about all units on shock attack to achieve an overwhelming victory
the other plan is every armor unit on pursuit reserve and the rest on deliberate attack, for to win at johore baru and then destroy retearing units by armors(there is a main road, my vehicles would be very fast)

what is your opinion?

[Encircled]

How did you get all those Burmese units there?

How come the Japanese airforce has not closed the sea lanes?

Anyway (to answer your question!)

Do you even need to attack?

It looks like with the units you've got there, you've stopped him cold

[PaxMondo]

Shock attack will cost you more casualties and many of your squads in those units have really low replacement rates.  I would use deliberate attack to push hime out or bombardment a few turns first if your supplies are no issue to increase the EXP of your units and then deliberate attack to really hurt his forces on retreat.  You do have a lot of forces there, more than enough to hold, but most of them are likely still low morale and low exp.  So on defense they will be really brittle.

[crsutton]

The answer to both your questions is yes, but as Pax points out with low morale and exp troops a failed shock attack could create a bad situation for you with your forces taking massive casualties.

[LoBaron]

ORIGINAL: qwetry

is shock attack more useful to increase victory probability(increased adjusted AV) or to increase enemy losses in case of victory?

From all I know shock attack simply trades double adjusted AV for double defensive fire. Nothing else.

So what you basically do is buy the theoretical chance of achieving a more favorable adjusted AV by risking higher losses to your attacking troops.

I do not think theres anything else involved. Naturally if your attack succeeds it does so against a stronger enemy, and so potentially losses to the defenders
in case they retreat will be higher. But this is not correlated with the shock attack but dependent on the troop composition.

[Grfin Zeppelin]

Wow this screenshot can cause nightmares for Japanese players.....

Deliberate is the way to go imo. You really dont need to take risks.

[Icedawg]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

How did you get all those Burmese units there?

How come the Japanese airforce has not closed the sea lanes?

Anyway (to answer your question!)

Do you even need to attack?

It looks like with the units you've got there, you've stopped him cold

+1 How DID you get those Dutch units there? Using Catalinas as transports?

[quertice]

ORIGINAL: Encircled

How did you get all those Burmese units there?

How come the Japanese airforce has not closed the sea lanes?

Anyway (to answer your question!)

Do you even need to attack?

It looks like with the units you've got there, you've stopped him cold

my opponent is at his first japan game, so he has done errors, he hasn't blocked sea lanes to singapore
i have a great quantity advantage, i think supply cost is worth japanese losses, they will delay japanese offensive, even in burma(japanese troops are preparing at south of moulmain, but they are still few to begin offensive, like in malaysia)

ORIGINAL: Icedawg

+1 How DID you get those Dutch units there? Using Catalinas as transports?

naval transports paying PP, assigned long range cap from palemband, fast(around 14 knts) AK/xAK on full speed by southern naval route to singapore.
Also burma units were sent by sea, by passing between sumatra and giava

Singapore is under ABDA command, i'm trying a south-west pro europeans strategy, perth is going to be mine sidney and koepang mine guadalcanal. I moved those dutch units to singapore thinking american units would have taken their place at java, but japanese invasion arrived before... at least koepang is now an american fortress, japan can't attack singapore, burma and koepang at same time, while i can be enough quiet about coral sea, 500 AVs are at port moresby ,400 at noumea, 250 at suva.

[quertice]

i realize there aren't japanese AA units at johore baru, no one
what do you think if a order a strafing(100 fts) ground attack at johore baru to all fighters between singapore and johore baru?(280 planes)
i'm preparing a deliberate attack(thank you all for advices [&o] ) for every unit(also armored units, they won't stay on reserve like i thought), so i need to soften enemy as most as possible


these days oscars arent's sweeping, no one bomber has attacked singapore or johore baru, so fighters are relatively no busy(70% cap 30% rest), can they be useful on strafing or would i have high losses by flak?

[Shark7]

Your opponent could use some pointers. I don't know of a single experienced IJN player that wouldn't have cut the sea lanes long, long ago (game time wise).

I'd already have Singkawang up to at least level 4 AF with my Betties and Zero's there (so they don't divert supply from my LCUs) with IJAAF flying out of Kuching and maybe some of the light bombers up at Kauntan. Betties do nothing but Naval, while the IJAAF aircraft attack the airfields at Singapore.

[quertice]

ORIGINAL: Shark7

Your opponent could use some pointers. I don't know of a single experienced IJN player that wouldn't have cut the sea lanes long, long ago (game time wise).

I'd already have Singkawang up to at least level 4 AF with my Betties and Zero's there (so they don't divert supply from my LCUs) with IJAAF flying out of Kuching and maybe some of the light bombers up at Kauntan. Betties do nothing but Naval, while the IJAAF aircraft attack the airfields at Singapore.

he says that he couldn't used singkawang cause off shore bombardaments by royal navy, but he admits it is an his mistake, he delayed too much in malaysia

result of deliberate attack, i cant' complain [:D]

Ground combat at Johore Bahru (50,83)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 57274 troops, 733 guns, 703 vehicles, Assault Value = 2284

Defending force 22378 troops, 254 guns, 166 vehicles, Assault Value = 696

Allied adjusted assault: 1301

Japanese adjusted defense: 423

Allied assault odds: 3 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
6938 casualties reported
Squads: 193 destroyed, 132 disabled
Non Combat: 126 destroyed, 87 disabled
Engineers: 36 destroyed, 83 disabled
Guns lost 64 (19 destroyed, 45 disabled)
Vehicles lost 64 (26 destroyed, 38 disabled)
Units retreated 13


Allied ground losses:
2103 casualties reported
Squads: 41 destroyed, 403 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 74 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 30 disabled
Guns lost 45 (3 destroyed, 42 disabled)
Vehicles lost 32 (3 destroyed, 29 disabled)


Defeated Japanese Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
1st Mysore Battalion
Rangoon BAF Battalion
2nd Malay Battalion
Mobiele Eenheid Battalion
11th Indian Division
2nd Loyal Battalion
6th KNIL Regiment
10th Burma Rifles Battalion
4th KNIL Regiment
RM Viper Force
1st Manchester Battalion
2nd Gordons Battalion
3rd Cavalry Regiment
1st KNIL Regiment
2/17 Dogra Battalion
Mandalay BMP Battalion
Marinier Battalion
1st Regt Cavalerie
SSVF Brigade
6th Australian Division
27th Australian Brigade
1st Malay Battalion
2nd KNIL Regiment
Lijfwacht Cav Sqn
Upper Burma BAF Battalion
1st Hyderabad Battalion
22nd Australian Brigade
1st Gloucestershire Battalion
9th Indian Division
223 Group RAF
AHQ Far East
1st HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
112th RAF Base Force
110th RAF Base Force
III Indian Corps
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
Malaya Army
24th NZ Pioneer Coy
2nd ISF Base Force
3rd Heavy AA Regiment
RAF 223 Group Wing
1st Indian Heavy AA Regiment
Singapore Base Force
111th RAF Base Force

Defending units:
21st Infantry Regiment
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
55th Infantry Regiment
1st Tank Regiment
23rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
15th Ind. Engineer Regiment
114th Infantry Regiment
11th Infantry Regiment
41st Infantry Regiment
5th Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment

[Lokasenna]

This makes me cringe. I'm only in my second shot at an IJ campaign (vs. the AI) and I definitely took too long to get my hands on Singapore - it's mid-March in my game and I have the PI, Mindanao, Borneo, Palembang, and western Java but I've just learned that without Singapore, I can't really use Palembang or Batavia yet.

Or rather, with Singapore still in Allied hands I'm going to have major, major issues as it presents a threat as simply being a large airfield and port where a big air/surface force MIGHT show up in the future. If it happens in time to prevent encirclement of Singapore, then it's a permanent problem and a big loss, IMO.