Nikademus
Posts: 25219
Joined: 5/27/2000 From: Alien spacecraft Status: offline
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: Justus2 quote:
ORIGINAL: fodder Nice quote, thank you. As everyone here already knows, from the begining of organized armed conflict to the present day. We have had and do have wargames. Unless you want to kill off your own forces, the only way to pratice war is to game it. I'd have to say that the most famous war game of all time was the one that didn't take place at Rennes on June 6, 1944. The Japenese during WWII cheated at thier wargmaes. Sunk carriers would come back to life. There's an idea, can we mod that into our game. Sunk "Japanese" carriers coming back to life? So Yamamoto was one of the original save-game reloaders?? The interpretation of Japanese war-gaming sessions as a rigged 'game' played by power personality players was challenged in Zimm's recent book on PH. Personally i found this section to be one of the most interesting if not the most interesting aspects of the book, especially after reading Parshalls and Tully's layman-ish ballyhooing of Japanese war-gaming (including an unprofessional-like pause in the narrative where the authors suggest that the reader go fix themselves a drink before continuing) I had alot of issues with Zimm's book but i found his comments here of interest because this was his home territory so to speak....operational studies and planning, including war-'gaming' and it was his view that past authors misunderstand the true nature of war-gaming and focused on personalities in play, not the point of the sessions themselves. To summarize he basically said that what historians like Prange interpret as "Hubris" and wishful thinking in the face of unpleasant results was actually a common and necessary practice in operational planning war-games. The point of war-gaming is not to determine who "Wins" (such as in the session where two IJN carriers were sunk by a surprise USN attack on the flank), but to see how to best execute the operation and ferret out unanticipated factors. In other words, yes....you do in effect hit the "reset" button, go back to certain points and replay it out and see what result you get. Hence the much quoted scenario of the "Kaga resurrection" This makes sense to me. You don't get a bunch of guys together, make a file cabinets worth of plans and only play out ONE scenario. If that one scenario goes bad and enough of your forces are sunk, you all call it a day and go home. No. You reset the board, partially or completely and play it again to see what other results come by and how one might address them. Based on what Zimm wrote, if one agrees with him, Parshalls and Tully are guilty of the same thing.....a misunderstanding of what the point behind such planning/gaming is in favor of focusing on the bigger than life personalities involved in it. (hence....go mix yourself a martini) In the end it wasn't the operational gaming that was flawed, it was Yamamotto's assumption, even conviction that the worst case scenario events which the gaming revealed would not happen in real life because he dismissed the poss that the US would either be tipped off to the operation ahead of time or that it was desirous of a fight and thus had to be enticed to come out to be destroyed. Y can be forgiven somewhat for being in the dark about Nimitz reading his mail, but armed as we all are with Hindsight, the old saying is more true than ever.....assume the worst......don't assume the best. Y assumed the best and planned accordingly, yet hedged a little in the end by advising Nagumo to be wary yet saddling him with a rigid plan.
|