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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

 
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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/26/2012 1:14:55 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I thought they did not fly? The map shows a TF about 5 hexes south of Singers, so I guess that is the one in question?
If it did not have a high enough DL the TBs might not fly - an "iffy" FOW contact isn't worth risking op losses.
If it had a good DL and they didn't fly, it could have been weather or the aircraft was overloaded with torp and DT so it stayed put.
If they flew and no attack appears in the combat report, they turned back.
You might get a clue to what happened by looking at their fatigue level. A 0 fatique level, or a decrease of previous fatigue means they stayed at the bar.
An increase of 4-6 means a normal, no DT mission with no contact. An increase of 7-9 likely means a DT ranged mission with no contact.
I got a feel for this by watching fatigue levels on my air groups every turn - standing them down when they get over ten unless something really juicy is nearby.

PS - weather in the landing hex also affects fatigue a bit, 2-3 points if it is bad. The "pucker factor effect".


The maps are from an interim save I made before I sent the turn back last time. I don't know what course Mike sent them home on. In the movie I thought there was a hit by Singers patrol planes on a rough course for Cam Rahn, but I don't know the range. There's a good chance they were seen by multiple units' patrols.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/26/2012 1:46:00 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/26/2012 1:45:41 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
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To round out this issue, which I've asked michaelm to look at in the Tech forum, but he may not, I went through Tracker for every TB in the game, both sides. From what I can tell ONLY the early-war Beest has this DT/torp problem. The Beest IV moves the DT to an XT hardpoint and away from the Center where the torp lives. All the other Allied TBs with drop tanks are XT for the tank while the torp is Internal. The Japanese don't appear to have DTs as an option on any TB.

As such one could argue "meh" on the Beest and say newbies and oldies should "just know" to avoid dual use. OTOH, a fix to the interface would only involve one error check for one model, redding-out the torpedo when the DT is selected on the Beest.

The war is long and many things happen. But this really got under my skin yesterday. This interface glitch may have cost me a strike at two BBs low on ammo and with only one escort coming by Singers where the Beests were supremely rested and ready.

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The Moose

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Post #: 212
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/26/2012 5:16:52 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online
December 18, 1941


Arrrgh!!!!

A low-activity day punctuated by lack of attacks more than the other way.

1) With next turn in hand I can confirm that Singers patrols got a hard fix on the BB TF withdrawing from Palembang on a NE course. This shot shows the end state, with the Beest range rings superimposed. Based on these, and without yesterday's discussion, I would have hoped they would have attacked with the drop tanks provided. I know now they did not, and may not have ever. What I don't know is if Mike waypointed them to this location, avoiding coming inside the black ring. It may not have mattered if the DT command in the code takes precedence over the torpedo order in the code. I'll never know.






2) The ASW Follies at Pearl evened out as RO-66 either was ordered or reacted into Pearl Harbor. A 3-hits attack was followed several cycles later by a mine explosion sound effect. This illustrates why it is good to watch replays twice since the first time it was near bedtime, the house was already in bed, and I had the sound off. This time the mine may have been RO-66 because immediatley afterward another attack found her (higher d/l due to oil leaking?) and scored a penetrating hit as well as two hits which read as Severe Engine Damage, plus others of a non-penetrating nature. FOWed ships sunk shows her gone. It is possible, or if not she is very hurt and may sink en route.

3) Sweeps in China used I think as probes to see if I have pulled all my air back in the region (I have, 95%.)

4) 11th Division in Malaysia, now in Strat mode and on the train platform, continues to be abused by heavy Netty strikes. It should roll south this turn, I hope.

5) Route bombing continues near Temuloh, slowing my retreat. I counter again with Blenheims on his troops, but he has CAPed them and I suffer stiff losses. About 7 planes. Not worth it.

6) Several unoccupied Chinese cities have been taken without comment as he regularizes the front. I am taking about 6-8 VP point losses per turn due to missing garisons, so I don't mind. It also forces him to garrison.

7) Manila now has no planes. One ragged P-40E unit sent to Cebu and the other to Clark. He sweeps Manila again, just to see I think. Manila's only function now is to pump out as much LI supply as possible. A couple of ships are still in the yards trying to patch enough holes to run for it (unsuccessfully I think), and the Cavite Base force remains doing their job, but everyting else is PI infantry. All subs have rebased elsewhere. My last two DDs can't load torps anymore. To date the PTs have been completely ineffectual, although I send them out nightly.

8) Rangoon continues to be methodically assaulted. Sweeps followed by something I've never seen vs. the AI: Betty and Sally attacks at 100 ft. Bettys strafing is a new one. One bomb hit, one kill and 2 damaged on the bombers. AVG is up at Mandalay again. I'm going to get at least some P-40Es installed before I send them to the meat grinder again. Those pilots are too good for the planes they've had foisted on them.

9) No opposed land attacks anywhere on the map. Mike e-mailed that he wore out a mouse on the turn I just recieved, so this may indicate that a new wave of landings is coming. From slender reeds is OPSEC breached . . .

10) Clark and Pearl forts go to 3.

Addendum: I see that my opponent has been reading of Oz invasions in NY59Giants' AAR. I have three division equivalents at Perth or on the rails headed there now. My whole logistics set-up for the left side of the map depends on Perth.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/26/2012 5:50:07 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/26/2012 9:14:26 PM   
zuluhour


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quote:

Mike e-mailed that he wore out a mouse on the turn

your time will come, in '44 I melted several keys with a cig and twice spilled Hendricks (very sticky with tonic) on the mouse pad.
I believe NYGiants is in a reluctant admiral scenario, putting him in more of a "pickle". I'm glad you decided to write the AAR Moose, I have picked up a few things and am enjoying the read.




Attachment (1)

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Post #: 214
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/26/2012 9:36:32 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour


quote:

Mike e-mailed that he wore out a mouse on the turn

your time will come, in '44 I melted several keys with a cig and twice spilled Hendricks (very sticky with tonic) on the mouse pad.
I believe NYGiants is in a reluctant admiral scenario, putting him in more of a "pickle". I'm glad you decided to write the AAR Moose, I have picked up a few things and am enjoying the read.


Ah, I didn't know it was RA. I only read the last two pages. He IS in a pickle. Nice to see somebody get to play with the Emergency Rees.

I've never had anything like this kind of sub war so early versus the AI.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/26/2012 10:53:14 PM   
Encircled


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Hope you've got your Aussie troops fortifying every possible landing site on the west coast.

Sounds like he is coming

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Post #: 216
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/29/2012 12:01:19 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online
December 19, 1941

Stringbags Not To The Rescue

A low-key day overall.

1) Sub war at Pearl swings back to advantage Bad Guys. He puts a torp into USS Shaw, which should make it in from one hex out, and sinks PC Reliance. I think I'm going to pull my ASW TFs in to Pearl and try a new model. Maybe only 4-ship TFs to overcome the tiny ammo loads pre-upgrade, and flood one hex with everybody at once, see if I can win the war of odds. I also may stick to DDs with this effort. Their maneuverability ratings and increased DC if they are hit make them perhaps a better cost-benefit mix for now.

2) Argonaut drops three whole mines at Johnson, but the mine symbol works for 1 or 500. He'll have to attend to it. Argonaut gets popped for a control room fire and minor damge, but is headed back to Pearl. Nautilus also calls at Johnson and gets DCed for no damage. He has a mix of DDs and PBs there at least, but my recon says he's done offloading. I sorta believe it.

3) I sit up and go "Whaaaat!?" when a float plane detects a high-speed, 6-ship IJN TF down SW of San Diego, doing 18 knots on a SW course. Could it be the KB, swung around to snipe the Canal Zone wormhole exit? Is he looking for my carriers, now transiting that area and headed for San D.? I go to the map, plot the hex, and it's my carrier Tf itself, running at Full for home. That float plane a-vi-a-tor is getting no soup tonight.

4) He sweeps Singers twice with large Zero and Oscar groups, slashing at my helpless Buffaloes, downing seven. I have no choice but to take it, as the inevitable airfield or port raid will come soon and try to stop my fort building. For now it continues, with two more engineer units arriving by train from up-country. 11th Indian Division also tucks into Singers, safe after a long ride. They begin to unpack and adopt the title of largest AV unit in town.

5) Sweeps on Manila find open skies. Sweeps on Rangoon ditto. I'm happy he's sweeping where I have no fighters, but I don't expect the vacation to last. The Oscar sweeps on Kuantan continue for the Nth day. For training I asume.

6) Strikes on Kuala Lumpur do medium damage and supply destruction. I have been keeping this hex open only for rail purposes, but with the 11th now passed it has no further purpose. I will pull this base force south. I still have the non-infantry pieces of 9th Indian Div. at Malacca waiting to reform, but I can't wait any longer. The infantry is being severely harried in central Malaysia (40+ bombers this turn) and may not make Singers. I will send the Malaccan pieces south and hope they can reform at Singers before the doors close.

7) A two CA TF is detected SE of Singers, at 53,82, well within TB range (even WITHOUT drop tanks.) Why is it there? I have no idea. In e-mails Mike has indicated he does not fear the TBs in the early game before training kicks in. He is right, on this turn at least. Swordfish launch in three uncoordinated attacks, and hit nothing. A small follow-on Catalina attack gets one dud and no hits. The Beests take the day off.

8) B-17s return to Miri in their by now standard two package formation, and record one Oil hit. Oscars damage, but do not destroy. After looking at the device tables in Tracker, specifically Japanese AA ranges, I reduce the B-17s to 7000 feet. No harm, but no better results either.

9) Ground combat is light. Japanese mixed brigade attacks Chinese corps at 195:1 odds, and destroys 14 squads and 2 guns near Hwainan. In the previous mountain hex near Chengting he has brought in extra forces, now 4 LCUs including light AFVs, versus a corps and HQ. Japan gets 1:2 odds but gets more Chinese casualties, but the Chinese do not retreat. This hex straddles a rail line, and I am content to let him take it rather than leave. My Chinese forces are steadily working west now. I will post a screen shot soon. The leading units are one hex from Lashio.

10) Singers and Soerbaja forts go to 3.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/29/2012 12:08:36 AM >


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Post #: 217
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 12:25:05 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online
December 20, 1941

'Fish Got Game

What do you call four heavy cruisers reconning Palembang?

Targets.

1) The TBs redeem themselves. A reconaissance in force, four prime, juicy CAs and two DDs, come to call at Palembang. The only reason I can think of is to recon my preparation for his company. Their search planes ARE seen over the refinery, taking photos. At first they find a lone xAKL desperately trying to get a 30% fragment of a spare RAF air HQ across to Palembang so I can spread the TB goodness.

Day Time Surface Combat, near Muntok at 49,89, Range 25,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
CA Mogami
CA Mikuma
CA Suzuya
CA Kumano
DD Maikaze
DD Nowaki

Allied Ships

xAKL Beatrice, Shell hits 3, and is sunk

Allied ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

But every plane at Singers is loaded and on the ramp, including four Cats, and some of them fly. In two flights separated by two Cat attacks, Swordfish, strongly escorted by half my living Buffaloes to give them courage, hit the TF that should not have been where it was found.





Morning Air attack on TF, near Muntok at 49,89

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 9 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
Buffalo I x 9
Swordfish I x 6

Allied aircraft losses
Swordfish I: 3 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Mikuma, Torpedo hits 1
CA Suzuya

This result is accompanied by the "Listing, counter-flooding" message on screen.

Then:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Muntok at 49,89

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Allied aircraft
Buffalo I x 9
Swordfish I x 3

Allied aircraft losses
Swordfish I: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Mikuma, Torpedo hits 1

This attack includes the "Explosion below water line" message.

I think Mikuma is afloat for sure, but probably with engine damage, so there should be one more chance tomorrow to get the Beests in the air.

This constitutes pretty much all the good news for the Allies today. Now, for the rest of the story . . .

2) My Pearl ASW units head for the barn, this turn and next. There are duels but no results except dead reef fish. He puts a big I-boat directly into Hilo harbor where an amphib TF has just come and gone with 8th Marines to stiffen the southern flank of the Islands. How I wish I had more mines.

3) Landings begin at Christmas Island with a bombardment and a Naval Guard unit last seen at Johnson I. This tells me he is using economy of force to take these satellites not quickly, but efficiently. Christmas has only the pre-war civilian contractor CB unit, plus the just arrived 'E' unit of the port services force. I'll lose both. Forts drop to 0 from 2 in the shock attack, but Christmas holds for one day. It will fall tomorrow.

A more important question is why. Is this only a standard move to take the flank of Pearl to harass west-bound convoys for Oz? If so my plan is to not come through here. If it's more than that I'll see more landings and insertion of air power here. So far he has not touched Tarawa, Makin, Canton, or Baker.

4) Or Wake. I sneak a lone supply ship in here next turn to land about 1000 supply. Forts are at 2 plus 92%, and with a little supply the CD unit can cut up landing ships in a very historical manner. I considered pulling the fighters and the Marines, but decided to go historic, whenever he gets around to it. I could use both at Midway, but Wake might pay more than it costs if he waits for the forts to ripen. And with no idea where the KB went, and a dozen subs or more east of Kwajalein, there's no assurance they'd get to Midway anyway.

5) Landings also begin at Kuching, a DD and AMC. I'll be interested to see if he joins up more landing ships once he knows the CD posture. Looking at the landing report it's possible there are more ships than I can see, depending on whcih way the FOW wind blows. Elements of the 4th Infantry Bn., 2nd Recon Rgt, and 2nd Eng Rg. are lost in the surf. More would make sense to me if he plans to go overland to attack Sambas and Singkawang, which is mined. The defenders at Kuching bombard, but the Japanese do not attack yet.

6) An intense day in the air as I sense a shift from a focus on sweeps to one of infrastructure destruction and troop disablement: in China, in the PI, at Rangoon, and in Malaysia.

7) In China, only Chengchow stands preventing a free, open railroad link between Peiping and Wuchang. Chengchow is one of my bastion cities, with three HQs, four corps equivalents, and two engineer units fortifying. I do not plan to hold it long, but doing so has focused him on it and the railroad while other units stream through the cracks on a NW heading. Combined with the battles in the mountains to the north this week he is strongly focused on freeing the rails, and I will try to stop that as long as I can. He does probing Lily bombing in Chengchow for not much damage, but I have no AA there at all.

His other China air objective is the forces around Wuchow, which is itself now vacant. The former residents are in cross-country Move mode when bombing will let them, presently in grassland but about to transition to forest. China is turing into an interesting exercise in triage and head fakes. I'm trying to get him to pay attention in certain places and swing at fat pitches while I sneak out of the park. I hope to only lose about 30% of my Chinese force in the exit, but it may end up half or a bit more depending on how he uses armor and how long I wait to hold certain doors open. It's not every man for himself by any means, but it may be in three weeks or so.

8) Realizing late (face slap) that I need a Level 7 AF to upgrade anything, I move the AVG to Calcutta, turn off port and forts, and go all out to try to get me some airfielfd. I have enough P-40Es to upgrade two sub-units after disbanding a training rig on the EC, but I don't have a Level 7 AF in Asia. By the time Calcutta is ready Rangoon may be decided. I'm toying with sending my first chunk of Chinese to Rangoon, but I may not, and hold that yellow icon card in reserve. I have not solidified plans for the Chinese masses once they're out, except some will go to India for garrison so I can have my tanks, please.

9) Singers gets 52 Netties at 6000 ft. chewing on troops. After today's torpedo follies I expect him to try to shut down the AF tomorrow and forever. My Buffaloes do little, but every day he bangs on troops I dig. I have also moved all my existing Malaysian AA into Singers, so 6000 ft. may not work.

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 6 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 2 destroyed, 5 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied ground losses:
18 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

10) Manila recieves 92 Bettys and 39 Zeros and they find no CAP. 10,000 ft. and

Allied ground losses:
4 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Airbase hits 4
Airbase supply hits 4
Runway hits 20

Two Bettys are damaged.

Later, a 2 ship Zero sweep at 10,000 "slams" into Manila's empty skies. A little funny. I'll take it where I can find it.

11) Other air strikes too numerous to mention on Manila, Singers, and Rangoon. The normal erosion of December 1941 continues.

12) Georgetown, defended only by the Fort, falls to a recon unit.

13) Batavia's oilmen rest from their Miri labors. The planes are fine, but morale was in the 40s in two, and 60s in the other unit.

My carriers should make San Diego tomorrow or the next day at latest. I have sent more force to Diego Garcia from CT, and 1st Australian Corps to command Perth's defenses. Little by little the Dutch are calling their men into larger, more defensible positions, riding patrol planes not designed for the job but doing the best they can. Two smaller reinforcing LCUs have unloaded at Oosthaven and strat packed for Palembang. I will not be able to hold there if he wants it, (I didn't plan well at all between Singers and P-ville) and it looks like he does. But I hope to drag it out and damage it as much as possible. In NG, the garrisons at Lae et al have each walked about 35 miles toward PM, which is itself almost done pulling everything movable out of Rabaul. Kavieng is already a ghostown. I have managed to get about 10,000 precious Aussie supply into PM, where infrastructure building eats it up pretty fast. I may be handing him a nice port and airfield, so it's a risk, but when I do take it back I want it ready to go then.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/30/2012 1:30:34 AM >


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Post #: 218
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 6:34:05 PM   
zuluhour


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Have you reinforced PM with any sizeable LCU? I am going to make a stand there again, line in the sand as it were, and will watch developements here as well. I have sent a tired and and understrength brigade so far but hope to achieve 300-375AV behind level 4 forts before he can muster forces to challenge me.
PS. (i'm in bigbabesA) The ABDA group is low 30's training and high 20s moral. Think pilots to reserve for them. I don't know if they hit reserves earlier their stage time to squadrons might be faster?

< Message edited by zuluhour -- 10/30/2012 8:29:30 PM >

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 219
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 8:28:27 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

Have you reinforced PM with any sizeable LCU? I am going to make a stand there again, line in the sand as it were, and will watch developements here as well. I have sent a tired and and understrength brigade so far but hope to achieve 300-375AV behind level 4 forts before he can muster forces to challenge me.


I have had only two strategic discusisons with Rocky since the game was concieved, and one concerned PM. In AI games I have easily held it, easily gotten 100,000+ supplies to it, and built a major airbase by mid-1942.

He advised not doing that, and I now see why. There is no spare air for it when I'm being swept everywhere by a human player. I do not have PPs free to buy out Aussie land units. Full divisions I would send there versus the AI I have committed to keeping Perth open. As Rocky says, there are no forces pre-summer 1942 available to project power from PM (at best) and before summer if the Japanese want it they can take it. I'm pulling in satellite LCUs as best I can by air, and I've gotten about 25,000 total supply in so far, but I can't afford to buy out the remaining pieces of the infantry unit which starts there. And if I could it would be a speed bump.

It rubs me to give up PM and probably Darwin, but if I have to I will. Both can be re-taken when I have the units. There are better places to make a stand, especially if oil-denial is a core strategy. And PPs spent to take bastion city Chinese generals from 32 Land to 62 Land to me pay more dividends. I need time in China.

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Post #: 220
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 8:52:55 PM   
zuluhour


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From: Maryland
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Very true in China, I whole heartly agree. I am going to do everything I can to hold at Port Morseby, risky business, no doubt. It may be futile depending on IJ intentions. I laid 3 mine fields only to have Bettys take out all three ACMs two days later. There really is no alternative to "Sir Robin" to a great extent early. I am impressed at your tactics in the DEI where I sneak out whatever I can and hold impossible ground with little eye to a long defense. The more damage you inflict and time you can buy will certainly serve you well in either Burma or China during the dark days. I also agree to your commitment to Perth. It is my supply and fuel relay point (and oil while the DEI is navagable). Not playing a "B" or RA senario I believe I have an absolute minimum of 75 days before IJ can effect a landing within 400mi of Perth. ( can't remember now which scenario you are in and will check asap after this ramble.) This should allow enough time for moral recovery and replacements for a reinforced division at Perth and a brigade or two from Africa. (ETA from Aden-mid Feb.) Well, to finish the ramble, Geraldton, have a surprise ready for him, if he comes for west Australia he'll want it for LBA and you will have little to oppose it. Best of Luck-fun read!

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 221
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 9:17:31 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour
Not playing a "B" or RA senario I believe I have an absolute minimum of 75 days before IJ can effect a landing within 400mi of Perth.


I believe he's playing Scenario 2.

I would knock about 30 days off of that timeline for a landing within 400 mi. of Perth.

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Post #: 222
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 9:20:27 PM   
Chickenboy


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Nice poke in the eye @ Muntok, moose. Make 'em pay for operating without air cover.

He's behind for getting an AirHQ and support to Singkawang. Until he does, his prosecution of Sumatra and Java will be considerably delayed. Good time to dump a bunch of LCUs onto Palembang, bull.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 9:21:48 PM   
zuluhour


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I meant days from Dec 7th, still knock off thirty days??

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Post #: 224
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 9:29:44 PM   
Chickenboy


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Mechanically, it's quite possible for an IJ opponent to get something to Geraldton or surrounds before the end of January 1942.

Whether or not Bull's opponent is committed enough to such a reach is the real question. I've seen nothing to suggest that 1EyedJacks has even adopted a historical interest in the DEI / Malaya / PI, let alone a hastened timetable.

So-could he? Yes. Will he? Dunno. Any signs that he will? No.

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Post #: 225
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 10:37:36 PM   
Canoerebel


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An Allied player would be absolutely nuts to try to hold PM against a decent IJ player. To do so would be the equivalent of the Confederate Army deciding to hold Alexandria, Virginia, from the outset of the Civil War and turn it into a major fortification.

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Post #: 226
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 10:48:08 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Nice poke in the eye @ Muntok, moose. Make 'em pay for operating without air cover.

He's behind for getting an AirHQ and support to Singkawang. Until he does, his prosecution of Sumatra and Java will be considerably delayed. Good time to dump a bunch of LCUs onto Palembang, bull.


Thanks. The turn I just sent back at least a couple of CAs are still just inside the black Beest ring at about the same hex as the attack. I have everything that can fly (except the Cats this time) at Singers hanging a torpedo. I don't know why he stayed unless there's a big amphib gaggle over the horizon I haven't seen. Ive been getting lots of activity intel hits at Cam Rahn and Formosa, but you would expect that.

As we move through the second week now I still don't know what his focus is except taking a perimeter around Hawai and getting the railroads sorted in China. It seems to me that he is behind schedule, and being very slow with landings. I got a sighting intel hit last turn near Ternate and sent a sub, but so far there's no move on Tarakan or Balikpapan, Mindanao is sitting still after he took Davao, no pressure at all on Sumatra, very limited push south in Malaysia, etc. Singkawang is an immediate AI target in pretty much every game, and it's easy to see why. It's why I invested some scarce mines there. But so far no move.

I'm dumping what I can in Palembang. 2nd Gordon's Bn is there, and an Indian brigade (? have to look) is strat loading at Oost. It started in Madras. My EC air groups--B-bombers, P-39s, P-40s, some DBs--are still a month or so out of CT, and there are a couple of US ground units behind them. I've held off on sending more until I understand better what he's doing at Hawaii. Palembang and Singers are both stockpiling what they make and building only forts.

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The Moose

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 227
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 10:54:04 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

Mechanically, it's quite possible for an IJ opponent to get something to Geraldton or surrounds before the end of January 1942.

Whether or not Bull's opponent is committed enough to such a reach is the real question. I've seen nothing to suggest that 1EyedJacks has even adopted a historical interest in the DEI / Malaya / PI, let alone a hastened timetable.

So-could he? Yes. Will he? Dunno. Any signs that he will? No.


I agree. He doesn't, so far as I know, have Force Z located, and going that deep behind Java with absolutely nothing taken on Java or Sumatra is a risk to me. The road from Geraldton to Perth is slower than the railroad to Perth from anywhere east, and running LBA from Geraldton would take some building. It starts either as a 1 or 2 AF. Like many places, with WWII tech it's hard to do envolopment attacks such as that would be. You need to step toward your objectives for the most part, leaving a log trail behind you. Ranges and sensors aren't good enough to do what we can do now.

The short answer to me is an attack on Geraldton just annoys the Allies. It doesn't really "get anything done."

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The Moose

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 228
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 10:55:58 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

An Allied player would be absolutely nuts to try to hold PM against a decent IJ player. To do so would be the equivalent of the Confederate Army deciding to hold Alexandria, Virginia, from the outset of the Civil War and turn it into a major fortification.


Rocky likes a good steak, not nuts, but that's about what he said.

I thought about what Mike could bring in Scen 2, with no HRs, and decided I liked steak too.

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The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 229
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/30/2012 11:50:51 PM   
zuluhour


Posts: 3224
Joined: 1/20/2011
From: Maryland
Status: offline
quote:

An Allied player would be absolutely nuts to try to hold PM against a decent IJ player


An exceptionally bold statement. To bold to me.
1) depends on IJ commitment to the task, if at all.
2) With Allied commitment to the task, it must be done before the end of spring or it will be the "Verdun" of the Pacific.
3) It may be the only time in '42 the Allies can bring significant LBA and 360-450 carrier aircraft to one dance. (I seek CV trades early where feasable)


All IMHO, and with respect.

My question in return: If Port Morseby was a primary target for IJ, where would the application of force end up in the time table? ie. How long could they postpone the Op to be assured of success? I was surprised by Chickenboys response to a time table for western Australia. I confess I opened up the stock game as IJ and was kind of shocked. Perhaps, surrounded by TWITs, and of the romantic mind, I believe in the under dog and the improbabilities to much. I like to think the classical mind is open for the picking.

sorry for the hi jack moose.

I removed comment #4. For me it is a political paradox. (ref: civil war) not a can of worms to be opened here. I assert that IJ motives, once ascertained, may allow any number of strategies of which many are time sensitive.

< Message edited by zuluhour -- 10/31/2012 12:06:45 AM >

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 230
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 12:48:41 AM   
Encircled


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From: Northern England
Status: offline
I don't think its possible to hold PM against a reasonable Japanese player

You just don't have the PP's to hold that and everything else you've got to do.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 231
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 3:58:50 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: zuluhour

quote:

An Allied player would be absolutely nuts to try to hold PM against a decent IJ player


An exceptionally bold statement. To bold to me.
1) depends on IJ commitment to the task, if at all.
2) With Allied commitment to the task, it must be done before the end of spring or it will be the "Verdun" of the Pacific.
3) It may be the only time in '42 the Allies can bring significant LBA and 360-450 carrier aircraft to one dance. (I seek CV trades early where feasable)


All IMHO, and with respect.

My question in return: If Port Morseby was a primary target for IJ, where would the application of force end up in the time table? ie. How long could they postpone the Op to be assured of success? I was surprised by Chickenboys response to a time table for western Australia. I confess I opened up the stock game as IJ and was kind of shocked. Perhaps, surrounded by TWITs, and of the romantic mind, I believe in the under dog and the improbabilities to much. I like to think the classical mind is open for the picking.

sorry for the hi jack moose.

I removed comment #4. For me it is a political paradox. (ref: civil war) not a can of worms to be opened here. I assert that IJ motives, once ascertained, may allow any number of strategies of which many are time sensitive.


You make good points, but it seems to me that your argument rests on committing the USN CVs to the region to have any real hope of a meeting engagement and holding PM Coral Sea-style. That might work, but then it might not. I personally don't like to put my carriers near there that early as I don't think PM is worth even one of them. In RL the off-map logistic railroad wasn't available, so holding PM was really necessary to keep Oz supplied. In my past AI games holding it mostly lets the Allies stop Lae and the nearby bases from building too fast or at all until amphib landings can be done at Buna and NG rolled up by land. PM plays no real role in logistics in my games.

PM is a tasty VP treat for Japan though, and holding it does cut off Darwin and north Oz from Brisbane and Sydney supply. As part of a larger regional campaign I could see Japan investing quite a bit to take it, and its port can be made large enough to rapid-load Japanese LCUs for use in Oz afterward.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/31/2012 4:00:14 AM >


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The Moose

(in reply to zuluhour)
Post #: 232
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 4:01:07 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online
Just ran the movie for December 21. The best day yet for the Allies. Details to follow.

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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 233
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 5:21:34 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 2888
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: online
You teaser you! You better post in the morning - I have my popcorn ready for breakfast and a movie ...

_____________________________

I have not yet begun to fight! OTOH I have not yet begun to flee. Hmmmmm - choices, choices -always with the choices.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 234
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 6:16:50 AM   
Commander Cody


Posts: 881
Joined: 7/4/2003
From: Seoul, Korea
Status: offline
Moose: Just wanted to let you know I'm following this and wanted to express my appreciation for a fine AAR which teaches a lot. Also, what kind of sadistic AAR writer leaves a "details to follow" message like that?

Cheers,
CC

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Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 235
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 11:12:56 AM   
Encircled


Posts: 1044
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline
When you are off work for half term with the kids, and the builders are banging around upstairs, and its basically all chaos, the very last thing you need to read is "details to follow"!

Your audience awaits!

(in reply to Commander Cody)
Post #: 236
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 12:53:19 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Moose: Just wanted to let you know I'm following this and wanted to express my appreciation for a fine AAR which teaches a lot. Also, what kind of sadistic AAR writer leaves a "details to follow" message like that?

Cheers,
CC


What can I say? I used to be in marketing!

I have a doctor's appt this morning, but I'll post when I get home. To tease some more, I'm a sub guy, and the subs got busy, at least by 1941 standards. And it was a very, very . . . very . . . bad day to be a crewman on an IJN CA.

Mike's e-mail with the file said "You might find some small bit of enjoyment in watching it...."

I did indeed.


_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Commander Cody)
Post #: 237
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 12:56:25 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8790
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

Moose: Just wanted to let you know I'm following this and wanted to express my appreciation for a fine AAR which teaches a lot. Also, what kind of sadistic AAR writer leaves a "details to follow" message like that?

Cheers,
CC


I am humbled because I feel like I'm groping around in the dark. Watching horrible storm news yesterday I was micro-tweaking the turn and found that four hours had passed. And I still wasn't sure what the heck I should do in China.

When this is over, however it ends up, I hope I will have either come up with a new way to "do China" or a new way to never "do China" again.

(For Americans, you might see the slang inherent in that phrase . . .")


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The Moose

(in reply to Commander Cody)
Post #: 238
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 2:10:27 PM   
Canoerebel


Posts: 9796
Joined: 12/14/2002
From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
Status: offline
Permit me to clarify my comments about PM, since, on reading back through this page, it might seem that my "nuts" comment was aimed at Zulu. It wasn't - I wasn't aware of who had made the references to PM when I made my post, as I had only read the last few posts before I made mine. Zulu is "good people" and I hope he didn't take offense. (That's a legit concern, because I did something similar once before and really torched a relationship with a good member of the forums.)

PM is far to advanced for the Allies to risk against an experienced player. Japan can take it at its will through mid 1942 (or later). That means it is a potential prison camp for any major garrison the Allies commit there. Japan can isolate it and take it without hardly breaking a sweat, so it's not like it serves as a diversion "sucking in Japanese attention" that might be better used elsewhere. IE, it costs the Allies far more than it does Japan. If you need a second on this motion, I refer you to Q-Ball. As an IJ player, he would simply abuse any Allied strategy that included a "forward PM" defense.

In Scenario 2, Noumea might be the most analagous base to the Real War PM. Even then, I am reluctant to garrison Noumea until I'm sure Japan isn't coming for it. But think of that - Noumea is at least a 1,000 miles southeast of PM.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 239
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/31/2012 3:54:17 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 18476
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I was micro-tweaking the turn and found that four hours had passed.


A-ha! I thought you said that you didn't do 'fiddly'?

I find that I have to consciously distance myself from a turn and decide 'good enough'. When I get to a-fiddlin' with my units (and production-yeesh), time flies.

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(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 240
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