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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

 
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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 2:11:39 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

... When/if Chungking falls the Chinese won't rebuild, however...



Who dem sez dat. Aint git zombies if no Chungking but you git 350 fried rice a month to feed dem. Dem no need starve and turn to zombies.

Alfred


My understanding has always been that if Chungking falls, Chinese LCUs world-wide do not take replacements from the pools. They fight with what they have alone. Is this incorrect? If it is I have been making decisions on timing and other things in a grossly hurtful manner.

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The Moose

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Post #: 1921
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 2:13:10 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: desicat

I just love well thought out strategic discussions.


I do too. I will leave reading and digesting this until the morrow when I can see straight. I did send back a turn already where I made a decision, but it is not irretrievable.

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The Moose

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Post #: 1922
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 2:31:44 AM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

... When/if Chungking falls the Chinese won't rebuild, however...



Who dem sez dat. Aint git zombies if no Chungking but you git 350 fried rice a month to feed dem. Dem no need starve and turn to zombies.

Alfred


My understanding has always been that if Chungking falls, Chinese LCUs world-wide do not take replacements from the pools. They fight with what they have alone. Is this incorrect? If it is I have been making decisions on timing and other things in a grossly hurtful manner.


Ahem ... can't fully speak from personal experience, not having lost Chungking ...

Section 16.4.2 of the manual only refers to Chinese units that are totally destroyed. One needs to remember two facts about that rule.

(a) it was instituted when a player could not resurrect any destroyed LCU. That feature was only introduced into the game in the last 2-3 years.

(b) it also applied when the monthly Chinese infantry replacement rate was only 200. Hence why the resurrected units came back without dipping into the pools for that initial 1/3 TOE. In one of the early official patches that monthly rate was upped to 350.

In both instances, as made clear by the manual, the resurrection rule existed to give effect to the practically limitless manpower available to Chian Kai-chek.

Accessing the replacement pools is not dependent on controlling the national home base. There are other malus which apply if you don't, but not accessing the pools is not one of them.

On a slightly off topic, have you considered putting some of your units into reserve mode to protect them from the constant enemy attacks. Especially if you set the unit to accept replacements.

Alfred

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1923
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 2:05:26 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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I got the movie back for the turn made in the interim, before Alfred's post. I also have the next turn after that which I have not entered yet, but can screenshot from. I'm going to AAR the movie, then post a bunch of screen shots to provide data, then discuss these very helpful posts.

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The Moose

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Post #: 1924
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 2:40:29 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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August 8, 1942

Interim Experiments; Wry Emoticon

A turn sent back before the discussion above, led by Alfred's usual complete and incisive analysis. The focus was on Rangoon/Pegu as I struggle to find a solution to this chess match. In the turn I had: 1) ordered five prime Chinese infantry LCUs to move from Pegu to Rangoon. I changed their prep to the capital as well, 2) ordered all available 4Es in the region to conduct night Manpower attacks on Rangoon to try to burn down some LI (limited in number that the 4Es are), and 3) The Rangoon stack to bombard the base to probe LCUs names as well as cause disruption and destroy any supply possible.

I believe it was the last move which caused Mike, a former artilleryman, to insert the grinning emoticon in the email.

1) Night strikes on Rangoon LI are mixed.

NIGHT AIR OPERATIONS PHASE
AIR NIGHT STRIKES
3 x No.11 Sqn RAF Blenheim IV stray due to night
3 x No.215 Sqn RAF Wellington Ic stray due to night
3 x 41st BG/46th BS B-17E Fortress stray due to night


This was about half of the force assigned. The rest did some damage.

Night Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 21 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
Blenheim IV x 3

Allied aircraft losses
Blenheim IV: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 5
Fires 1450


Night Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 8,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Allied aircraft
Wellington Ic x 3

Allied aircraft losses
Wellington Ic: 1 damaged
Wellington Ic: 1 destroyed by flak

Manpower hits 8
Fires 5800


Night Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 27 NM, estimated altitude 5,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 3

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 2 damaged

2) While the Chinese moved on Rangoon the bombardment went very badly. The LCU read was accomplished, but the Allied losses were terrible.

Ground combat at Rangoon (54,53)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 84616 troops, 932 guns, 939 vehicles, Assault Value = 3204

Defending force 96403 troops, 1208 guns, 1884 vehicles, Assault Value = 2877

Allied ground losses:
404 casualties reported
Squads: 55 destroyed, 56 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 20 disabled
Engineers: 8 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 31 (20 destroyed, 11 disabled)
Vehicles lost 29 (22 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Assaulting units:
150th RAC Regiment
45th Recce Regiment
54th Chinese Corps
14th British Brigade
20th Indian Division
75th Indian Brigade
23rd Indian Division
23rd British Brigade
26th Indian Division
7th Australian Division
24th Chinese Corps
3rd Carabiniers Regiment
16th British Brigade
16th Light Cavalry Regiment
7th Indian Division
60th Chinese Corps
95th Chinese Corps
107th RAF Base Force
AHQ Bengal
25th Indian Mountain Gun Regiment

Defending units:
112th Infantry Regiment
27th Electric Engineer Regiment
21st Division
Imperial Guards Division
Guards Tank Division
5th Amphibious Brigade
7th Ind.Tank Brigade
6th Tank Regiment
17th Indpt Guards Regiment
4th Division
3rd RTA Division
7th RTA Division
2nd RTA Division
4th RTA Division
II./143rd Infantry Battalion
22nd Recon Regiment
I./143rd Infantry Battalion
14th Tank Regiment
3rd Militia Regiment
55th Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
6th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
13th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
7th JAAF Base Force
4th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
2nd Hvy.Artillery Regiment
26th Air Flotilla
12th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
3rd Army
28th Field AA Machinecannon Company
56th Const Co
40th Field AA Battalion
47th Road Const Co
4th RF Gun Battalion
30th Fld AA Gun Co
9th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
23rd Field AA Machinecannon Company
91st JAAF AF Bn
46th Road Const Co
22nd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
15th JAAF AF Bn
7th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
4th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
4th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
11th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
21st Medium Field Artillery Battalion
15th Army
1st Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
Tonei Hvy Gun Regiment
55th Field AA Battalion
9th Field AF Construction Battalion
57th Field AA Battalion
29th JAAF AF Coy

3) Air strikes in the region follow the pattern. Ramree is swept and is being watched. There are nine attacks on Rangoon and Pegu stacks. Some are uncoordinated effects. There are five large strikes and then stragglers. It appears there are Zeros and Bettys at Rangoon bombing that base. My rough recon (it's not good) shows more bombers than that, so I assume some are on anti-naval. The large majority come from Moulmein, including all the Helens and Sallys, with strong escorts. Most of the troop losses today come from Moulmein strikes. One does look as if it might have come from Bangkok. None from Chiang Mai I can tell (it's a Level 4(4) in my most recent look.)

Alfred is correct. Moulmein must be put down if there is any hope in the battle. Doing that may still not be enough as the Rangoon stack has taken very heavy losses, and the supply situation is not great. I will detail that after this AAR entry.

4) Other than these attacks the map is pretty quiet. Eniwetok is swept, but all planes are back on Wake. Palembang gets very cursory bombing and is nearly back in the Fort-building business. Chungking as well on the bombing.

One interesting development: it looks as if Tsuyung may have been abandoned. I last saw only one LCU there and detailed one of my four RAF recon planes in the region to take a look. DL is very low, but I see nothing. My guess is the huge host outside Chungking is sourced at least in part from the Tsuyung stack. Not useful yet, but if I can get Rangoon it becomes very useful. In sum, I think evacuating China, seen as an easy "win" for Japan, has come with problems too as garrison reqs eat up a whole lot of men and require coastal supply to be drawn deep into the mountains.

5) As a data point, this is my current air transport set-up and achievements. Movement toward Palembang continues and I have no indication it is being noticed.

2 x PBY-5 Catalina transporting 1st KNIL Regiment to Oosthaven
2 x PBY-5 Catalina transporting Batavia Base Force to Palembang
3 x PBY-5 Catalina transporting 4th KNIL Landstorm Battalion to Oosthaven
2 x Do-24K-1 transporting Batavia Base Force to Palembang
3 x Do-24K-1 transporting 4th KNIL Landstorm Battalion to Oosthaven
2 x PBY-5 Catalina transporting 1st Regt Cavalerie to Palembang
3 x PBY-5 Catalina transporting 1st KNIL Regiment to Palembang
3 x PBY-5 Catalina transporting 102nd PA Infantry Division from Cagayan
5 x DC-2 transporting supplies to Chungking
9 x R4D-1 Skytrain transporting supplies to Baker Island
1 x DC-2 transporting supplies to Daly Waters
7 x DC-3 transporting supplies to Chungking
7 x C-33 transporting supplies to Chungking
6 x C-33 transporting supplies to Buna
7 x C-47 Skytrain transporting supplies to Chungking
17 x C-47 Skytrain transporting supplies to Chungking
14 x C-47 Skytrain transporting supplies to Chungking
10 x C-47 Skytrain transporting supplies to Chungking

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/11/2013 2:44:50 PM >


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The Moose

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Post #: 1925
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 2:47:10 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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I will now post a series of screen shots to show the situation in Burma. Tracker shots are from the turn load after the AAR entry above. The hexside shot is at the start of the August 9th turn.

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The Moose

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Post #: 1926
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 2:51:53 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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The map around Rangoon. Hexsides on.






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The Moose

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Post #: 1927
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 2:56:58 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Supply state in Burma. Most is coming from Chittagong. One issue is that Bombay and Calcutta have been pull3ed dry by the incursions in Burma. I have a solid train of transport TFs coming from CT. the first two are unloading in Bombay now. The pipeline should fill up over the next ten days. But right now the Mandalay group is pulled very low, Lashio is lowish, and Toungoo cannot transship enough to support a lot of combat.

The two Chinese corps heading to occupy the hex north of Moulmein are very low on supply. One is at 60, the other a bit more.






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The Moose

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Post #: 1928
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 2:58:34 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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The LCU status at Rangoon. Note the disruption levels and the supply levels. Ignore debris at top and bottom of screenshot. Red Chinese are not at Rangoon. That was the cursor.






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< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/11/2013 2:59:58 PM >


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The Moose

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Post #: 1929
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 3:03:23 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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LCU status at Pegu. This is with the Chinese corps detailed to march to Rangoon last turn. This will be canceled on this turn. I guess it was more than five. I had remembered five.

Also, two days ago, after the attack, more than half of these units were on Reserve. Disruption has screamed down in 48 hours. Possibly due to so many HQs, including the national one, Red Chinese.





Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/11/2013 3:05:33 PM >


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The Moose

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Post #: 1930
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 3:11:45 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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VP status and flow.






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Post #: 1931
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 3:12:43 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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VP chart






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Post #: 1932
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 3:13:59 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Air losses for day and total.






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Post #: 1933
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 3:34:21 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

Before addressing Bullwinkle's suggested options one should look at the overall purpose of fighting in Lower Burma and the present assets (both enemy and Allied) available to meet the preferred outcome.


1. At Rangoon deployed forces are:

Japanese 73k troops (unadjusted AV 3200)
Allied 90k troops (unadjusted AV 3200)

The Japanese have four category 1 divs + 4 category 3 divs (Thai) plus sundry infantry/tank small units that add up to about a single category 2 div. A lot of artillery and engineers are also present.

Allied units are mainly category 1 and 2 divs with only a few category 3 divs.


2. At Pegu deployed forces are:

Japanese 65k troops (unadjusted AV 2000)
Allied 159k troops (unadjusted AV 5550)

The Japanese have 5 category 1 divs.
Almost all of the Allied units are category 3 divs with little supporting units necessary to reduce a fortified position.


3. At Moulmein deployed forces are:

Japanese 24k troops (unadjusted AV 600).

A single category 1 div + a good infantry bde are deployed.


4. All up Japan has 10 category 1 divs, plus about the equivalent of 2-3 category 2 divs, plus 4 category 3 divs in Lower Burma. This means there is no local theatre reserve. No substantial land reinforcements will become available until Java or Chungking fall. By the time that occurs British Empire forces should be on the verge of upgrading to much higher firepower devices which will negate the arrival of "fresh" enemy units.


5. Japan has local air superiority. Three good airbases (Rangoon, Moulmein and Tavoy) provide interlocking air support for Japanese operations. Allied air infrastructure is less developed. There is also a shortage of Allied airframes.


6. Local Japanese naval assets, whilst still potent, are inferior to available Allied naval resources because most of the heavy units are occupied dealing with the situation way over in the Marshall Islands. However, combined with it's control of the air, the Allied naval superiority cannot be successfully brought to play.


7. Local supply sources are insufficient to maintain the large Japanese army (162k troops) and air force deployed to hold the line. It has been a while since I have seen map displaying hexside controls but I doubt that Japan is importing most of its supply from the Chiang Mai railhead. Much more likely is that supply, under the cover of it's air force, is being shipped in to Rangoon.


8. The basic Allied strategy since 8 Dec 1941 has been to bleed enemy fuel stocks dry by early 1943. Operation FUDD was a great strategic success because it ensured denial of the substantial Magwe oil and fuel assets to Japan. It was also a tactical success as evidenced by the fact that the current supply shipments to Rangoon are economically not profitable to Japan because there is no fuel to either replenish the ship bunkers locally or to ship back to the industrial centres on the return leg. There is a steady bleeding of the pre war Japanese fuel stockpile, compounded by not yet having the large Palembang and Java oil fields/refineries.


Bullwinkle has posited the following options:

(A) withdraw both investing forces at Rangoon and Pegu to the nearest Allied bases

(B) as either force at Rangoon and Pegu is currently inadequate to achieve it's objective, concentrate forces at Rangoon with a view to capturing that base

(C) remain in situ with an eye towards maintaining the logistics and airframe drain on Japan

(D) launch one attack and then retreat

(E) move most of the Pegu army to capture the Moulmein air field which is the key to enemy air operations

(F) move most of the Pegu army to capture the Chiang Mai railhead


Some of these options are consistent with the basic Allied strategy employed to date; some are not.

Option (D) is by far the worst. It is not consistent with the fundamental Allied strategy, will not achieve any tactical benefits and will just gut the Allied armies.

Option (A) removes the pressure on Japan. It is the second worst option whose only merit is if Bullwinkle is finding it impossible to feed his two advanced armies. Even then the retreat would have a faint ring of the retreat from Moscow as the enemy air force pounds the units both on the retreat and once they reach Bassein/Prome and Toungoo.

Option (B), which is Bullwinkle's preferred option, suffers from 3 key elements:

(i) the shifting of category 3 divs to Rangoon is unlikely to overcome the Japanese fortification and terrain benefits (plus any matching shifting from Pegu by Japan too)
(ii) time will be wasted as the reinforcing Chinese change their objective and it climbs towards the 100 mark
(iii) does nothing to neutralise the key Japanese asset which is holding the position together (viz the air force) or bring into play additional Allied assets (viz the navy)

Essentially this option is merely trying a bigger hammer to knockdown the front door. The odds for success are poor.

Option (C) is OK but does represent a lost opportunity. The Allied flak will continue to exact it's pound of flesh wherever the army is, be it at Pegu or en route to another destination.

Option (F) would be good if, if, if Rangoon is importing it's supplies from there. I don't think it is. Chiang Mai would still be a good move if it was part of a general move into Thailand, but that is not the case here whilst the key port for such an invasion, Rangoon, remains enemy controlled. Chiang Mai is therefore a side show. Which brings us to Option (E)...

Striking at Moulmein is good. The Tavoy airfield is not a sufficiently good airfield, both in terms of size and location, to fully compensate for the loss of Moulmein. Capture Moulmein and the short range Allied fighters can be brought into play to both confront the current enemy CAS and open up the possibility of deploying Allied naval assets to interdict supply or bombard the Rangoon located enemy air force/army. It opens a port to resupply the Allied army which can move on Tavoy whilst threatening an invasion of Thailand. It outflanks the main enemy forces and exposes the lack of an enemy theatre reserve.

Just don't rely solely on releasing units from the Pegu investment forces if you move on Moulmein. Thin out the Rangoon forces too which can take advantage of the terrain there to have fewer troops present than the enemy. Plus if you thin out the Pegu forces you encourage the enemy to attack the Chinese who are best used holding a defensive position.

Alfred


This is the kind of structured analysis I strive for, but don't achieve.

Alfred is quite correct that it is the air forces which are stopping the Allies from making progress. Although this effort is costing him hundreds of planes, much HI, and many pilots it is also costing me British and Indian devices which I can't replace. Overall though the battle is eating up calendar and stopping Japan from accessing the petroleum in Burma, which is the whole idea really.

My concern about Chiang Mai is mostly the RR being used to get LCUs north from Bangkok, not so much supply. However, I have only seen the LCUs which were already there move west to Moulmein. There may be more down south, but probably not much more given the size of the stacks at Rangoon/Pegu as well as Chungking.

Supply is not good, as shown in the Tracker screens. I hope to improve it in the next week to ten days. It's not low, but it's not at a level I can attack on many days in a row.

Moulmein will be next effort. That air field is the linchpin. I need to carefully allocate Chinese forces to move there while not making Pegu so weak the remainders there can be routed and retreated. Even if I get Moulmein I don't have fighters enough to bring the RN in close to stop supply convoys to Rangoon. Not yet. I can snipe at them from Port Blair as they pass, but not much else. Subs too of course. Colombo is a major sub base now, with a lot of USN fleet boats as well as Dutch/RN.

Per Alfred's point about moving some of the Rangoon stack to help at Moulmein, I will do that, but the Rangoon stack is brittle. I have some theater reserves heading there from Prome, but after that the cupboard is pretty bare. The Mandalay area is mostly being held by base forces.

If I could take Moulmein then the possibilities are much wider, as Alfred says. If he thins Rangoon at all I will pounce. The central Burma, northern Thailand bases are not defended. Bangkok reserves, if any, would probably have to be moved north. I need to be careful about the Indo-China border for four more months until the militia division activation rule fades. But there is plenty to do outside Indo-China.

To answer Alfred's other question in the follow-on post: I have used Reserve a fair bit in both stacks. So far as I know Reserve does not protect from air attack, which is what's killing me. It does seem to lower disruption quickly and protects from ground bombardment.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/11/2013 3:38:12 PM >


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The Moose

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 1934
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 3:41:25 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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The campaign to take Moulmein will be Operation MUTTLEY.







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(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1935
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 3:42:45 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Muttley in action.






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Post #: 1936
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 4:15:46 PM   
catwhoorg


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

The campaign to take Moulmein will be Operation MUTTLEY.




A Dastardly name indeed

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1937
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 4:32:14 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: catwhoorg


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

The campaign to take Moulmein will be Operation MUTTLEY.




A Dastardly name indeed


Yep, and one of the best laughs in show biz.

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The Moose

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Post #: 1938
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 7:55:55 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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August 9, 1942

Events In Motion

A get-ready turn. Will try to keep this short after this morning's mega-posts.

1) Ten bombers, half the night force, get lost. The others run into reported thunderstorms, odd as we're playing with weather OFF. Never seen that text line before. Put some on night Port attacks to try to get unloading TFs at Rangoon and Moulmein. No joy. FWIW, Rangoon has a night CAP of 20 Zeros. They disrupted the runs a good deal. Lost two to flak.

The only one that gets through and drops keeps the fires burning a bit.

Night Air attack on Rangoon , at 54,53

Weather in hex: Thunderstorms

Raid spotted at 17 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 9

Allied aircraft
B-24D Liberator x 3

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-24D Liberator: 2 damaged

Manpower hits 1
Fires 1151

2) The peeping on Ramree gets an I-boat visit. Two unloading xAKLs are sunk.

3) Standard air ops at Eniwetok, PBang, Chungking, Pegu, and Rangoon. Some Sallys working out of Rangoon, or maybe just mission-shifted. About 300 casualties. Several Hurris lost.

4) B-17s hit Truk. CAP is up to 40 Zeros. No damage. Four B-17s lost on way home. Several Zeros shot down. Rabaul is half way to Level 6, and the Air HQ the B-17s all belong to is passing Suva headed for Rabaul. Might help coordination.

5) Push on Soerbaja, which is rapidly being cleaned out of aircraft. Supply there down to 1200. Some repairing cruisers, the target of the strike. He got a hit, but it was costly.

Afternoon Air attack on Soerabaja , at 56,104

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G3M2 Nell x 14

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 12
Sea Hurricane Ib x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 3 destroyed, 8 damaged
G3M2 Nell: 2 destroyed by flak

No Allied losses

Afternoon Air attack on Soerabaja , at 56,104

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid detected at 32 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 23
G4M1 Betty x 52

Allied aircraft
Fulmar II x 11
Sea Hurricane Ib x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed
G4M1 Betty: 26 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
Fulmar II: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CA Exeter, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Port hits 1

MUTTLEY is underway. Forces ordered to march to rally point north of Moulmein, across river, for Shock attack together.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1939
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 8:08:24 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 5070
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
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Was Exeter hit before?

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1940
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/11/2013 9:52:24 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Was Exeter hit before?


Yes. In the battle NE of Soerbaja by carriers.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 1941
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/12/2013 6:34:08 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 5070
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Was Exeter hit before?


Yes. In the battle NE of Soerbaja by carriers.


Will she make it? I really like the RN CAs. In my (admittedly very limited experience) they seem to do a lot better then even the modern US counterparts.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1942
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/12/2013 8:28:36 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 3687
Joined: 9/28/2006
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With the additional data provided there are some significant refinements to be made to the analysis.

1. You are leaving about 3300 AV at Pegu and shifting about 1800 AV out to Moulmein. This 1800 AV together with what you have next to Moulmein constitutes the entire Operation Muttley strike force. That is not enough. You can thin out another 400-500 AV from Pegu for Muttley.

2. The Rangoon investing forces are not that brittle and you can afford to thin them out by 400-500 AV. A couple of approaches are possible there.

(a) send the 7th AIF over to Muttley, or
(b) send the British bdes plus 1-2 Indian units to Muttley

The four Chinese units at Rangoon (1230 AV) will do fine on the defence, especially if corseted with the Australians

3. The recommendations of points 1 and 2 above is based on the fact you do not have time for the Muttley units to get anywhere near 100 preparation points for Moulmein. You need to use brute force to quickly capture Moulmein. For that, relying upon Chinese units is too risky unless a sledgehammer is brought. Thus instead of your contemplated 1800 AV (plus what is currently next to Moulmein), I am recommending Muttley have 2600-2800 AV.

4. You are not using replacements and reserve mode well. Reserve mode is the game equivalent to the real world rotation of units. Here are some practical suggestions of how you should be approaching replacements and reserve mode.

(a) at Pegu, as a minimum the following Chinese units should be moved into reserve mode:

15 Corps
21 Corps
83 Corps
89 Corps
5 Cav
8 New

All six units are currently in combat mode with the following respective AV - 26, 9, 27, 0, 0, 19. That is an average AV of 13 which means they are completely useless in combat. By virtue that they must be in such a condition due to having most of their devices disabled, all they provide is easy kills and VPs to Japan.

(b) turn off replacements. You need to be much more judicious in selecting who receives replacements. Taking replacements should be viewed as taking small bites of your meal and fully masticating before taking another bite; not stuffing your mouth and speed swallowing. As the replacements will come in as disabled devices it does not make sense to have them arriving in units with a high disabled rate already. In particular do not have replacements turned on for units in reserve. The first priority for units in reserve is to recover their disabled devices and often (I don't know if this applies here) recover their organic supply levels. Adding disabled replacements, which also costs supply thereby retarding the build up of the unit's organic supply, is not the way to go.

(c) units in reserve mode will not be targeted by enemy aircraft. Ground Attack targets the strongest units as measured by their AV. Thus units in reserve mode with a low AV will be overlooked when there is a rich target environment of much stronger LCUs.

5. The follow up to the previous point with regard to the Rangoon units is that the 45th Recce Tank Regt and the 150th RAC Tank Regt with respective AV of 0 and 19 should be put into reserve mode.

6. Currently you have three LCUs next to Moulmein. They have been given bad movement orders which do not assist with Muttley.

(a) South West of Moulmein, the unit has a due east movement arrow.
(b) the two Chinese units due east of Moulmein have been given orders to recross the Salween to the rally point north of Moulmein.

Both these movements considerably weaken Muttley. Instead what you should do is cancel their movements so that eventually, after the main Muttley force from Pegu/Rangoon has forced the Salween into Moulmein, they can enter Moulmein from different hexsides which cuts off enemy retreat paths. To fully effect that you should move one of the Chinese units to the southwest so that it can enter Moulmein from the SE hexside. None of these units will be crossing a river when they enter so there is no good reason for them to not subsequently enter Moulmein singly. Even just positioning them outside of Moulmein, although it makes them vulnerable to a relieving force, will cut off the LOC and is better than what you intend doing.

7. You have several units, all presumably small, with movement arrows indicating they will enter Rangoon and Pegu through green coloured hexsides. That is a lost opportunity as I doubt their additional combat power will add much to what is already present in those two locations. You should instead move them to enter via red coloured hexsides. Time is not of the essence with regard to Rangoon and Pegu; well at least not until Muttley is over. This way you remove any possibility of supply coming from the Chiang Mai railhead plus it opens up additional retreat paths for your units if subsequently found to be necessary.

8. In the interim consider using your 2Es to hit Chiang Mai which apparently have reached level 4 already. Purpose:

(a) force up supply consumption at Chiang Mai to retard the growth of excess supply there which could be exported to Rangoon/Pegu,
(b) prevent further development its airfields so that is cannot be fully substituted for the loss of Moulmein,
(c) conserve Allied airframes whilst still contributing to Muttley indirectly

Alfred

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 1943
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/12/2013 3:59:38 PM   
catwhoorg


Posts: 638
Joined: 9/27/2012
From: Uk expat lving near Atlanta
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


Will she make it? I really like the RN CAs. In my (admittedly very limited experience) they seem to do a lot better then even the modern US counterparts.


Exeter, Achilles - both ships I have a great affection for in the game.

No prizes for guessing why.

A shame we don't get to play with HMS Ajax, but she was mainly in the Med, then out of action for a good long stretch.

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 1944
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/12/2013 4:57:25 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8541
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Was Exeter hit before?


Yes. In the battle NE of Soerbaja by carriers.


Will she make it? I really like the RN CAs. In my (admittedly very limited experience) they seem to do a lot better then even the modern US counterparts.


I'd say the odds are about 80:20 against. System damage is in the high 50s, and major flooding is also bad and can't be fixed there. If I can get System down enough to survive the flooding there's only two ways out. The eastern route is lousy with carriers and cruisers, and hugging the coast to Batavia and running the Sunda Strait is full of subs and his air search, backed up by torpedo planes.

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 1945
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/12/2013 5:18:44 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8541
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
To Alfred.

Wow. You would be a very scary opponent.

Clearly my grasp of the land game is at very average levels. Some I did not know, such as the Reserve mode mechanisms and air attacks. I was also operating under the assumption that I had a ticking clock on Chinese replacement at all vis a vis Chungking. Replacements seem to me to have a very large random factor; I have always left the taps open everywhere to try to beat the odds and get some replacements in somewhere. I had not thought through the idea of not replacing in Reserve units. I was more of a "they're safer, put new men there" mindset. Your explanation makes sense and is 180 degrees from my past practices.

I also do not think enough about hexsides. Part of it is playing with hexes off at all. Part of it is too high a focus on roads and rails and an aversion to going cross-country in Burma. But you are completely right on closing off sides with soft, weak, throw-away units, of which I have many in the area. I have made his air targeting job a lot easier. If I were playing this again starting three months ago I'd do a lot differently.

I have been thinking of Chiang Mai as first a RR problem (Bangkok), and secondarily as a minor AF problem. But Level 4, potential 7, is not minor any longer. And your points about supply seepage to the battle zone is one I had not thought of.

The three units near Moulmein have a checkered past. The brown Indian one on the coast is the Tavoy refugees, pounded to mush and out of supply. I don't know if the Tavoy Japanese are right behind them or if they stayed put. I have no recon available. I had seen them wholly as a hexside blocking force, either on the road from Tavoy, or one hex to the east. They can't survive any sort of supplied attack. The two Chinese I aimed to the rally point two turns ago I think to hold the hex, as well as add low-supply but otherwise good AV to the mix. On the last turn one Japanese LCU appeared in the rally hex. Don't know what it is. Pegu LCU count is the same, but I get a read of one xAP in Moulmein harbor, so it might be new. Regardless, your point about leaving those two Chinese units south of the river to join the stack without the crossing is good. But they are very low on supply.

I hear you on the Auusie 7th. After the two USMC divisions it's my favorite LCU right now. It has taken very, very little damage from the air. I think it has six disabled squads, pretty amazing. I hesitate to move it, but I think it's my best shot. As you say, Moulmein will not have good prep. In some cases virtually no prep. My hesitation is because Chinese units can do OK as they stand, but when they break and rout the losses are fearsome.

Overall I agree with you I have to re-do my replacement settings. They were driven by misunderstanding and misremembering (pick one ) the mechanics of how replacements arrive disabled. Head slapper.

Thanks a bunch, Alfred. Moulmein may not work, but this whole campaign has been a massive learning experience.


< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/12/2013 6:36:33 PM >


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The Moose

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 1946
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/12/2013 6:07:05 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8541
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
Start of August 11th turn.






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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1947
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/12/2013 6:12:52 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 5070
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Thanks a bunch, Alfred. Moulmein may not work, but this whole campaign has been a massive learning experience.



Learning by doing. The best way to do it.

I hope the Exeter makes it. If I remember correctly she is not scheduled for withdrawal which makes her extra valuable!

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1948
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/12/2013 6:29:39 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8541
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
August 10, 1942

Soerbaja Hit

1) The noose around Soerbaja tightens. AG Canopus, running a single-ship supply run into the beleaguered base, is sunk in open water north of Oz by I-164. One more xAKL is en route, but there are no good options to supply the base. Batavia has supply but no ships. The route in from the east is plugged tight by the IJN. I have taken all but a token CAP out so no air is using supply. Levels went to 120 today.

Several ships are trying to patch enough to sortie, but a very heavy port raid hurt those prospects today. Japanese losses were stiff, but three ships were further wounded.

Afternoon Air attack on Soerabaja , at 56,104

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 35 NM, estimated altitude 7,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 16
B5N2 Kate x 3
G3M2 Nell x 6
G4M1 Betty x 48

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M2 Nell: 5 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 24 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied Ships
CL Concord, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CA Exeter, Bomb hits 1, heavy damage
DD Fortune, Bomb hits 1, on fire, heavy damage

Port hits 4

2) Tabiteuea dot base near Tarawa went to Level 1 AF this week. A bunch of ships are there. SS Snapper pokes her nose in and gets hammered for 22 hits, one penetrating. She auto-routes back to Pearl. We'll see.

Ro-34 is patrolling near Akyab, probably trying to further cut Ramree off. Very little is going in there. Chittagong is the main supply base for the Burma effort.

In better news, Tarpon also goes into Toyohara and puts a fish into large E-escorted xAK Tamagawa Maru, leaving her on fire.

3) Burma night bombing sees one raid get lost. Three remaining Liberators hit Rangoon Manpower. No damage, one lost, two damaged.

4) Japanese bombing in Burma is bad, but I have not instituted the changes discussed above in Alfred's posts. At least with MUTTLEY as a plan there is a point to it all.

Allied daytime bombing tries to go high/low. B-17s at 32,000, Blenheims at 22,000, the rest at 100, 1000, and 2000 feet. Only the Blens get through, for two hits and 686 Fires. Two kinds of Zeros and Tojo are a normal CAP now. The Forts lose one with two damaged.

Japan does one odd raid, sending a force all the way up to Magwe. I suspect a unit probe. It is a ground attack and give a locate on one defender. There are more than that there.

Morning Air attack on 104th RAF Base Force, at 57,47 (Magwe)

Weather in hex: Heavy rain

Raid detected at 33 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 10
G3M3 Nell x 3
G4M1 Betty x 3

Japanese aircraft losses
G3M3 Nell: 1 damaged

5) PBang bombing has slacked off enough that Forts get in two points of build today. Chungking has cursory attention as well. Supplies there stay at 420 every day, with big LCUs at 100% supply, but many AA and base forces at zero.

6) Building:

Mare Island expands airfield to size 5
Ulak Island expands fortifications to size 2
Trincomalee expands airfield to size 7
Imphal expands airfield to size 5
Madras expands port to size 8
Vizagapatnam expands fortifications to size 3
Cocos Islands expands airfield to size 5

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/12/2013 6:34:08 PM >


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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1949
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/12/2013 9:53:08 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8541
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Achieved on August 10. I seeeeee you!







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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 1950
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