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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

 
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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 7:56:47 PM   
Chickenboy


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1. The B5M3 Mabel three ship element starts is restricted to China. Unless he buys 'em out, that's all you'll see of them. There's a similarly small Val unit that starts in the vicinity of Formosa as well.

2. The Chinese will make a much bigger 'oof' noise than that moving forward. Not to bum you out, but 719 casualties for the Chinese is a good day.

3. Nice commentary about your PBEM opponent. Finding a good one and sharing a game with them is really a great experience.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 8:04:00 PM   
DOCUP


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Bull, from my POV your doing pretty good.  Interesting strategy in China.  If you can hold part of China it will help in retaking it later on.  Keep up the good work. 

Honk honk as I drive by

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Post #: 122
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 8:07:18 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I think he'll expand the Kates, but we have non-historical R&D on. How soon do you think he could get the next DB in line? (I'm not even sure what it is without looking it up.) Do you think it's close in enough he might not want to expand Val produciton much?


The D3A2 is crap. Few Japanese players will either build or research it, focusing instead on the D4Y1 Judy. Depending on his research, look for D4Y1 production to kick in early-mid 1943. It's all about the D3A1 until then. He will certainly build Vals through that time, but can't say how much he'd want to expand them. Losing bunches of them in the first two weeks of the war will probably influence his production moving forward.

quote:


I have no idea how aggressive he naturally is in the air war versus other phases. I'm going to try to hurt his petroleum situation from now to then, but I recall Scen 2 givng a pretty fair cushion, even if he operates the navy a lot. Maybe 16 months at least?


Yes. Lots of oil and fuel surplus in scenario 2 start. Truk has >100,000 fuel to begin with and more than that in supply forward. This will last him several months of forward activity for KB. In terms of home islands supply, the huge oil and fuel surplus in scenario 2 makes supply of the home islands much easier for the Japanese player.

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Post #: 123
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 8:10:39 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't have hard evidence he's still using Babel-de-bob for a base, but he probably is.


Almost certainly he is. There's a bunch of units that starts there that are detailed for Mindanao and other SW DEI territorial conquest that he-at the least-needs to pick up and deliver. Can you detail an amphibious recon plane from Ambon (sufficient range?) to snoop? I'd bet its choc-a-bloc full of ships sporting the purty flower on the front.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 10/15/2012 8:13:22 PM >


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Post #: 124
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 8:17:08 PM   
Encircled


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I'm assuming you have all your Dutch bombers on training?

Even if they only get a couple of weeks, it means they might hit something, rather than nothing.

Ok, it was against the AI, but a couple of 350 kg bombs from those WH whatdoyoucallits stopped the Zuikaku dead in the water. I was amazed

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Post #: 125
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 9:48:50 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yaab

I would keep an eye on three Chinese infantry units, namely 3rd New Chinese Corps, 5th Chinese Corps and 6th Chinese Corps.They stay on map for the entire war and can be attached to a different HQ.They all have the US equipped TOE, which means they receive 36 37mm AA guns (Japs cannot bomb these corps wthout punishment as they usually do) and have 36 squads of combat engineers for assaulting fortified positions. I would prioritise these three units for replacements.


Second post on this.

I looked in Tracker at these three, got confused, looked in the game and got more confused. The 3rd New and the 6th are fine, and as you say are great units. I changed my plans and orders for them before I sent the turn back.

The 5th Corps shows in Tracker, and it shows under the "Active" label, but has nothing in it, and is listed as Pending. There's no history for it so far either.

When I look in the game it's not there and there is no queue entry for it. There is a 5th New, but it's weak and not close to the OOB you describe.

Is the 5th some kind of forming structure for something coming later under a different name or something? Or am I blind and it's in the game somewhere?

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The Moose

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Post #: 126
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 9:57:25 PM   
DOCUP


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I see 4 chinese corps that can be bought out.  The 3rd, 5th (11th Army Group), 6th, and the 66th.

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Post #: 127
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 10:26:17 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: princep01

Moose, of course you must choose what to defend and what to let go as you are severly limited in unrestricted ground forces to begin.  However, I do like to hold Pago-Pago with a regiment and a few other odds and ends (especially a CD unit).  It is one of the first places I send a free regiment and engineering elements as it generally will become the base from which my paltrey 1942 "offensive" actions originate.  It also serves as "the corner" for convoys to Oz and the Ziwis.  Yes, he can take it with the forces he has available if he cares to commit heavy forces, but a regiment and the odds and ends stop the SNFL/Nav Gd grabs and sometimes is a nice place to crack a few Japanese skulls if he comes with only the light forces.

Canton Is. is also one of the few places I really try to hold in the early going for much the same reason as Canton.  Securing a pipeline to OZ is an important early objective for the Allies.

I am not familar with Japan's OB for Senario 2 and whether he starts with much in the Marshalls and Gilberts, but in Scenario 1 games there is not much there for him to play with.  You can generally beat him to these objectives unless he goes for them initially.

I fully understand you dilemma however.  It is hard to decide where to defend and when it is reasonable to launch those 1942 spoiling attacks.

Best of luck to you.


I'm a moose; I'm stubborn.

Right now I'm testing the proposition that the Allies can get a lot of strategic grease by NOT defending the southern tier and using CT-to-Perth for the main supply highway. In a no-HR game played to code off-map movement at Full speed works to flood the pipeline pretty fast once the SRA refugee hulls get to CT. Off-map heavy hauling saves a lot of fuel over the WC-to-Oz runs, you don't have escort the whole first leg at all, and ship damage is confined to ports with repair on both ends. The UK starts with a 600,000+ supply pile on Day One, and I aim to haul the stuffin' out of it too.

Of course, the Achilles heel of this is holding Perth, and him sending interdiction to the wormhole region. If he does I'll replan. Right now I have the beginning of a decent Diego Garcia force heading out of CT to begin building a patrol base. I could also base some of my incoming 2E B-bombers at DG if he uses surface raiders. Subs are harder, and if he goes hard at sub interdiction it may be a Battle of the Atlantic situation for 1942. I think I can shove enough through to Oz to win that, but it's never been well-tested that I know of.

I REALLY want to avoid the whole long haul to Oz thing. I know from AI games how nasty Canton I. can be with Bettys there. It's a standard script which fires as soon as Tarawa and Makin are taken. (So far he has not moved on Tarawa or Makin; these are first 72-hours landings for the AI.) I want to use my escorts for something other than long-range escort. Part of my VP plan in 1942 is to give him as few chances to sink my ships as I can and still operate a defense. That long haul across the bottom is a nest of snakes. CAs have the range to come down there from multiple bases and hit with no warning, supported by Glen-subs for vectoring. I just don't want to do it unless I have no other choice. If he ends up knocking on New Zealand I probably made a bad call though.

Through the years I've given some players maximum grief about their initial deployments. It's on the other foot now. I realize how much a NorPac incursion can mess up your day, so I'm going to detail some US forces which a lot of players would send to the South Seas to that region. I don't want to be the first Allied player to see if you can win after Seattle's aircraft plants are burned to the ground.

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The Moose

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 10:33:23 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I think he'll expand the Kates, but we have non-historical R&D on. How soon do you think he could get the next DB in line? (I'm not even sure what it is without looking it up.) Do you think it's close in enough he might not want to expand Val produciton much?


The D3A2 is crap. Few Japanese players will either build or research it, focusing instead on the D4Y1 Judy. Depending on his research, look for D4Y1 production to kick in early-mid 1943. It's all about the D3A1 until then. He will certainly build Vals through that time, but can't say how much he'd want to expand them. Losing bunches of them in the first two weeks of the war will probably influence his production moving forward.

quote:


I have no idea how aggressive he naturally is in the air war versus other phases. I'm going to try to hurt his petroleum situation from now to then, but I recall Scen 2 givng a pretty fair cushion, even if he operates the navy a lot. Maybe 16 months at least?


Yes. Lots of oil and fuel surplus in scenario 2 start. Truk has >100,000 fuel to begin with and more than that in supply forward. This will last him several months of forward activity for KB. In terms of home islands supply, the huge oil and fuel surplus in scenario 2 makes supply of the home islands much easier for the Japanese player.


Ah, yes, the Judy. Nice plane from what I recall. Heckuva kami too. I thought they were earlier than that, so good, he'll need to lean on Vals.

I remember CR's game with Chez and thinking CR could run him out of gas after the Fortress Palembang worked, but Chez never seemed to sweat it. And in this game the Magic Highway will be unmolested all the way to Korea, so I have my work cut out stuffing Oil and Fuel. At least there are no strat bombing rules.

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The Moose

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Post #: 129
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 10:38:16 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Ah, yes, the Judy. Nice plane from what I recall. Heckuva kami too.


Yes, not bad. Faster with a better payload (500kg standard fare). It must make a nice 'splat' as a kamikaze too. The '3' service rating (versus the Val's '1') stinks (D4Y3 reverts to a '1') though. For carrier duty, this isn't that big a deal, but can be an annoyance unless managed.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 10:42:40 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't have hard evidence he's still using Babel-de-bob for a base, but he probably is.


Almost certainly he is. There's a bunch of units that starts there that are detailed for Mindanao and other SW DEI territorial conquest that he-at the least-needs to pick up and deliver. Can you detail an amphibious recon plane from Ambon (sufficient range?) to snoop? I'd bet its choc-a-bloc full of ships sporting the purty flower on the front.


Ambon is close to empty and the planes are hauling troops rearward. I got a thin read on Legaspi this last turn and there were supposed CS, CV, and five AOs there, FWIW. (Not much.) The port isn't big enough to rearm without an AKE. He might have pulled one of the minis in there for CAP over the unload. Don't know.

I'm not doing a lot of recon; probably should think deeper on it. Never did much before. Right now my theory is it's better to haul a couple of squads with a patrol plane than find something I have no way to attack. I'm also still trying to get used to looking at intel every turn. There was no need with the AI.

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The Moose

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 10:45:19 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

I'm assuming you have all your Dutch bombers on training?

Even if they only get a couple of weeks, it means they might hit something, rather than nothing.

Ok, it was against the AI, but a couple of 350 kg bombs from those WH whatdoyoucallits stopped the Zuikaku dead in the water. I was amazed

quote:

Pa


Right now the "fat ones" are on naval, but nothing has come in range to interest them.

I took the Brit Hudsons off naval after two days and put them on night airfield. They put a hole or two in KB's Af, but at least they don't hurt themselves.

If the Dutch can hold out just awhile they get some B-bombers which can do some good things north of Soerbaja.

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The Moose

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Post #: 132
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 10:55:21 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

I see 4 chinese corps that can be bought out.  The 3rd, 5th (11th Army Group), 6th, and the 66th.


This is what Tracker shows. It's Inactive even though Active is set in the pull-down. The hover note says the 5th is "not active in this Scenario." We're playing Scenario 2; I didn't know that one changed anything at all for the Allies.






Attachment (1)

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The Moose

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 11:03:12 PM   
Dan Nichols


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You have to assemble the 5th Chinese Corps. All the pieces start in or NW of Kumming. There are 6(?) small units that combine to be the 5th Corps.

I think the 66th also has to be assembled from a couple of smaller units.

< Message edited by Dan Nichols -- 10/15/2012 11:04:56 PM >

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 11:14:52 PM   
DOCUP


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I don't see it either in Scen 2

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/15/2012 11:24:31 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Dan Nichols

You have to assemble the 5th Chinese Corps. All the pieces start in or NW of Kumming. There are 6(?) small units that combine to be the 5th Corps.

I think the 66th also has to be assembled from a couple of smaller units.


I found it by poking around up there. Tracker treats it very oddly. It's listed as a Reenforcement, but with no components or arrival date.

Anyway, thanks for the help. I'll put it together . . .






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/15/2012 11:25:57 PM >


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The Moose

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Post #: 136
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/16/2012 4:09:44 AM   
jmalter

 

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hi Moose, just de-lurking here to wish you best success in your game. i already 'advised' 1EJ on something (b/4 i'd read anything of yours), but i think i'll enjoy this match more if i just read both sides, & don't post 'advice' to either.

except for the occaisional BZ or 'thppptt' to either of you, as req'd.
cheers,
jM


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Post #: 137
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/16/2012 2:29:20 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jmalter

hi Moose, just de-lurking here to wish you best success in your game. i already 'advised' 1EJ on something (b/4 i'd read anything of yours), but i think i'll enjoy this match more if i just read both sides, & don't post 'advice' to either.

except for the occaisional BZ or 'thppptt' to either of you, as req'd.
cheers,
jM




Welcome. And stop giving that evil man any help!

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The Moose

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Post #: 138
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/16/2012 4:23:38 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
I don't have hard evidence he's still using Babel-de-bob for a base, but he probably is.


Almost certainly he is. There's a bunch of units that starts there that are detailed for Mindanao and other SW DEI territorial conquest that he-at the least-needs to pick up and deliver. Can you detail an amphibious recon plane from Ambon (sufficient range?) to snoop? I'd bet its choc-a-bloc full of ships sporting the purty flower on the front.


Ambon is close to empty and the planes are hauling troops rearward. I got a thin read on Legaspi this last turn and there were supposed CS, CV, and five AOs there, FWIW. (Not much.) The port isn't big enough to rearm without an AKE. He might have pulled one of the minis in there for CAP over the unload. Don't know.

I'm not doing a lot of recon; probably should think deeper on it. Never did much before. Right now my theory is it's better to haul a couple of squads with a patrol plane than find something I have no way to attack. I'm also still trying to get used to looking at intel every turn. There was no need with the AI.


IIRC, Scenario 2 starts with an AKE at Babeldoap for the IJN. Dunno if he's moved it or not, but Ambon wouldn't be a far move. It's even a logical forward resupply base for any incursions into N. Australia.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/16/2012 4:29:15 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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December 12, 1941

The Hawaiian Plot thickens . . . I'm Happy . . . Mama Said There'd Be Days Like This


Night Phase

1) Just what IS the North American record for ASW attacks? This turn might have exceeded it. I stopped counting, but it had to be 15+, mostly around Pearl. Lots of rattling and shaking, but no penetrating hits. He expended round after round of fish for no hits, so my evil plot is working. The gaggle west of Lanai hasn't moved. Starting to wonder if this is a game artifact.

2) Landings underway continue underway. Davao, Guam, etc.

3) Two new large surface TFs are noted in the DEI. One a CL and seven DDs, which sink AS Otus near Guiuan (I was hoping to use her at Brisbane), and the other, more significant

BB Nagato
BB Fuso
BB Ise
BB Hyuga
CL Yura
DD Wakatake
DD Sanae

which combine to sink a lowly xAKL refugee near Babel-de-bob, and later two more near Siargao during the day. This indicates a southerly course and these guys may be headed toward Borneo to cause me trouble. Perhpas a rearm stop at Babel-de-bob first.

These together with the two BBs with the KB and I have most of them semi-located. The CAs seem to be primarily in the S. China Sea and with the KB. He seems to not mind mixing in CLs with BBs, a code tactic I'm not sure works well, but I could be wrong. So far he doesn't mix CLs and CAs at all from what I recall.

Day Phase

1) Sweeps at Clark result in 4:5 loss ratio for the Japanese. These have slowed, possibly due to fatigue and need for repairs. My P-40s are nearly spent; no replacements will be attempted in the PI. For the third or fourth day he does an Oscar sweep at Kuantan which has no Allied aircraft and never has. This could be for training.

2) Unescorted Betty attacks on the resting DD TF at Manila, bombs mixed with torps, 6 each, then another on PTs at Manila, bombs. No hits on either. My CAP was down from the sweeps or this could have been costly.

3) China bombing mostly ineffectual; I think he's too high for the training level. About even split HK and road troops. Where he hits I take 30-50 disabled, no KIA squads. Also two Nate naval attacks at 100 feet in west Malaysia, bomb and strafe, on HDML pipsqueaks. 1 shell hit. These guys are there as sortie bait only, so they're working. But it's good to see Nate pilots earning their rice ball.

4) My "maximum effort" PI Cats on naval has mixed results. One falls to flak, two damaged. They mix bombs with torps, even though torps are well-stocked at Manila. One torp duds, one bomb hits XAK at Legsapi. In second attack torp finds XAK for fire and heavy damage. I will return the Cats to search, as my Dutch subs need help and I suspect the war will come to Tarakan soon. I will consider at least one more Cat strike before the final hours.

5) In my happiest moment of the day I recieve this:

Morning Air attack on Miri , at 64,87

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17D Fortress x 9

No Allied losses

Oil hits 8

8000 supply to be hauled in, a reduction in production for a bit. I really didn't expect the Forts to fly. The red vector aimed right back at Batavia, so I expect a reaction of some kind. I need to decide how to play the Forts, as I did buy out 8 more last turn to Batavia. I'm not sure what he can do in the next five turns or so, but after that who knows? I would like to knock down about 50 points of Oil at Miri and Brunei if possible. He has a lot to spare in Scen 2, but every bit lost helps me.

6) Other day air activity is sweeps at Clark (1:2 Japan), Betty attack at crippled AMs/PG at Cebu (all three will be toast), and yet another unescorted Betty attack on the Manila DDs. This time there are P-40s but they do not attack. Seagulls fly and hit with two mini-bombs on unloading AP at Legsapi.

7) One air action is concerning. At Johnson Island I get:

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Johnston Island at 165,111

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 6
B5M1 Mabel x 4

No Japanese losses

Allied Ships
AM Robin, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires, heavy damage

As below, this is precursor to landings at Johnson I. The red attack vector was at about 300 degrees, a direction the KB could easily be at. Recall I had Mabel attacks at PH. Further, I don't think any active IJN CV, CVL, or CVE starts with a Mabel air group, and in Scen 2 he has about 120 Kates in the pools. So what's this? Did he swap out Mabels for Kates just to use them up? The PC Taney sighting action showed the "traditional" KB (photo up thread), but it's possible he could have stashed a CVL TF with grounded planes off to the NW of PH. Or, he could have split off the Mabel-carrying CV from the KB, maybe with a buddy or three, sent half to Truk, and half to circle around to the west to support a Johnson I. invasion, with the troops being that radio intel sniff I got three days ago.

So, again, what was this attack? Mabels on naval attack he forgot about? A coincidence, with the KB en masse leaving the area? Bait for my two at-sea CVs, which I don't think he has a sighting on?

This is important because of . . .

8) Pre-Invasion action off Johnston Island (164,112) - Coastal Guns Fire Back!
Defensive Guns engage approaching landing force

32 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Japanese Ships
CM Okinoshima, Shell hits 1
CM Tokiwa, Shell hits 1
xAK Tenyo Maru
DD Yunagi
PB Nagata Maru
xAK Kamikaze Maru

Japanese ground losses:
38 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

From later intel it looks like a SNLF and a Naval Guard Unit. The CMs are essentially cruisers, enough for Johnson.

But why? How does a landing here help him? It's too close to Hawaii to last unless it's part of something bigger. Without multi-base support he can't put enough LBA there to close Pearl. Is it pure bait? My CVs are about due east of Christmas Island, fairly low on fuel. I have a lone 10,000 pt. replenishmnet ship heading in from San Diego; it's all I have at the moment and it doesn't buy much station keeping. Do I go up and challenge this landing and then run like the devil? Or do I refuse the bait and see if another shoe will drop in the Hawaiian Islands in the next week?

Another possibility, lower probability IMO, is this is a way to blind Johnson so he can land on Christmas I. with that TF I sniffed, and the Johnson landing force was a due-east TF I never saw at all in the middle of the fuss at PH. Taking Christmas helps him a lot more IMO, if he thinks I have to run E-W log runs ot Oz. He can back-fill Tarawa, Makin, Canton, and Baker in the coming weeks at his leisure. If that's the case I would be better served leaving my CVs near Christmas to guard that landing. This depends on him not knowing I got that intel sniff. So, decisions, decisions. I also still have not moved Saratoga from San Diego, but she has but one DD available for escort right now.

9) Amphibious Assault at Johnston Island (164,112) Fails

TF 15 troops unloading over beach at Johnston Island, 164,112

Japanese ground losses:
23 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

17 troops of a SNLF Squad lost from landing craft during unload of 51st Nav Gd /2

Ground combat at Johnston Island (164,112)
Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 1419 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 58

Defending force 1022 troops, 14 guns, 6 vehicles, Assault Value = 18

Japanese adjusted assault: 15

Allied adjusted defense: 22

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 1)

Combat modifiers
Defender: experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
79 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
34 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 3 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled

Assaulting units:
51st Naval Guard Unit


Defending units:
Johnston USN CPNAB
Johnston (Det.) Defense Battalion


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Johnston Island (164,112)

Allied Bombardment attack


Attacking force 548 troops, 14 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 15

Defending force 1360 troops, 12 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 51

Assaulting units:
Johnston USN CPNAB
Johnston (Det.) Defense Battalion

Defending units:
51st Naval Guard Unit

10) Landings begin at Laoag in the PI. My guess is this spreads out the port load. He seems to be coming all-in for the PI.

11) Japanese Shock Attack near Pengpu. I lose "only" 312 and 37 squads KIA. At 182 to 1 odds it could be worse.

12) Mama Said . . . .

Hong Kong falls.

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 458

Allied adjusted defense: 137

Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Hong Kong !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
450 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 17 disabled
Guns lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
5612 casualties reported
Squads: 240 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 465 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 25 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 188 (188 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 93 (93 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 6

Guam falls

Japanese adjusted assault: 46

Allied adjusted defense: 9

Japanese assault odds: 5 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Guam !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(-), preparation(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Guns lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
457 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 59 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 21 destroyed, 0 disabled
Vehicles lost 35 (35 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

(USS Penguin lives, continues her lonely way east.)

Assessment:

1) I understand all of his moves everywhere except Hawaii. I would not have forecast he would go radical there in a no-HR game. One thing I don't know is what his FOW shows about PH damage. Several of the BBs could fight today, and two are about two weeks at pierside from being safe enough to risk. I have my cruisers on Critical in the shipyard, which itself is at 88 and under repair. I would have expected a rapid move on Rangoon and a battle for NE India. Or something else. If Johnson I. is a bait operation, fine. If it's an opening move in a combined anti-Hawaii move I need to reassess NorPac reenforcments, as well as what I send to CT.

2) It will be interesting to see what he does about the threat to his oil fields, if it brings an acceleration in east Borneo, or perhaps even a deep assault on Palembang, or if he accepts the damage as Scen 2. permits him to.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/16/2012 4:42:45 PM >


_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 140
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/16/2012 4:44:20 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 17856
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
So, again, what was this attack? Mabels on naval attack he forgot about? A coincidence, with the KB en masse leaving the area? Bait for my two at-sea CVs, which I don't think he has a sighting on?


What makes you think this isn't a mini-KB derivative, tasked with supporting the Johnston landing? In addition to the 6 fleet CVs, he should have 2xCVE and 2xCVLs available to him for these efforts. The Mabels would be good candidates for CVEs particularly.

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(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 141
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/16/2012 5:00:56 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8320
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
So, again, what was this attack? Mabels on naval attack he forgot about? A coincidence, with the KB en masse leaving the area? Bait for my two at-sea CVs, which I don't think he has a sighting on?


What makes you think this isn't a mini-KB derivative, tasked with supporting the Johnston landing? In addition to the 6 fleet CVs, he should have 2xCVE and 2xCVLs available to him for these efforts. The Mabels would be good candidates for CVEs particularly.


Could be, but I know there's a mini-KB in the Celebes Sea, or maybe now at Legaspi or Babel. Don't the CVEs start in the HI too? Could they have gotten that far east by the 11th?

If he did this my hat's off to him, because there were Mabels in the 12/7 PH strikes and after as well. A nice bit of switcheroo if he put some Mabels on a KB CV AND on a CVE/CVL he hustled over for Johnson.

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The Moose

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 142
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/16/2012 5:15:06 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 17856
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
So, again, what was this attack? Mabels on naval attack he forgot about? A coincidence, with the KB en masse leaving the area? Bait for my two at-sea CVs, which I don't think he has a sighting on?


What makes you think this isn't a mini-KB derivative, tasked with supporting the Johnston landing? In addition to the 6 fleet CVs, he should have 2xCVE and 2xCVLs available to him for these efforts. The Mabels would be good candidates for CVEs particularly.


Could be, but I know there's a mini-KB in the Celebes Sea, or maybe now at Legaspi or Babel. Don't the CVEs start in the HI too? Could they have gotten that far east by the 11th?

If he did this my hat's off to him, because there were Mabels in the 12/7 PH strikes and after as well. A nice bit of switcheroo if he put some Mabels on a KB CV AND on a CVE/CVL he hustled over for Johnson.


One of the CVEs in scenario 2 starts off near Babeldoap, but don't know if it could have transited to Johnson within 4 days. That's a tight schedule and a long distance for a 25 knot ship.

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Post #: 143
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/17/2012 8:45:02 AM   
DOCUP


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Johnston Island is an observation post.  He can keep tabs on PH, fly nav search for his subs, and is an early warning for future offenses.  You have to take Johnston before you can use PH as a forward base.

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 144
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/17/2012 10:27:57 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8320
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

Johnston Island is an observation post.  He can keep tabs on PH, fly nav search for his subs, and is an early warning for future offenses.  You have to take Johnston before you can use PH as a forward base.


It's that if I don't go bombard it to dust after his carriers leave. By itself it's just a deathtrap for a naval guard unit and an SNLF unit. It has ot be part of something larger, unless it's not and it's just being done to make me focus on Hawaii.

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The Moose

(in reply to DOCUP)
Post #: 145
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/17/2012 10:31:04 PM   
DOCUP


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If he had fighters on the island he could defend it somewhat.  You would have a hard time sweeping it unless you used your carriers.  You could be right about him taking it to make you focus on Hawaii.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 146
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/17/2012 10:35:48 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8320
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

If he had fighters on the island he could defend it somewhat.  You would have a hard time sweeping it unless you used your carriers.  You could be right about him taking it to make you focus on Hawaii.


He would need to bring Bettys I think. I would still send BBs to bombard if he had fighters. That close to PH and the yards I'd risk it. And if he put Bettys there I'd invade it. The risk-cost ratio in VPs versus him sniping incoming Hawaii merchants would be on the side of a landing, even without carriers. It's not far from Pearl.

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The Moose

(in reply to DOCUP)
Post #: 147
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/17/2012 10:38:38 PM   
DOCUP


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You would have to take Johnston no matter what he did with the island.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 148
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/17/2012 10:45:59 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8320
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DOCUP

You would have to take Johnston no matter what he did with the island.


Well, not right now. If he just stands on it with infantry I can leave it alone. Eventually I would want the VPs back, but if he did nothing, including putting patrol planes there, I would ignore it. I don't think that's what will happen, but the question is how long can I leave it be while I attend to other things?

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 10/17/2012 10:46:56 PM >


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The Moose

(in reply to DOCUP)
Post #: 149
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 10/17/2012 10:50:42 PM   
DOCUP


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Oh yea forgot   Drive by.  Be a great place to train up ur bomber pilots and ship crews with bombardments.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 150
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