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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

 
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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/18/2013 3:04:46 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: V I Lenin


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Interesting data: the bolded (-) factors seen above for Japan. Especially supply.
This was a good day at this base, but worse is coming. The Chinese supply situation here is beyond terrible and can't be fixed now. Que sera sera.


Absolutely not true!

This is a point that does not seem to register with anyone - supply draw inside bases does not work the same as supply draw outside bases. Your army at Tsuyung are limited to a max supply volume (as indicated by number on base screen) modified by supply weight in two very important ways.

Imagining that Tsuyung can draw 900 supplies per 'tick' (for sake of argument) and trying to draw supplies from Mandalay (you gave up Rangoon, yes?)

900 x 0.55 [spoilage for 3 hexes minor rail + 8 hexes minor road is 45%] = 495 - this is your actual 'per tick' supply received at the base, though 900 will be lost from Mandalay to do it.

Then, your weekly supply received will be either 495 x 2 or 495 x 4 (I cannot remember where the cutoff point is between the supply movement process running 2 or 4 times a week - I think it is over 70 = 4 and under 70 = 2, but not certain; I do remember than under 30 no supply flows at all - this means that if you lose Prome Tsuyung cannot draw from Akyab, Ramree, India etc - it has to draw from intermediate bases, all of which have limits and so are likely to cause big problems). So you are operating on max 1000t per week INSIDE TSUYUNG BASE.

OUTSIDE the base it is totally different IF you have supplies available to send out. LCUs do not have supply limits!, and they also go further to get their supplies - as long as spoilage would be less than 100% they will draw. This means that units not in a base

- Can draw more supplies (as much as they need, but do it less often at long range - often only 1 time per week)
- Can draw supplies from further

So, as long as you have supplies to send out, you can support units. There is danger here that if they are peacefully in a hex and enemy suddenly arrives and starts bombarding, it may take them 6 or 7 days to replenish their supply (so risk of running out - but only for first time, since after that they will up their demand to include resisting bombardment/counterfire) - but that can be mitigated easily with reserve forces.

From hex northwest of Tsuyung you can (just, just - 98% spoilage) draw from Imphal - but Japanese have already made it into jungle mountains, so damage is done; there is nothing useful at Tsuyung, so sensible thing to do is to retreat to hex northeast of Paoshan (66,44); from there units can if nothing else draw from Imphal at 'only' 88% spoilage and also from Silchar, which is very easy to supply due to the railway. In Burma, if you have units that do not need to be in bases, take them out and turn supply stockpiling on! In the countryside they can do their own supply and bases can build up to support aircraft, AA guns.

I hope that is making sense to you - ask if not! Using this you can support armies in Burma - it is very inefficient with very, very high supply wastage, but it can be done. Obviously closer you get to India = less wastage.


First, thank you for your input and work doing the math. I did not re-do it, but it looks at least directionaly correct, and is probably totally correct.

Second, you bring up issues which are always at work in Burma, one of the most, if not the actual most, complex sub-theaters on the map. Burma has it all--rivers, mountains, railroads, jungle, big ports, unbuilt infrastrucure, critical dot bases. And six months in Burma can make a lot of difference in the option list available to each side. Then there's the monsoon.

Your point about LCUs being able to re-supply outside bases more effectively is well-known by veteran players, and seems counter-intuitive to some, but it's there and it's how things work. That said, it's only a worthwhile move if it fits into the rest of the tactical and strategic plan. In this case in this game it is not the best move at Tsuyung. One might think so given what I have revealed here, so let me expand.

1) The macro-strategy for Burma rests on the December decision to abandon China in order to shorten supply lines in order to re-build Chinese LCUs in order to allow some of them to help defend Burma and others to relieve garrison units of the Indian army for comabt in Burma and Indo-China. Secondarily, the movement out of China is designed to not throw away VPs on indefensible Chinese territory, but to fight when odds are favorable in the west, and to maximize VP hauls in part by using the 2:1 VPs-per-device-lost rule when Japan fights China. Thirdly, the Chinese evacuation is designed to buy time for the Allies to develp Burma's infrastructure and supply state, particularly in advance of the first, 1942 monsoon season.

2) To accomplish #1, a majority of Chinese LCUs have moved to the Mandalay group and are in those bases rather than the countryside in order to maximize replacement draws. Replacements are off for China everywhere else except for a select few LCUs at Chungking. To accomplish the draws in the Mandalay group supply is being force-fed into Chittagong from multiple sources. Thousands of points per week are landing. This is being pulled into the interior in bi-and tri-weekly draws. It is going to the Mandalay group as well as the coastal bases of Cox's B. and Akyab where significant combat power is being accumulatred for future operations south. On a daily basis Mandalay, which is also building its own Forts and AF and has supply spinners increased, is using every spare supply point which flows to it. So much so that Schwebo, just north, has not managed to go above 20 supply itself, despite needing to build infrastructure.

3) Imphal and the other bases to the north are contributing a bit. Imphal hovers near 6000 supply as it is also building infrastructure. Ledo is at about 21,000 and needs it as it will shortly begin much more intense air transport operations. In short, Burma does not have a lot of supply to send east and still accomplish its core strategies. It is March 1942 after all. I am facing Burma's issues far earlier than many Allied players do because of my China evacuaiton, which is "odd." But Burma itself must come first if the China evacuation is to mean anything.

4) Looking east, Lashio is set to draw to about 15,000, but has not gone over 11,000 due to Fort and AF building. Lashio has a very large garrison. Your points about external supply might have salience here; I will look at moving some LCUs out onto the road to the west to perhaps draw a bit from the Mandalay group. Mountains on all non-road hexes at Lashio (and Paoshan and Tsuyung for that matter) make moving LCUs to non-road hexes to try to draw supply infeasible. The time needed to move into and then out of mountains is extreme and does not allow tactical response to passing Japanese forces. Moving into the mountains can have longer term strategic benefits if the difficulty of movement is turned onto the Japanese and these "hovering" units in the mountains are used as a check on the passing Japanese lest they come down to sever supply lines after the Japanese pass by. But in short, at Lashio, no supply can be spared for the other two bases yet. It is the last bastion before Japan breaks free into Burma and needs to be the strongest base east of Mandalay.

5) Paoshan runs at 40 supply every day and has not varied in weeks. (See #4) Forts there are critically low at 1 + 57%. Supply which flows in above the 40 is enough for some daily build, however, as well as a bit of internal LCU supply build. Forts will not begin on 3 without more base supply though. By then Ledo may be able to help. Here too I will look at the utility of moving an LCU or two onto the road, but as you note distance=spoilage is extreme by the time you get to Paoshan so there might not be much gain when compared to the fatigue of moving and the loss of the integrated engineers in the corps formations, engineers building the forts needed so badly.

6) Which brings us to Tsuyung. You argue this base should be abandoned now with the defenders moving closer to Paoshan. I don't plan to do that, for the following reasons:

A) The base already has Forts 2 as well as an AF 2 I don't want Japan to have tomorrow. When supply is short Forts are your friend.

B) This base is a true speed-bump. Its function is to slow and bleed. To buy time for Paoshan and Lashio to build. On the bleed front, again, Japan has to kill two Chinese devices to every one of its own I have to kill in order to stay even. This was part of the reason I attacked the tanks last turn. Once the whole stack arrives it will attack. It may pause to recon and rest. (I know from combat results that at least some units in the stack are low on supply, and he is now drawing supply up a narrow, single corridor through mountians.) When it attacks it should take out the Forts, take the base, and cause the defenders to retreat. The retreat will give the Chinese a "free" jump into the next hex unless he has some attackers set to Reserve-Pursuit. If I were to order the attackers to walk out now they would be in motion when attacked, or, best case, on the road when he took the base without fatigue or disruption, and then caught them on the road in Move mode with his tanks and without any forts at all. I'd rather fight from cover if the fight is inevitable.

C) TO the NE I have two large, converging stacks on the yellow road through the mountains. Half of it has Local Forts 3. It includes the Red Army national HQ under Mao. It will stay in place to see if his Tsuyung stack continues west for Paoshan. If it does my stack will come into Tsuyung's hex and attack in an attempt to cut supply. If he splits his stack to come NW to address it, the Chinese will fall back, all the way to Chungling if necessary. Once he takes Tsuyung, which he will, his problems are just beginning, not ending. All of this will take time to sort as the monsoon season approaches and I build my air force and troop strength in Burma as well as move new transports into Ledo.

Long, but I hope this better outlines what I'm trying to do in that piece of the map.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/18/2013 3:14:56 PM >


_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to V I Lenin)
Post #: 961
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/18/2013 3:09:37 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 2620
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: V I Lenin


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
Interesting data: the bolded (-) factors seen above for Japan. Especially supply.
This was a good day at this base, but worse is coming. The Chinese supply situation here is beyond terrible and can't be fixed now. Que sera sera.


Absolutely not true!

This is a point that does not seem to register with anyone - supply draw inside bases does not work the same as supply draw outside bases. Your army at Tsuyung are limited to a max supply volume (as indicated by number on base screen) modified by supply weight in two very important ways.

Imagining that Tsuyung can draw 900 supplies per 'tick' (for sake of argument) and trying to draw supplies from Mandalay (you gave up Rangoon, yes?)

900 x 0.55 [spoilage for 3 hexes minor rail + 8 hexes minor road is 45%] = 495 - this is your actual 'per tick' supply received at the base, though 900 will be lost from Mandalay to do it.

Then, your weekly supply received will be either 495 x 2 or 495 x 4 (I cannot remember where the cutoff point is between the supply movement process running 2 or 4 times a week - I think it is over 70 = 4 and under 70 = 2, but not certain; I do remember than under 30 no supply flows at all - this means that if you lose Prome Tsuyung cannot draw from Akyab, Ramree, India etc - it has to draw from intermediate bases, all of which have limits and so are likely to cause big problems). So you are operating on max 1000t per week INSIDE TSUYUNG BASE.

OUTSIDE the base it is totally different IF you have supplies available to send out. LCUs do not have supply limits!, and they also go further to get their supplies - as long as spoilage would be less than 100% they will draw. This means that units not in a base

- Can draw more supplies (as much as they need, but do it less often at long range - often only 1 time per week)
- Can draw supplies from further

So, as long as you have supplies to send out, you can support units. There is danger here that if they are peacefully in a hex and enemy suddenly arrives and starts bombarding, it may take them 6 or 7 days to replenish their supply (so risk of running out - but only for first time, since after that they will up their demand to include resisting bombardment/counterfire) - but that can be mitigated easily with reserve forces.

From hex northwest of Tsuyung you can (just, just - 98% spoilage) draw from Imphal - but Japanese have already made it into jungle mountains, so damage is done; there is nothing useful at Tsuyung, so sensible thing to do is to retreat to hex northeast of Paoshan (66,44); from there units can if nothing else draw from Imphal at 'only' 88% spoilage and also from Silchar, which is very easy to supply due to the railway. In Burma, if you have units that do not need to be in bases, take them out and turn supply stockpiling on! In the countryside they can do their own supply and bases can build up to support aircraft, AA guns.

I hope that is making sense to you - ask if not! Using this you can support armies in Burma - it is very inefficient with very, very high supply wastage, but it can be done. Obviously closer you get to India = less wastage.


This has been the behaviors I have noted. There must have been a time where Burma/Northern Oz did not draw supplies. When I built up my army to attack Nortern Oz I recieved lots of advance that I would never supply an Army there, along with advice from a few others like Ksfgo that explained supply in the detail you have provided here. In the end, supplies moved from Alice Springs toward Darwin to supply troops not in a base hex. The supply came in waves and I would time attacks with the tide of supplies. Now, supplies took a lot longer to accumulate within the bases. The same in Burma! I was told that supplies would never move and my troops would starve. My forces took awhile to get supplies, but supplies moved and my troops were able to defeat the IJ in 1943.

Now clearly supplies moving into bases affects the game at a different level. I found it very difficult unitl forts/airfields are built up to get enough supplies into the Irrawaddy Valley to support/sustain air operations, take replacements, or repair industry. That is something to think about is having bases with sufficent supplies to keep planes in the air, troops taking replacements, drop tanks for the fighters and enough supplies to keep bombing ...

What I am trying to get a handle on is the supplies used each turn for movement. Is this a fixed amount per unit? each sqaud/vehicle pays a certain price? is this cost accounted by AV?

_____________________________

Patients and providers of healthcare win with interprofessional practice http://ipep.arizona.edu/blog

(in reply to V I Lenin)
Post #: 962
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/18/2013 4:29:54 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8606
Joined: 2/24/2009
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March 31, 1942

Out Like a Lamb

The Allies survived another one; April is going to be fun.

1) A lot of CAP moved to Singers, mostly Cobras. Put at 100 feet to counter the Oscars, some at 1000. They do come, but strike at sea on an incomiog merchant with supplies. The CAP scares off about 5, but they still sink xAK Sirsa. There are circa five more merchants coming, all at Full speed, by different courses.

Singers itself is not bombed, which is great news for the fort-builders. The Liberators bomb JB and find the Singers Sallys on the ground. Several are damaged, some AF damage.

Palembang has just enough CAP to show bait, and it gets a light treatment today.

2) Blenheims probe bomb Tavoy and find it empty. Elsewhere, four strong British units arrive at Aden and are dispatched to Chittagong by strat move. A new Indian division hits Madras and is set to build TOE, gets a new bad ass CO, and is prepped for Rangoon.

3) A gaggle of TFs are seen another day at Palmyra. Christmas I. Cats both search and recon. Lex and Sara come out of the San Diego yards tomorrow and will sail for Pearl once some escorts return. The Johnson and Palmyra assault forces are at Pearl resting and prepping.

4) The first trans-Pac Oz convoy of the war makes Sydney with a nice slug of fuel. The escorts are all APDs and will probably head for Palembang via Perth.

5) Jolo falls. Noemfoor dot base as well.

Like I said. A lamb.

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The Moose

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 963
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/18/2013 9:21:40 PM   
Alfred

 

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Always enjoy a discussion on logistics.

V I Lenin's post #960 is a good discussion point but it does have a few assumptions in it which make the post somewhat moot.

1. Bullwinkle's reply in post #961 is good, recapitulating earlier discussions. Originally the plan was to completely vacate the Chinese redoubt and I for one suggested that might be short sighted. In fact I would have made Japan fight for Kunming as well. The redoubt has value for more than just being a road bump. One should look at the schedule of reinforcements; one can never have too many support squads.

2. Reference made to long supply lines back to Ledo are meaningless for two basic reasons.

(a) Supply does not move in a single bound from Ledo to Tsyung. It moves in small steps to the next base down the line which in turn will export it along provided it has a sufficiently large surplus.

(b) There are better overland push off locations than Ledo which use the transportation network of the Irrawaddy Valley. The Allies still hold those transport hubs and in all likelihood will still hold them even when/if Japanese forces reach Paoshan. If those hubs are captured by Japan, it would be quite easy for Japan to then block any "theoretical" supply movement from Ledo in any case.

For the purpose of supplying the redoubt, Ledo is important as an air transport supply hub, not as an overland terrestrial supply hub.

3. LCUs out in the field do not draw more supplies, or as it was phrased do not have supply limits. LCUs never carry more than their needed +10 supply. Nor are such LCUs capable of going further to get their supplies. The position with LCUs is well known. LCUs at a base draw from the base's supply depot. LCUs outside can draw supply from any eligible supply source. In theory that suggests LCUs out in the field have an easier time but in practice it is not so simple. For any eligible supply source needs to itself have its requisite surplus and if it does it then would be in a position to just push the surplus supply down the road to the next base. It therefore becomes critical as to what has the better supply line, the next base or the LCU out in the field. As they say in real estate, position, position, position.

4. It is a balancing act as to whether it is better to have an LCU outside of the base with the intention of improving its chances of getting fed, or inside a base building forts or infrastructure. With regard to the redoubt, I would much rather have most of the LCUs inside the bases building forts than outside. Plus you only get the benefit of prepared objectives + HQ combat bonuses fighting in a base, not outside of one.

5. In any case Bullwinkle has recently indicated that something has caught his imagination. I have my suspicions as to what it is and if I am correct, the value of retaining the redoubt will be easier to see.

Alfred

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 964
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/19/2013 1:52:19 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Joined: 2/24/2009
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Thanks, Alfred.

To take my long post and put it next to your succinct one: Burma doesn't have base supply to spare to send east right now, to bases OR LCUs. Building infrastructure comes before supplying troops. The Chinese have to rely, for now, on their gross size per LCU and absolute numbers.

I do have some half-formed thoughts about what to do in Burma, but much of it depends on what happens at Singers and after. If that huge stack comes north plans will evolve differently than if it goes to Palembang, for example.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/19/2013 1:57:22 PM >


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The Moose

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Post #: 965
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/19/2013 11:29:45 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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While I wait for the April Fool's Day movie I want to announce the retirement, unused, of Operation CLUTCH CARGO and reserve for development Operation FUDD. Because, you know, Elmer always knows egg-zackwy what he's doing.

Enough hints?

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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 966
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/19/2013 11:42:24 PM   
Canoerebel


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Is that some kind of yolk?

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 967
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/20/2013 1:38:50 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Is that some kind of yolk?


Did I ova-play it?

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The Moose

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 968
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/20/2013 2:23:18 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8606
Joined: 2/24/2009
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April 1, 1942

"Toe-Joe Goes 'Round The Bend"

Spring was exactly 48-minutes old here in the Great White Nort. Six degrees F., not a light on in the lodge here in Frostbite Falls except the glow of my monitor. George Benson crooning from iTunes about his troubles "On Broadway." The movie email opened, the title above leading it. I could not do better than Mike today in a title selection. It was a Good Day for the Allies.

1) In Asia April Fools' Day dawned at besieged Singapore like so many others, with the prospect of stiff bombing raids, sweeps, and port attacks by low-flying rat bastids. But the Allied repair machine at Batavia and Oosthaven had performed heroic feats of maintenance and the first real, credible CAP of the war in the east was ready on the ramps. When the daily milk runs began the IJA pilots recieved a rude surprise. And they kept on coming all day.

The first raid came in before any sweeps. 43 Bettys and 9 Oscars. Normally fine. Today, not so much. Wave after wave of Aircobras and Warhawks rose to oppose. Many of the Cobras were set at either 100 or 1000 feet to meet low-bombing Oscars looking to cream the four large xAKs frantically unloading supplies in the port. But they struggled to altitude and gave fight.

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 39 NM, estimated altitude 15,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 43
Ki-43-Ia Oscar x 9

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 43
P-400 Airacobra x 21
P-40E Warhawk x 21


Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 12 destroyed, 11 damaged
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed by flak
Ki-43-Ia Oscar: 3 destroyed


Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 1 destroyed

Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 12

Particular credit was earned by pilots Grigsby and Rutins who each racked up multiple kills.
------------------------
Next, a sweep of Oscars and Nates. The Cobras paid for their designers' decisions. This was the worst of it for the Allies:

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 38 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 12
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 41

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 37
P-400 Airacobra x 16
P-40E Warhawk x 19

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 6 destroyed
P-400 Airacobra: 2 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 5 destroyed
------------------
Raids continued, unescorted. Three Sallys destroyed with no Allied losses. Three more Bettys the same. Then five more Sallys destroyed, with 2 damaged. Then 8 more Bettys damaged. The day at Singers ended there with very minor AF damage. About half of several unescorted raids turned back, else the carnage would have been worse. Best of all, the huge port at Singers vacuumed out several large supply ships without molestation, and the new 5 ML defense force in two TFs was left alone for a day when the CAP will be elsewhere. The Allies will evaluate where the unloading as well as incoming ships stand and decide whether to leave the CAP in place another day or decamp south. I expect tomorrow there will be huge sweeps at Singers.

2) ASW action in the Makassar Strait is unproductive for Japan, with the DDs running out of weapons. Sighting intel suggests carriers near the Strait, as well as at hex 50, 84 near Singers. If the latter is coming for supply ships it's already too late.

3) Small raids on Palembang (CAPed), Bataan. Nothing on Tsuyung today. Perhaps the stack is waiting for the two armor LCUs which retreated after the battle to rejoin in the base hex.

The Allies continue the Air Field World Tour by probe bombing/harrassing: Prome, Samarinda (1 Oil hit), Pontianak, Samarinda again (5 Oil hits), Rangoon (13 Oscar-b CAP), and Malacca. Accumulating evidence is that very few Japanese bases are CAPed. The concentrations at the big battles must be taking up the slack.

4) No ground attacks at Bataan, Singers, or Tsuyung. Instead, Japan lands a fragment of an SNLF and a fragment of an AF base force on dot base Nikunau, part of the gaggle of dots SW of Tarawa. It is taken by Shock attack by 473 total men with 8 guns. This is puzzling to me. I understand wanting to secure this flank, but Baker I. is several hexes away, already built, and empty. Canton I. has only the civilian construction corps stuck there since Dec. 7 and getting ready to withdraw. Makin is still not taken by Japan.

5) Carriers remain at Palmyra with at least one other unloading TF. Either these carriers have big brothers over the hill, or Japan is totally dissing the USN. But not yet. The time will come.

6) Block upgrades begin for the USN. CAs, DDS, SSes, minesweepers. The Navy tries to ration pier space, prioritizing DDs and a few subs. Radar sets are on the shelves in the warehouse at Pearl; the subs will soon recieve them along with their deadly gray paint jobs, retiring the pre-war red-lead-and-gray so easily seen in clear, shallow water. The upgrades do mean that naval ops around Pearl wil be reduced for part of April. But IMO this is the most important block upgrade of the war and must be done.

7) Operation FUDD needs a separate post. It is still under review by senior commanders. There is a lot of pre-work to be done.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/20/2013 2:37:46 PM >


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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 969
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/21/2013 6:44:23 AM   
Commander Cody


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In terms of saving shipyard space, you do know you can switch upgrading ships to "pierside," right?

And well-played CAP move at Sing.

Cheers,
CC

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Beer, because barley makes lousy bread.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 970
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/21/2013 1:05:38 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Commander Cody

In terms of saving shipyard space, you do know you can switch upgrading ships to "pierside," right?

And well-played CAP move at Sing.

Cheers,
CC


Yep. Only ship in the yards at Pearl is Big E. When she gets to a point I can work on system out she comes and in goes WVA by herself. Eight more float points and she's outta there for either Seattle or EC.

The CAP was a one-day thing, but I think (haven't gotten a turn in awhile it seems) a lot of supply got unloaded. Wish there were some troops included, but there are other jobs for them to do.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/21/2013 1:06:32 PM >


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The Moose

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Post #: 971
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/21/2013 3:24:20 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Yesterday's bill:






Attachment (1)

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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 972
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/21/2013 3:28:39 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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A question for those who know the Japanese OOB:

What is the 11th Air Fleet? What does it give the Japanese player? Just torpedoes and maintenance, or more?

Got intel it's heading to Kwajalein.

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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 973
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/21/2013 3:37:55 PM   
nashvillen


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From: Christiana, TN
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11th Air Fleet (with some game critical information redacted for opsec in my game):



< Message edited by nashvillen -- 3/21/2013 3:38:41 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/21/2013 3:40:26 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Thanks, Nashvillen. That's a hefty unit there. The command radius especially works for Kwajalein. And the AV support is not shabby either.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/21/2013 3:41:34 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Here's the payoff for the air circus over Singers yesterday. Whether it will ultimately matter time will tell. Also, note Forts are at 69%.






Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/21/2013 3:42:58 PM >


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The Moose

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/22/2013 8:26:36 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8606
Joined: 2/24/2009
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April 2, 1942

Furballs

OK, I lied. I said I was going to move the CAP out of Singers. Was that the biggest event today? Not even close.

1) Singers. My baby and Japan's brat. After yesterday's supply injection to about 24,000 a fleet of ships were still at the piers loaded with circa 29,000 more. That is a game changing amount of supply in April. With time it's Forts 5. And some very nice ships went out of their way to get it here. It needs to come ashore. So, despite figuring the whole knife drawer is coming, I leave the CAP and even send in another repaired unit from Batavia. That is a good thing.

The sweep comes, 35 Oscars and 12 Nates. A strong CAP rises to meet them, feeding in as the battle unfolds. The feed wears the Oscars down; the Nates are observers more or less. The Allied pilots are flying junk, mostly, but by now many of them have excellent stats.

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 18,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 11 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-27b Nate x 12
Ki-43-Ic Oscar x 35

Allied aircraft
P-38E Lightning x 1
P-39D Airacobra x 35
P-400 Airacobra x 11
P-40E Warhawk x 8

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ic Oscar: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-39D Airacobra: 3 destroyed
P-400 Airacobra: 1 destroyed
P-40E Warhawk: 2 destroyed

Japan doesn't lose a lot, although there are a good number of critical hits reported. More important is that the CAP isn't devastaed, and the Oscars don't low-bomb. After yesterday the Betty units have to be in low spirits and the raid shows it. They are met by CAP with a few ops points left.

Morning Air attack on Singapore , at 50,84

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid detected at 31 NM, estimated altitude 14,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
G4M1 Betty x 8
Ki-43-Ia Oscar x 9

Allied aircraft
P-39D Airacobra x 17
P-400 Airacobra x 3
P-40E Warhawk x 4

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 1 destroyed
Ki-43-Ia Oscar: 2 destroyed

No Allied losses

Then, with most of my flyable fighters in the region sitting on the ramp, and six good ships in port, Japan attacks. Again, it's not a Shock. I watched the entire replay; took almost 30 minutes. Massive amounts of artillery duel. The ground combat section shows the Aussies once again holding the fort, liteally. On the Japanese side it looks as if the 4th Division does not attack. I'm not aware of code which allows a random to do this if a deliberate is ordered, even if the attack is a disaster. Which means either it was ordered to not Attack, but to Defend, it was ordered to Bombard (unlikely, given how much pure arty is present), or it was on Reserve to shelter it for a follow-on tomorow or the next day. Given the results on Japan's engineers Im not sure this is going to be in play. We will see.

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 92331 troops, 1100 guns, 484 vehicles, Assault Value = 2898

Defending force 42943 troops, 576 guns, 369 vehicles, Assault Value = 1084

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 2459

Allied adjusted defense: 3631

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
8815 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 371 disabled
Non Combat: 3 destroyed, 92 disabled
Engineers: 100 destroyed, 95 disabled
Guns lost 53 (2 destroyed, 51 disabled)
Vehicles lost 20 (5 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1041 casualties reported
Squads: 48 destroyed, 110 disabled
Non Combat: 56 destroyed, 41 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 27 disabled
Guns lost 50 (5 destroyed, 45 disabled)
Vehicles lost 31 (4 destroyed, 27 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
23rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
Imperial Guards Division
12th Engineer Regiment
41st Infantry Regiment
16th Infantry Regiment
56th Recon Regiment
15th Ind. Engineer Regiment
113th Infantry Regiment
56th Engineer Regiment
24th Infantry Regiment
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
148th Infantry Regiment
56th Infantry Regiment
5th Division
4th Division
114th Infantry Regiment
55th Infantry Regiment
21st Division
2nd Tank Regiment
Karafuto Mixed Brigade
56th Field Artillery Regiment
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Mortar Battalion
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
5th Mortar Battalion
20th AA Regiment
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
25th Army
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
3rd Mortar Battalion
10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
18th Mountain Gun Regiment
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
1st RF Gun Battalion
34th Field AA Battalion

Defending units:
1st Mysore Battalion
2nd Malay Battalion
11th Indian Division
3rd Cavalry Regiment
27th Australian Brigade
2/17 Dogra Battalion
1st Manchester Battalion
22nd Australian Brigade
2nd Loyal Battalion
SSVF Brigade
1st Hyderabad Battalion
3rd SSVF Battalion
9th Indian Division
1st ISF Base Force
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
Singapore Base Force
3rd ISF Base Force
24th NZ Pioneer Coy
FMSV Brigade
1st Indian Heavy AA Regiment
III Indian Corps
Malayan Air Wing
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
111th RAF Base Force
112th RAF Base Force
Malaya Army
3rd Heavy AA Regiment
Singapore Fortress
3rd HK&S Light AA Regiment
110th RAF Base Force
109th RAF Base Force
1st HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
2nd ISF Base Force
109th RN Base Force

Given how close to Forts 4 the Allies were, and with supply taps wide open, I think Forts 3 can be re-attained in three days at most. This attack makes Forts 4 unlikely. The constant deterioration of the Allied AV is bad; the pools are flat even though supply is lavish. All supply can do is reduce fatigue quickly and perhaps pull in a bit of support and a few guns, which are in the pools.

So, this is yet another chapter in Singers' story, but not the last one, yet.

2) Palembang, which has become a backwater this week, has a very light CAP up. But they do excellent work in the single raid today. I have to wonder about the morale and fatigue status of the overall Betty force right now.

Morning Air attack on Palembang , at 48,91

Weather in hex: Heavy cloud

Raid spotted at 18 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 8
G4M1 Betty x 8

Allied aircraft
P-40E Warhawk x 9
P-39D Airacobra x 1

Japanese aircraft losses
G4M1 Betty: 5 destroyed

No Allied losses

3) Tsuyung gets two medium air attacks before the whole world lands on them. Eight full IDs, a mass of mixed arty, engineers. No tanks; they are still south trying to come up from their retreat. Perhpas they would have helped. Don't know. The Chinese managed to get two half-strength base forces in from the stack to the NE which helped I'm sure. I spent most of my meager stock of PPs changing out Chinese COs; everybody has somebody at least in the low-50s except one unit. I dumped Mao in Red Army HQ for a New Guy with much better figting and organizing stats; he was in command range to the NE. Supply in the base was about 40. Not 40k. 40. So I can't be displeased.

Ground combat at Tsuyung (68,46)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 103696 (!!!!!!!!!) troops, 1097 guns, 146 vehicles, Assault Value = 3720

Defending force 42651 troops, 234 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 1251

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 1

Japanese adjusted assault: 2559

Allied adjusted defense: 1180

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
3279 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 248 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 29 disabled
Engineers: 9 destroyed, 92 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1807 casualties reported
Squads: 22 destroyed, 359 disabled
Non Combat: 4 destroyed, 58 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 41 disabled
Guns lost 28 (2 destroyed, 26 disabled)

Assaulting units:
51st Engineer Regiment
13th Division
116th Division
3rd Division
40th Division
6th Division
39th Division
17th Division
35th Division

11th Army
4th Mortar Battalion
2nd RF Gun Battalion
1st Mortar Battalion
51st Road Const Co
15th Ind.Medium Field Artillery Regiment
52nd Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
51st Ind.Mtn.Gun Battalion
2nd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
52nd Road Const Co
8th Ind. Engineer Regiment
21st Mortar Battalion
2nd Ind. Engineer Regiment
22nd AA Regiment
14th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
5th RF Gun Battalion

Defending units:
19th Chinese Corps
9th Chinese Corps
23rd Chinese Corps
33rd Chinese Corps
26th Chinese Corps
9th Separate Brigade
96th Chinese Corps
6th Group Army
15th Chinese Base Force
NCAC
2nd War Area
12th Chinese Base Force
21st Chinese Base Force

Japan ought to take this base tomorrow, and should shock attack to level these defenders and cause a total surrender, or scraps to fall back. I don't know if they will. But Paoshan has a lot more defenders than this, and Lashio vastly more, plus supply. Japan may batter into Burma this way, but it will cost.

4) I-154 sinks xAK Testbank unloading the last 150 supply at Port Blair. Intel that subs are operating up here is valuable. Might be time for some mines in the Strait.

5) The Allies begin moving metal for Operation FUDD. A lot to position, a lot of prep, a lot of infrastructure to build. Events at Singers today may accelerate the timetable. To take away focus from necessary recon the Allies recon the stuffing out of the greater region as well as bomb disparate air fields at Victoria Point, Pontianak, Malacca, and Oil at Samarinda.

FUDD is not an op plan yet. Just a series of "wants." I'm pretty sure Phase 1 will happen regardless, but after that much depends on Japan's reaction.

6) Japan rests at Bataan. The Allies bombard again, trying to hold up a sheer curtain over the reality there is nothing behinid it. Keeping the Japanese stack here is necessary for Singers and Palembang.

Results at Bataan:

Japanese ground losses:
126 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 8 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 2 (1 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
135 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 7 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 5 (3 destroyed, 2 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

7) Nauru Island is taken by 43rd NAv Gd and 43rd JNAF AF Unit, further consolidating the space south of the Gilberts. Yesterday's dot base has a limit of 30,000 men, making it clearer to me why there and not Baker. Still, it's a dot base. Nauru is not.

8) Other tidbits.

-Lex is out of upgrade; Sara tomorrow.
-My thinking right now is to address Johnson before Palmyra. Johnson is a sub base which is bothering me, and I can LRCAP--a bit--from Pearl, with Palmyra it will be carriers. Palmyra will be some sort of air base by then, and has an unknown number of mines. Johynson has an ACM in residence, so there too.
-Bangkok goes to AF 6. Bothersome, but expected.
-Pt. Blair goes to AF 4.
-Allied AF at Meiktila goes to 4; Mandalay goes to 5. If I only had planes . . .
-Japanese recon goes blooie all over the map. Strong reon of Soerbaja, which could be interesting.

And so, the beat goes on . . .

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/22/2013 8:45:11 PM >


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The Moose

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Post #: 977
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/22/2013 11:13:10 PM   
witpqs


Posts: 14808
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
I don't recall ever seeing "forts (+)". I thought they just always added to AV based upon the fort level. I wonder if this implies that when you don't see the "forts (+)" that they are not helping?

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(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 978
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/23/2013 12:19:31 AM   
Crackaces


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Joined: 7/9/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I don't recall ever seeing "forts (+)". I thought they just always added to AV based upon the fort level. I wonder if this implies that when you don't see the "forts (+)" that they are not helping?


I am thinking the forts(+) is signgifying influencing the firepower die rolls / resolution

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(in reply to witpqs)
Post #: 979
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/23/2013 1:28:24 AM   
Bullwinkle58


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Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I don't recall ever seeing "forts (+)". I thought they just always added to AV based upon the fort level. I wonder if this implies that when you don't see the "forts (+)" that they are not helping?


Maybe it only applies to the Chinese?

Don't know that answer. I don't know if I've never seen it, but it sure is rare.

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The Moose

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Post #: 980
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/23/2013 10:32:18 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8606
Joined: 2/24/2009
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April 3, 1942

Main Body Sighted

Mike, showing what a great player he is, had a router meltdown a couple of days ago. While working with "tech support in India" he has been driving across town with his laptop to use a friend's wifi to get weekend turns out the door. Today I got both files at the same time, which may be a first for our game. So I'll be brief here, as the turn is burning a hole in my in-box.

Some heating up today; not sure what is up.

1) Almost all flyable CAP pulled from Singers. One unit of Cobras left, plus repairees. Cobras put at 1000 feet. Objective is to get the last ships unloaded. Most have left, putting base at 46,000 supply, but three remain at the pier. CAP is there to fight low-bombers. If there is a sweep they'll be meat on the table, but sweeps mean no low-bombing Oscars, so it's a wash. What comes are multiple sweeps. CAP takes about 2:1 losses. Not terrible considering. No hits on supply ships.

2) Palembang gets multiple sweeps and some bombing. Nothing too bad. Forts there are over 80% to 4; supplies a bit over 90,000.

3) Allies keep up the fast-dancing at Bataan, burning supplies from behind the walls. The bombardment results:

Japanese ground losses:
178 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 15 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
132 casualties reported
Squads: 1 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)

4) In the Himalayas and high foothills the Chinese stack on the roads in from the east grows. It is a very powerful stack once all arrive one hex NE of Tsuyung. In that besieged base, the base forces are ordered to Move mode to Paoshan. They are all at zero supply and can't help enough to justify liquidation. Paoshan needs the help. The combat LCUs are left behind Forts 1, very low on supply and fairly disrupted. Question of whether Japan will wait for the tanks to rejoin is answered. They rejoin, and Japan attacks. Once again it is a Deliberate. Once again it fails to take the city, and Japan suffers widespread disruption even though KIAs are low. Forts evaporate. Regardless, these two days are much more than Allied high command could have hoped for from a base with low forts and no supply. The remaining defenders begin to write letters to their future ressurected selves at Chungking.

Ground combat at Tsuyung (68,46)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 100932 troops, 1097 guns, 146 vehicles, Assault Value = 3488

Defending force 40316 troops, 231 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 988

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 0

Japanese adjusted assault: 461

Allied adjusted defense: 880

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 0)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), preparation(-), experience(-)
supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
2517 casualties reported
Squads: 2 destroyed, 230 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 25 disabled
Engineers: 58 destroyed, 32 disabled
Guns lost 26 (1 destroyed, 25 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
3781 casualties reported
Squads: 86 destroyed, 110 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 56 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 10 disabled
-----------------------

China also takes vacant Kienko, east of the northernmost China bastion city. Four armor units are used.

5) Allies probe bomb Mergui and find no planes. Oil bombing at Samarinda yields 1 Oil hit. 3 more are scored at Djambi.

6) More LCUs are detailed to FUDD and begin moving to embarkation ports. Intel shows a stiffening of Japanese land power on the Burma south coast, and a Royal Thai division in Rangoon now. This unit has not been seen in aerial recon.

7) At sea SW of Soerbaja, in the islands between Timor and Java, the "main body" radio alert is heard twice. IJN TFs containing at least two BBs, two CAs, and a CL are attacked by Beests and B-26s from Soerbaja, with no hits. This could be a raid, it could be a move on Timor or Darwin. Given the amount of recon and search I think Darwin is more likely. Japan may be looking for a psychological blow, and they should know there is no real Allied power on Timor. Air and sub responses will be mounted. Surface forces available are four cruisers at Townsville and Force Z, with medium fuel, just to the SW of the sightings.

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kangean at 59,106

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 6 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Allied aircraft
DB-7B x 3
B-339-23 x 2

Allied aircraft losses
DB-7B: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CL Naka

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kangean at 59,106

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 11 NM, estimated altitude 6,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 6 minutes

Allied aircraft
Vildebeest III x 6

Allied aircraft losses
Vildebeest III: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
BB Fuso

Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Kangean at 59,106

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid spotted at 5 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 1 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-26 Marauder x 5

Allied aircraft losses
B-26 Marauder: 2 damaged

Japanese Ships
CA Kinugasa
CA Aoba

8) USS Seawolf goes into the harbor at Nauru and torpedoes AMC Awata Maru, unloading. Three fish are duds. Decent chance this ship will sink.

9) Taung Gyi AF goes to 2. First Seabee unit begins long trip to SE Asia.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/23/2013 10:38:01 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/24/2013 8:59:34 AM   
Encircled


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Are you starting to think that you might be able to hang on in Palembang and Singapore?

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Post #: 982
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/24/2013 4:55:22 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

Are you starting to think that you might be able to hang on in Palembang and Singapore?


I've been "thinking" about that since the first turn. Believing it is another thing.

Niether place has enough combat power to hold if Japan wants it. My objective is to make it expensive and slow, and lowest cost to me. Palembang has additional issues with landing up-river and lack of BB access. Most players come in through Oosthaven. I've taken minimal steps to make that a bit more expensive and slow too.

But holding Palembang, which can certainly be done, would take investing more there, and I don't want a static defense with the British or Indian armies. The USA has other jobs to do elsewhere. My hope is that the large numbers of engineers at Palembang will succeed in wrecking the place when it falls, and that Japan will only have it 12-18 months before my modern 4Es are back in range.

I put the odds of Singers lasting to May 1 at about 30%. I expect he will move the engineers from the PI when Bataan goes, and that will be that.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/24/2013 4:56:49 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/24/2013 5:58:38 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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April 4, 1942

Main Body Runs Away Like A Little Girrrrrrl!!



A bit of an "arrrghh" day, and not in that pirate sense. Perfect ambush laid for boo-coo IJN heavies and they decline.

1) SE of Soerbaja the heavy BB TF is seen by multiple assets. Force Z ordered to sprint north to intercept in the day phase in the bight east of Soerbaja. The duty surface TF at Soerbaja is held locked and cocked to clean up, bt it never happens. Force Z is changed to homeport at Soerbaja to fully refuel and reload, and may pick up an extra cruiser or two. Her replenishment Tf was left south of Java and is making for Cocos.

The Soerbaja PTs do sortie, mostly in an attempt to eat ops points and main battery ammo. Yamishiro complies, using the big guns to obliterate one balsa wood soda cracker. Several Soerbaja air units also attack, including the Beests and Albacores brought in from Batavia, but there are no hits.

The BB TF heads east. Still don't know what this guy is for. No landing forces seen by air or sub assets. Maybe it is just a raid after all. Nothing on NG needs it for sure, and it's a long haul there and a circular route to take. So, stay tuned.

One xAKL coming out of Soerbaja with fuel is sunk by it in the midst of the PT action. To document the composition of the TF:

Japanese Ships
BB Kirishima
BB Fuso
BB Yamashiro
CA Mogami
CA Aoba
CA Kinugasa
CL Naka
DD Kawakaze
TB Sagi
DMS W-2

Allied Ships
xAKL Wollongbar, Shell hits 7, and is sunk

2) Singers forts go back up to 3. Yay.

3) Sixty Oscars sweep Singers and find open skies.

4) Probe bombing and small AF strikes continue all over the map in an attempt to hide the true info-gathering. I'm not very good at this aspect of PBEM. I want to know what 's up at Rangoon, Pegu, Prome, and Baselin. The rest are fluff.

5) In northern China the large stack NE of Tsuyung is seen and bombed. Perhaps Japan is seeing its strategic situation here now. The mountains are a bad place to bomb troops who have been there awhile. 27 Sallys and 16 Lilys do not kill or disrupt even one Chinese squad. This stack is still growing. In total it will be much larger than the defenders of Tsuyung.

That base falls to a Shock attack. All of the defenders retreat except one. The base forces and three corps at zero supply had a head start. The KIA figures are bad, but I console myself by halving the VPs due to the Chinese-Japan ratio rule, and by considering again what this base has cost Japan in disruption and supply draw. The total VP change for the day, all in, is 100 VPs exactly. These LCUs will move to Paoshan. The air bridge from Ledo will shift as well. 75 transport aircraft come into Aden either today or tomorrow. They will be at Ledo in a week.

Ground combat at Tsuyung (68,46)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 99257 troops, 1094 guns, 258 vehicles, Assault Value = 3334

Defending force 37821 troops, 230 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 742

Japanese adjusted assault: 2113

Allied adjusted defense: 832

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Tsuyung !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
1630 casualties reported
Squads: 3 destroyed, 180 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 31 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 22 disabled

Allied ground losses:
12356 casualties reported
Squads: 579 destroyed, 90 disabled
Non Combat: 291 destroyed, 42 disabled
Engineers: 67 destroyed, 2 disabled
Guns lost 91 (78 destroyed, 13 disabled)
Units retreated 12
Units destroyed 1

6) On the Chungking plain, Japan bombs Neikiang and then attacks with Yokosuka Assault SNLF /3. Clearly a probe attack. This base is there only to feed Resources to Chungking, and is not strongly held. The attack fails (gives info though) and the Japanese evaporate in attrition at the end of the turn.

Ground combat at Neikiang (75,44)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 175 troops, 4 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 14

Defending force 13978 troops, 108 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 439

Japanese adjusted assault: 0

Allied adjusted defense: 211

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 99 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: preparation(-), experience(-)
Attacker: shock(+), leaders(+), leaders(-)

Japanese ground losses:
206 casualties reported
Squads: 15 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 3 (2 destroyed, 1 disabled)

Assaulting units:
Yokosuka Assault SNLF /3

Defending units:
3rd Chinese Cavalry Corps
51st Chinese Corps
2nd Chinese Cavalry Corps
7th Construction Regiment
3rd Group Army
39th Group Army

Did Japan leave enough on the plain to deal with this? A couple of tank regiments won't get it done.

7) At Bataan the bombardments must be working. All air attacks target the AF rather than troops. All supply is organic to the LCUs and can't be hurt by hitting the AF. In Japan's defense, sometimes an AF strike does say X Supply is hit along with runways and AF proper even when the AF has no supply, perhaps a code decision which shold be included in FOW judgments. The Allies rest today here. No bombardment. The Bataan Rope-a-Dope continues.

8) Three USN CVs leave San Diego for Pearl with a storng escort and more in-coming DDs stripped from convoys to meet and merge. The icons at Palmyra still read as four CVEs and assorted others. If this is the KB it's showing as CVEs for four days now in recon from Christmas. If it's the MKB then it's not near Soerbaja waiting to pounce. Either way I still don't understand Palmyra.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/24/2013 6:06:51 PM >


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The Moose

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/25/2013 2:29:56 AM   
desicat

 

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What is going on at Christmas Island? Are you building up? Is he marshaling to evict you? What are your thoughts on the success of the operation?

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 985
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/25/2013 2:06:40 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: desicat

What is going on at Christmas Island? Are you building up? Is he marshaling to evict you? What are your thoughts on the success of the operation?


Christmas has about 40,000 supply. Forts are over 2; AF is 1 and building. The only planes there are the Cats, but a Wildcat unit is on the water coming from San Diego. LCUs are an infantry unit of medium-small size, an arty unit and a base force. If he wants it back he'll need more than an SNLF or a Naval Guard unit. I don't think he wants it back.

Right now its only function is to watch Palmyra.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/25/2013 3:21:00 PM >


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The Moose

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/27/2013 2:41:23 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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April 5, 1942

Back On-Line

Mike is back with new Net hardware and we're in business. A couple of days off has allowed me to read lots of AARs I have not been following, and to contemplate our game without needing to get 2nd Lt. Jones his teddy bear and therefore increase his morale at Palembang.

Stepping back, I think I can say that all of Japan's efforts around Hawaii since Dec. 7th have succeeded in throwing me off and giving them breathing room to develop the SE corner of the map from Tarawa to the new bases, dot and otherwise, being established on that vector. Atolls, once established, are no fun to take back. I don't send a lot of convoys that way, but even so having Bettys in that map area prevents the Allies from quickly responding to anything going on at Luganville or the Solomons. Despite an invasion of Hawaii not coming off I am still dinking around over Palmyra and Johnson in April, and I wish that were not the case.

1) Singers is swept three times, twice by Nates alone. I assume this is the coordination issue currently under discussion in the Tech sub-forum. No CAP is present, so it doesn't matter either way. Low-Oscars attack the MLs, the only vessels in port now, the supply ships having finished and left for Palembang. Light damage on one ML.

Japan Deliberate attacks Singapore, not waiting for full restoration of the combat engineers I think. Not sure Japan understands how fast Forts can be restored when previously they had been much of the way to Level 4. Regardless, once again Forts are knocked down to 2, but the attack fails. The Allies take big losses to KIA again. But they hold, and they are in good supply.

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 94326 troops, 1134 guns, 476 vehicles, Assault Value = 3015

Defending force 41886 troops, 575 guns, 367 vehicles, Assault Value = 1006

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 2274

Allied adjusted defense: 2289

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 2 (fort level 2)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
6739 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 416 disabled
Non Combat: 11 destroyed, 119 disabled
Engineers: 94 destroyed, 51 disabled
Guns lost 33 (8 destroyed, 25 disabled)
Vehicles lost 64 (12 destroyed, 52 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2518 casualties reported
Squads: 78 destroyed, 162 disabled
Non Combat: 17 destroyed, 93 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 49 disabled
Guns lost 91 (18 destroyed, 73 disabled)
Vehicles lost 28 (1 destroyed, 27 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

2) Air activity is thick in China. The stack NE of Tsuyung is bombed again by about 45 bombers, and once again suffers no effects. The retreating scraps from the battles of Tsuyung are road-bombed on their way to Paoshan, for 11 casualties. Neikiang, after the probe attack revealed the force there, is hit, doing a few points of supply damage.

Ledo's air supply op is shifted to Paoshan, where the LCUs will vacuum up incoming supply for quite awhile. 75 transports enter Aden and are loaded for Karachi. I will try to fly them to Ledo rather than train them over. This is the only big transport injection in the OOB for quite some time.

3) In Burma, the Chinese corps across the river from Prome is bombed in the open, incuring unacceptable casualties. There is an LCU in Prome now, but my recon still shows nothing in Rangoon. Intel, however, reported a Royal Thai division in Rangoon. The Prome guests might be them. I will ground bomb for a turn or two to try to get some firm intel. Another Chinese LCU is headed to the cross-river hex to backstop the single corps. I may cross the river unopposed to the SE and get on the road in the jungle. Operation FUDD is coming together, but I'm not ready to tip my hand.

4) Allies bombard at Bataan again. This tap-dancing is pretty sweet, given they're shooting bamboo shells by now.

Ground combat at Bataan (78,77)

Allied Bombardment attack

Attacking force 36392 troops, 748 guns, 311 vehicles, Assault Value = 1533

Defending force 45843 troops, 472 guns, 524 vehicles, Assault Value = 1297

Japanese ground losses:
81 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 4 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled
Vehicles lost 4 (1 destroyed, 3 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
65 casualties reported
Squads: 10 destroyed, 5 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)

5) Naval matters. The BB TF near Soerbaja last seen heaidng east. Force Z pulls into Soerbaja for some long-needed upkeep, but POW is not put on upgrade, even though the January is much needed for AA reasons. Soerbaja has a CAP of over 75 good fighters, so I think, I hope, I can afford a few days of repairs here.

Half of the US Navy is upgrading at Pearl and San Diego. The ASW upgrades here are really needed. The 3-CV TF coming to Pearl links up with extra DDs and proceeds.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/27/2013 2:58:30 PM >


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The Moose

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/27/2013 2:47:50 PM   
Alfred

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


... 4) Allies bombard at Bataan again. This tap-dancing is pretty sweet, given they're shooting bamboo shells by now...



Heh, bamboo splinters are quite nasty.

Alfred

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 988
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/27/2013 2:53:12 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


... 4) Allies bombard at Bataan again. This tap-dancing is pretty sweet, given they're shooting bamboo shells by now...



Heh, bamboo splinters are quite nasty.

Alfred


Very true. Pretty soon the guys in Bataan are going to be just heaving them across the lines. Not a lot of velocity there.

On another topic, last night I watched the Singapore Falls episode of the classic "World at War" documentary series. Put the game's compromises with fortifications into better perspective for me. And the visuals of the POWs being forced to line the parade route after the surrender was painful to see. I knew the numbers were huge, but I had not known that Singapore was the largest surrender in the history of Great Britain. Perceval was presented as a fumbler who even at the surrender conference didn't understand the gravity of his failures. Not sure that's fair given how little of the promised support he recieved, but he was in charge and so gets much of the blame. The documentary was made in the mid-70s too. A lot of scholarship since then.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 3/27/2013 3:07:17 PM >


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The Moose

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Post #: 989
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 3/27/2013 3:25:26 PM   
Alfred

 

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Ah, in that case, rather than throwing them over the parapets with low velocity, recommend you embed upright slivers of bamboo into the ground so that the IJA steps on them when it crosses no mans land.

Alfred

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