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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

 
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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 3:59:19 AM   
crsutton


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One point about China. Given the possible Japanese onslaught I think the Allies should always defends with an eye towards evacuating towards the west and blocking the Japanese route to Burma. It was my experience that eventually supply becomes such an issue that holding the North and Central China is not feasible vs a good Japanese player. And, once the major industrial cities are captured the supply situation gets so poor that Chinese units will not take replacements.

Make him fight hard and don't worry about sacrificing armies. You can never rebuilt them all anyways. But eventually move your armies to the mountains to the West. Shattered Chinese units can make the long march to India where they can rebuild. If you are strong enough in your mountain redoubt you can hold on until the Indian army can punch the Ledo road open and clear out Northern Burma. And they do not have to take Rangoon for decent supply to flow into China. You have no hope of flying enough supply to the Chinese plain, but can keep your redoubt alive by air supply from India.

By the way, the only reason for the Allies to waste a single soldier in Burma is to eventually get a chance to resupply China. If China is lost, Burma has no strategic value to the Allies at all. It is not a great place for Japan to be and can easily be outflanked by the Allies once they get the sealift capacity. Just flank em....

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 6:02:52 AM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: desicat

I'm still going to predict Enewetok. Mostly because someone suffering through the MN Winter would want to snuggle up close to a place like Bikini Atoll! (Before the nuclear nightlight of course)


Eniwetok got the same glow-in-the-dark treatment!

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 1:17:26 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
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quote:

ORIGINAL: desicat

I'm still going to predict Enewetok. Mostly because someone suffering through the MN Winter would want to snuggle up close to a place like Bikini Atoll! (Before the nuclear nightlight of course)


No, not Eniwetok. It's going to UNDERwhelm you.

Although I am begining to consider my 1943 program. I'm tired of all this AAR thrashing about in the DEI. Hint.

FWIW, I like the MN winter. I lived in Hawaii for several years and I find that kind of climate boring. The winter here is never boring. Alberta Clipper coming through tonight; two inches forecast. Enough to freshen up the snow doots. (Local slang. AKA snurds.)

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 1:39:52 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

One point about China. Given the possible Japanese onslaught I think the Allies should always defends with an eye towards evacuating towards the west and blocking the Japanese route to Burma. It was my experience that eventually supply becomes such an issue that holding the North and Central China is not feasible vs a good Japanese player. And, once the major industrial cities are captured the supply situation gets so poor that Chinese units will not take replacements.

Make him fight hard and don't worry about sacrificing armies. You can never rebuilt them all anyways. But eventually move your armies to the mountains to the West. Shattered Chinese units can make the long march to India where they can rebuild. If you are strong enough in your mountain redoubt you can hold on until the Indian army can punch the Ledo road open and clear out Northern Burma. And they do not have to take Rangoon for decent supply to flow into China. You have no hope of flying enough supply to the Chinese plain, but can keep your redoubt alive by air supply from India.

By the way, the only reason for the Allies to waste a single soldier in Burma is to eventually get a chance to resupply China. If China is lost, Burma has no strategic value to the Allies at all. It is not a great place for Japan to be and can easily be outflanked by the Allies once they get the sealift capacity. Just flank em....


I partly disagree with you, partly agree.

I have modified my original China bug-out plan where I wasn't even going to defend Lashio. I want him strung out across China, and I want him to have to garrison. That's in part how he loses a little of the advantage he gets by not having to pay PPs to cross borders. Taking China gives him a fair bit on Manpower and Resources, but almost no Oil or Fuel. My overall national, strategic goal is to starve him of POL. Even though it's Scen 2 eventualy this will bite. So far he has been pretty lavish with the fuel, operating near PH for months.

I've never defended Chungking. I have a lot of force there, am on the way to Forts 8, but supplies are too low. If I lose it too early the replacements elsewhere stop and the bug-out largely loses its punch. OTOH, so far his land habits show a very methodical, low-risk mindset, and Chungking as presently set-up would need some pretty aggressive action to take down.

Lanchow, the main Chinese fuel source, is almost at Forts 4 and has 1100 AV plus two base forces and an HQ. The only nearby LCUs are the tanks which got pounded trying to take it. He is also in Urmachi's hex way to the north, but has not attacked. My read from other AARs is that this fuel never flows to the coast, or very little of it.

Timing will be important on an air bridge. If he gives me time I'm prepared to throw max effort at Ledo. So far I think I'll have that time. I've never had to really fight for Chungking against the AI. Whatever hapens there it'll be an education.

Where I somewhat disagree with you is Burma. Burma has three advantages in my game, some of which might not normally apply. 1) It has oil, and he needs it. He's far, far behind the normal curve with the Allies still holding Palembang and Soerbaja. Rangoon's' refineries are idle. 2) It has hordes of Chinese who are normally fighting around Changsha in most games right now. They are half-TOE, but they are numerous and half cuts supply routes and takes hex sides as well as full-TOE. If he brings the Singers stack up there to take Mandalay it'll by then be in monsoon months, and it will be a constant dance of maneuver, with rivers playing a big role. 3) Having a big force in Burma makes a thrust into Indo-China always something he has to guard against. Once the Viet militia divisions are off the table on 1/1/43 a thrust to cut the Magic Highway at Haiphong (say) helps the Allies a lot if they are aggressive with subs. And I will be. Mike has already told me that my subs are like nothing he's ever faced in previous games.

Your point about using sealift to bypass is a very good one. I think too many players ignore the Allies' huge advantage in sealift in later 1943 and 1944 in this theater, focusing too much on the DEI. The IJN has trouble operating at that strategic depth (near Rangoon) by then if their logistics are at Singers and their fleet has to pass choke points. I have Inchon "in my family", so landing behind is something I do look at.

But first I have to get past the next year.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 2/13/2013 1:53:35 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 1:41:20 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Starting work on the turn, but wanted to post an air loss status. Shows that the saturation bombing of Singers and Palembang is costing him multi-engine bombers.






Attachment (1)

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 2:25:02 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 2587
Joined: 7/9/2011
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quote:

By the way, the only reason for the Allies to waste a single soldier in Burma is to eventually get a chance to resupply China. If China is lost, Burma has no strategic value to the Allies at all. It is not a great place for Japan to be and can easily be outflanked by the Allies once they get the sealift capacity. Just flank em....


I have to disagree with the statement that Burma offers no value and it has to be outflanked by sea. The open hexes in the Irrawaddy Valley and eventually Thailand are a real threat to the IJ. Although I have only 2 PBEM games, in both games once I got Allied armor loose in the Irrawaddy Valley supported by LBA, and it was katy bar the door. Once I got armor supported by airpower and paratroops in the plains of Thailand -- it was game over. In my last affair the Commonwealth are crossing the Yangzee river at multiple points.

Why is this such a vulnerability for the IJ? From my point of view, besides the tatical firepower advantages of Allied armored units and using airpower against units in open terrain, the Burmese rough/ jungle within a closed road network offers the unique problem of the defender trying to move units within an LOC that the Allies are free to interdict at will. Bombing a unit on a rough jungle hex does not produce much casualties, and the temptation is to mass airpower to try and disable as many sqauds as possible at some vulnerable point. [In fact both opponents pointed out that my bombing efforts were futiile ] I simply adopted a strategy of attacking as many units as possible knowing that the combat results will be negligible, but these units with little arrows on them will change operations mode from move to combat mode, and this halves their movement. Have one force at rate 'X' and another force at 1/2 'X' and a battle of maneuver errupts over time. Have the IJ not notice this and if they do not keep up with the details then units become 'mysteriously' pinned. Pin the right units down and the IJ become trapped. Pick a weak spot to begin the campaign and very insidiously the trap unfolds.

In my limited experience trying to outflank Burma by sea in 1943 has only lead my efforts into the IJ's greatest strength in 1943 -- Surface combat platforms attacking vulnerable sea bases. A pure land campaign feeds into the Allies greatest strength in 1943 -- 4E's and an advantage in armor firepower .. It does take a comittment. I think you were the one that told me to move SeaBees to India , and I think American Divisions and extra armored units are required also. At least 3 divisions and 3 - 4 of those armored units from Southwest Pacfic ..

That strategy although applies if no home rules somehow prohibit maneuver in Burma to recreate some "historical" constraint. A game like the Moose where Burma can be fought during the Monsoon really adds to the Allies advantage.

My .02 ...


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 2:47:47 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Very good food for thought. Whether I will send 3-6 US divisions into India/Burma . . . Don't know about that.

In my AI games the AI puts huge amounts of air power into Burma. 150 Oscar sweeps day after day. So I've never been able to do a lot with 4E there in the first half of 1943. Maybe this will be different.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 2:56:58 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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I'm in mid-turn prep, but I wanted to post one more screen shot showing the sub situaiton around Balikpapan. The Surface TF on the far lower left is Force Z, about to take on fuel from the Perth replenishment group. So far nothing is in sight which would make me commit Z and reveal them.

Also, an aside, UNDERDOG has been altered. For one, there IS no Follow=5; 3 is the max. Yorktown's Wildcats are on 30% LRCAP of the transports. I ordered the landing force to stand off to the east and wait once it arrives in the vicinity. There are three APDs with troops in the landing TF. I may split one off as a probe and send it in to land, and see if there are carriers about.

I also ordered six subs, either already on patrol or at Pearl, into mutually-reinforcing patrol zones covering 200 degrees of the approaches to the landing site out to 15 hexes. It will take several days for them all to arrive on station.

And, perhaps most importantly, I found some RAAF Catalinas in NE Oz I could spare, bought them out, and sent them toward Canton I., staging through Suva. They will arrive tomorrow. Canton just has the initial little base force, but I slipped in 2500 supply a month ago, and the force has about 25 aviation support. It's only three Cats, but it will give me eyes to the north, which is gold right now.






Attachment (1)

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 4:25:43 PM   
Alfred

 

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Joined: 9/28/2006
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The last two days have given very strong hits as to what is UNDERDOG's objective.

It is the recapture of Palmyra Island.

(a) not far from Allied power, out on a limb from Japnaese power

(b) reduces basically to zero the possibility of a Japanese move on Hawaii, and in the process demonstrates that Japan merely wasted a lot of fuel and airplanes in the first two months of the war by hanging around Hawaii

(c) shortens the Allied SLOC to the South Pacific

A move on Eniwetok at this stage of the war is very bad and pointless.

Alfred

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Post #: 849
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 5:31:24 PM   
Crackaces


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Joined: 7/9/2011
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quote:

Very good food for thought. Whether I will send 3-6 US divisions into India/Burma . . . Don't know about that..


Well to each his own ... But if the IJ ignores Burma I just make the case that this kind of investment has shown that the game can be won begining with a focus on a Burma Campaign, rather than Burma being "non-strategic in value".

There is one good reason I can think of .. it turns the game to depend on the game's weakest component -- the land warfare module, and deemphasizes the games strength -- Naval warfare. However, I reason that this strategy is a deterrent for the IJ player that overemphasizes other theaters or otherwise does not set a defensive line .. investing forces here can lead feasibly to instant Allied Autovictory. Of course like the doomsday bomb in Dr Strangelove . your opponent has to know of this capability and consequinces

BTW) You cite 150 Oscars or so sweeping etc .. clearly a Burmise campaign requires a concernted effort like building up Kaylemyo .. etc .. etc yadd yadda yadda .. but again my point is that Burma can be a strategic theater and lead to Allied auto-victory ..

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 5:46:06 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

The last two days have given very strong hits as to what is UNDERDOG's objective.

It is the recapture of Palmyra Island.

"Missed it by THAT much, Chief."

(a) not far from Allied power, out on a limb from Japnaese power

(b) reduces basically to zero the possibility of a Japanese move on Hawaii, and in the process demonstrates that Japan merely wasted a lot of fuel and airplanes in the first two months of the war by hanging around Hawaii

(c) shortens the Allied SLOC to the South Pacific

It's Christmas Island. B and C nearly as true. A is much less so. Palmyra is in the way for help from Pearl, and it's pretty far PH--Christmas. The driver was that old bugaboo, prep points. I had started prepping for Christmas as soon as it fell. I have a couple of LCUs for Palmyra farther back in the cycle, primarily a Marine Raider unit. Christmas being farther south is more of a KB hang-out for Japan too, so it somewhat balances. My hope was and is I could get a good smack on Palmyra as the carriers leave.

If the KB does show up near Christmas I have an idea somebody gave me long ago to stash the landing force at Port Stanley rather than steam all the way back to San Diego. Lets them come out again from an unexpected vector and without pesky subs radioing back to Papa.



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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 5:52:13 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

quote:

Very good food for thought. Whether I will send 3-6 US divisions into India/Burma . . . Don't know about that..


Well to each his own ... But if the IJ ignores Burma I just make the case that this kind of investment has shown that the game can be won begining with a focus on a Burma Campaign, rather than Burma being "non-strategic in value".

There is one good reason I can think of .. it turns the game to depend on the game's weakest component -- the land warfare module, and deemphasizes the games strength -- Naval warfare. However, I reason that this strategy is a deterrent for the IJ player that overemphasizes other theaters or otherwise does not set a defensive line .. investing forces here can lead feasibly to instant Allied Autovictory. Of course like the doomsday bomb in Dr Strangelove . your opponent has to know of this capability and consequinces

BTW) You cite 150 Oscars or so sweeping etc .. clearly a Burmise campaign requires a concernted effort like building up Kaylemyo .. etc .. etc yadd yadda yadda .. but again my point is that Burma can be a strategic theater and lead to Allied auto-victory ..


To me Burma makes the game's land model warts stand out and never stop standing out. So much jungle, so many rivers. I know some peole groove on that, but I just put up with it. I likes my ships!

Burma can certianly be decisive, no question. Indo-China is in many ways the Great Unexplored Theater in most AARs. Japanese players don't often have to deal with the early 1944 loss of both Saigon and CRB in terms of homeward bound convoys.

But my heart lies elsewhere . . .

Re the AI sweeps, the issue playing it isn't so much base build up, it's fighter pools. The sweeps are so huge and so persistent that trying to fight them keeps the RAF pools flat for months. Single digit CAP against 150+ front-line fighters, and bombers behind. Andy REALLY paid attention to the Burma theater in the scripts. I think from his comments here over the years it's an area with a lot of personal interest for him. The air war there shows it.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 2/13/2013 5:54:04 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 7:17:58 PM   
crsutton


Posts: 6833
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

quote:

By the way, the only reason for the Allies to waste a single soldier in Burma is to eventually get a chance to resupply China. If China is lost, Burma has no strategic value to the Allies at all. It is not a great place for Japan to be and can easily be outflanked by the Allies once they get the sealift capacity. Just flank em....


I have to disagree with the statement that Burma offers no value and it has to be outflanked by sea. The open hexes in the Irrawaddy Valley and eventually Thailand are a real threat to the IJ. Although I have only 2 PBEM games, in both games once I got Allied armor loose in the Irrawaddy Valley supported by LBA, and it was katy bar the door. Once I got armor supported by airpower and paratroops in the plains of Thailand -- it was game over. In my last affair the Commonwealth are crossing the Yangzee river at multiple points.

Why is this such a vulnerability for the IJ? From my point of view, besides the tatical firepower advantages of Allied armored units and using airpower against units in open terrain, the Burmese rough/ jungle within a closed road network offers the unique problem of the defender trying to move units within an LOC that the Allies are free to interdict at will. Bombing a unit on a rough jungle hex does not produce much casualties, and the temptation is to mass airpower to try and disable as many sqauds as possible at some vulnerable point. [In fact both opponents pointed out that my bombing efforts were futiile ] I simply adopted a strategy of attacking as many units as possible knowing that the combat results will be negligible, but these units with little arrows on them will change operations mode from move to combat mode, and this halves their movement. Have one force at rate 'X' and another force at 1/2 'X' and a battle of maneuver errupts over time. Have the IJ not notice this and if they do not keep up with the details then units become 'mysteriously' pinned. Pin the right units down and the IJ become trapped. Pick a weak spot to begin the campaign and very insidiously the trap unfolds.

In my limited experience trying to outflank Burma by sea in 1943 has only lead my efforts into the IJ's greatest strength in 1943 -- Surface combat platforms attacking vulnerable sea bases. A pure land campaign feeds into the Allies greatest strength in 1943 -- 4E's and an advantage in armor firepower .. It does take a comittment. I think you were the one that told me to move SeaBees to India , and I think American Divisions and extra armored units are required also. At least 3 divisions and 3 - 4 of those armored units from Southwest Pacfic ..

That strategy although applies if no home rules somehow prohibit maneuver in Burma to recreate some "historical" constraint. A game like the Moose where Burma can be fought during the Monsoon really adds to the Allies advantage.

My .02 ...



I think you missed my point a bit. There are much better targets to hit in 1943. Sabang and Siboret Island come to mind. A foothold in Java will close the Indian Ocean to Japanese ships and directly threaten Japanese oil supply. Holding Sabang a level 9 airbase,will force a fight of attrition which is what the Allies should seek in 1943. Perhaps later 43 for scenario 2. Win the fight and the Japanese position in Burma becomes untenable due to supply starvation. My experience was that my personal fight over Java forced my opponent to pull the Japanese fleet from the Pacific which proved to be an added bonus. If he is foolish enough to stay in Burma then a follow up invasion of Pegu or Moulmein will doom any Japanese force in Rangoon or further North. Yes, you can slog it out in Burma and kill a lot of Japanese troops but that is the one thing the Japanese have in spades and can afford to lose. He can't afford to lose oil though. Any campaign that is not focused on threatening Japanese oil has little strategic value in my view.

Call it the Canoerebel school of thought. The Allies should preserve their fleet and sealift capacity until mid 43 and then find a place that is vital to Japan and stick their foot right into the middle of it. This takes the strategic initiative away from the Japanese player. If you win the fight-and you should. Then he will never regain that initiative.

Simply put Burma does not allow you any opportunity to seize the strategic initiative. The only real asset in Burma is the oil in Magawbe but that is easily bombed out from India.

I fought for Burma because I had a viable Chinese force in Western China to support, but if China had been lost to me I would have just sent more force to Java where the real campaign was and not given Burma a second thought. I should say that I brought my entire fleet to the party in Java. It was a dogfight.


_____________________________

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Sigismund of Luxemburg

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 853
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 7:38:34 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 2587
Joined: 7/9/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

quote:

By the way, the only reason for the Allies to waste a single soldier in Burma is to eventually get a chance to resupply China. If China is lost, Burma has no strategic value to the Allies at all. It is not a great place for Japan to be and can easily be outflanked by the Allies once they get the sealift capacity. Just flank em....


I have to disagree with the statement that Burma offers no value and it has to be outflanked by sea. The open hexes in the Irrawaddy Valley and eventually Thailand are a real threat to the IJ. Although I have only 2 PBEM games, in both games once I got Allied armor loose in the Irrawaddy Valley supported by LBA, and it was katy bar the door. Once I got armor supported by airpower and paratroops in the plains of Thailand -- it was game over. In my last affair the Commonwealth are crossing the Yangzee river at multiple points.

Why is this such a vulnerability for the IJ? From my point of view, besides the tatical firepower advantages of Allied armored units and using airpower against units in open terrain, the Burmese rough/ jungle within a closed road network offers the unique problem of the defender trying to move units within an LOC that the Allies are free to interdict at will. Bombing a unit on a rough jungle hex does not produce much casualties, and the temptation is to mass airpower to try and disable as many sqauds as possible at some vulnerable point. [In fact both opponents pointed out that my bombing efforts were futiile ] I simply adopted a strategy of attacking as many units as possible knowing that the combat results will be negligible, but these units with little arrows on them will change operations mode from move to combat mode, and this halves their movement. Have one force at rate 'X' and another force at 1/2 'X' and a battle of maneuver errupts over time. Have the IJ not notice this and if they do not keep up with the details then units become 'mysteriously' pinned. Pin the right units down and the IJ become trapped. Pick a weak spot to begin the campaign and very insidiously the trap unfolds.

In my limited experience trying to outflank Burma by sea in 1943 has only lead my efforts into the IJ's greatest strength in 1943 -- Surface combat platforms attacking vulnerable sea bases. A pure land campaign feeds into the Allies greatest strength in 1943 -- 4E's and an advantage in armor firepower .. It does take a comittment. I think you were the one that told me to move SeaBees to India , and I think American Divisions and extra armored units are required also. At least 3 divisions and 3 - 4 of those armored units from Southwest Pacfic ..

That strategy although applies if no home rules somehow prohibit maneuver in Burma to recreate some "historical" constraint. A game like the Moose where Burma can be fought during the Monsoon really adds to the Allies advantage.

My .02 ...



I think you missed my point a bit. There are much better targets to hit in 1943. Sabang and Siboret Island come to mind. A foothold in Java will close the Indian Ocean to Japanese ships and directly threaten Japanese oil supply. Holding Sabang a level 9 airbase,will force a fight of attrition which is what the Allies should seek in 1943. Perhaps later 43 for scenario 2. Win the fight and the Japanese position in Burma becomes untenable due to supply starvation. My experience was that my personal fight over Java forced my opponent to pull the Japanese fleet from the Pacific which proved to be an added bonus. If he is foolish enough to stay in Burma then a follow up invasion of Pegu or Moulmein will doom any Japanese force in Rangoon or further North. Yes, you can slog it out in Burma and kill a lot of Japanese troops but that is the one thing the Japanese have in spades and can afford to lose. He can't afford to lose oil though. Any campaign that is not focused on threatening Japanese oil has little strategic value in my view.

Call it the Canoerebel school of thought. The Allies should preserve their fleet and sealift capacity until mid 43 and then find a place that is vital to Japan and stick their foot right into the middle of it. This takes the strategic initiative away from the Japanese player. If you win the fight-and you should. Then he will never regain that initiative.

Simply put Burma does not allow you any opportunity to seize the strategic initiative. The only real asset in Burma is the oil in Magawbe but that is easily bombed out from India.

I fought for Burma because I had a viable Chinese force in Western China to support, but if China had been lost to me I would have just sent more force to Java where the real campaign was and not given Burma a second thought. I should say that I brought my entire fleet to the party in Java. It was a dogfight.



I think you might have missed my point I am opting for the indirect threat to the oil/fuel ....

A picture below. Starting with Burma in 1942 and investing US/Aussie forces here ...Once I grabbed Saigon in '43 the whole DEI became a huge problem for the IJ. That assault continued until I grabbed Hong Kong and Canton. In the meantime USN/USMC forces worked to cutoff PI at Davao and Palawin .. Now I interdict all shipping headed into or out of the the DEI. Those oil wells can produce as much as they desire .. none of it is getting to the home islands ..




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Post #: 854
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 8:47:29 PM   
crsutton


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Excellent position and an Allied fanboy's dream. But this is not going to happen vs a competent Japanese player in 1943 and I doubt 44 in an scenario #2 situation.

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(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 855
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/13/2013 11:03:38 PM   
Crackaces


Posts: 2587
Joined: 7/9/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton

Excellent position and an Allied fanboy's dream. But this is not going to happen vs a competent Japanese player in 1943 and I doubt 44 in an scenario #2 situation.


I cannot judge my opponents competency, and yes this is scenaraio #1 not #2. However, the statement was that Burma is not strategic, and I simply posted a picture of the potential. BTW) N=2 ... I posted a picture very early on in teh War room thread of just how rapid the situaiton in Burma can deterorate especally mid 43 if the IJ do not defend at the India border. I do know that everybody thought a Northern Kules advance was impossible against a competent opponent until Greyjoy showed us how

BTW) My opponent did what many IJFB's do .. defend the Irrawaddy Valley and spearhead notth toward China mid 42 ...rather than form a defensive line on the India border. While the IJ were busy raiding and invading NG & Oz ... I invested resources into India/Burma in terms of SeaBees and units. He overstacked a formation trying to attack Taung Gvi and I tied up them uip with with Chineese and 4E bombing that prevented units from catching up to the Aussies to the south The Aussies eventually took Toungoo ... He committed the Thai's that got caught again and frozen in place while the Armored units proceeded to occupy LOC's. That left Ubon open as an example and a paratroop in .. start strategic reployment at railroad rates and soon Sotheast Asia falls ...

I might contend that this situaiton happend because the IJ felt that Burma was not strategic except for the oil....suddenly US armor and Aussie's pop out of the jungle and the situation became very strategic ..

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(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 856
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/14/2013 1:23:17 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
March 7, 1942

Rush Hour

1) I sing a song once more of the Sea of Japan. Readers may think I belabor this, but I have been told over the years as a "lowly" AI player that I Just Didn't Understand how hard submarine warfare is when you play a human. That it was "impossible" to use subs in historic ways to slow and eventually stop the Japanese economy as was done in real life. And recently I was lectured by an old-school Japan-only player that patrols into the Sea of Japan were a waste of time, not worth the mine risk, etc. Well, here in the early war, with subs still sporting pre-war red-lead paint jobs, with no radar, with low-experience crews, three boats find this highway in full flower:






Some attacks. Some misses. Some duds. One success.

Sub attack near Hakodate at 118,50

Japanese Ships
xAK Yamagiri Maru, Torpedo hits 1, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS Snapper

Japan will come to understand that no TF can move near the HI without escorts. Holding escorts back in the rear will benefit the Allies in many places, and escorts don't run on rice balls like airplanes do. Screen shots like this are what keep the Allies in the game in these dark early months.

2) Ambon. Whew! Invasions like this one make Japanese generals eye their ceremonial blades with trepidation. The landing itself was just fine, the base should be easy. The IJN invested BBs after there was an initial snag. Aviation support was detailed and scheduled to land in proper sequence. (This turn, when Ambon should be flying a Rising Sun flag.) But things did not go according to plan.

More landings occur--the aviation base force--and the CD awakens.

xAK Nanman Maru, Shell hits 3, on fire
xAK Tonan Maru, Shell hits 4, heavy fires
xAK Nanman Maru, Shell hits 1, heavy fires
xAK Mikage Maru, Shell hits 1
xAK Mikage Maru, Shell hits 3, on fire

A MKB comes to call from the north of the island and accomplishes little:

Morning Air attack on 4th Coastal Gun Battalion, at 76,109 (Ambon)

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 16,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A5M4 Claude x 4
A6M2 Zero x 17
B5N1 Kate x 22
B5N2 Kate x 5

Japanese aircraft losses
B5N2 Kate: 1 damaged

Allied ground losses:
5 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

And then the attack. Forts are knocked down, Japan gets favorable odds, but the defenders hold once again. They will not after this, and the base will fall, but what a job these Dutchmen did! As a mark of their defiance, after the battle they bombard the quivering Japanese outside the walls one more time.

Ground combat at Ambon (76,109)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 2250 troops, 22 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 91

Defending force 1318 troops, 26 guns, 1 vehicles, Assault Value = 18

Japanese adjusted assault: 43

Allied adjusted defense: 19

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 1)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 0

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), preparation(-), morale(-)
experience(-)
Attacker: fatigue(-)

Japanese ground losses:
137 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 2 disabled

Allied ground losses:
164 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 10 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled

Assaulting units:
2nd Raiding Regiment
Sasebo 3rd SNLF
9th JNAF AF Unit

Defending units:
4th Coastal Gun Battalion
Molukken Garrison Bn /1
Ambon Base Force

3) Djambi has a busy day. A night AF bombing raid by Banshees, crippled and about to retire, does no damage but wakes everyone up. (50% strayed and did not proceed to target.) At daybreak an escorted Dutch bombing strike at 1000 feet has these results:

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M2 Zero: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIb Trop: 2 destroyed
139WH-3: 2 destroyed, 1 damaged

Oil hits 1

Followed immediately by the Forts at 9000 feet who meet a low-ops-points Zero CAP:

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
B-17E Fortress: 4 damaged

Oil hits 6

That's 7000 more supply Japan will have to haul some day to feed Palembang.

To complete the Oil day, more Forts hit Tarakan:

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 3

No Allied losses

Oil hits 1

4) The Allies get unlucky at Palembang, as Japan's tactics shift to meet the supply flows into Singers (today at about 20,300.) The Fast Transport TF has accumulated a lot of system and engine damage, so they are stood down in Critical Readiness status for a day to patch. Japan picks this day, after months of AF bombing, to shift to Port strikes. Several APDs are hit, and USS Whipple sinks at the pier. Three are on fire.

The RN ASW TF south of Singers is again attacked by Marys which miss, but won't forever. These are the best ASW ships the Allies have now, and no subs have been seen for two days. Subs only matter if supplies flow to Singers. The Allies may pause a few days, let Singers live on what it has, and try to break the routine which has been established. Another xAKL unloading at Singers is hit by a bomb, but continues to work. Replacements at Singers are back off for everyone except the Aussie infantry, the premier defender units there. Recon shows 34 Japanese LCUs in Singers' hex today, and 9 at JB.

Singers gets plastered again, again damaged IJA bombers number over 30, with some destroyed as well. If the attack does not come tomorrow I will once again have been wrong there. But who's counting?

5) The stack at Clark does not show a movement dot and Bataan is bombed again. I can't help but think how much the many engineer units sitting at Clark could be helping at Singers. I don't mind.

6) Blenheims hit Prome in an effort to continue to expand the Burma theater. Light AF damage recorded, no losses.

7) Japan does a recon-by-bombardment far to the north in China at Urumchi. This base has one defender of medium strength, but only Forts 1.5. It makes a little organic supply I believe. The Allies have a garrison requirement here, but I don't know if Japan does. I thnk so. This base has a bit of petroleum, but it's a long haul to get it south. I'm almost OK with Japan taking this base if it forces a garrison on them. Taking it might cost Japan more than it's worth though.

Ground combat at Urumchi (79,11)

Japanese Bombardment attack

Attacking force 1422 troops, 20 guns, 50 vehicles, Assault Value = 43

Defending force 1897 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 82

Assaulting units:
4th Cavalry Brigade

Defending units:
303rd Brigade

8) UNDERDOG grinds on with changes posted yesterday. No hits on any IJN carriers. Should have search planes at Canton tomorrow.

Attachment (1)

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 2/14/2013 2:05:33 PM >


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The Moose

(in reply to Crackaces)
Post #: 857
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/15/2013 9:39:54 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
March 8, 1942

Quiet Night, Busy Day

Watching the movie, I almost thought we had a synch bug. Absolutely NOTHING happened, a first I think. The screen centered on PH and every pulse just jerked it a few pixels to the right, but nothing else happened. Weird. Then it was day and all hell broke loose.

1) Two subs in the Sea of Japan sititng co-located in hexs with red TFs. Shots? Heck no! On an intercept, USS Snapper lets fly at a tanker near Hakodate escorted by a PB. Mike maybe had to change his shorts. Dud of course. Next month with the magic non-PPI radar A-scope installed, this will be a bang-bang gun battle. Just you wait, kids.

The Dutch navy earns its pay again with a successful surface attack. All that remains after this hit is confetti floating on the warm southern seas:

Sub attack near Bara at 73,107

Japanese Ships
xAK Shofuku Maru, Torpedo hits 4, heavy damage

Allied Ships
SS KXIV

SS KXIV attacking on the surface

(Ummm . . . it sank.)

2) Bombers at Palembang get APD Alden. I believe this is the one I left there, on fire. Two others I sent to Batavia to patch some system damage. I think. Need to check next turn. Safe to say that the reign of the Fast Transports sneaking into Singers is over for now.

3) Singers, with replacements mostly off, is still above 20,000 supply. More huge raids, no attack. Thirty-one damaged bombers, 5 destroyed.

4) Oil raids on Djambi and Miri do no damage. Lose about five mixed models. The Dutch are beginning to transition into B-25s and out of the Orca-head bomber they start with (forget the model; don't want to remember that POS.) A few P-40Es are also seeping into the Dutch pools if they can hang on and benefit from them.

5) Prome's AF is hit agin with more damage now the d/l is higher. The 55th Cavalry Regiment heading for Akyab is also hit with Chinese bombers, shifting it to Combat if it was not. The Allies have a small armor unit there already, about 7000 supply ashore, and three large infantry units on the way, two by road, one overland. Cox's Bazaar has an Aussie division coming from Karachi by rail. Chittagong continues to build and is heavily garrisoned.

6) Ambon falls. I ordered a shock attack if the Japanese rested, figuring the advantage of forts was gone and that the Japanese would never be more tired than after yesterday. The shock attack never comes off. The Dutchmen die where they stand. No POW camps for these.

Ground combat at Ambon (76,109)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 2218 troops, 22 guns, 2 vehicles, Assault Value = 86

Defending force 1198 troops, 26 guns, 1 vehicles, Assault Value = 7

Japanese adjusted assault: 47

Allied adjusted defense: 19

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 0)

Japanese forces CAPTURE Ambon !!!

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), preparation(-), fatigue(-), morale(-)
experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
71 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 12 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Allied ground losses:
1785 casualties reported
Squads: 42 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 131 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 11 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 18 (18 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 1 (1 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Units destroyed 3

7) The RAAF patrol planes reach Canton Island. One is damaged on landing, and the pilots are near 30 fatigue. Not sure if they flew the search mission this turn. Several hits toward PH, but I do not think any are from this unit, and none read overtly as carriers. The UNDERDOG TFs are backing and filling, trying to catch up or slow down due to mixed Cruise and Mission speed orders between the carriers and landing ships. This is fine. A little slowness will work right now.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 2/15/2013 9:43:42 PM >


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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 858
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/15/2013 11:11:48 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 2139
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline
quote:

The Dutch are beginning to transition into B-25s and out of the Orca-head bomber they start with (forget the model; don't want to remember that POS.)



I think Cap Mandrake coined the term "Dutch Uglofortresses" to describe those bombers. Seems appropriate as an identification!

< Message edited by BBfanboy -- 2/15/2013 11:12:58 PM >


_____________________________

I have not yet begun to fight! OTOH I have not yet begun to flee. Hmmmmm - choices, choices -always with the choices.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 859
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 1:17:10 AM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 3566
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: online
I prefer the term "hefalump".

Alfred

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 860
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 1:42:56 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

I prefer the term "hefalump".

Alfred


I'm an Ugly American. I vote POS (Uh, "Piece of . . . Stuff")

What committee of Dutch drunkards approved that design?

Note: Mike had a low-key day, so I just got turn #2. Friday night is good. Seeya.

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The Moose

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 861
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 2:08:35 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 2139
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

I prefer the term "hefalump".

Alfred


I'm an Ugly American. I vote POS (Uh, "Piece of . . . Stuff")

What committee of Dutch drunkards approved that design?

Note: Mike had a low-key day, so I just got turn #2. Friday night is good. Seeya.

They seem to have used the US Bolo bomber as a starting point, and added picture windows.

_____________________________

I have not yet begun to fight! OTOH I have not yet begun to flee. Hmmmmm - choices, choices -always with the choices.

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 862
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 3:07:01 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred

I prefer the term "hefalump".

Alfred


I'm an Ugly American. I vote POS (Uh, "Piece of . . . Stuff")

What committee of Dutch drunkards approved that design?

Note: Mike had a low-key day, so I just got turn #2. Friday night is good. Seeya.

They seem to have used the US Bolo bomber as a starting point, and added picture windows.




The difference might be we didn't risk a worldwide trading empire on the Bolo.

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The Moose

(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 863
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 6:36:28 AM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
******Breaking NEWS!!!!******


Singapore Assaulted Again!!


Read All About It!!!


Tomorrow


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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 864
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 12:12:55 PM   
Encircled


Posts: 914
Joined: 12/30/2010
From: Northern England
Status: offline
Is it a superb defensive victory, with the Austrailians supreme?

Or have commonwealth units collapsed, and the worst surrender in British history?

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 865
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 7:16:25 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
Sad news in conjunction with this AAR:


"'Underdog' cartoon co-creator dies at 85
by Associated Press

William Watts Biggers, the co-creator of the cartoon “Underdog,” the
mild-mannered canine shoeshine boy who turned into a caped superhero
to rescue his girlfriend, Sweet Polly Purebred, has died. He was 85.
Family friend Derek Tague says Biggers, who went by “Buck,” died
unexpectedly at his Plymouth, Mass., home on Sunday.

The native of Avondale Estates, Ga., worked for the New York City
advertising firm DFS when he accepted an assignment from the agency’s
largest client, General Mills, to create television cartoons to
promote its breakfast cereals. The most famous was “Underdog,” which
debuted on NBC in 1964.

The canine superhero, voiced by comic actor Wally Cox, also battled
villains including mad scientist Simon Bar Sinister, and a gangster
wolf Riff Raff.

Upon hearing the cries of Sweet Polly Purebred, Underdog would rush
into a telephone booth and transform into the hero.

He spoke in simple rhymes, his most famous probably “There’s no need
to fear, Underdog is here.”

Biggers also helped create “King Leonardo and His Short Subjects” and
“Tennessee Tuxedo and His Tales.” "

http://news-briefs.ew.com/2013/02/15/underdog-cartoon-co-creator-dies-at-85/

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The Moose

(in reply to Encircled)
Post #: 866
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 7:29:47 PM   
Alfred

 

Posts: 3566
Joined: 9/28/2006
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

******Breaking NEWS!!!!******


Singapore Assaulted Again!!


Read All About It!!!


Tomorrow



Hmm ...

You haven't quite mastered it. That fine print is far too big and prominantly displayed. You won't pass the bar exams unless you master the noble and ancient art of hiding fine print.

Alfred

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 867
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 7:53:07 PM   
Cpt Sherwood

 

Posts: 837
Joined: 12/1/2005
From: A Very Nice Place in the USA
Status: offline
You need to make the fine print blend in

(in reply to crsutton)
Post #: 868
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 8:07:29 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Alfred


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

******Breaking NEWS!!!!******


Singapore Assaulted Again!!


Read All About It!!!


Tomorrow



Hmm ...

You haven't quite mastered it. That fine print is far too big and prominantly displayed. You won't pass the bar exams unless you master the noble and ancient art of hiding fine print.

Alfred


Better?

_____________________________

The Moose

(in reply to Alfred)
Post #: 869
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 2/16/2013 9:02:01 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8022
Joined: 2/24/2009
Status: offline
March 9, 1942

Another Round, Barkeep!

Singapore, that fair city. Bane of Japan's existence, hero of the Allies' war efforts to date. Many of the moves and counter-moves in this game have centered here. I thought it might be nice for the historical purists to diary an account of the Aussie experience in the RL battle for the Jewel of the Empire:

"Fall of Singapore

By 31 January 1942, all British Empire forces had withdrawn from the Malay peninsula onto Singapore Island. On 8 February, the Japanese landed in the north-west of the island and within six days they were on the outskirts of Singapore city, which was also now under constant air attack.

Many of the troops had been shocked at the apparent lack of defences on the island. The men were battle-weary and the Australians had lost nearly 700 men fighting in Malaya since 14 January, with hundreds of others sick or wounded. Only one trained reinforcement unit, the 2/4th Machine Gun Battalion, arrived from Australia. Other last-minute reinforcements sent were untrained and ill-equipped for battle.


The Japanese had prepared for the invasion of Singapore with a heavy bombardment. They began their amphibious landings on the north-west of the island, where the Strait of Johore is narrowest. This area was held by the Australian 22nd Infantry Brigade but late on the night of 8 February the Japanese made their way through undefended sections. Twenty-four hours later a second Japanese landing force struck between the Causeway and the mouth of the Kranji River, an area held by the Australian 27th Infantry Brigade. By the morning of 10 February there were Japanese troops on most of north-west Singapore.

The Australian, British and Indian troops tried to hold the Japanese at various defensive lines but after two days many of their dreadfully depleted battalions had to be reorganised into composite units. A counter-attack on 10-11 February failed and on 12 February General H Gordon Bennett, the Australian commander, began moving his near-exhausted 8th Division AIF units into a perimeter just a few kilometres out of the city. By the next day the Japanese were within five kilometres of the Singapore waterfront. The entire city was now within range of Japanese artillery.


Official evacuations from Singapore had begun in late January and continued until almost the last moment. RAAF squadrons had been evacuated before the Japanese invaded the island and the remaining RAN warships were ordered to leave. Some merchant ships also got away carrying evacuees from the path of the Japanese. The warships' main operational tasks were escort duties, and the fleet based in Singapore included the destroyer HMAS Vampire and the sloop HMAS Yarra, which arrived late in January, along with several corvettes. The corvettes in the 21st Minesweeping Flotilla swept the sea lanes and conducted anti-submarine patrols. HMA Ships Toowoomba, Wollongong and Ballarat reinforced the original four corvettes, HMA Ships Bendigo, Burnie, Goulburn and Maryborough. The last 65 Australian Army nurses stationed in Singapore were ordered to board the Vyner Brooke, which sailed on 12 February. Their colleagues, who had sailed in the Empire Star the previous day, reached Australia, but only 24 of the nurses who sailed in the Vyner Brooke survived to return to Australia in 1945 after the war had ended.


By 14 February the Japanese had captured Singapore's reservoirs and pumping stations. The bombing, fighting and heavy shelling continued; many of the troops, separated from their units, wandered around aimlessly and the hospitals were crowded and overflowing. Some troops were deserting and others had become separated from their units. Hard fighting continued but on 15 February Lieutenant General Arthur Percival, the British commander in Singapore, called for a ceasefire and made the difficult decision to surrender. He signed the surrender document that evening at the Ford Factory on Bukit Timah Road. After days of desperate fighting, all British Empire troops were to lay down their arms at 8.30 that night. More than 100,000 troops became prisoners of war together with hundreds of European civilians who were interned.

Despite his instruction to Australian troops to stay at their posts, General Bennett and two of his staff officers escaped, controversially, from Singapore on the night of the surrender and eventually reached Australia."


The above is from an excellent Web site maintianed by the Australian government. See the link for photos and a more complete story of the efforts of Australian forces in WWII.

http://www.ww2australia.gov.au/japadvance/singapore.html

So. What happened in game world?

1) Another epic struggle at Singers, keying on two stiff Aussie infantry units as well as superior leadership bought over months with precious PPs. I am even more convinced that this arena has been, outside of Japan's own moves of course, driven by the twin factors of the Allies' being permitted to build to Forts 4 initially, and replacement of key COs with high Admin-rated leaders who have expertly drawn in replacements during the lulls in the fighting and restored disabled squads. The 150 spent to sack Perceval was money well spent.

The day began as they all have with saturation bombing. Fifty-seven bombers damaged, six destroyed. Targetting largely shifted to Ground, with the Singapore Fortress the most commonly chosen target, and the Indian divisions and one Aussie infantry unit being the other most common. Light bombers again went after the port and resident ships with no hits. One xAP was in unloading supplies. The other, with 58 system damage and moderate engine and float damage, was flushed to take its chances on the path to Palembang. The MLs again did their jobs, attracting bombs and shooting back at the low-flying attackers.

The ground assault replay was viewed in its entirety. The prelim bombardment phase was very long, demonstrating that Japan is well-equipped in that area with nearly 1000 guns. The infantry/armor phase went fairly quickly, with the Imperial Guards taking less damage than in the first attacks, but the independent regiments being severely diminished. On the defenders' side, almost all infantlry LCUs were zeroes except the Aussies, who were the rocks of the defense.

Forts were knocked down to 2. The city held once again, for the third time.

The report:

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 71433 troops, 831 guns, 384 vehicles, Assault Value = 2550

Defending force 44486 troops, 578 guns, 382 vehicles, Assault Value = 1234

Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 2

Japanese adjusted assault: 2724

Allied adjusted defense: 2449

Japanese assault odds: 1 to 1 (fort level 2)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), leaders(+), experience(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
7330 casualties reported
Squads: 183 destroyed, 295 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 50 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 107 disabled
Guns lost 94 (13 destroyed, 81 disabled)
Vehicles lost 31 (2 destroyed, 29 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
2245 casualties reported
Squads: 51 destroyed, 113 disabled
Non Combat: 44 destroyed, 142 disabled
Engineers: 5 destroyed, 47 disabled
Guns lost 41 (11 destroyed, 30 disabled)
Vehicles lost 26 (9 destroyed, 17 disabled)

Assaulting units:
56th Infantry Regiment
148th Infantry Regiment
21st Division
16th Infantry Regiment
2nd Tank Regiment
5th Division
15th Ind. Engineer Regiment
24th Infantry Regiment
56th Recon Regiment
56th Engineer Regiment
114th Infantry Regiment
23rd Ind. Engineer Regiment
12th Engineer Regiment
113th Infantry Regiment
Imperial Guards Division
55th Infantry Regiment
4th Ind. Engineer Regiment
Karafuto Mixed Brigade
1st RF Gun Battalion
20th AA Regiment
56th Field Artillery Regiment
18th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
5th Mortar Battalion
25th Army
3rd Medium Field Artillery Regiment
10th Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
3rd Mortar Battalion
3rd Ind. Mountain Gun Regiment
14th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
18th Mountain Gun Regiment
34th Field AA Battalion

Defending units:
5/14th Punjab Battalion
1st Mysore Battalion
2/17 Dogra Battalion
11th Indian Division
3rd Cavalry Regiment
SSVF Brigade
1st Hyderabad Battalion
3rd SSVF Battalion
22nd Australian Brigade
27th Australian Brigade
2nd Malay Battalion
2nd Loyal Battalion
1st Manchester Battalion
9th Indian Division
2nd ISF Base Force
3rd ISF Base Force
Singapore Fortress
1st ISF Base Force
Singapore Base Force
III Indian Corps
Malayan Air Wing
109th RAF Base Force
24th NZ Pioneer Coy
FMSV Brigade
111th RAF Base Force
3rd Heavy AA Regiment
Malaya Army
1st HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
110th RAF Base Force
3rd HK&S Light AA Regiment
2nd HK&S Heavy AA Regiment
22nd Indian Mountain Gun Regiment
1st Indian Heavy AA Regiment
112th RAF Base Force
109th RN Base Force
----------------------------------
As I write this I do not have the next turn in hand. I do not know how badly the defenders were hurt on a unit basis.

Did Japan err? On the positive side the air prep was long and heavy. It did keep Forts from rebuilding to 4, although under 20% progress was made in the pauses where air efforts shifted to Palembang. Some effort was made to keep supplies out of the city using subs and light bombers. A major HQ was present in the hex, and I believe a command-level HQ is in residence at JB. Large amounts of arty were used.

Also, it should be noted that in the midst of this siege the beta patch re-allowed LI supplies to be produced in the base. This amounts to about 180/day I believe.

On the negative side, Japan may have cost itself a win here in several ways. First, a Shock attack might have succeeded. The Allies were holding on by fingernails in the last stages of the infantry fighting. Second, the engineers sitting at Clark AFB probably would have been enough to take forts down to 1, or even all the way. In that case the city would likely have fallen with this same amount of force. Third, one more prepped infantry division would almost certianly have taken odds to 2:1 and probably resulted in a victory. Fourth, if bombing had focused on Ground and not on the AF and supply denial, it's possible some of the defenders would have been combat-ineffective. In summary, Singers needed more. Pretty much more of everything thrown at it. But not much more. It was close.

What now? There are about 8 LCUs at JB, and I do not know what they are. If any are fresh infantry, or tanks, a quick follow-on attack will probably work. Depending on the exact distribution of Japanese losses it's possible a quick shock attack in the next two days would work as well, especialy if bombing shifted to 100% ground targetting and kept disruption high. I plan to open the taps on supply burn, give nearly everyone a chance to rebuild and heal what they can, bring in Support squads if needed (those I do have in the pools), and leave fort-building on. Levels between 2 and 3 build faster than 3 to 4, and if bombing goes to Ground there might be a lull where Forts 3 could be reachieved. Doubtful that much time, but possible.

Will Japan pause now and bring in troops from the PI or elsewhere? Don't know. I wouldn't, but Japan in this game has been cautious with LCU strengths.

I've been considering all morning if I should throw in the towel on Singers and try to get the Aussie units out to Palembang, which at this point has more long-term strategic value. And I think I won't. I only have one decent-sized xAP in the sub-theater, although there are a few at Cocos. But without the Aussies Singers is an empty bag. Also, evac ships would surely be attacked by air and sub, and there are no assets to defend them. It would be a gauntlet run which might end up with Singers losing them and Palembang not gaining. So I think I will see what Singers can do to bandage itself and put forth at least one more credible defensive effort before the walls crash in.

Elsewhere . . .

2) The heavily-damaged APDs retreating from Palembang to Batavia are set upon by an I-boat. It misses, and the high-ASW ratings of the crippled destroyers do three hits, at least one of which is penetrating. I think, however, this TF might have retreated from the threat back toward Palembang and not forward to safety.

A different I-boat is attacked on the surface by S-39 near Billiton. The Americans miss, but intel is recorded that at least two big, ungainly subs are operating in shallow water near Singers.

3) Allied efforts to expand the air threat to Japan in the Burma theater continue. Strikes at Toungoo by the Chinese with AVG escort, and by new B-26s at Port Blair on Victoria Point (nightime) push the idea that CAP needs to be dispersed. Minor damage to both sides in these strikes.

4) Multiple ASW actions in the Sea of Japan tie down the attacking subs. This is going to be a fact of life for at least the next several months. The USN will probably evolve patrol areas as radar comes in and as Midway becomes the standard fuel budget.

5) A little bit of comedy as 66 IJA fighters sweep Palembang in two waves. One (1) P-38 is on high-CAP at 25,000 feet and meets the sweeps. No damage to either side.

6) On land, the bombing at Bataan continues, but still no movement dots at Clark. In Burma, the cavalry unit advancing on Akyab must have seen the forces gatheirng to meet it; it now has a SE movement dot. Japan bombards Urumchi for the second day without result. The defenders are pure infanty; no guns. The base is at 85% of Forts 2, building about 5% a day. China will allow this situation to continue as long as Japan likes.

7) Finally, UNDERDOG. TF destinations tweaked, and the carriers, which had fallen behind seven hexes due to my speed fiddling errors, are made independent to catch up and take station. A second replenishment group is being organized at SF to come to help eventualy, most likely on the withdrawl. The sub curtain to Christmas I's NW is still gathering into position. The RAAF patrol planes fly from Canton and see nothing.

Johnson I., which had only two subs showing for about a week after NEUMAN, for the first time shows surface ships. Three TFs, whcih read as single-ship each. (Unlikely.) The AF still reads as 40ish fighters alone, with no search or bombers. Are the TFs the KB or part of it, gone in to grab stranded fuel and wait to see what the sub sighting off San Diego was? Are they evac lift for the garrison on Johnson? ASW back to defend so supplies for the AF can come in? Just don't know. UNDERDOG is undetected as far as I know. It plows on at Cruise speed, hoping the Cats see something if something is there.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 2/17/2013 6:45:35 PM >


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