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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwinkle58 vs.1EyedJacks

 
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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/29/2012 7:12:38 AM   
inqistor


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

Do Chinese HQs respawn like the combat units?

IIRC manual mentions, that most HQs (of all nations) respawn automatically. Is China exception to this?

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/29/2012 2:22:47 PM   
witpqs

 

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I didn't know that about all HQs. I wonder if that has changed with the introduction of buying back destroyed formations with PPs?

BTW, IIRC from my current game then, yes, Chinese HQs do come back (without PP purchase) just as do the combat units.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/29/2012 6:39:04 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

I didn't know that about all HQs. I wonder if that has changed with the introduction of buying back destroyed formations with PPs?

BTW, IIRC from my current game then, yes, Chinese HQs do come back (without PP purchase) just as do the combat units.


I lost the Lusu War Area HQ so I can see if they show up in the Chungking magic queue pretty soon. But the manual is very explicit about China--infantry only. Not arty or base forces either. If HQs come to Chungking from the magic rebirth code that's a change. I myself hope that's not the case since the stated reason for the magic rebirth is the mass of Chinese peasants available to be infantry fodder. Which is true, but generals aren't peasants. HQs ought to cost.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 12/29/2012 6:40:03 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/29/2012 6:41:50 PM   
witpqs

 

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Lusu War Area is the one that starts the scenario practically already trapped, right? My game is in Jan '43, so I'll check when I get the turn and see if it's back.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/29/2012 7:05:46 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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January 30, 1942

The End of the Beginning

One more day to the end of the month, but nothing much happened today so I need a catchy title. Who better to crib than Winnie?

January 1942 is my least favorite month playing the Allies. It's worse than December because you expect titanic events in December, but January is a slog with few tools to wield. Running, running, losing, losing. Immense amounts of drudge housekeeping. Setting up hundreds of TFs, setting up pilot training, setting up sub patrol zones, setting up patrol planes, moving transports by the many hundreds to someplace where they can go to work. Every month afterwards rests on January to some extent. So it has to be done. But it's like flossing, not like eating the steak.

In this game January has not been too cruel. I have run a lot, especially in China, but in what I hope is a strategically interesting manner, one which makes Japan unsure of what the Allies are up to and how to respond. I held my carriers safe, Force Z the same, and lost only one BB on 12/7 and got three more safely off-map. There were some mistakes made, especially in the routes chosen for ship retreat the first week (USS Boise we hardly knew ya), mining patterns, the retreat in Malaysia which took too long to rebuild LCUs and thus lost a few, and too little supply forced into Singers. Probably others I'm forgetting. But at the beginning of January I thought Japan would be far more aggressive on land than has been the case. I thought all of the Celebes would be gone for example. I thought Palembang would be at least besieged today. I thought Japan would be building Rabaul. Would hold Manila. Would have Wake.

Another month of amphib bonus has gone and that's good. February has a real mass of upgrades open up, especially to DDs. Merchants begin to get a modicum of AA as they can be spared to go into the yard. CAs about double their AA suite too. And fighter production ticks up just a bit.

Much yet to do to set up defensive lines in Burma and elsewhere. I'm not happy yet with submarine production; too many have been tied up around Hawaii and only now are there four fleet boats appraoching the HI to test defenses and convoy routes. One will penetrate the Inland Sea if it can avoid mines. On land, intel has just given up yet another full infantry division prepping for Pearl Harbor; I must get more LCUs there. Two are on the water, a slight parachute unit and another USMC tank group. The Americal Division is unpacking at San Luis Obispo and will go aboard at SF in a week or so. Three BBs are en route to Pearl, Idaho just arrived this turn in SF, and Nevada comes out of the upgrade yard at Pearl at 100% tomorrow. A landing at Pearl will cost him if I can finish preps in February.

Much to be done. No time to waste.

1) Four busy bee AMcs at Merak clear 62 mines without mishap. The strait reads clear again.

2) Dutch sub attack wounds xAK, but more importantly gives intel:

Sub attack near Donggala at 67,98

Japanese Ships
xAK Arabia Maru, Torpedo hits 1
xAK Tokusima Maru
xAK Toko Maru
xAKL Tamaki Maru
TB Chidori

Allied Ships
SS KVIII

Japanese ground losses:
10 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Light escort, carrying troops. Best guess is western Celebes, or maybe Kendari. The latter takes a medium bomber strike today and is by far the more attractive tactical target for area denial, but Japan seems to be going a yard too far if this is the whole effort. The surface response force at Soerbaja has two CLs now to help the DDs. This force might try an intercept unless a MKB is seen.

3) A lot of bombing in China doing pretty stiff damage to road marching units in several places. The corps plus HQ near Yenen is attacked again and loses 1650 disabled to 106. There is no help for them, no supply, no air support. They must keep marching and do the best they can.

A first air attack on Lashio does some supply damage, but also signals that Japan has realized how key this base is to the "China Strategy." I have detailed the beginnings of a Lashio defense I was not planning to undertake two days ago. Mandalay must hold, and that means Lashio must at least slow Japanese advancement. The number of tanks he has poised to come west is sobering. Lashio is on the railroad and can get supply if Mandalay has it to spare. This turn the Allies also began a a sustained series of moves to build Chittagong as a second potential supply flow route to Imphal and the Mandalay group. If supply cannot be forced into these bases the Chinese army is going to have to keep moving into India where it can get some supply. And that will imperil Burma greatly.


< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 12/29/2012 7:14:40 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/29/2012 8:26:32 PM   
Encircled


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When you say "Mandalay must hold", do you mean "until we are out of China" or indefinitely?


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/29/2012 9:57:06 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Lusu War Area is the one that starts the scenario practically already trapped, right? My game is in Jan '43, so I'll check when I get the turn and see if it's back.


Yeah, down by Shanghai, north of a river I think, maybe on a dot hex by itself. In that range anyway. Toast.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/29/2012 10:05:39 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

When you say "Mandalay must hold", do you mean "until we are out of China" or indefinitely?




My hope would be indefinitely. I can easily put fifteen Chinese corps there, including some "American armed" ones. Plus assorted Indian and British units, including arty. Supply will be the break-point. I've never defended the region from a human, so I could be tragically wrong. But I don't want to start the road back from Imphal or north of there. I hope to perhaps threaten Indo-China if he gets too frisky. But that's several seasons away at best.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/30/2012 5:55:10 PM   
V I Lenin

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: Encircled

When you say "Mandalay must hold", do you mean "until we are out of China" or indefinitely?




My hope would be indefinitely. I can easily put fifteen Chinese corps there, including some "American armed" ones. Plus assorted Indian and British units, including arty. Supply will be the break-point. I've never defended the region from a human, so I could be tragically wrong. But I don't want to start the road back from Imphal or north of there. I hope to perhaps threaten Indo-China if he gets too frisky. But that's several seasons away at best.


It depends where you put them. Inside Mandalay base hex (or any other limited-supply base) the whole force will be restricted to the amount of supply #that base# can draw (=number on base screen * wastage * [x number of times per week depending on terrain path cost, 4 if cost is 70 or better, 2 if less than 70 I think]) and will have big problems as that is not a very big number even fully built up. Outside base they can draw their own from as far back or even further than the base would draw (= direct supply from Imphal, Chittagong, even Calcutta depending on where they are). So, for supply purposes, it would be better to defend not in a base, maybe ahead of Mandalay or, if that isn't possible, then perhaps in the jungle up country from Shwebo. If you do have to go into jungle getting out of it is much easier if you keep a hold and so don't have to make too many opposed river crossings, and it is much easier to attack base with supply limit from open country than it is to defend it.

Alternative is to defend in base but rotate units in and out to draw their own supplies - risky though as they will not calculate their needs based on bombardments and so on but only on sitting in open. If you have very big forts it can work better, though. Best would be jungle up road from Rangoon (Tonguu?) but maybe too late for that now.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/30/2012 6:23:45 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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Very good points, Mr. Lenin. Are you perhaps an old hand with a new account/screen name?

I do need to figure out a defense halo around Mandalay. Defending NE of the river there would be better, but Mandalay has AF and terrain features I want. It's at Forts 3 now and still building; also the air field. I also need to take some time once and for all and figure out what the monsoon rules are now after being patched. I'm ashamed to say I don't even know the exact dates.

Lashio is also going to need some flanker defenders in the mountains and rough country nearby. If he comes with tanks as I expect he will right now, I need to be able to at least threaten getting behind them. My hope is that both garrisoning and distance from his big supply ports will stall any huge advance into Burma from China. I think his main effort will be from "normal" directions such as Rangoon and up from Indo-China. So far he has not shown a lot of love for big amphibious ops such as a landing to take Calcutta directly, or Madras, would entail, but I may be schooled on that at Pearl before any Indian expedition becomes reality.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/30/2012 6:51:58 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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January 31, 1942

Fighter Games

Last day of the month. Yay.

1) Night IJN sub attack on small tankers sneaking fuel out of Soerbaja for Oz. No hits, and ASW response does nothing, but this tells me he's using subs to close gaps in the southern wall. This route has outlived its usefulness. Even a TAN fuel-carrier has value later on.

2) Both old B-17 units night bomb Johnson I. One Zero killed, one hole in the runway. From 4000 feet. Tell me again about night bombing? But the raid as harrassment and reminder has value.

3) USS Sculpin, one of the first four HI patrols, hits a mine at Hakodate as she tries to penetrate the Inland Sea. No report of sinking, but sunk ship sound heard at end of phase. It was regular surface ship sound, not deep breaking-up sound usual for a sub, but the odds are it was her. I'd take the risk again, if only to tell Japan that the subs are around. I will penetrate again by a safer route to the north next try.

4) Several major bomber strikes today fly without escort, and in one Nates are seen for the first time in weeks. I think this indicates Japan feels safe from CAP now and has shifted front-line Zeros and Oscars to the Burma front, and perhaps elsewhere for fatigue maintenance and pilot rest. In one raid this backfires as all seven surviving P-40s at Bataan get up and challenge the raid:

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed, 5 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed by flak

The sweep here flies after the bombers and one Zero is downed for two P-40s. Bataan has such overwhelming aviation repair now that five planes will be hand-rubbed and whispered to each night until they're lost.

5) Kendari is hit by 21 Bettys which bomb a vacant airfield, destroying some supply. The TF sub-attacked yesterday was lost today, but did not land anywhere. The Soerbaja surface group sortied with stops at eastern Celebes and then Kendari, but did not find it.

6) Sabang is hit in a harrassment-type raid which gets some supplies. This will be a target soon after Singers falls for all the normal reasons. There is a decent AA unit there from CT, and a lot of engineers, but not much real defense. Port Blair has an Aussie division inbound, but I can't spare anything ground-wise for Sumatra which is not already in place. At best the engineers may wreck Sabang when it falls.

7) Two 1000-point Fast Transport supply missions have gotten into Singers now without attack. Forts are at 3 +92%. Probably will stop there. Singers supplies at about 19,000.

9) Lashio is hit again by Bettys, but the range is extreme and the report reads as reduced loads. Think they're Bangkok units. West of Changsha the retreating defenders are hit hard for about 200 casualties. Can't be helped. Lanchow, vacuuming up smaller units, goes to Forts 3. I hope Japan turns the tanks in this direction for the oil and fuel and leaves the west alone for a few more weeks.

10) Chinese bombers hit the LCUs aimed at Tuang Gyi, expecting only to shift tanks from Move to Combat. A medium Chinese corps is coming down from Lashio to sit on the road east of TG and see what they can see. Instead the Chinese bomb a base force and no tanks show up. Probably in the stack still, but maybe retreated to repair disabled vehicles. TG is empty, so the base force would do. But it shows a desire to get an AF that close to Mandalay and Lashio ASAP.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 12/30/2012 6:57:55 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/30/2012 7:10:53 PM   
Captain Cruft


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Err technically the Inland Sea is the "river" bit between Kobe and Shimonoseki. What you are referring to is the Sea of Japan.

Putting subs through Hakodate is not a good idea. The only safe way in is by skirting Wakkanai at the top end of Hokkaido.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/30/2012 7:32:19 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Captain Cruft

Err technically the Inland Sea is the "river" bit between Kobe and Shimonoseki. What you are referring to is the Sea of Japan.

Putting subs through Hakodate is not a good idea. The only safe way in is by skirting Wakkanai at the top end of Hokkaido.


Ork, you are correct. Too much memory reliance on old patrol reports.

I won't try Hakodate again, but I will put subs into the SoJ. Too much "in your face" power not to. Perhaps because my undergrad university is the "Wahoos" and that is my favorite WWII sub? That she was lost with all hands in the northern entrance route is beside the point.

I think.


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/31/2012 2:43:28 PM   
Crackaces


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

Very good points, Mr. Lenin. Are you perhaps an old hand with a new account/screen name?

I do need to figure out a defense halo around Mandalay. Defending NE of the river there would be better, but Mandalay has AF and terrain features I want. It's at Forts 3 now and still building; also the air field. I also need to take some time once and for all and figure out what the monsoon rules are now after being patched. I'm ashamed to say I don't even know the exact dates.

Lashio is also going to need some flanker defenders in the mountains and rough country nearby. If he comes with tanks as I expect he will right now, I need to be able to at least threaten getting behind them. My hope is that both garrisoning and distance from his big supply ports will stall any huge advance into Burma from China. I think his main effort will be from "normal" directions such as Rangoon and up from Indo-China. So far he has not shown a lot of love for big amphibious ops such as a landing to take Calcutta directly, or Madras, would entail, but I may be schooled on that at Pearl before any Indian expedition becomes reality.



I think AE in the ground game is unique from many other wargame designs. My experience is that the typical wargame adopts a hex size (in this case 46 miles) and then designs around the unit size that operates on that front. 46 miles is the Offensive frontage for a good size Corps. The concept of ZOC from my perspective allows the idea of a larger frontage for defense in this case 138 miles. AE is unique in many ways from systems like I have described. For one, there are units of 1 squad that can exert influence in a hex of 46 miles! If you inlculde the concept of hexside control for establishing LOC's and this game has mechanics with has lots of ramifications in my opinion.

Just one thought as you mention -- getting behind the enemy. Combat takes place in the hex not between units in adjacent hexes like many other wargames [as you very well know but I mention to establish context]. This makes the naive attacker driving large stacks into the enemy seriously vulnerable. If the attacker enters the defenders hex from only one direction the attacker only controlls one hexside in the contested hex. Simply stopping the advance for enough turns to get a unit, armor moves the fastest, to enter the hex from the same hexside that the attacker entered and those forces are trapped. Getting another unit to reenter to contested hex or winning the contest is the only way to free these forces. Better yet, though the defender might have advanced the unit from a position out of supply - once the trapping unit enters the contested hex it assumes the supply status of the hex. Once the attacking units lose LOC supply becomes an instant question and the situation for the IJ becomes critical -- especially in Burma where the IJ are pressured to achieve defensible positions before the Allies OOB enables offensive capabilites.

The best hexes for this maneuver are rough/jungle with a single road because the defender has a defensive bonus making it easier to stop the advance and force a battle over turns.Another advantage in Malaira areas of fighting a low AV boosted by terrain vs. a High AV [the more units the better] is the attrition each turn from not being at a base. yes each side is attrited but a few units on the defense can force many attcking units to undergo attrition at a faster rate overall. Second, the attacker is typically advancing along the roads axis making the maneuver to reenter the hex simply a matter of seizing control of the road. Third, maneuever in the jungles of Burma makes reentering the contested hex from a different hexside than the road a laborious matter. The objective does not have to be to go on the offense. I surrounded 4 stacks in my last game and simply let Father time in a Malaria area do its thing while increasing forces from the OOB maneuvered freely.

BTW) Airpower is a great tool for slowing the IJ advance and breaking up IJ formations. AFAIK simply attacking a unit by air regardless of results transitions the unit into combat mode from move mode slowing the unit(s) in question by 1/2 as the movement phase is toward the end of the turn. A large stack might have 10 units and a smaller number of these units with movement cut in 1/2 suddenly starts stringing units along forcing the IJ to either coordinate the units again or advance with less and less force. This is insidious in a way because the player must go back through the stack and reset the operational mode back to 'move' from 'combat'. Forget this fact and the effect compounds.

I have two PBEM games both scenario #1 where this operational methdology worked with dramatic results. Trapping the 14th Army and allowing the 1 AUS Corps free reign in Thailand. Once Allied Armor is in the plains of Thailand it is "Katy bar the door ..because the flood is coming ..' I would assume in scenario #2 that the biggest affect would be to simply tangle the IJ advance ...



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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/31/2012 2:52:30 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
3) USS Sculpin, one of the first four HI patrols, hits a mine at Hakodate as she tries to penetrate the Inland Sea. No report of sinking, but sunk ship sound heard at end of phase. It was regular surface ship sound, not deep breaking-up sound usual for a sub, but the odds are it was her. I'd take the risk again, if only to tell Japan that the subs are around. I will penetrate again by a safer route to the north next try.


Went to visit the inlaws in San Antonio and brought Blair's "Silent Victory" along for the ride. Just finished reading up on the Allies first and second efforts to penetrate the Sea of Japan. Treacherous passage through La Perouse strait between Sakhalin and Hokkaido. The other avenues (at least up until early 1944) were considered suicidal. First and second efforts into the inland sea were costly for the Allies.

If you have to try to get in there, go in through La Perouse. Hakodate is almost certainly mined up the ying-yang. Same with Tsushima. The risk-reward on this may not be worth it just yet.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/31/2012 3:41:42 PM   
BBfanboy


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Sakhalin has large amounts of resources and some oil which is all critical to Japanese industry, so he has to operate convoys from the two ports there to northern Japan - Aomori or Niigata being likely drop points. Put one sub in the S of J and make an appearance, the Japanese have to scrounge some escorts for these convoys, reducing what is available elsewhere. They also need to set up air patrols to increase the DL on the sub. It's all good!

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/31/2012 3:48:38 PM   
Chickenboy


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None of which is a surprise to any Japanese player. Most will have some form of air search, mines and SC ASW TF activity here if they're paying attention.

What does the Allied player gain from penetrating the SOJ? Where are the Japanese supply / convoy lines? You think they're in the SOJ per se? No. There's nothing there. The convoy routes are Hakodate/Ominato; Sakhalin to Hokkaido (somewhere) and back and a bunch of activity west of Tsushima straits. Realistic? No. But the Japanese don't need the SOJ in the game, really-they've got the area(s) around it.

So, Allied dogs-transit as many minefields, air search and ASW TFs as you want to get into the SoJ. My guess is your risks will not reach a risk:reward status in your favor.

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 12/31/2012 3:49:05 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/31/2012 9:06:25 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Lusu War Area is the one that starts the scenario practically already trapped, right? My game is in Jan '43, so I'll check when I get the turn and see if it's back.


Following up on this, I checked mine and LWA is indeed in the Chungking magic queue 28 days out. So the manual is by the boards now.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/31/2012 9:19:28 PM   
witpqs

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

Lusu War Area is the one that starts the scenario practically already trapped, right? My game is in Jan '43, so I'll check when I get the turn and see if it's back.


Following up on this, I checked mine and LWA is indeed in the Chungking magic queue 28 days out. So the manual is by the boards now.

Got so busy with a carrier fracas these last two turns that I forgot to check.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/31/2012 9:45:49 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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A very useful, thoughtful post. Thanks very much. Lots of pondering going on in Frostbite Falls.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I think AE in the ground game is unique from many other wargame designs. My experience is that the typical wargame adopts a hex size (in this case 46 miles) and then designs around the unit size that operates on that front. 46 miles is the Offensive frontage for a good size Corps. The concept of ZOC from my perspective allows the idea of a larger frontage for defense in this case 138 miles. AE is unique in many ways from systems like I have described. For one, there are units of 1 squad that can exert influence in a hex of 46 miles! If you inlculde the concept of hexside control for establishing LOC's and this game has mechanics with has lots of ramifications in my opinion.

It sure does. In the "don't teach your grandma to suck eggs" category, it still bears mention that AE is a naval game with a land game attached. Naval is the dog, land the tail. A hex size of "reasonable" size for many of the LCUs--say 3-5 miles--would make the naval game unplayable, not to mention run into RAM restrictions pretty fast. Lots of compromises are needed with a game spanning Karachi to New York the long way around. To that you have to add the need to model continental land war with island land war. The only relief is that the compromises are imposed on both sides.

Just one thought as you mention -- getting behind the enemy. Combat takes place in the hex not between units in adjacent hexes like many other wargames [as you very well know but I mention to establish context]. This makes the naive attacker driving large stacks into the enemy seriously vulnerable.

In a long-ago thread on para frags I used the phrase "trail of bread crumbs" to describe the need for the stacking attacker to hold the back door open. Very few players seem to do this.

If the attacker enters the defenders hex from only one direction the attacker only controlls one hexside in the contested hex. Simply stopping the advance for enough turns to get a unit, armor moves the fastest, to enter the hex from the same hexside that the attacker entered and those forces are trapped. Getting another unit to reenter to contested hex or winning the contest is the only way to free these forces. Better yet, though the defender might have advanced the unit from a position out of supply - once the trapping unit enters the contested hex it assumes the supply status of the hex. Once the attacking units lose LOC supply becomes an instant question and the situation for the IJ becomes critical -- especially in Burma where the IJ are pressured to achieve defensible positions before the Allies OOB enables offensive capabilites.

Taking the two cases--Lashio and Burma--separately, I hear you. I am also not inherently good at this type of thing while my opponent is. He thinks like the soldier he was. I struggle with maneuver and supply routes.

Looking at Lashio, which is likely to be my earlier headache, the terrain is interesting. The city itself is no more or less defensible than many others, but it is on the western side of a funnel through mountains sectioned by yellow road. That piece of the map is one I'm looking at as I bring the Chinese hordes through Paoshan. I still have a couple of dozen corps to come, and I could divert any number of them into the mountains in line abreast E-W, waiting to step down onto the yellow road after an attacking stack passes en route to Lashio and Burma. The only defense would be to peel off the stack and confront each in turn, since any one can close the supply route to the stack. If I do this now and they get some organic fort-building time they may throw some serious sand into the gears if he does bring those five tank regiments from Sian that far west.

In Burma I'm more uncertain of a plan. The rivers are very important. I had not thought of the malaria aspects you describe, but they are significant too. I can atomize some countryside Chinese corps and create some real whack-a-mole problems for his supply lines if I'm willing to risk or lose the frags. As long as I hold Chungking they'll be reborn, but at 1/3.

He's used his bombers to good effect on me already in Burma, and other than the Chinese refugee heavies I have nothing to use there yet. I have to keep pinching myself and reminding moi how early it still is. We've been playing a long real time time already, and in an AI game I'd be in fall 1942 by now. But as time passes air power will come into play a lot more to be sure.


The best hexes for this maneuver are rough/jungle with a single road because the defender has a defensive bonus making it easier to stop the advance and force a battle over turns.Another advantage in Malaira areas of fighting a low AV boosted by terrain vs. a High AV [the more units the better] is the attrition each turn from not being at a base. yes each side is attrited but a few units on the defense can force many attcking units to undergo attrition at a faster rate overall. Second, the attacker is typically advancing along the roads axis making the maneuver to reenter the hex simply a matter of seizing control of the road. Third, maneuever in the jungles of Burma makes reentering the contested hex from a different hexside than the road a laborious matter. The objective does not have to be to go on the offense. I surrounded 4 stacks in my last game and simply let Father time in a Malaria area do its thing while increasing forces from the OOB maneuvered freely.

Part of the question for me is how hard will he push in a no-rules, auto-vic focused game. So far auto-vic doesn't seem to be his goal. But his huge land force advantage from not having to pay PPs to use Manchuurian units could swing his thinking on the Asian landmass. That was the core reason I did the abandon China strategy. His stacks in north and central China so far have been big but not stupid big. At each big take-down he has paused a few days and let me escape the defenders west. He's doing that at Sian and Changsha right now and my Chinese are making 20-30 miles a day on good roads. Maybe he's waiting for garrison small-fry to come in from the east and SE bases, but he's being very methodical in China. I only have one intel hit on Lashio prep and none on Paoshan at all.

In Burma so far stylistically I've seen a great reliance on air power and not a big penetration by LCUs. He has a 2-stack headed to Taung Gyi right now which is, I think, a tank regiment slightly battered, and a base force. I have a medium corps and an HQ headed south to sit to TG's east on the yellow road intersection and see what he does. It's an experiment. I want to see if he feeds that flank, or if he comes directly at the Mandalay group. Mandalay has 1600 AV already, but I can't feed that, so some are going into the bush starting this turn. Chittagong has 10,000 supply and much more coming in from three sources. February will be an interesting month.

BTW) Airpower is a great tool for slowing the IJ advance and breaking up IJ formations. AFAIK simply attacking a unit by air regardless of results transitions the unit into combat mode from move mode slowing the unit(s) in question by 1/2 as the movement phase is toward the end of the turn. A large stack might have 10 units and a smaller number of these units with movement cut in 1/2 suddenly starts stringing units along forcing the IJ to either coordinate the units again or advance with less and less force. This is insidious in a way because the player must go back through the stack and reset the operational mode back to 'move' from 'combat'. Forget this fact and the effect compounds.

He knows this in spades! Much of his road bombing has been to flip modes I think. It's worked too. I have responded by checking each . . . and . . . every . . . LCU . . . every freakin' turn! Also to never use the Follow button. Each LCU gets its own march order and if it is not flipped it moves ahead of the flipped-to-Combat-mode unlucky few. In a retreat this is not so bad as on the attack since the flippees are often the infantry units and not the base forces or HQs when a stack is hit. I think the game code has some reference to the DB line number for the units when choosing which take the attack, but I've never tried to correlate that. If it flips I flip it back the next turn and press on.

I have two PBEM games both scenario #1 where this operational methdology worked with dramatic results. Trapping the 14th Army and allowing the 1 AUS Corps free reign in Thailand. Once Allied Armor is in the plains of Thailand it is "Katy bar the door ..because the flood is coming ..' I would assume in scenario #2 that the biggest affect would be to simply tangle the IJ advance ...

That's all I'm hoping to do. I have no illusions about my accumen in ground combat. Burma has never interested me much either. I think this time I need to get more interested though. No HRs means it's his call how much he brings over and how fast.



< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 12/31/2012 9:55:12 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 12/31/2012 10:17:12 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
3) USS Sculpin, one of the first four HI patrols, hits a mine at Hakodate as she tries to penetrate the Inland Sea. No report of sinking, but sunk ship sound heard at end of phase. It was regular surface ship sound, not deep breaking-up sound usual for a sub, but the odds are it was her. I'd take the risk again, if only to tell Japan that the subs are around. I will penetrate again by a safer route to the north next try.


Went to visit the inlaws in San Antonio and brought Blair's "Silent Victory" along for the ride. Just finished reading up on the Allies first and second efforts to penetrate the Sea of Japan. Treacherous passage through La Perouse strait between Sakhalin and Hokkaido. The other avenues (at least up until early 1944) were considered suicidal. First and second efforts into the inland sea were costly for the Allies.

If you have to try to get in there, go in through La Perouse. Hakodate is almost certainly mined up the ying-yang. Same with Tsushima. The risk-reward on this may not be worth it just yet.


My Blair has not been read in about a decade. It's a time commitment. I'm stil trying to get through "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" which I started last Christmas when I decided to give WitE a try. The game is long shelved, but the book is still on the nightstand.

USS Wahoo was lost in La Perouse. This turn the good news was USS Sculpin did not sink. She has 48/36/3 damage, but might make Pearl on cruise before the war is over. Whatever the sunk-sound was it wasn't her.

I have another fleet boat coming in the northern route over the next two days, so we'll see. She has a patrol zone that includes Sapporo. Mines may get her too.

I have a different attitude toward the sub war than many game players in here. I see what to me look like whacky uses for them in some AARs, but to each his own I guess. My views are an amalgam of WWII thought (after the fleet scout role was abandoned on 12/8) on their use as commerce destroyers, and my own Cold War experience of subs as not only force multipliers for the fleet but also, to coin a phrase, "asset thieves." Subs by their very presence demand a response. They are cheap in VP and fuel and repair senses, yet they force investment of ASW assets far beyond their organic worth. They can do immense damage if ignored.

For those reasons I don't have no-go areas in my sub wars. I won't try the Inland Sea right now, but that's not to say I won't later. The Sea of Japan is productive from an asset-stealing sense if penetration keeps escorts and planes at home. It costs him fuel. The ops loss routines in the game favor the sub over the ASW airborne patrol. If he has to fly them he can't keep up with airframe fatigue management. He loses pilots to ops loss. He has to build planes he might not have or models he disfavors. Integrated ASW is the most complex, expensive naval operation there is. One sub costs the enemy a lot more than the sub owner pays.

Right now I have no idea to where my opponent is shipping resources, fuel, and oil from Sapporo and the other northern centers. He might be using Akita for all I know. It has a small port, but it's not in the widely-read Japanese economic primers which I too can read, so he might be using that and other "non-traditional" ports for some of his traffic. I don't want him to think that's always going to be a free pass. Part of that is psyops for sure, but some of it is also looking for soft, unescorted targets my bum-fish boats can have with gunfire. Every boat going north so far has gotten the very best, most-aggressive skipper I have in the pool. I want them on the surface blasting away for now. If that brings escorts to the SoJ, more the better.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 12/31/2012 10:21:45 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 1/1/2013 12:50:39 AM   
Crackaces


Posts: 2607
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quote:

It sure does. In the "don't teach your grandma to suck eggs" category, it still bears mention that AE is a naval game with a land game attached. Naval is the dog, land the tail. A hex size of "reasonable" size for many of the LCUs--say 3-5 miles--would make the naval game unplayable, not to mention run into RAM restrictions pretty fast. Lots of compromises are needed with a game spanning Karachi to New York the long way around. To that you have to add the need to model continental land war with island land war. The only relief is that the compromises are imposed on both sides.


My comment is not so much that the ground game is borked .. but more it is very different and takes very different thinking IMHO to be successful. Especally agasnst someone who does understand the implecations of the design.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 1/1/2013 1:01:30 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 17861
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
3) USS Sculpin, one of the first four HI patrols, hits a mine at Hakodate as she tries to penetrate the Inland Sea. No report of sinking, but sunk ship sound heard at end of phase. It was regular surface ship sound, not deep breaking-up sound usual for a sub, but the odds are it was her. I'd take the risk again, if only to tell Japan that the subs are around. I will penetrate again by a safer route to the north next try.


Went to visit the inlaws in San Antonio and brought Blair's "Silent Victory" along for the ride. Just finished reading up on the Allies first and second efforts to penetrate the Sea of Japan. Treacherous passage through La Perouse strait between Sakhalin and Hokkaido. The other avenues (at least up until early 1944) were considered suicidal. First and second efforts into the inland sea were costly for the Allies.

If you have to try to get in there, go in through La Perouse. Hakodate is almost certainly mined up the ying-yang. Same with Tsushima. The risk-reward on this may not be worth it just yet.


My Blair has not been read in about a decade. It's a time commitment. I'm stil trying to get through "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" which I started last Christmas when I decided to give WitE a try. The game is long shelved, but the book is still on the nightstand.

USS Wahoo was lost in La Perouse. This turn the good news was USS Sculpin did not sink. She has 48/36/3 damage, but might make Pearl on cruise before the war is over. Whatever the sunk-sound was it wasn't her.

I have another fleet boat coming in the northern route over the next two days, so we'll see. She has a patrol zone that includes Sapporo. Mines may get her too.

I have a different attitude toward the sub war than many game players in here. I see what to me look like whacky uses for them in some AARs, but to each his own I guess. My views are an amalgam of WWII thought (after the fleet scout role was abandoned on 12/8) on their use as commerce destroyers, and my own Cold War experience of subs as not only force multipliers for the fleet but also, to coin a phrase, "asset thieves." Subs by their very presence demand a response. They are cheap in VP and fuel and repair senses, yet they force investment of ASW assets far beyond their organic worth. They can do immense damage if ignored.

For those reasons I don't have no-go areas in my sub wars. I won't try the Inland Sea right now, but that's not to say I won't later. The Sea of Japan is productive from an asset-stealing sense if penetration keeps escorts and planes at home. It costs him fuel. The ops loss routines in the game favor the sub over the ASW airborne patrol. If he has to fly them he can't keep up with airframe fatigue management. He loses pilots to ops loss. He has to build planes he might not have or models he disfavors. Integrated ASW is the most complex, expensive naval operation there is. One sub costs the enemy a lot more than the sub owner pays.

Right now I have no idea to where my opponent is shipping resources, fuel, and oil from Sapporo and the other northern centers. He might be using Akita for all I know. It has a small port, but it's not in the widely-read Japanese economic primers which I too can read, so he might be using that and other "non-traditional" ports for some of his traffic. I don't want him to think that's always going to be a free pass. Part of that is psyops for sure, but some of it is also looking for soft, unescorted targets my bum-fish boats can have with gunfire. Every boat going north so far has gotten the very best, most-aggressive skipper I have in the pool. I want them on the surface blasting away for now. If that brings escorts to the SoJ, more the better.


In the 'keepin' it real' camp, I appreciated the book's discussion on the loss of Wahoo and another submarine from attempts to penetrate the inland sea. The commanders were floored by the loss of Morton and crew. The other losses hurt too. These losses prompted discussion between Fife, Lockwood and Christie that eventually ended attempts to enter the Sea of Japan.

Three Admirals agreed that the shipping in the SoJ was not worth the potential loss of boats, even if the SoJ was a target rich environment *and* lots of resources were moving through there. These decisions-real men, real consequences, real life help to color my viewpoint on how much risk commanders would take IRL. S'true-they wanted the information you seek too. But they weren't as disconnected from their losses and the risks to flesh-n-blood men as you seem to be.

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Post #: 533
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 1/1/2013 1:28:56 AM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 2367
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

In the 'keepin' it real' camp, I appreciated the book's discussion on the loss of Wahoo and another submarine from attempts to penetrate the inland sea. The commanders were floored by the loss of Morton and crew. The other losses hurt too. These losses prompted discussion between Fife, Lockwood and Christie that eventually ended attempts to enter the Sea of Japan.

Three Admirals agreed that the shipping in the SoJ was not worth the potential loss of boats, even if the SoJ was a target rich environment *and* lots of resources were moving through there. These decisions-real men, real consequences, real life help to color my viewpoint on how much risk commanders would take IRL. S'true-they wanted the information you seek too. But they weren't as disconnected from their losses and the risks to flesh-n-blood men as you seem to be.

I don't think they ended the penetration attempts permanently, as I recall reading accounts of subs penetrating near Tsushima using a sonar system that detected mines. I believe that was in spring 1945. When they got in there the subs found lots of targets, a nice change from the dearth of shipping left in the areas outside the S of J (thanks to a too-successful sub campaign against shipping and the long reach of allied bombers).

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 1/1/2013 5:31:37 AM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 17861
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

In the 'keepin' it real' camp, I appreciated the book's discussion on the loss of Wahoo and another submarine from attempts to penetrate the inland sea. The commanders were floored by the loss of Morton and crew. The other losses hurt too. These losses prompted discussion between Fife, Lockwood and Christie that eventually ended attempts to enter the Sea of Japan.

Three Admirals agreed that the shipping in the SoJ was not worth the potential loss of boats, even if the SoJ was a target rich environment *and* lots of resources were moving through there. These decisions-real men, real consequences, real life help to color my viewpoint on how much risk commanders would take IRL. S'true-they wanted the information you seek too. But they weren't as disconnected from their losses and the risks to flesh-n-blood men as you seem to be.

I don't think they ended the penetration attempts permanently, as I recall reading accounts of subs penetrating near Tsushima using a sonar system that detected mines. I believe that was in spring 1945. When they got in there the subs found lots of targets, a nice change from the dearth of shipping left in the areas outside the S of J (thanks to a too-successful sub campaign against shipping and the long reach of allied bombers).


Yes, that's right. "Hell's Bells" helped them back into the SoJ after a 2.5 year hiatus. They did find a plethora of targets-many of which weren't even Soviet!

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 1/1/2013 5:38:30 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

quote:

It sure does. In the "don't teach your grandma to suck eggs" category, it still bears mention that AE is a naval game with a land game attached. Naval is the dog, land the tail. A hex size of "reasonable" size for many of the LCUs--say 3-5 miles--would make the naval game unplayable, not to mention run into RAM restrictions pretty fast. Lots of compromises are needed with a game spanning Karachi to New York the long way around. To that you have to add the need to model continental land war with island land war. The only relief is that the compromises are imposed on both sides.


My comment is not so much that the ground game is borked .. but more it is very different and takes very different thinking IMHO to be successful. Especally agasnst someone who does understand the implecations of the design.


I apologize if my comment implied you thought anything was borked. That was the reason I used the old "suck eggs" idiom (or is it an aphorism? ) I was agreeing that the land model is "crazy" in terms of frontage coverage with a squad or a frag, but I understood why that was necessary to the greater whole.

I am aided by not having a long history of playing land-based hex games. I played a lot of them back in Apple IIe days, but few since. So in that sense AE is "normal" to me and I don't have to unlearn habits. But it also means I don't have a lot of non-AE experience thinking about land combat either. I'm learning, but it doesn't come naturally like EMCON and sea state considerations do for me in naval warfare.

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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 1/1/2013 5:53:00 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8321
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

In the 'keepin' it real' camp, I appreciated the book's discussion on the loss of Wahoo and another submarine from attempts to penetrate the inland sea. The commanders were floored by the loss of Morton and crew. The other losses hurt too. These losses prompted discussion between Fife, Lockwood and Christie that eventually ended attempts to enter the Sea of Japan.

Three Admirals agreed that the shipping in the SoJ was not worth the potential loss of boats, even if the SoJ was a target rich environment *and* lots of resources were moving through there. These decisions-real men, real consequences, real life help to color my viewpoint on how much risk commanders would take IRL. S'true-they wanted the information you seek too. But they weren't as disconnected from their losses and the risks to flesh-n-blood men as you seem to be.


As we've discussed in the past I am pretty disconnected from any impulse to treat the game as history. Too much 20/20 hindsight, too many abstractions. I know things those very smart admirals didn't. For example, I know exactly how much the Japanese economy depends on petroleum. This was not fully grasped and acted upon in RL until 1944. I know exactly when my torpedoes get better, and I know I have a problem with them right now. Not in denial. I know that I will face completely ahistorical Super-Es in 1944 and I need to prepare for that. I know in advance which skippers are great, and don't have to wait five patrols for them to accumulate stats. They show up as superstars.

In terms of the game I'm also driven right now by the reality that Midway is not a viable refueling base, for various reasons. As such some very good patrol areas, such as near the Pescadores, are so far I have very limited station time from Pearl. The NE SoJ is closer and gives me more work for the time invested. A squadron in Brisbane is months away due to fuel. I am working historic basing in Java as much as I can, but most of the fleet boats are near Pearl and by the time I could get them to Java I'd have to pull them out again due to base loss. Many of the Manila boats were sent to Pearl to address the ahistoric Japanese drive to threaten Pearl well into 1942; they didn't go to Java and Oz. And so on.

In the game a sub is worth about what a good merchant is worth in VP terms. I think that's too low, but it is what it is. Right now I don't have a lot of fleet boats with 10k endurance. The T-class and P-class of pre-war boats are C+ at best. Gatos are arriving slowly, but right now patrols past Truk are only moderately useful from Pearl. For the Gatos I have the SoJ is a small footprint where I KNOW ships exist nearby. I know in general terms where they go and where they come. I also know there are a lot of mines, but there are mines at Truk, Kwajalein, and Babel-de-bob as well.

In addition to the SoJ I have Shark in a triangle of deep water south of Kobe, and Triton on a long NE-SW coastal route almost to Yokahama and north to Ominato. Only one boat is going into the SoJ today. It's just a start, but it won't be a central focus either.

None of this might work, but I'm going to try to drive my subs in the best way I know how. You will never see a checkerboard of Allied subs one hex apart carpeting a whole sea as I see in many AARs. But I also won't treat them as fragile flowers either. A lot will be lost. Same as history.

Appreciate the input, JFB.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 1/1/2013 5:59:36 PM >


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Post #: 537
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 1/1/2013 6:02:29 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 17861
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

In the 'keepin' it real' camp, I appreciated the book's discussion on the loss of Wahoo and another submarine from attempts to penetrate the inland sea. The commanders were floored by the loss of Morton and crew. The other losses hurt too. These losses prompted discussion between Fife, Lockwood and Christie that eventually ended attempts to enter the Sea of Japan.

Three Admirals agreed that the shipping in the SoJ was not worth the potential loss of boats, even if the SoJ was a target rich environment *and* lots of resources were moving through there. These decisions-real men, real consequences, real life help to color my viewpoint on how much risk commanders would take IRL. S'true-they wanted the information you seek too. But they weren't as disconnected from their losses and the risks to flesh-n-blood men as you seem to be.


As we've discussed in the past I am pretty disconnected from any impulse to treat the game as history. Too much 20/20 hindsight, too many abstractions. I know things those very smart admirals didn't. For example, I know exactly how much the Japanese economy depends on petroleum. This was not fully grasped and acted upon in RL until 1944. I know exactly when my torpedoes get better, and I know I have a problem with them right now. Not in denial. I know that I will face completely ahistorical Super-Es in 1944 and I need to prepare for that. I know in advance which skippers are great, and don't have to wait five patrols for them to accumulate stats. They show up as superstars.

In terms of the game I'm also driven right now by the reality that Midway is not a viable refueling base, for various reasons. As such some very good patrol areas, such as near the Pescadores, are so far I have very limited station time from Pearl. The NE SoJ is closer and gives me more work for the time invested. A squadron in Brisbane is months away due to fuel. I am working historic basing in Java as much as I can, but most of the fleet boats are near Pearl and by the time I could get them to Java I'd have to pull them out again due to base loss. Many of the Manila boats were sent to Pearl to address the ahistoric Japanese drive to threaten Pearl well into 1942; they didn't go to Java and Oz. And so on.

In the game a sub is worth about what a good merchant is worth in VP terms. I think that's too low, but it is what it is. Right now I don't have a lot of fleet boats with 10k endurance. The T-class and P-class of pre-war boats are C+ at best. Gatos are arriving slowly, but right now patrols past Truk are only moderately useful from Pearl. For the Gaatos I have the SoJ is a small footprint where I KNOW ships exist nearby. I know in general terms where they go and where they come. I also know there are a lot of mines, but there are mines at Truk, Kwajalein, and Babel-de-bob as well.

In addition to the SoJ I have Shark in a triangle of deep water south of Kobe, and Triton on a long NE-SW coastal route almost to Yokahama and north to Ominato. Only one boat is going into the SoJ today. It's just a start, bnut it won't be a central focus either.

None of this might work, but I'm going to try to drive my subs in the best way I know how. You will never see a checkerboard of Allied subs one hex apart carpeting a whole sea as I see in many AARs. But I also won't treat them as fragile flowers either. A lot will be lost. Same as history.

Appreciate they input, JFB.


Good post, moose-san.

Unmentioned above was the near-run relief of Fife after three fleet boats were lost in as many weeks in late 1942. Keeps me on my toes-lose too many boats and someone's going to be looking for your replacement. Of course, as a JFB uber-Admiral, I can just expect that the responsible party go and commit sepuku or something.

In re-reading Blair, I'm also struck with the incredibly actionable ULTRA intel that the submariners received. With the exception of about 4 months in early 1943, the Americans were able to read the Japanese mail with incredible accuracy. Several skippers (jokingly) complained to Lockwood that the Japanese convoys were 15 minutes behind schedule at their expected intercept coordinates. I know the Allied SigInt isn't what ULTRA was, but have you found it useful for identifying intercept coordinates or patrol zones?

< Message edited by Chickenboy -- 1/1/2013 6:03:23 PM >


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RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 1/1/2013 6:44:49 PM   
Bullwinkle58


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February 1, 1942

Jumpin' Jeepers!

A new month and new surprises.

1) North of Lanchow the Japanese, presumably with paratroops, suddenly own Kiuchian. An interesting developement I really did not anticipate. Another artifact of long AI play is not fully appreciating paratroops, either used against (the AI rarely does), or needed for offense. In the long column of Chinese cities from Lanchow to the Soviet border only Urumchi has an Allied presence, a medium brigade. Japan could march the paratroops aided by recon, or they could fly more regular troops into Kiuchian and go both north and south. About 500ish free VP are available in the river valley if he wants to pay garrisoning. I do not know now if he knows about the defenders of Urumchi yet. I also don't know if he'll fly in, come south at Lanchow and north at the same time. Any China attacker wants Lanchow for the fuel and supplies. The garrison there is not bad, but it won't hold against a multi-division assault either.

2) Mini-sub and an I-boat come into Pearl Harbor again. What was that about historic sub play?

3) Forts hit Johnson at night for minor airfield damage. It appears the heavy concentration of surface ships is not in port. Argonaut lays six mines and heads home.

4) Heavy attacks on Bataan with sweeps as well. P-40s further attrited. I would think he'd want to get the PI over with and release the quite large stacks there for duty in NG, Java, and Timor. Happy to sitzkrieg as long as Japan agrees.

5) Morning Air attack on Praboemoelih , at 48,92

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 45 NM, estimated altitude 9,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 17 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M2 Zero x 15
G3M2 Nell x 25

No Japanese losses

Airbase hits 11
Airbase supply hits 7
Runway hits 48

No Allied troops here. This may have been a probe in prep for paratroops here as well. It would isolate Oosthaven from Palembang and might fit with a pincer which included Djambi. OTOH, only paratroops and a response from Palembang could be mounted quickly. Paratroops plus a landing at Oosthaven would also make sense. Force Z is 2-days from Oosthaven though, and there are mines and subs in the hex. A TF carrying 2 Aircobra units and a B-26 unit is at most 2-days from Oosthaven as well, ultimate destination Palembang. No inbound landing force seen, but many of my patrol aircraft are busy moving an RAF HQ out of Singers to Palembang. Stay tuned.

6) Third load of 1000-ea supply in and out of Singers by Fast Trans. from Palembang. Singers at 97% of Forts 4 and 17,000 supply. Heavy saturation bombing every turn which hurts, but costs him as well. Today:

Japanese aircraft
Ki-21-IIa Sally x 45

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 20 damaged
Ki-21-IIa Sally: 1 destroyed by flak


Allied ground losses:
52 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 6 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

7) B-26 strike from Batavia hits Djambi oil from extreme range and does poorly. Lose six planes for no damage. Escort from Palembang did not form up as B-26s passed by. Could do better if B-26s were at Palembang, but that's risky. I wanted him to know B-26s were in the theater, so mission accomplished. Arg.

8) Kendari hit hard again, but still no sign of the TF seen two days ago. Soerbaja surface raiders hunting near Kendari today, but head home tomorrow. Have heavy search on southern Borneo coast in case they turned right. But so far no hits.

9) Thousands of Chinese troops streaming into Mandalay each day now. Bombing still on bases to the south. Moved one AVG unit to Mandalay and one to Lashio as a CAP trap. I don't think he has recon assets which can see all the way to Lashio yet. If he sends unescorted Bettys again it should be fun. AVG has many 70+ pilots, and 1/3 of it is in P-40Es now. Second chunk about three days away from upgrade being possible.

10) USS Colorado runs sub gauntlet and gets into Pearl. Nevada out of yard. NM and Mississippi two days out or so. Idaho about a week. Need more PPs than I thought to buy Americal at SF. They will go to Pearl ASAP. All PPs being banked for that purpose.



< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 1/1/2013 7:49:52 PM >


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The Moose

(in reply to Bullwinkle58)
Post #: 539
RE: Nothing Up My Sleeve: Magical Moose Tricks--Bullwin... - 1/1/2013 6:54:00 PM   
Bullwinkle58


Posts: 8321
Joined: 2/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

In re-reading Blair, I'm also struck with the incredibly actionable ULTRA intel that the submariners received. With the exception of about 4 months in early 1943, the Americans were able to read the Japanese mail with incredible accuracy. Several skippers (jokingly) complained to Lockwood that the Japanese convoys were 15 minutes behind schedule at their expected intercept coordinates. I know the Allied SigInt isn't what ULTRA was, but have you found it useful for identifying intercept coordinates or patrol zones?


Not a bit so far. About 60-70% of Allied sigint is "LCU X is at this location." About 20% is "Large amount of radio transmissions at x,y." If this is a sea hex you don't have eyes on it's a ship, or more likely an IJN sub. About 5% is "base X has YYYY troops." About 15-25% is "Unit X is preparing to attack YY." Less than 1% is "Junyo sighted at x,y."

The prep intel is the most valuable of the common types to me. As you say, the quality and quantity is nothing like historic ULTRA. If it were the devs would have had to neuter sub patrol volume in other ways, such as imposing R&R delays or something. There would be carnage otherwise.

< Message edited by Bullwinkle58 -- 1/1/2013 6:56:28 PM >


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The Moose

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