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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222)

 
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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/19/2012 10:03:51 PM   
Speedy

 

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Dne/Zap area:

Desperate attacks by 16th Army force the mixed Fascist forces back over the Dnepr:




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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 7:50:33 AM   
Speedy

 

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A snapshot of the Production Pools:

Moved 20 x Vehicle from Kharkov and 2 x ARM from Bryansk.

SU battle stats: 6 x retreat, 3 x held




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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 1:39:18 PM   
Speedy

 

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.

< Message edited by Speedy -- 9/20/2012 1:43:23 PM >


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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 1:41:56 PM   
Speedy

 

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Turn 9.

Start of SU Turn.

Geezo. This guy is an immense Axis player. Viertually nothing goes wrong for him and he knows his sh* down to a T. I thought I was a decent player but this is something else....I'll post the pics then I'll be thinking whether to carry on. It's not being defeatest it's pragmatic and utterly aware of the futility of this carrying on and wasting time. To me it's looking like my 3rd defeat out of 20. I have no tangible force left, no space to run to and no option to form defences since I'm totally on the hop...discuss:

LG holds. Weee




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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 1:44:23 PM   
Speedy

 

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Ilmen....11 Divisons worth dead. No reserves to be able to form any defence up here:




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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 1:46:01 PM   
Speedy

 

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Vyazma:




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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 1:47:26 PM   
Speedy

 

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Bryansk: 6 x ARM locked, 12 x Div's toast:




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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 1:49:11 PM   
Speedy

 

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South: 16 x Div's dead:




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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 1:50:28 PM   
Speedy

 

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Losses:




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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 1:58:22 PM   
Speedy

 

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OOB:

I'll lose 540,000 men in these pockets (including LG (425,000 excl LG).....

If I hear anymore stuff from Pelton saying the Axis are nerfed in 41 he's gonna get it

All these units that have encircled mine are near the end of their supply columns (30-40 SP's)...you wouldn't have thought it.

Problem I have now is I have nowhere to run (without losing VITAL industry) which means either way I'm screwed. If I stay long enough to evac it I'll have no army as it can't fight, attack or move more than 10 miles a day without needing to lay down. If I run I won't have the industry to be able to fight back in later years anyway.

This is very impressive by Saper. Never played against anything like it. Thoroughly outplayed. Think I'll be taking a break after this game and going back to the drawing board and re-setting my mind set from being a good player to an average one at best!




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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 2:08:01 PM   
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Well in my mind, every one of these recent encirlements have been telegraphed for the last two turns. Perhaps Sapper has been fortunate in his rolls overall, but you have been handing him divisions on a plate by allowing him encirclements N-S like this. You need to stop thinking about establishing permanent lines this or next turn, you do not have the Army for that, and start thinking delaying actions and retreating, sacrificing the minimum number of divisions, in order to establish lines around turn 12-14 and then around turn 17-18 and then just before blizzard, retreat, rinse and repeat. Your turn will come.

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 2:20:06 PM   
Speedy

 

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Problem is I have no place to retreat. If I do I will lose all the Industry in Stalino Region let alone all around Moscow. If I do that it's game over anyway!

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 2:58:03 PM   
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You fell behind the evac curve by not focusing on the essentials early on, Speedy. The HI could've waited.

For example: I evacuate the Poltava armaments as early as turn 3. You can strip the entire south up to Voronezh and Rostov by turn 10. You shouldn't ever be in a situation on turn 7+ where you feel compelled to cling to the Dnepr due to factory evacuations. That's just inviting disaster. You ought to be in a position to fall back to the eastern Ukraine as early as turn 5 if need be.

I write off all factories west of the Dnepr and focus on target denial from the getgo. That way, you can run when you have to. The Dnepr line is untenable past turn 5 against a good Axis player.

You mismanaged Leningrad very badly imo. You defended too far forward in the south. I think defending the Smolensk landbridge is mostly a mistake nowadays, too, against a good Axis player. The first real line of defense is Rzhev-Vzayma-Bryansk. The north needs a heavy commitment early on and that means the landbridge is merely a brief delaying action by the remnants of Western Front, with all the quality stuff and reserve armies rushed to the Pskov-Vitebsk area.



< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 9/20/2012 2:59:52 PM >


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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 2:59:08 PM   
Apollo11


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Hi all,

Defeatism is forbidden!

Stand up and fight!!!



Please try not to surrender - it would really be interesting to see how this would be in 1942/1943..


Leo "Apollo11"

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 3:00:09 PM   
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Leo, I'd be throwing the towel here myself and looking for a replay. This isn't defeatism. Speedy is getting thrashed badly, and he's merely being realistic.

This game on the threshold of snowballing out of control. The losses are just too high for this stage of the game. If the Red Army ever falls below 4 million you're in deep sh*t. The Red Army simply doesn't have the in game ability to absorb these kinds of losses. Replacements are too low and units come back from the deadpile too slowly.



< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 9/20/2012 3:18:57 PM >


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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 3:18:40 PM   
Speedy

 

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Indeed. I agree with your senitments Flavio. I'm quite annoyed too to be honest as I rated myself as a decent player but this is an eye opener to say the least! It's likely I'll be moving on from WitE as I'm not enjoying this in the slightest and certain negative elements of the game are coming to the fore for me right now - the ability for the Panzers to run on Oxygen and the total inability of the SU to fight in 41 to name 2 of them (but hey the Axis have been nerfed in 41 right Pelton/ ). No doubt these are at the forefront of my mind as I've been thoroughly outplayed here!

Leo - have to be realistic. What's the point in spending another 400-800 hours of my life on something that is not enjoyable, has 0 chance of a positive outcome coupled with the obvious downward spiral I'd be on - can't run as lose industry = lose men = not enough men to defend = no decent blizzard offensive = stronger Axis = appaling losses in 42 = no decent forces = have to spend AP's to make forces etc etc etc.

I'll think on it for the rest of the day but it's likely I'll be surrendering in only my 2nd game (3rd loss was against Walloc which although not played out would have been a defeat by me) and moving on to focus on AE and other ventures for at least the short term.

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 3:20:26 PM   
Speedy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx
This game on the threshold of snowballing out of control.



Exactly how I see it....I KNOW how 42 will go. Saper is a damn good player and my losses from Grinding alone would far outweigh replacements. A crazy situation for the SU to be in if you think about it (thinking on RL here).

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 4:52:02 PM   
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedy

Leo - have to be realistic. What's the point in spending another 400-800 hours of my life on something that is not enjoyable, has 0 chance of a positive outcome coupled with the obvious downward spiral I'd be on - can't run as lose industry = lose men = not enough men to defend = no decent blizzard offensive = stronger Axis = appaling losses in 42 = no decent forces = have to spend AP's to make forces etc etc etc.




I agree with Leo - Stand up and Fight! Or in this case Stand up and Run! (intelligently of course :))

In the end, it is your time and your life, but your Army is still 4.3 million strong and the game is clearly not over at this point. From what I have seen, things do not snow ball until you get down to the 3-3.5 million mark. You still have a mud and blizzard period in which to recover. It sounds to me like you want to throw in the towel because things are really not going your way enough, an accusation usually thrown at Axis players if they are not *winning* in 1941. :o)


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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 5:49:36 PM   
Speedy

 

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Disagree. It's not about throwing the towel in because it's not working well. Think about it: I'll be down to 3.7M men once the pockets are gone.

If I retreat I'll lose 80 x ARM, 5 x Vehicle (+ HI) this is if I focus just on evac'ing Moscow AND IF I manage to fully evac knowing there's a massive gap where AGN Panzers can race towards Moscow....You want me to play knowing it will be a no hope and no chance of victory game that will be even more lopsided than the Kamil game?

If I don't run I'll lose another 1-1.5M me + about 1/2 the Industry above.....

Surely you can see that will snowball?

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 5:49:59 PM   
Speedy

 

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What do others think?

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 6:30:54 PM   
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Sometimes you don't know where you are at as a player until you play someone who is really, really good. It sounds like you didn't see this coming as far as what he was going to be able to do. I was shocked to see what happen to Tarhunnas (who I feel is a really good Russian) in getting thrashed by Michael. It can be demoralizing for sure, but I am sure you can also go back and look at some of the errors of your ways to improve for next time.

If you are not having fun with it and feel it is hopeless, then I would "shake" the other person's hand and tell them "good game". He played a great game.

After that, take a break for a bit if you feel you need to. I did for a long time and I am still not back to the point where I really care to invest the time to play another person with the game in its current state. I do have a AI game going and I find that much more satisfying at this point in time until perhaps some things are addressed with the game to make it more playable between players.

Part of the issue with the game at this point between two players is the skill level, especially for the Germans, really matters. Trying to play balance it is going to be a impossible task because what may be balanced between two good players would probably be broken between two inexperienced players or two master players.

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 6:33:10 PM   
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Zonso, after these pockets are digested, the army is going to fall well below 4 million, and the front is swiss cheese.

It's going to snowball. It looks very much indeed like what happened to Tarhunnas at a similar stage. Pointless to continue.

Speedy made some very big mistakes in this game, and they aren't the sort of mistakes that can be recovered from now. He needs a fresh start.

< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 9/20/2012 6:39:31 PM >


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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 6:47:30 PM   
Walloc

 

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Well Speedy,

First
quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedy
I'll think on it for the rest of the day but it's likely I'll be surrendering in only my 2nd game (3rd loss was against Walloc which although not played out would have been a defeat by me) and moving on to focus on AE and other ventures for at least the short term.


I dont think we call it it a win by me considering cuircumstances. A draw at best, if not a loss to me.

About this game. No, u not going to win and not only that u wont have chance. Seeing from sapers game vs kamil doing what he did in that i'd even say he could even improve the start of his 42 offensive, but he generally have the right ideas. Manpower is balanced such that u have a 41 as u have. GHC can get by with 2-1 to 3-1 casulty rate and come out ahead in 42 and 43. Nothing suggests that Saper wont do that kinda grinding in 42. So yeah this game will be most likely a excercise in futility. In a long game losing arm would be a problem but in this game its going to be all about manpower so lost X arms is not that big of a deal. Reality of the game is as balanced atm is the thing the russian side simpistic said had the most of aka men, is generally the thing that is the easiest target by german side and therefor will create the highest shortfalls in vs a good german. U get around half of the mobilitized manpower compared to history plus ur disabled returns are lower too.
Thats not the same as im saying it should be doubled right off the bat, just pointing out. That the thing simplistic said the russian had an abundance of, they dont have in game. It might be the hardest resource to come by, depending on how the game goes.

About leave the game all together. Well, its ur decision, but i think there is alot u can learn from this game. The style u played against other might work in many cases but when u meet the better german players there are many thing u should have done differently. U IMHO made mistakes in way of defending from turn 2 and way up until now. That has snowballed. Mistakes that could have been avoided by judging from his turn 1. Ok ill have to do this very differently than "normally". U defend way to much forward from turn 2 and until now. Its this behavior that creates the pockets. U cant stop a good german by trying to have lines in the face of pz/inf. U need to back up every turn leaving a buffer zone to drain the first of his MP. At leased make sure his inf and pz where together cant coorporate. The buffer zone on turns where he has near full fuel and i havent seen u use the soft factor fuel indicator. Tho i dont know if u use it. Needs to be significant = especially so on turn 2 and 3 in AGS area.
Im not saying it ez and we all know the issues of the logistic system or it failings rather, but saying there is nothing u can do it going overboard IMHO. Alot of the problems u inadvertedly have created for ur self. Stuff that could be altered in another game.

I agree with Flav about HI. U focused way to much on it too early. I might not quite agree with his assesment on not evacing the arm west of the Dnieper. If playing with random weather u cant ever know when u get a "free" turn. So IMO its best to evac what is in the most danger from the enemy first. While not 100% correct. An arm is arm u only have the RR u have. So whether u lose 3 at Bryansk or 3 at Krivoirog doesnt matter. You can never can go back and evac some thing u lost if u get a free weather turn later.
There also minor things like evacing 15 T-34 from Kharkov. When in this kinda trouble u evac that type of fac with 1 only. It will grow back eventually and generally u have T-34s to spare. Waste of RR space that could have been used on arms.
How much of the LG facs do u evac? there is really no reason to evac more than 1 of the growing back type factories, see my evac guide for more.

A stern look,

Rasmus

< Message edited by Walloc -- 9/20/2012 7:33:35 PM >

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 8:30:00 PM   
Speedy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Sometimes you don't know where you are at as a player until you play someone who is really, really good. It sounds like you didn't see this coming as far as what he was going to be able to do. I was shocked to see what happen to Tarhunnas (who I feel is a really good Russian) in getting thrashed by Michael. It can be demoralizing for sure, but I am sure you can also go back and look at some of the errors of your ways to improve for next time.

If you are not having fun with it and feel it is hopeless, then I would "shake" the other person's hand and tell them "good game". He played a great game.

After that, take a break for a bit if you feel you need to. I did for a long time and I am still not back to the point where I really care to invest the time to play another person with the game in its current state. I do have a AI game going and I find that much more satisfying at this point in time until perhaps some things are addressed with the game to make it more playable between players.

Part of the issue with the game at this point between two players is the skill level, especially for the Germans, really matters. Trying to play balance it is going to be a impossible task because what may be balanced between two good players would probably be broken between two inexperienced players or two master players.


Really good post Klydon. Appreciate your thoughts. I've played other good players before though (JAMiAM, BigAnorak etc) and not lost and being a tester 'knew stuff' but this is a real eye opener and is positive to be honest as you take a lot out of it.

It is time for a break to re-think and re-assess tactics and I'll best do that by playing other stuff then gradually getting back into WitE in due course.

Thanks for the other thoughts guys. I've decided I will offer Saper my resignation BUT if he wants to carry on and achieve a total victory I will grant him that. I don't like giving in or surrendering but the situation as explained above is pretty obvious.

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 9:14:41 PM   
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I think I'd be raising the white flag at this point as well, or at least discussing the possibility of resignation with my opponent.
The only thing you may want to consider is that he had a lot of difficulty against Kamil's blizzard offensive, losing about 25 divisions I think, so he may be relatively weak defensively.If you're a strong offensive player this could mean you still have a chance of a draw at least if you can avoid losing too many more divisions this year (and next).This would mean running in the South and focusing mainly on holding Moscow this year.
On the whole though if you feel that you are mismatched it's better for both of you if you quit sooner rather than later.

< Message edited by timmyab -- 9/20/2012 9:17:51 PM >

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 9:54:05 PM   
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Klydon

Sometimes you don't know where you are at as a player until you play someone who is really, really good. It sounds like you didn't see this coming as far as what he was going to be able to do. I was shocked to see what happen to Tarhunnas (who I feel is a really good Russian) in getting thrashed by Michael. It can be demoralizing for sure, but I am sure you can also go back and look at some of the errors of your ways to improve for next time.

If you are not having fun with it and feel it is hopeless, then I would "shake" the other person's hand and tell them "good game". He played a great game.

After that, take a break for a bit if you feel you need to. I did for a long time and I am still not back to the point where I really care to invest the time to play another person with the game in its current state. I do have a AI game going and I find that much more satisfying at this point in time until perhaps some things are addressed with the game to make it more playable between players.

Part of the issue with the game at this point between two players is the skill level, especially for the Germans, really matters. Trying to play balance it is going to be a impossible task because what may be balanced between two good players would probably be broken between two inexperienced players or two master players.


Really good post Klydon. Appreciate your thoughts. I've played other good players before though (JAMiAM, BigAnorak etc) and not lost and being a tester 'knew stuff' but this is a real eye opener and is positive to be honest as you take a lot out of it.

It is time for a break to re-think and re-assess tactics and I'll best do that by playing other stuff then gradually getting back into WitE in due course.

Thanks for the other thoughts guys. I've decided I will offer Saper my resignation BUT if he wants to carry on and achieve a total victory I will grant him that. I don't like giving in or surrendering but the situation as explained above is pretty obvious.


I think this is a normal process as the game has gone along. As patches and tactics of both sides have evolved, what used to work for tactics may not work that well anymore if at all and new ideas and tactics have to be discovered and developed.

This was always one of my concerns when a game (not necessarily WITE) underwent constant change and sometimes it was in knee-jerk reaction to some tactics a particular side came up with when all that was needed was some time for the other side to come up with some counter tactics to defeat the new tactics. A tough balance act for sure.

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 10:05:17 PM   
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A very good point Klydon. The stuff I used here worked fine against JAMiAM and I ended up in decent shape in 42 at historical lines. Obv the engine and the game has changed since then. Let alone the user base and knowledge. Thats great IMO and how it should be. People should learn, develop and improve. Spoken like a true capitalist

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 10:24:29 PM   
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From a standpoint of industry, I'm not clear where you are but I can weigh in with some info you may find helpful.

On vehicles, I have 80 in my game with farfarer and seem to be holding my own. That is supporting nearly 40 tank and mechanized corps through much of 1943 and into 1944.

You said that you pulled 20 vehicles from Kharkov. You should have another 80 or so close to out of Saper's reach even without Moscow and that would give you around 100 vehicle factories. That should suffice.

On HI, I have 119 in my PBEM game and have felt the effects of some supply shortfalls. You showed waaaay over that in your last post and I assume casual evacs from here on out would leave you with adequate supplies.

Arms is where things are fuzzy. You can get by with between 310 and 320. Where do you figure to lose 80 arms in the near future?

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RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 11:11:04 PM   
Flaviusx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: timmyab

I think I'd be raising the white flag at this point as well, or at least discussing the possibility of resignation with my opponent.
The only thing you may want to consider is that he had a lot of difficulty against Kamil's blizzard offensive, losing about 25 divisions I think, so he may be relatively weak defensively.If you're a strong offensive player this could mean you still have a chance of a draw at least if you can avoid losing too many more divisions this year (and next).This would mean running in the South and focusing mainly on holding Moscow this year.
On the whole though if you feel that you are mismatched it's better for both of you if you quit sooner rather than later.


The thing I got out of that blizzard counteroffensive is how little it really mattered. Kamil socked him good. A couple of dozen divisions in the dead pile, practically an early Stalingrad.

It just didn't matter. The Red Army was so weak going into 42 that even an outstanding blizzard counteroffensive wasn't enough to bail it out. The numbers just were not there. Kamil had a sub 6 million man army in June of 42, and in fact has never been able to get it over 6 million. (To be sure, Kamil made some big mistakes in the south, but even so.)

The replacement situation is such now that if you get behind the curve early on, it's extremely difficult to ever catch up.

_____________________________

WitE Alpha Tester

(in reply to timmyab)
Post #: 119
RE: Speedy vs Saper 222 (no Saper 222) - 9/20/2012 11:59:03 PM   
Walloc

 

Posts: 3032
Joined: 10/30/2006
From: Denmark
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

The thing I got out of that blizzard counteroffensive is how little it really mattered. Kamil socked him good. A couple of dozen divisions in the dead pile, practically an early Stalingrad.

It just didn't matter. The Red Army was so weak going into 42 that even an outstanding blizzard counteroffensive wasn't enough to bail it out. The numbers just were not there. Kamil had a sub 6 million man army in June of 42, and in fact has never been able to get it over 6 million. (To be sure, Kamil made some big mistakes in the south, but even so.)

The replacement situation is such now that if you get behind the curve early on, it's extremely difficult to ever catch up.

´

Well "problem" is that where as SHC sides gets less than historic replacements. In the first year germans gets around 1 mio men more than their historic numbers. So if u keep moral up in the core units, losing 20 divs or lets say 300k men isnt it self some thing that would make he german OOB go any where near real 42 numbers. So losing 20 div doesnt have to curb ur offensivly capabilties in 42. So if SHC side losses in 41 leaving them at "historic" numbers and GHC is not consistantly but in effect are "hard" coded to have well above a 42 OOB. Well then the balance ofc swings. Under those cuircumstances GHC can afford losses from the blizzard much more than the SHC can afford it. U need a larger than historic SHC army in 42, not that this is a supprise to any one to cope with the larger german army. Ppl alrdy know this just maybe just not exactly why.
Not that we dont see games where that 1 mio extra germans doesnt matter any bit. Those where they fail to do the damage to SHC in 41 and fall into defensive mode. In that case 1 mio doesnt matter much if they are spred out over 1700km front, its where u can gather them into a schwerpunkt and use them offensivly that u see the value of them.
That said while german reinforcements and replacements are around that 1 mio over historic numbers so tend their losses to be too. Tho in general from looking at OOBs and losses from AARs here to be in the region of 200-300k. Leaving u up around 750k'ish.

Kind regards,

Rasmus

< Message edited by Walloc -- 9/21/2012 12:40:18 AM >

(in reply to Flaviusx)
Post #: 120
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