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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert

 
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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/26/2012 2:18:46 PM   
olivier34

 

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Sept 20
Krasnodar has to be taken in a week. In four days the 50th infantry division has been abble to cross the Kuban river west of the town, resist to an attack an move 10 more kms. The 22nd cross behind.




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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/26/2012 2:25:18 PM   
olivier34

 

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Sept 20
Between Maikop and Armavir
The XXIV face a wall of soviets (they have taken this position 4 days ago) but I don't launch an attack. Let's wait to have the Artillery at full and some cards available.





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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/26/2012 2:32:37 PM   
olivier34

 

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Sept 20th
From Pyatigorsk to Atschikuvak
The soviet 24th army has been reinforce by the first mechanised corps...but I am optimistic in this sector. A strong attack (3000 soviets died for only 200 german men, thanks to the Artillery) has been conducted. The Kuba river is crossed. A little south some motorised elements cross without a fight too.




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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/26/2012 4:26:30 PM   
olivier34

 

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Sept 20 Last screenshot. Sector between Bulmkta and Samtani.
Kleist 1st panzer was reduce to one corps with only one panzer division, the 16th. The 16th has launch a counter attack (panzer drive). The goal was to scare the soviet forces that were beginning to surround the III corps. It works, they withdraw.
I attach the IV corps to the 1st panzer. This sector is finally very important. The IVth is reinforce by a motorised division. All the JU52 are now on the direct command of Von Kleist. It seems that the forces in front of us are not so organise. Some are from the 57A, others from the 24th or the 40th or under the command of the southern front HQ.
The IV corps should be abble to reach the rail line 50 kms east by the end of the month.




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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/26/2012 5:32:48 PM   
Bonners


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I think you need to get your ju52s back under control of OKH. From my understanding they need to draw supply from the command they are under to deliver it. Kleist will not have much excess supply so the max the jus can deliver will not be enough. OKH will have more excess so they will be able to deliver more. Experimented in my game with putting the jus under army command and was wondering why the level of supply they were delivering was so rubbish.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/26/2012 5:57:10 PM   
olivier34

 

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right Bonners. But they will have no HQs bonus...maybe this is not so important. I will attach them to OKH the very next turn.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/26/2012 7:10:10 PM   
LiquidSky


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They won't deliver any supply if the units they are trying to supply are not isolated. Basically, if you try it will just put the supply back under the OKH.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/26/2012 8:51:10 PM   
olivier34

 

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you can check the details and see the amount of supply delivered. I think that I was abble to deliver something to my units that are not isolated but in the yellow zone...I will report that the next turn.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/26/2012 9:24:08 PM   
Bonners


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quote:

ORIGINAL: olivier34

right Bonners. But they will have no HQs bonus...maybe this is not so important. I will attach them to OKH the very next turn.


Yeah, dont think there is any way around that for the transports as they wont have enough range (especially in bad weather conditions I think!) if you keep them within HQ range of OKH.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/27/2012 12:46:35 PM   
olivier34

 

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September 22
We attack again the 5TA. 10 days ago I was pessimistic in this sector. I had forgotten how powerful the german army is. This offensive could be accomplish under the command of Erhard Raus. With Von Paulus, the 6A would have defend (better?) but slowly would have lost the attrition war that the soviets wanted here.






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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/27/2012 1:01:17 PM   
olivier34

 

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September 24th (turn 45) Clear
I open the turn and I feel good . Only good news. Red arrows on the above picture, a counter attack of the 40A but it failed.
Much better news, the soviets have withdraw from Frolowo. It seems that the 5TA can't counter attack . My artillery is ready...I may kill or capture a lot of those soviets this turn.
A great news, Krasnodar is an open city now. The 50th infantry division had began to surround the city and resisted to an attack. Keunert had to decide to evacuate or not. Maybe he has won some prestige pts and he had not to hold the city anymore ?? Anyway, I was not sure to take the city in time and I would have lost a lot of men. Let's grab those 8 prestige pts without a fight
Sceenshot before my moves : The weather is clear. we see that the IV corps had advance the previous turn with the 1st romanian armor division leading the attack. The soviets could only retreat...don't think that they will be abble to stop the IV corps to reach the rail line.
Little south, LII corps. The 3rd panzer has been attack (one rgt had to withdraw, 500 men lost, 50 trucks some guns). Von Manstein is in command of this corps and he has 48 pps now.




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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/27/2012 1:35:50 PM   
olivier34

 

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September 24th after my moves
Maikop is taken . By the Wiking division (The SS panzers are really strong. I have played a few cards to ask some SS reinforcement).
The soviets are in trouble here. They will escape but I have cut the roads. They will have to hide in the woods and mountains.





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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/27/2012 1:49:48 PM   
olivier34

 

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September 24th
3th and 23th panzers rush toward Mozdok (Von Manstein freedom of action card played). They kill or capture 1 500 soviets and suffer very little losses.




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< Message edited by olivier34 -- 9/27/2012 2:31:25 PM >

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/27/2012 2:35:35 PM   
olivier34

 

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Sept 24,
The Italian cavalry division reach the rail line and cut it. IV corps advance 30 kms.




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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/27/2012 2:38:38 PM   
olivier34

 

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Sept 24th,
The 5TA HQ has been attack. Part of the 40A is almost surrounded. A few more days and this could be a total victory here for the 6A.




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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/29/2012 8:01:01 PM   
olivier34

 

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October 4th Cleat weather but snow has fallen.
North map. 6A has stop his offensive the 26th. 4th of october, a panzer corps moves west.
High command has given some new objectives, all in the south. This new offensive has the goal to shorten the front line a bit for the coming winter.




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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/29/2012 8:09:11 PM   
olivier34

 

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October the 4th
South, a lot of soviets have been captured or killed. I try to understand what happen. The cut of the rail line south of Astrakan has isolated all the south soviet front from thier supply source. The consequences have been dramatic. Second thing, the Wiking division breakthrough the 25th has had a huge consequence too.
Looking at the stats, the soviets are around 500 000 men. We will see how the red army can recover and if she will be abble to launch a winter offensive...hope so.
I will have to reorganize my armys very soon. I spend 94 pps to get 20 FW 190...4,7 pps the plane




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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/30/2012 10:30:50 AM   
olivier34

 

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October 10th
Seems that the game will be over soon. I have check but if Baku falls with Stalingrad in my hands, this will result in an instant win...I am pushing my units toward Baku and Poti...too bad that the soviet front did collapse in the south. It would have been very difficult and intesting to drive toward those goals with some soviet forces in front of me. That could be a very interesting scenario to build...
The previous turns were clear but we had some snow and now the snow is replace by mud. (The panzers can advance only 30 kms)
I am looking at a map right now to check how the germans did in the caucase. I see that they were unable to cut this rail line from Astrakan to Grozny but Rostov falls much early than in our game. Keunert has hold Rostov a long time. I had to do a huge move around it and I remember telling myself that if I was the soviet player, I may withdraw from Rostov before it's to late...
Let's do a what if :
What if some soviet forces had been on my way when I have cross the Steppes toward the Caspienne sea ? Only a few of them will have stop my advance. You have to take a town and wait 5 turns before the structural damage of the town are repair so that it can be work has a logistical center...I think that with two or three soviet divisions I will have lost two weeks before reaching the rail line..
When the soviet armys defending Rostov has began to retreat, they have been chase and could not fortified really on a new line, specially in the plains. The mountains area could have provide a natural line of defense.





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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/30/2012 10:35:46 AM   
olivier34

 

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I follow the rail line from Krasnodar toward Poti to take this city. Same here, a few soviet forces could slow down my advance. Anyway, you have to wait to have the rail line repaired...and I ask Keunert if he thinks that the soviets could cut it when they want by debarking a unit along the coast. Again, it would have been very tough to take Poti in time...




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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/30/2012 1:24:29 PM   
Keunert


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Looking back i found at least three huge mistakes, Rostow wasn't one of them. In fact i was pretty proud on how Rostow played out. It gave me a prestige boost and i hope it reduced yours. I bought trains before the evacuation to be sure that i had enough strategic movement to rail everything back once i left my positions. it was close but it played like i hoped for. The forces were sent behind the Kuban river and they got enough time to dig in properly.

My first mistake: i did not care about the supply center south. i chose not to save for it when i was swimming in pp. The consequences should have been to retreat most units to the rail line / tiblisi / baku / Mozdok area and not in front of Maikop.

My second mistake: the loss of 3 or 4 armies, including all HQ and fast units around end of July in the center. i could have prevented this if i had made a realistic assessment of the situation: no railroads, not enough troops, a fast ennemy with air superiority = save artillery, aa, tanks and HQ and let the infantry die. Those units could have been the backbone of a newly established front between Astrachan and Briansk (Rail connection). Instead i decided to do a fighting retreat and lost all.

Third mistake: around turn 38 i watched how your SS troops weren't able to push back my defenders, at the same time i was able to isolate and kill some units in front of the rail connection and counterattacks on your armor proved to be quite deadly to your spearheads in the south: i believed for the first time that you were running an exhausted army low on supply. i saw your Ju's bringing supply to forward positions and came to the conclusion that your units in front of the rail were too far away from your own rail net and would stay out of, therefore i only slowly reinforced this area. This confidence was further supported by the growing troop total. i felt i was getting stronger with every turn. this triggered a few mistakes: i did not check retreat routes down south. I wrote on turn 41 that your southern offensive felt weak... i should have reatreated 47 & 18 A that very turn towards Maikop

In the middle of all this came the no step back order. i didn't pay much attention first. but every small town you conquered reduced my prestige and made it drop to zero within a week.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/30/2012 3:43:37 PM   
olivier34

 

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That makes sence. You have even bought trains to evacuate Rostov ! I have not try to blow bridges with my bombers, only one time to cut the rail line that your troops were using to evacuate Rostov. Did this bother you a little ?
Not taking Rostov made me lose 8 prestige pts and the most important made me lose a lot of time before I could finally advance in the Caucase. My 11th army (Von Manstein) was stuck in front of the city. The only assault against a urban hex failed...Holding Rostov was a good one. I decided to leave a lot of troops in front of the city so that you had to keep a lot of troops yourself to hold it. I knew I could not take it in time by a frontal assault even with the "gamble card" that Von Manstein has.
How many prestige points did you get ? (I was hoping that when you get your prestiges pts, you would evacuate the city. Are you rewarded several times, at different dates ?)
I just check the prestige pts. You had 42 of them around the 20th of August and me only 20 ! Why did you spend your prestige pts ? Keeping them gives you more pps per turn.
What are the conditions to receive This event "no step back order" for the soviet ?

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/30/2012 6:42:08 PM   
LiquidSky


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If the Axis own any of:

(69,54) Rostov
(75,36) Millerowo
(65,6) Voronezh
(104,36) Stalingrad
(64,78) Krasnador

And the Strategic position is 0.

Then it checks to see if you loss any vp's since the last turn. If so, you lose prestige.

Since the city list is pretty much for certain, it really comes down to your strategic position.

Your strategic position drops if:

Your current vp's are 5 greater (or more) then your average vp loss (in the victory report),
AND you pass a 22% random check.

So it seems to me that sooner or later, the Soviets will suffer a No-Retreat order and suffer for it...

_____________________________

What's the sense of sending $2 million missiles to hit a $10 tent that's empty?

— President George W. Bush, Oval Office meeting, 13 September 2001.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 9/30/2012 8:17:37 PM   
Keunert


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I got two times prestige from Rostow, the first time 20 points and later about 16 points. Holding to Rostow meant holding you without much losses. I couldn't do this anywhere else. I spend the prestige points by misclicking on the cash in prestige card once.

The 'no step back' order came some time after losing Stalingrad.

< Message edited by Keunert -- 10/1/2012 9:24:23 AM >

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 10/1/2012 5:58:22 PM   
olivier34

 

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A very good thing to hold Rostov that long. 36 pps, it is huge.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 10/2/2012 9:30:07 AM   
Vic


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Did you guys feel the Soviets were getting enough reinforcements to hold the axis?
Personally i feel (also in my own experiences) the Soviets could use some extra 20K infantry a month during July,Aug,Sep,Oct. Just to give them that little extra.

Let me know your thoughts please. And thanks again for the great AAR. Its not only fun to read, but it is also useful in fine tuning the game.

Best,
Vic

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 10/2/2012 2:06:59 PM   
rominet


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Vic

Did you guys feel the Soviets were getting enough reinforcements to hold the axis?
Personally i feel (also in my own experiences) the Soviets could use some extra 20K infantry a month during July,Aug,Sep,Oct. Just to give them that little extra.

Let me know your thoughts please. And thanks again for the great AAR. Its not only fun to read, but it is also useful in fine tuning the game.

Best,
Vic


IMHO, a total of 80K extra troops for Russia is not enough to give any chance to the russian player to hold after september.
But i think any additional russian replacement should come from september to december and not before.
The Axis may have a chance to break through the russian lines in july and august.
And from a historical point of view, it took many weeks to the Soviet High command to understand that the german offensive in the south was the real one's and not a diversion of a great offensive towards Moscow.
They really began to send a lot of troops in the south from september and not from july.

I think 40K or 50K troops in addition per month from september to november or december should be better.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 10/2/2012 2:28:22 PM   
Keunert


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it is really hard to say Vic. In retrospect i think it would have been possible for Olivier to break through in the south even if i played better. And by breakthrough i think of Olivier taking Tiblissi and cutting off my entire southern front. if he then moves everything north Olivier would have been able to break through there too. so i tend to agree that soviet reiforcements should be higher from september on.

another problem is the low german loss. Oliver had something around 100'000 men lost. this is too low at this stage of the campaign. i have the feeling that some german commanders just have to many and too good cards at hand. even in the best of circumstances Olivier managed to push me out if cities or forts behind rivers without much losses. that's quite a contrast to DC1: a well positioned unit could really do harm.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 10/2/2012 2:38:32 PM   
Bonners


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quote:

ORIGINAL: rominet


quote:

ORIGINAL: Vic

Did you guys feel the Soviets were getting enough reinforcements to hold the axis?
Personally i feel (also in my own experiences) the Soviets could use some extra 20K infantry a month during July,Aug,Sep,Oct. Just to give them that little extra.

Let me know your thoughts please. And thanks again for the great AAR. Its not only fun to read, but it is also useful in fine tuning the game.

Best,
Vic


IMHO, a total of 80K extra troops for Russia is not enough to give any chance to the russian player to hold after september.
But i think any additional russian replacement should come from september to december and not before.
The Axis may have a chance to break through the russian lines in july and august.
And from a historical point of view, it took many weeks to the Soviet High command to understand that the german offensive in the south was the real one's and not a diversion of a great offensive towards Moscow.
They really began to send a lot of troops in the south from september and not from july.

I think 40K or 50K troops in addition per month from september to november or december should be better.


This sounds about right to me as well. I dont reckon the Soviet replacements should be too high in the early part of the game, but the build up should be higher later on. Maybe tweak it a bit for the next update? As above, earliest would be late August, but probably early September for extra Soviet replacements.

As a counterpoint I may put up a few stats from my first game against a human opponent. Admittedly he is more experienced than me, but about 6 turns in and the Soviet forces are still stable in number and I havent got a breakthrough on any part of the front. In fact, I'm expecting to open my next turn to see a severely depleted motorized division, his airforce has kicked my butt and I've also managed to lose my fleets (although that was admittedly a deliberate gamble on my part). So the game can go differently in the early turns if the Soviet player has a bit more experience than the Axis player.

When I get home tonight I'll put a bit of a potted AAR up of the first few turns along with some overall stats, just to show that it can go badly wrong for the Axis player early on.

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 10/2/2012 2:51:23 PM   
olivier34

 

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Except Rostov (and Stalingrad could have been such a very difficult place to take), all the cities that I have taken were first surrounded. Others were vacated by Keunert (Maybe the soviet player could sacrifice some men to force the axis player to use his arty and launch an assault to the city, That would have increase the german losses).
About the balance of the game the soviet reinforcement should follow the historic one (Rominet seems to have the numbers. More reinforcement in September...) but something that need to be analyse is the german oil reserves. I thought I would have to freeze part of my front because of a lack of oil. It did not happen...Why ? I have use my air units a lot, moved my tanks and troops every turn...
Another thing, the pps that a general can have. The amount should maybe have a maximum value (around 20 for instance). Von Manstein was abble to play his "freedom of action card" three times in a row. The results are devastating. We are in october, Keunert may launch another offensive against the 6A. ALL the german generals have around 25 pps...

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RE: Case Blue Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert - 10/2/2012 3:04:20 PM   
Keunert


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that's quite an advantage for the germans, their generals tend to have a higher command points production.

i figured that when i keep troops in the city, you will have them sit there until they are completely out of supply and will fall without much of a fight. if i cannot support a hex with supply there will be no losses for the attacker if he does it right.

another soviet disadvantage is the reinforcement placement. if your front crumbles and you place new troops to close gaps it would be great to have the ability to chose HQ before placing. if you reassign them your lose readiness, pp and command points. quite a disadvantage for the defender. and on retreat you quite often get messy situations. (Vic already said he will look into this.)

my guess is that it doesn't need that much to improve the soviet situation.


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