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When Does the Tide Change?

 
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When Does the Tide Change? - 8/19/2012 11:34:08 PM   
Gary Childress


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Just out of curiosity, in the experience of gamers who have made it a ways into the game, at what point, in your experience does the tide begin to change in favor of Allies, or does it? And how long before you can start using US carriers to good effect against KB?

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 12:07:53 AM   
treespider


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Mundy sank all 6 of the original KB in May of '42 in our game. He lost some of his in exchange. My guys got distracted by some Transport TF's he had in the vicinity of Ndeni. C'est la guerre.



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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 12:13:45 AM   
Sakai007


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In my game against the AI, about May - June of 42 is when the tide really changed. After that I proceeded to smash the Japanese navy piece meal until I could operate with impunity in the Solomons. I have raided Truk once, those Tojo's are murder. It's now August 43, I have 3 Essex class carriers on the board, and I only lost the Saratoga and Wasp out of the early war 6. If you are conservative with you're force until mid 42, and then concentrate that force supported by LBA, you can own the KB. Of course, this is against the AI, a human opponent will not give you these same chances.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 2:42:41 AM   
Gary Childress


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Also another related question I didn't think to ask, but what factor(s) to the best of your reckoning seem to contribute to this change? For instance does it seem to be when the Allies get better planes or more experienced pilots or contrarily when the Japanese start to run out of experienced pilots or perhaps some other factor(s) that you have noticed?

The reason I ask is that the mod I'm tinkering with will have a LOT of changes from stock and am curious how I can rig it so the Japanese get a little more time to conquer the DEI. For one thing French Indochina will be in Free French hands at the start of the game so there won't be any really good springboard yet for movement into the DEI and Malaysia. Although the few meager units the French will possess shouldn't be too much of an obstacle it will probably slow things down a bit.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 3:10:09 AM   
PaxMondo


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Gary,

Your question is very player dependent.  There are plenty of examples of allied players getting the upper hand in '42.  However, if you just look at the OOB's, then mid-43 is when the tide changes with the arrival of the Essex class CV's.  At that point, the allies CV based aircraft will start to outnumber the KB and by end of '43 the allies have a solid edge in that department.  The end of '43 also represents when the T-Bolt comes on line in serious quantity.  So in my mind the crossover has always been 6/43 -> 12/43.  If as IJ I can keep the upper-hand past 6/43 I consider myself well ahead of historical. 

I should note that I rarely am able to accomplish that. 

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 3:28:16 AM   
JeffK


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IMVHO
(Scen 1)
You probably get 3 phases.

JFB in charge

A period where there is a bit of baance

AFB on the rampage.

The dates and length of each phase depend a lot on the players, how the CV battles pan out and which areas are being attacked.

By start of 1943 the pendulum should start swinging towards the AFB unless they play like me.

The arrival of the F6F-3 in large numbers (on land or at sea) would be a major turning point.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 7:44:58 AM   
LoBaron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gary Childress

Just out of curiosity, in the experience of gamers who have made it a ways into the game, at what point, in your experience does the tide begin to change in favor of Allies, or does it? And how long before you can start using US carriers to good effect against KB?


Gary, if I understand your question correctly you expect an answer which is as un-player-related as possible.

In my opinion the tide turns with specific occurances in the game, which in my optinion are:

- Naval superiority:

- the Summer ´43 CV/CVL arrival series from Essex to Bunker Hill
- the reliability increase for MK14 on 1st Jan, ´43
- the arrival of the F6F-3
- the arrival of the SB2C-1C and the SBD-5
- the late 42, early 43 radar and AAA upgrades (AAA applies more the DBB than stock obviousely)
- the massed arrival of the Fletcher class DDs (Summer ´43 to Winter ´43)

LBAir superiority:

- the arrival of the P-38G/H and the P-47D2
- the arrival of the Spitfire Vc

Land combat:

- basically all the LCU squad upgrades for ´43 (mainly US Army, USMC, British)


These are in my opinion the major balance changers or equalizers. Averaging out those dates points to somewhere late Spring, early Summer 1943 to reach
equality, and very soon after that, superiority, modified by the fates of war.
The naval superiority list also encompasses the timeframe when KB superiority should be broken in a CV vs. CV engagement.

What do you think?

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 9:32:40 AM   
Banzan

 

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You forgot the 4Es! B-24s start to arrive in numbers with the D1 Version from 43/02. Before you get 15 B-24Ds every month, increasing to 48 with the D1 Version and furter increasing to 65 planes/month in 43/09 with the B-24J.


< Message edited by Banzan -- 8/20/2012 9:38:41 AM >

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 1:18:58 PM   
Gary Childress


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron


Gary, if I understand your question correctly you expect an answer which is as un-player-related as possible.




Hi LoBaron, you are correct. I am looking for an answer that is more or less as objective as reasonably possible. Of course such an asnwer isn't easy to come up with as there are many factors that are player related. However, personal experience is also of value to me regardless of how "objective" it is.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 2:50:03 PM   
castor troy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gary Childress

Just out of curiosity, in the experience of gamers who have made it a ways into the game, at what point, in your experience does the tide begin to change in favor of Allies, or does it? And how long before you can start using US carriers to good effect against KB?



Ongoing PBEM, IJ offensive stopped at New Caledonia with a couple of BB and CV sunk for literally no loss within the Allied Navy, 7/42. The tide definately has changed.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 3:00:39 PM   
Puhis

 

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If allied player have skill, guts and a little luck, he can turn the tide in mid 1942.

If he plays Sir Robin and let Japan prepare, train pilots and accelerate carriers, turning the tide is going to be tough even in mid 1943.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 3:23:54 PM   
Mundy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: treespider

Mundy sank all 6 of the original KB in May of '42 in our game. He lost some of his in exchange. My guys got distracted by some Transport TF's he had in the vicinity of Ndeni. C'est la guerre.



More like almost all of mine.

Ed-


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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 3:51:14 PM   
castor troy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Puhis

If allied player have skill, guts and a little luck, he can turn the tide in mid 1942.

If he plays Sir Robin and let Japan prepare, train pilots and accelerate carriers, turning the tide is going to be tough even in mid 1943.



played a full Sir Robin. IMO this makes it harder for the Japanese, not easier

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 4:25:08 PM   
LoBaron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Puhis

If allied player have skill, guts and a little luck, he can turn the tide in mid 1942.

If he plays Sir Robin and let Japan prepare, train pilots and accelerate carriers, turning the tide is going to be tough even in mid 1943.



played a full Sir Robin. IMO this makes it harder for the Japanese, not easier


This discussion is pretty moot, because an Allied strategy can be successful in turning the tide with or without Sir Robin. It depends on
how the Japanese player reacts to either strategy, and how well the Alliied player orchestrates it. And then, obviousely, on luck.

Personally I don´t like Sir Robin, not because it is less effective, but because I think its boring and ahistorical. But I accept opinions differ
here. It is just a matter of taste.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 4:25:52 PM   
LoBaron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Banzan

You forgot the 4Es! B-24s start to arrive in numbers with the D1 Version from 43/02. Before you get 15 B-24Ds every month, increasing to 48 with the D1 Version and furter increasing to 65 planes/month in 43/09 with the B-24J.



Very true, forgot. Major piece in the puzzle!

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 7:08:31 PM   
US87891

 

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Tide change depends on Lunar orbit. Semi-lunar tides are about 12 and 1/2 hours.

Sorry. But I couldn't stop myself

Matt

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/20/2012 7:26:53 PM   
jeffk3510


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Gary Childress

Just out of curiosity, in the experience of gamers who have made it a ways into the game, at what point, in your experience does the tide begin to change in favor of Allies, or does it? And how long before you can start using US carriers to good effect against KB?


Dec 8, 1941.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/21/2012 3:58:11 AM   
derhexer


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quote:

Just out of curiosity, in the experience of gamers who have made it a ways into the game, at what point, in your experience does the tide begin to change in favor of Allies, or does it? And how long before you can start using US carriers to good effect against KB?


I've had games where I wasn't sure the tide had turned until the end of 1942. The attcks dropped off and I stopped seeing certain carriers in the Jap fleets. Then I realized that japan had 3 fleet carriers left. That was enough for me to say the tide has turned in eaRLY 1943.

There's a lot of signals - attacks drop off, raids drop off, you start to see buiuld up in ports but nothing beyond that.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/21/2012 4:17:15 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gary Childress

Just out of curiosity, in the experience of gamers who have made it a ways into the game, at what point, in your experience does the tide begin to change in favor of Allies, or does it? And how long before you can start using US carriers to good effect against KB?


Dec 8, 1941.

Pfft...Allied dog propaganda! When does tide turn against his excellency and the Empire? Never! BANZAI! BANZAI! BANZAI!

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/21/2012 7:08:26 PM   
crsutton


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If the Japanese player does not make a major mistake then it is April 43 with the arrival of the hellcat. But you have to the do something with it to actually turn the tide. This is in an email game.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/22/2012 1:13:55 PM   
castor troy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Puhis

If allied player have skill, guts and a little luck, he can turn the tide in mid 1942.

If he plays Sir Robin and let Japan prepare, train pilots and accelerate carriers, turning the tide is going to be tough even in mid 1943.



played a full Sir Robin. IMO this makes it harder for the Japanese, not easier


This discussion is pretty moot, because an Allied strategy can be successful in turning the tide with or without Sir Robin. It depends on
how the Japanese player reacts to either strategy, and how well the Alliied player orchestrates it. And then, obviousely, on luck.

Personally I don´t like Sir Robin, not because it is less effective, but because I think its boring and ahistorical. But I accept opinions differ
here. It is just a matter of taste.



nothing the Allied can do in early 42 is as unrealistic or unhistoric like anything the Japanese USUALLY do in EVERY PBEM.

The problem with WITP players' thinking is (and always has been) that it's off to save 50 Allied aircraft from Luzon and perhaps some base forces while retreating into favourable positions but it's perfectely ok for the Japanese to do landings in the South Pacific, the SRA, on the West Coast and Northern India at the same time in 42 while the Japanese in real life weren't even able to supply a single division just a couple of hundred miles away from Truk.

< Message edited by castor troy -- 8/22/2012 1:18:04 PM >


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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/23/2012 9:26:31 AM   
LoBaron


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quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy

quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron


quote:

ORIGINAL: castor troy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Puhis

If allied player have skill, guts and a little luck, he can turn the tide in mid 1942.

If he plays Sir Robin and let Japan prepare, train pilots and accelerate carriers, turning the tide is going to be tough even in mid 1943.



played a full Sir Robin. IMO this makes it harder for the Japanese, not easier


This discussion is pretty moot, because an Allied strategy can be successful in turning the tide with or without Sir Robin. It depends on
how the Japanese player reacts to either strategy, and how well the Alliied player orchestrates it. And then, obviousely, on luck.

Personally I don´t like Sir Robin, not because it is less effective, but because I think its boring and ahistorical. But I accept opinions differ
here. It is just a matter of taste.



nothing the Allied can do in early 42 is as unrealistic or unhistoric like anything the Japanese USUALLY do in EVERY PBEM.

The problem with WITP players' thinking is (and always has been) that it's off to save 50 Allied aircraft from Luzon and perhaps some base forces while retreating into favourable positions but it's perfectely ok for the Japanese to do landings in the South Pacific, the SRA, on the West Coast and Northern India at the same time in 42 while the Japanese in real life weren't even able to supply a single division just a couple of hundred miles away from Truk.


Thats the kind of "I hate being punched into the face, this is why I preventively punch people into the face" kind of logic I never found intriguing.
Our priorisation of reasons to play PBEM are different, so is our understanding of a means to an end, and so is our choice of opponents and playing styles.

Thats what I meant when saying I accept opinions differ, and that its a matter of taste.

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/24/2012 8:22:25 PM   
wadail


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Well, in the current game I am playing the tide turned in January 1942. 2 Things happened:

The British stopped the Japanese at Akyab and got 3 of their divisions into a war of attrition. They lost a ton of cargo ships keeping them supplied, but they held. It is now March of 1943 and they just finished surrounding and destroying about 70,000 Japanese troops, basically opening up all of Burma for recapture by the end of summer.

In the Eastern Pacific the Yorktown and Enterprise were providing air cover for a transport convoy shipping troops and aircraft to Midway when a Japanese CVL and 2 CV's showed up for some pre-invasion softening up. It was bad timing for the Japanese because they came within the carrier task force's air combat range and the bombers I'd deployed to Midway seemed to throw off the Japanese CAP and all 3 carriers were sunk at the cost of 45 days at Pearl's repair yard for the Enterprise. No sooner had they been repaired than I sent them to the South Pacific to prepare to invade the Solomon Islands, when they ran head-long into a task force of 2 more Japanese CV's, southwest of Johnston Island. Again, the bombers at Johnston joined in and interferred with the Japanese CAP and 2 more Japanese carriers were sunk, this time at the cost of 60 days in repair yards. That same turn the Japanese sent the Yamato into the Indian Ocean to bombard Akyab and it took 4 torpedos from a submarine. I don't know if it sank but I have not seen it since.

Sensing opportunity I deployed to Guadalcanal early and used air superiority from CVs to cover invasions all the way up to Shortlands, where the Japanese seemed to get it together for a while and would rush down from Kaiveng or Rabaul and use BBs and CAs on my transports and cargo ships trying to supply Shortlands. They come at night and are gone before airpower can make a difference.

I am currently planning operations against central Burma, and amphibious operations against the Marshalls and Gilberts, and just took Lae after a push up from Port Moresby through Buna. By the end of 1943 I want to have bomber coverage of Truk and prepare for Guam and Siapan. I have not yet decided if I will invade Truk and Rabaul, or just bypass the islands. I am thinking about taking Truk as a base from which to assault the Philipines.


< Message edited by wadail -- 8/24/2012 8:24:22 PM >

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/24/2012 8:33:14 PM   
jeffk3510


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: jeffk3510


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gary Childress

Just out of curiosity, in the experience of gamers who have made it a ways into the game, at what point, in your experience does the tide begin to change in favor of Allies, or does it? And how long before you can start using US carriers to good effect against KB?


Dec 8, 1941.

Pfft...Allied dog propaganda! When does tide turn against his excellency and the Empire? Never! BANZAI! BANZAI! BANZAI!


Every time I play the AI, they awake a sleeping giant

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/24/2012 8:57:48 PM   
Capt. Harlock


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quote:

And how long before you can start using US carriers to good effect against KB?


"good effect" is a slippery concept. A drawn battle is a victory for the Allied side, because their planes, pilots, and ships are much more easily replaced. I would say the Allies must have numerical parity in CV's (possibly including a British flattop or two), full complements of fighters (meaning the F4F-4), replacement of the TBD's by TBF's, and two or more Atlanta class CLAA's. That would be around September 1942.

(Yes, I know TBF's are still lousy on torpedo attack, but the extra search range is highly valuable.)

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RE: When Does the Tide Change? - 8/24/2012 10:31:20 PM   
FatR

 

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An Allied player who accepts some risk can launch a potentially fatal strategic counterattack with high chances of success at any point starting from about about May of 1942, assuming neigher side takes extraordinary losses before and no unusual incompetence on Japanese part. Otherwise outcomes are quite variable...

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