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Allied submarine torps vs. DDs.

 
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Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/18/2012 7:49:53 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 1800
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		Lately I have noticed something very odd in my PBEM vs obvert. My subs have played a cat and mouse game with his DDs all over the map. It should have worked out very well except for the fact that ALL hits have been "duds".

I don´t have the exact number but I think I´m approaching 20-25 hits during the last month and against his DDs I have a 100% dud rate. Not a single one have exploded. Against other shipping it works normally.

I´m thinking something is not right here. Either they actually are duds in which case this perhaps could be some bug. Or its simply a display error and the duds are actually misses. In that case I guess its a bug as well!? But I do get misses pretty often too.

Very weird!
Post #: 1
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/18/2012 9:18:36 AM   
Puhis


Posts: 1627
Joined: 11/30/2008
From: Finland
Status: offline 		Bad luck, nothing more. Allied subs have sunk enough of my DDs.

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 2
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/18/2012 12:51:31 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 1800
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		Whats the probability for getting 20-25 duds in a row on DDs only but getting normal hits on all other targets? I think something is amiss...

(in reply to Puhis)
Post #: 3
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/18/2012 1:55:41 PM   
witpqs

 

Posts: 12400
Joined: 10/4/2004
From: Argleton
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Whats the probability for getting 20-25 duds in a row on DDs only but getting normal hits on all other targets? I think something is amiss...

IIRC the dud rate on those USN Mk14 torps is 80% until it begins getting adjusted downward. To get 20 duds in a row you basically get .80**20, which is 0.1153.

In other words a 1.15% chance for them all in a row to be duds. Said another way, for every group of 20 Mk14 hits, 1 out of 86.7 times all 20 of the hits will be duds.

So it's rare but frequent enough that people on this forum will experience it, and someone will notice it and post about it.

Feel better?

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 4
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/18/2012 2:26:52 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 1800
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		Slightly

I´m far from convinced though!

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Post #: 5
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/19/2012 1:32:06 AM   
michaelm


Posts: 8198
Joined: 5/5/2001
From: Sydney, Australia
Status: offline 		Open up the editor for the scenario you are playing, have a look at the dud rate for the torpedo the subs are using in the Device tab?
What is it? Or just paste the picture of the torpedo device screen.

[edit]
In scenario #1, 21 in Mk14 torpedo has a dud rate of 80.
From about Jan 43, the rate drops to by 20 (to 60) and 8 months later to 10.


< Message edited by michaelm -- 8/19/2012 1:41:52 AM >

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Post #: 6
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/19/2012 7:25:20 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 1800
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		michelm,

Yes I´m playing scenario 1. I just find it very odd to have a 100% dud rate against DDs only. Against other shipping I do get the occational dud. But I might just be a crazy fluke. Will count more thoroughly from now and see what happens!

(in reply to michaelm)
Post #: 7
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/25/2012 4:21:18 PM   
obvert


Posts: 3683
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: London, UK
Status: offline 		I just noticed this here. Jocke has a point here, because the number of duds on DDs is staggeringly larger than the dud rate on any other ship. It is now March 43 so the torps should be hitting the majority of the time at least. For the past three months the hits have increased on every other kind of ship.

My feeling is that the number of hits is about right, but the note is wrong, listing duds when they should be misses. I rarely hit Allied subs either, especially those involved in ASW, but all of those non-hits are listed as misses. So it's probably semantics, but hard to handle when it keeps saying they are duds. It is on average one per turn.

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Post #: 8
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/25/2012 5:01:25 PM   
LoBaron


Posts: 3843
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline 		C'mon guys, think twice about this issue. Your average DD is brutally hard to hit by a torp.

Just weeks ago there was exactly the same suspicion against torps hitting CVs. I will simply post the link, since it does not make sense
to type everything again, but if you are interested what is the most probable cause for what you see, read my post #28. You have to
shift numbers and percentages, but the result is pretty much the same.

Seriousely now.....

I have sunk DDs by MK14s, and I have sunk DDs by MK10s, not many, but I don´t expect that. 95% of my torps fired against a DD hull are a miss,
and I am absolutely not surprized, this should be the case.

obvert, before I forget: your MK14 dud rate in March '43 is 60%, so duds are still the majority IF you hit at all. Hit percentage and dud percentage are two different things, if
you think the hit rate (as opposed to a torp miss) should increase later war you are mixing up things. It doesn´t.


I give this 'issue' a 99.99% chance to turn out to be an occurance within normal statistical distribution.

< Message edited by LoBaron -- 8/25/2012 8:15:17 PM >

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Post #: 9
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/26/2012 3:03:55 AM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 4427
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline 		Not to mention FOW is present here as well ....



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Post #: 10
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/26/2012 9:52:43 AM   
LoBaron


Posts: 3843
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline 		FOW is a factor as well, and also I forgot to quote the most valuable post in the thread linked above:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Don Bowen

There are a number of issues in this thread, and perhaps a little confusion about how some things work.

A sub torpedo attack involves:

  1. Can the sub fire a torpedo (or more than one)?

    • Is the target worth a torpedo (with fog of war)?
    • Can the sub get into firing position?

      • Relative speed of sub and target TF
      • Detection level of sub and TF
      • Number and skill of escorts
      • Skill and aggression of sub commander

  2. Does the torpedo hit the target?

    • Accuracy of torpedo (from device table)
    • Speed and maneuverablilty of target

  3. Does it explode?

    • Dud rate of torpedo (from device table)
    • Nothing else



To all of these, add a little luck. Or rather, random chance. For just about everything in AE, there is a random chance. A torpedo with an 80% dud rate would have an 80% chance of failure for each hit. No long term averaging or any such thing. Just a random 80%. That could mean 10 explosions in a row or 500 duds in a row. It's just random.




See the part bolded by me: You got about the worst possible combination against you to enable a torp hit when you fire on a DD.

Also, you can see by Don´s post that there is absolutely no relation to ship class in the hit calculations, with the possible exception of the decision to fire on target in the first place.

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S**t happens in war.

All hail the superior ones!

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Post #: 11
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/26/2012 11:57:47 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 1800
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		Please reread my first post. The question was never about the amount of misses or hits for that matter. The hit or miss percentages are irrelevant in this case. The question was about the very odd occurrences of "duds" ONLY against DDs.

If I was unclear in my first post I apologize.

A "dud" means a "hit without explosion". Since my report concerns "duds" the possibilities of hitting a DD is totally irrelevant in this case (but it should be noted that the US subs through a period of the war targeted Japanese DDs with great success).

The issue if I could call it that is the weird number of "duds" IE hits that fail to explode. I´m not very good at math but if there is a 40% risk of a dud and it happens 27 times in a row ONLY on DDs the statistical probabilities should be pretty low. Perhaps witpqs can do the math again?

Hence I made the post.

There is also the question whether or not the reported "duds" we see in the replay actually are duds.


< Message edited by JocMeister -- 8/27/2012 8:02:01 AM >

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Post #: 12
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/26/2012 2:10:13 PM   
LoBaron


Posts: 3843
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Please reread my first post. The question was never about the amount of misses or hits for that matter. The hit or miss percentages are irrelevant in this case. The question was about the very odd occurrences of "duds" ONLY against DDs.

If I was unclear in my first post I apologize.

A "dud" means a "hit without explosion". Since my report concerns "duds" the possibilities of hitting a DD is totally irrelevant in this case (but it should be noted that the US subs through a period of the war targeted Japanese subs with great success).

The issue if I could call it that is the weird number of "duds" IE hits that fail to explode. I´m not very good at math but if there is a 40% risk of a dud and it happens 27 times in a row ONLY on DDs the statistical probabilities should be pretty low. Perhaps witpqs can do the math again?

Hence I made the post.

There is also the question whether or not the reported "duds" we see in the replay actually are duds.



JocMeister, I did not misread your first post.

The reason for me pointing out differences between miss and dud was that these topics usually generate a lot of "yeah, this happens to me as well,
this must be an issue" follow-ups which often do not discern as you did, and in many cases are completely unrelated to your specific experience. This
generates an ammount of false evidence that only looks convincing because the other 99% of players not experiencing the same issue don´t bother to
post "but my DDs get sunk as any other ship".

The chance for a high number of duds in a row is real, there are thousands of PBEMs being played, so the chances of some statistical result occuring
with a 1% probability is extremely high.

As Don said, dud rate has nothing to do with the target type, the only calculation made is based on the torps´ dud rate.

FOW might play a role as well, mabe masking some misses as duds or vice versa, but even if this turns out wrong there is too much fact opposing the assumption that an issue exists.

For this to be the case there must be a major fubar concerning torp explosion calculations, somehow factoring in ship types, which nobody noticed over
3 years, not even modders like the DaBabes team. And it would oppose my personal experience that I did not notice any difference in dud probability
on DDs compared to other ship types.

Now, IMHO this is enough to estimate the chances of a statistical extreme happening in one of a couple of thousands of games (yours) much higher
than the chances that a bug exists which for some reason favors a DD´s survivability when hit by a torp over that of any other ship type.

_____________________________

S**t happens in war.

All hail the superior ones!

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Post #: 13
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/26/2012 3:09:11 PM   
Cannonfodder


Posts: 1325
Joined: 10/22/2008
Status: offline 		An undamaged DD is very hard to hit. Your succes rate against damaged naval vessels (DDs, CLs etc) should be a lot higher.

Speed is a factor, and the manoeuver rating of the ship. The higher these ratings, the harder a target is to hit..

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Post #: 14
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/26/2012 3:19:08 PM   
PaxMondo


Posts: 4427
Joined: 6/6/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

There is also the question whether or not the reported "duds" we see in the replay actually are duds.


Pretty sure that FOW is involved in this. It would track reality if it did.

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Pax

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Post #: 15
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/28/2012 7:58:08 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 1800
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline 		Whatever it is you can now add 2 more! Closing on about 30!

(in reply to PaxMondo)
Post #: 16
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/28/2012 3:21:51 PM   
cavalry

 

Posts: 1727
Joined: 9/2/2003
From: Blackboys East Sussex UK
Status: offline 		I notice against all allied DD it says miss and against Jap DD it says dud, I think the message dud should mostly say miss?

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 17
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/28/2012 3:40:17 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 1800
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: cavalry

I notice against all allied DD it says miss and against Jap DD it says dud, I think the message dud should mostly say miss?


Thats what I´m starting to suspect as well!

(in reply to cavalry)
Post #: 18
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 8/28/2012 8:23:50 PM   
obvert


Posts: 3683
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: London, UK
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: LoBaron

C'mon guys, think twice about this issue. Your average DD is brutally hard to hit by a torp.

Just weeks ago there was exactly the same suspicion against torps hitting CVs. I will simply post the link, since it does not make sense
to type everything again, but if you are interested what is the most probable cause for what you see, read my post #28. You have to
shift numbers and percentages, but the result is pretty much the same.

Seriousely now.....

I have sunk DDs by MK14s, and I have sunk DDs by MK10s, not many, but I don´t expect that. 95% of my torps fired against a DD hull are a miss,
and I am absolutely not surprized, this should be the case.

obvert, before I forget: your MK14 dud rate in March '43 is 60%, so duds are still the majority IF you hit at all. Hit percentage and dud percentage are two different things, if
you think the hit rate (as opposed to a torp miss) should increase later war you are mixing up things. It doesn´t.


I give this 'issue' a 99.99% chance to turn out to be an occurance within normal statistical distribution.


Everything you are saying is supported by what we are saying. We both realize that hits against DDs are rare. I feel fine sending out my best DDs on ASW (I'm playing the Japanese side by the way, so they're not my Mk 14s).

We're simply noticing a difference between the messages that are put in reports between the Allied side and the Japanese side. The Allied 'misses' are most often called duds. The 'misses' by IJN subs are called misses. They are very rarely called duds. It's that simple. But that difference could be confusing, especially for a new player, and lead them to make decisions based on that information.


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Post #: 19
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/4/2012 7:39:44 AM   
Nalamin

 

Posts: 103
Joined: 12/7/2007
From: SC, USA
Status: offline 		There is an issue with torpedoes not exploding when fired at IJN DD's. I am currently up to 4/20/44 in a boosted Japanese game and so far I have sunk EXACTLY 3 DD's with submarine fired torpedoes. One Mk 14 and 2 Mk 10's. Five have been sunk by air dropped torpedoes. At least 15 additional IJN DD's have been struck by subs but have come up with the dud response. IJN E boats and SC's do not seem to be included in this ... they have been struck many times.

Historically about 40 IJN DD's were sunk by American Subs. I am WAY below that number. If current averages persist I will sink an additional 3 IJN DD's before the end of the war.

If this hasn't been looked at it needs to be.

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 20
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/4/2012 10:01:14 AM   
Erkki

 

Posts: 1125
Joined: 2/17/2010
Status: offline 		Turn 10

IJN submarine-launched torpedo hits on Allied DDs: 2. Number of duds: 2.
Allied submarine-launched torpedo hits on IJN DDs: 2. Number of duds: 2.



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Post #: 21
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/4/2012 3:30:26 PM   
Nalamin

 

Posts: 103
Joined: 12/7/2007
From: SC, USA
Status: offline 		Now that you mention it I seem to recall having 3-5 hits on US DD's that also came up with dud responses. It has been much less prominent since Japanese sub attacks are much less frequent. I think the problem may be affecting both sides.

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Post #: 22
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/4/2012 7:10:13 PM   
Puhis


Posts: 1627
Joined: 11/30/2008
From: Finland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nalamin

I think the problem may be affecting both sides.


Not sure there is a problem. In my PBEM game (at the moment 7/43) my IJN subs have sunk 9 allied destroyers for sure, and they have damaged couple more. Also allied subs have sunk japanese DDs, not that many but 5 or 6 ships.

(in reply to Nalamin)
Post #: 23
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/6/2012 10:40:52 PM   
Nalamin

 

Posts: 103
Joined: 12/7/2007
From: SC, USA
Status: offline 		Your own numbers are indicative of some kind of problem. The numbers in my game are also very unhistorical.

In my game dated 4/22/44 I have had 12 US DD's sunk by 24 inch IJN torpedoes. Historically only three US destroyers and two DE's were sunk by IJN submarines. I think it was probably because they were not considered valid targets by the IJN. I think this is just an indication that the IJN submarine service is much more aggressive in WIP than they were historically.

None the less the numbers indicate that sinkings of IJN DD's are way below historical(around 40) and the apparent extreme Dud rate has something to do with it.

Unfortunately this could be something very difficult to find in the code. Can it be replicated?

(in reply to Puhis)
Post #: 24
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/7/2012 10:12:13 AM   
LoBaron


Posts: 3843
Joined: 1/26/2003
From: Vienna, Austria
Status: offline 		Nalamin, please bear with me, I´d like to demonstrate something.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Nalamin

Your own numbers are indicative of some kind of problem. The numbers in my game are also very unhistorical.


In my PBEM in March 44 there are all but 1 IJN carrier afloat. The numbers are very unhistorical.

quote:

In my game dated 4/22/44 I have had 12 US DD's sunk by 24 inch IJN torpedoes. Historically only three US destroyers and two DE's were sunk by IJN submarines.


Historically at this time the IJN had already lost Akagi, Kaga, Ryujo, Soryu, Hiryu, and Shoho.

quote:

I think it was probably because they were not considered valid targets by the IJN.
I think this is just an indication that the IJN submarine service is much more aggressive in WIP than they were historically.


I think on my example you would point out that engagements took place in a different way, and the Allied and Japanese side used their
assets differently from their historical use.

quote:

None the less the numbers indicate that sinkings of IJN DD's are way below historical(around 40) and the apparent extreme Dud rate has something to do with it.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Don Bowen

There are a number of issues in this thread, and perhaps a little confusion about how some things work.

A sub torpedo attack involves:

  1. Can the sub fire a torpedo (or more than one)?

    • Is the target worth a torpedo (with fog of war)?
    • Can the sub get into firing position?

      • Relative speed of sub and target TF
      • Detection level of sub and TF
      • Number and skill of escorts
      • Skill and aggression of sub commander

  2. Does the torpedo hit the target?

    • Accuracy of torpedo (from device table)
    • Speed and maneuverablilty of target

  3. Does it explode?

    • Dud rate of torpedo (from device table)
    • Nothing else





< Message edited by LoBaron -- 11/7/2012 10:22:56 AM >

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S**t happens in war.

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Post #: 25
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/8/2012 4:23:03 AM   
crsutton


Posts: 6201
Joined: 12/6/2002
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		If I recall, three years ago when the game came out there was a outcry because Allied DDs were getting killed by Japanese subs at an alarming rate. A fix was made and it became very difficult to hit and kill DDs. it is also difficult to hit and kill slower escorts but that is the way it has always been. Mostly my subs even with reliable torps in 44 shoot and miss or shoot and dud vs all types of escorts. This is not to say that I have not sunk plenty of escorts over the course of 1,000 turns but it is just behind the historical expectation. I have learned to live with it. I suspect you have just had a run of crappy luck. Play another 30 days and record the events and come back if it is still happening so lopsided.

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Post #: 26
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/8/2012 4:30:23 AM   
Kull


Posts: 1001
Joined: 7/3/2007
From: El Paso, TX
Status: offline 		Expecting subs to succesfully hunt DDs is sort of like wondering why wildebeest don't have a high kill rate when taking on lions. It probably happens from time to time, but it should be pretty clear who's the predator in this "relationship".

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Post #: 27
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/8/2012 8:59:46 AM   
obvert


Posts: 3683
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: London, UK
Status: offline 		Interesting this thread is still kicking. I might highlight my post #19 again and say that the issue may not be hit rate, but actually message information. This goes back to the OP as well.

Obviously there is FOW, but for the Allies to consistently get the message 'dud' when you fire at DDs (in both players' reports), but for the IJN to get the message 'miss' in exactly the same situation, brings confusion. Newer players will continually bring up this disparity if it continues. It's not the kill rate itself, it's the discrepancy between information reports about attacks that is the issue. For this to be combined with the now 60% working torpedoes and 'normal' message frequency variation in other types of shipping attacks (some 'duds', some 'misses' some 'hits'), and it is unnecessarily confusing.

Few DD in our game for either side have been killed by subs. The number of dud messages on DDs was astonishing though, even after 43 and the better Mk 14s. The equivalent would be getting your TBs through en masse and untouched, approach a DD, get a 'dud' hit (never a 'miss'), and have this happen 3-5 times a week! Accompany this with the IJ player getting his TBs through and getting a 'miss' message every time, and you you start getting questions. It's also hard to hit DDs from the air, but this message disparity could lead the player to think something was amiss in the game engine.

I know this is not game-stopping material, but it is odd and annoying, because it confuses the issue further of what is actually working and what is not.

< Message edited by obvert -- 11/8/2012 9:59:18 AM >

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Post #: 28
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/8/2012 12:38:49 PM   
cavalry

 

Posts: 1727
Joined: 9/2/2003
From: Blackboys East Sussex UK
Status: offline 		Does the speed of the sub cruise or mission make a difference to its chances??? That is of firing and making attacks?

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 29
RE: Allied submarine torps vs. DDs. - 11/8/2012 2:27:51 PM   
Puhis


Posts: 1627
Joined: 11/30/2008
From: Finland
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Nalamin

Your own numbers are indicative of some kind of problem. The numbers in my game are also very unhistorical.

In my game dated 4/22/44 I have had 12 US DD's sunk by 24 inch IJN torpedoes. Historically only three US destroyers and two DE's were sunk by IJN submarines. I think it was probably because they were not considered valid targets by the IJN. I think this is just an indication that the IJN submarine service is much more aggressive in WIP than they were historically.

None the less the numbers indicate that sinkings of IJN DD's are way below historical(around 40) and the apparent extreme Dud rate has something to do with it.

Unfortunately this could be something very difficult to find in the code. Can it be replicated?


DDs are hard to hit, because they are relatively small, fast and nimble ships. Like crsutton said, one of the early patch made it more difficult to hit DDs and other escorts. Before that change, it was too easy to sink DDs with subs. This change apply to both sides.

Historical comparisons are not very helpful. Players are not using historical tactics and strategy. You cannot expect any kind of historical fixed kill ratio.

This game still have some minor issues and ahistorical capabilities, but IMO especially naval aspect of the game is very good.

(in reply to Nalamin)
Post #: 30
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