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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton)

 
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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 1:28:38 AM   
hfarrish


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Farfarer

Pelton likely tried a win everywhere and won not everyhwere. I submit he is experimenting. If he or she made great strides, a standard blizzard fallback would be worth it. But now that it is pooched, why not a withdrawal, save 1,000,000 casualties, and attack the 8 million man Ant Army in 1942 ? A poster, I think he was Flavius :) said "1941 is foreplay".


I think Pelton just tried a strategy that had been working near Leningrad, but unfortunately for him all those campaigns were public and MT was obviously very well prepared for the exact same thing. Even the '41 Red Army can stop the Germans if they know exactly what they are going to do in advance (and that doesn't take away from MT's defense, which was quite well executed).

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 2:08:20 AM   
Fishbed


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Ho my, from what we can read in his topic you probably exchanged harsh words I suppose...
But well, even though the top notch 4 million army thing is true, I guess a 1941 remake in 1942 will certainly have to take into account the fact you're gonna pop up new 4 level Stalin lines everywhere if you're given the opportunity. I like how he says that everything in 1941 is about population centers and killing units, and that still he didn't manage to do either. Don't quit, just try to prove him wrong.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 2:44:34 AM   
Kamil

 

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For me only doubtful thing about this game is scale of Soviet victory. Major or minor, that is the question.


Mounting assaults against Wehrmacht undiminished by winter, well entrenched and managed by cautious player (Pelton will play not to lose) will be extremely hard, so gaining enough momentum early enough might require taunting him into costly offensive actions. Even sacrificing poor units can be good tool.

Convincing Pelton, that offensive is necessary and beneficial could separate minor and major Soviet victory in this game.


I am pretty sure Michael knows better what to do, I just try to boost my ego by giving smartly looking advices. It vital for me after boost it after depressing time spent making finishing touches of the turn in game vs Saper. ... just kidding ...

< Message edited by Kamil -- 10/7/2012 2:48:31 AM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 7:18:28 AM   
Michael T


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There have been no harsh words. I am just very frustrated with his attitude now that his 1941 campaign has failed so miserably. This is not why I play. I leave experiments to AI gaming. Not waste other gamers time and effort. We all know (except Pelton) what the end result will be. Maybe against some newbie this might work. But this is a waste of probably 6 months or more of my game time. I told him I would accept a resignation and then we could switch sides. But he is adament about continuing on. So I just have to play on knowing full well this is a forgone conclusion. The other thing is I totally disagree with his going on about how stuffed the Germans are now since muling got nerfed. Sure I profess the game is in the Sov's favour but not to this extent he is going on about. So rather than wasting my time playing out this I would rather be slicing him up as the Axis player and disproving his theroy on how hopeless the Axis cause is now.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 9:14:25 AM   
glvaca

 

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Well, don't forget our game
I won't run to Poland, I promise!
Seriously tough, whether or not this is a fun strategy for you is in my opinion not a valid reason for blaming Pelton. In a sense he's just doing what you have done during the summer: retreat where you could not hold.

So the real point in this discussion, for me, is the imbalance of the Blizzard when a Soviet player has done really well during the summer of 1941. Please consider Peltons options:
1. stand and fight. Result would have been a massacre.
2. Slowly retreat during Blizzard. Loss of approx. 1 million men through attrition and 12 point of morale for the mass of infantry in the open.
3. Having achieved nothing of his objectives, retreat to Poland and reset. Stake all on conserving strength and morale and the ability to counter attack in 1942 & perhaps 1943.

With option 3, even if he does not achieve miracles, his army at least will remain strong for the defensive battles still to be fought. Whether he'll be able to ride it out till 1945 is anyones guess at this point.

As to the Blizzard effects. I don't mind the casualties, it's the morale loss that is the real problem. Sure, you'll be able to recover some IF you survive the blizzard in good enough shape to actually do a lot of counter attacks. And that is the additional problem, the spiral effect, once the German player suffers substantial losses during the Blizzard, he will most likely be in a poor state to counter attack in March.

So the morale loss of being in the open and through combat/retreats really is the cause of the shift in German possibilities and options. It's no surprise, as it is fully intended by the designers to be so. Perhaps it used to work when the Russians were weaker. But with the changes since the last patches, it just might be too much of a shift & frankly, given the choices open to Pelton, can you blame him for doing the only thing open to him to negate the Blizzazrds morale effects?

Take the morale loss out of the equation, and I guarentee no German will run, even with the attritional losses suffered, and you will have a very hard fought battle.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 9:49:24 AM   
Michael T


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Well I am a little surprised that prior to the muling nerf all I heard was how bad things were for the Russians. Now the muling is gone all I am hearing is how bad things are for Germany. If you do enough damage to the Russians in 1941 you can fight your way through the blizzard in some areas and fall back in others. That is what I will do against Pelton is the return game.

The resumption of our game Glenn is going to be some time of I am afraid. FWIW if this scheme by Pelton were to work then the game (unless I screwed up) is out of wack completely. I trust it is not and I will roll him handsomely by the end of 1944.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 10:37:15 AM   
glvaca

 

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Well, I never mulled so I'm not even considering that in my reasoning.
What hurt more than anything is the changes in the combat engine. It has become so much more unpredictable than before. And this is what basically makes it much more difficult to advance as the German.
And by all measures, you are obviously a top notch player. You know how to defend, where to defend and when to defend.

So consider this:
1. much harder to attack, meaning less attacks per turn (as you need higher odds than before).
2. Hasties against all but very weak units is simple a crap shoot more likely than not to result in stupid helds and morale loss.
3. Supply/fuel is reduced, meaning less movement for the panzers, and as such less attacks etc...
4. No reason for the Russian to fight beyond the time needed to evac. industry. and short of Moscow & Leningrad.
5. Russian morale recovers to quickly in comparison to German morale.

Result:
1. Low overall Russian losses during summer.
2. Very strong army going into blizzard and high chance for the German to get a beating he will not be able to recover from.
3. Add to this the scripted morale loss which, if matched to the above scenario, is almost impossible to recover from even to let's say mid 70-ties for the infantry.
4. Germans run for Poland

IS the game out of wack? Difficult to say. But if a very experienced German player decides it's better in the long run to evac to Poland than fight it out in the blizzard, you could say somethings wrong. I'm sure we all agree, even if we disagree with his reasoning, that Pelton thinks he didn't stand a chance by fighting it out in the blizzard. And we know he might have the most expereince as the German beyond 42 of anyone here.

So for me it boils donw to this:
1. Does the 1941 game comes closer to what happened historically? Probably yes, it's much harder to capture Leningrad and Moscow. Certainly if the Soviet player doesn't do a forward defence.
2. HAve the Blizzard effects shifted to take this new reality into account? I don't think so.

So on the one hand you have a much harder time to get anywhere as the German, compounded by a much lower headcount if the Russian uses space and time to his advantage (like you do) to avoid pockets. But you still end up with the same harsh blizzard effects no matter what you do.

As I mentioned before, take the morale penalties out of the equation OR limit them in some way, and you'd take away the main motivation for running to Poland. For example, remove morale penalties when in fort level 2 or 3 or above. This has historical merrit. Army group North, well dugin before the winter didn't suffer nearly as much attrition (and morale loss in game terms) as is now the case.
As another example, remove morale penalties for units in any size town. This would also have historical merit as the Germans used these towns to form strong points and protection of the cold.
Keep the attrition rate, keep the combat morale loss and so on, just back-off on the scripted loss of 12 morale points and we'd have a much more intertesting game where even if suffering a bad blizzard, the German should still be able to keep enough morale while fighting to actually have a chance of a good 42 summer offensive.

As to the summer 41, perhaps some sudden death conditions should also apply to keep the Russian from running to quickly. Your point has always been that it is too easy for the Russian to run and as such avoid high losses. In effect, the game has underscored these reralities by reducing the replacement rate for the Soviets. Force the Russian to fight forward, and turn the replacement rate back up would seem the best of both worlds. But then, what may be balanced between experts may not yield the same results between nocives or average players. It remains a difficult balancing act.

I know that our game will be on hold for a while yet. I have only myself to blame. Still, IIRC, I was doing much better than Pelton territory wise. Closing in on Leningrad and getting ready for a big offensive on Mocow in a turn or 2. It's doubtful I would have been able to capture either, but that feels very right.

Anyway, my 2 cents.




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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 10:49:08 AM   
sillyflower


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Michael

I hope it helps to say that I did not get any impression of any exchange of harsh words from anything either of you has written.

Like Glavka I entirely see Pelton's logic - and I'm sure you do too. I'm sorry you won't find it much fun. I would like nothing more than a GC that went to late 44/early 45 but they seem virtually impossible to get. Apart from you I have only had 1 german opponent who did not surrender or disappear by the end of Jan '42 and that only lasted until September '42.

If/when I play Pelton I would have no objection to being on the position you are in now. Admittedly I no longer have babies/small children so I am not confined to a single game like you are for the forseeable future

Maybe I will have to find a german to play GC 42

< Message edited by sillyflower -- 10/7/2012 11:02:35 AM >


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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 12:31:35 PM   
Flaviusx


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I see no advantage to resetting in 1942 with a Red Army at 8 million plus, and overflowing replacement pools. The German saves 1 million casualties...and so what? He has to kill several million more Russians, and start over again from scratch. This is utterly false economy.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 1:01:34 PM   
sillyflower


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Flavius

With the greatest respect, I think you may be missing the point. The aim is not to win by killing millions more Russians in offensives but to have a German army that will survive because it will have a million more men and higher morale, whilst the Russians have lower morale.

Whether it works we shall see as/if this game progesses.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 1:08:27 PM   
Flaviusx


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I see the point, and I say it is false economy, because it doesn't matter how good the shape of the Wehrmacht is if it has to start over from scratch against a far larger Red Army with plenty of territory to give up. It is the relative state of the two armies that matters, not the absolute state of a single one.

Give me a free hand in 1942 an I will win handily, as I expect Michael to. There's no pressure here on the Soviets at all. They can do anything they want, stall with all the territory being handed over freely, and engage this refreshed Wehrmacht only minimally while it has to retrace its steps and rebuild all the rail lines. Having done so, it will then face the bulk of the Red Army intact, well dug in, and in terrain features of its own selection, back by massive reserves and pools.

If you don't put the Red Army in a state of crisis and pressure in 42, it need only count down the clock until the end of the year and upgrade itself to version 2.0. Once that happens, the Wehrmacht is toast. No matter how strong it is, 150 rifle corps backed up by a massive artillery park will batter through it. The transition to Big Red will happen smoothly and without delays and at a position well ahead of where it was going into 1943 with a far more favorable replacement situation.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 1:21:59 PM   
glvaca

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I see the point, and I say it is false economy, because it doesn't matter how good the shape of the Wehrmacht is if it has to start over from scratch against a far larger Red Army with plenty of territory to give up. It is the relative state of the two armies that matters, not the absolute state of a single one.

Give me a free hand in 1942 an I will win handily, as I expect Michael to. There's no pressure here on the Soviets at all. They can do anything they want, stall with all the territory being handed over freely, and engage this refreshed Wehrmacht only minimally while it has to retrace its steps and rebuild all the rail lines. Having done so, it will then face the bulk of the Red Army intact, well dug in, and in terrain features of its own selection, back by massive reserves and pools.

If you don't put the Red Army in a state of crisis and pressure in 42, it need only count down the clock until the end of the year and upgrade itself to version 2.0. Once that happens, the Wehrmacht is toast. No matter how strong it is, 150 rifle corps backed up by a massive artillery park will batter through it. The transition to Big Red will happen smoothly and without delays and at a position well ahead of where it was going into 1943 with a far more favorable replacement situation.


You know Flav., you may be right. OR be proven right. But with some odd 200+ turns to go, and an almost infinite amount of variables along the way, it seems to me that some caution in predicting its outcome is in order. Granted, I am but a simple soul and posses no "out of this Earth" capabilities.

So I'll stick to: it remains to be played and seen. I'm certainly interested to see the result!

< Message edited by glvaca -- 10/7/2012 1:24:06 PM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 1:31:56 PM   
Flaviusx


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Oh, I absolutely want to see this thing fought out. Michael is being unduly impatient and not appreciating the opportunity he has to build a model Red Army. He will never get a better one than this. He's losing his cherry in the best possible way. Most players building their late war Red Army for the first time have to do it under far worse circumstances.

If he can prove, as I expect him to, that this runaway strategy is utterly fallacious, then nobody else will be inclined to repeat it. I'm cheering him on.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 3:05:07 PM   
Speedy

 

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Me too as Pelton seems to think its a great idea and it's a master plan. I don't see it that way at all....

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 3:51:31 PM   
Zonso

 

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This game is over. I don't see what there is to see in having it played out. In fact I find it hugely ironic the very same people expressing that desire also advocated surrender in the Speedy/Sapper match as it was 'over' in their view on Turn 8!!!

Maybe also we can finally put to rest the 'Lvov pocket imbalancing the game' boogeyman as well.

Michael T simply outplayed Pelton here. Congratulations.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 4:25:14 PM   
Flaviusx


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Zonso, I have told Pelton directly in his topic that he is flatly wrong and is making a serious mistake. He is the reason this game is continuing, and nobody else. But that being the case, yes, I'm content to see this proposition of his tested to destruction.

None of this has anything to do with the Lvov pocket, which some of us will never accept because it is ridiculous on its own terms, regardless of game balance.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 4:32:55 PM   
Balou


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I really do hope Pelton won't find any reasons/excuses/"bugs"/nerfs etc that gives him a reason to stop the whole thing.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 6:09:16 PM   
Farfarer

 

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As for playing on or not, I direct the readers to the wild swings in the game I recently surrendered to M60. I learned a lot about Axis mobile defence. Also, it was an experiment completely, and fun, so I dont think Michael should be quite so indignant.
I am hoping some new insights come of this.
Last time I looked we are all playing Beta versions - that goes for the strategy too :)

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 8:10:09 PM   
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Look at the "discoveries" made in this game for both sides the last 6 months of AAR's. I've discovered one "trick" that I'm sure Pelton will use that will surprise Michael T. No doubt Michael T. has also some previously undisclosed tricks for the Soviet's to employ . But for those who think Pelton is already beaten (Michael T. clearly won the opening), wait and see the magic he weaves. You can get burned by what you think is merely "hot air."

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/7/2012 9:30:18 PM   
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I think Pelton's cooked his goose here.You have to hurt the SU in 41 just to get an even game.If you can't do it in 41 what chance 42.He's going to be facing a massive army well dug in to hand picked defensive positions plus depth.Even if by some miracle he manages to plow through these formidable defenses the SU will have plenty of room to pull back to absorb the attack.Against a newb it might work, in this game no chance.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/8/2012 8:13:16 AM   
Fishbed


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You're underrating Pelton's sense of strategy here Timmy. Doing so would be reckless. I am pretty sure he's mainly just gonna turtle and counter, he has no "territory" expectations for 1942 (no hope for Leningrad, Moscow or the likes) and his first goal will be to shatter the tip of MT's sword. Offensives will just made in such ways that he will try to eat and digest giant localized chunks of the Red Army while building Siegfried lines every 20km or so for the next three years. He knows that 1942 is a good moment for that: MT may put as many units in a single hex as he wants, he will still end up having armies or half a front being surrounded by a resolute localized pincer movement, and form unbreakable pockets. Whatever carpet MT puts forward, it's gonna be lost the moment Pelton resolutely bites it off, and considering the probable thickness of the front, the Germans doing a pincer just 5 hex behind the frontline could be enough to trap hundred of thousands of men. And knowing how well preserved the Wehrmacht will be, I guess he can probably do that well into 1943, as long as he prevents a good build up of Red Army 2.0. I just hope MT won't answer his provocations and keep most of his armies well behind the front behind several lightly held lines, waiting for the railways to connect, and forcing Pelton to penetrate deeply if he really wants to harm the reserves that may kick his ass into 1944.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/8/2012 10:41:41 AM   
janh

 

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This is truly a very, very weired game. I can understand Michael's frustration to some degree there, but I say: hang in. With this game and its sometimes dramatic swings, I am not quite sure which "goose is cooked" yet.

Certainly Michael has outplayed Pelton now once, partly due to him being dead set on a strategy that offered pretty much all advantages to MT. Best terrain for the defender, a nice limited channel to clog with the lake ordering it, and MT reading the signs correctly and reacting early to it. It would have been a different story had Pelton feinted that, but now I think he got cold feed and realized to have some chance still, he must conserved his army at all costs. There is some sense in that, though I believe a typical blizzard withdrawal strategy as usual or a bit faster would have done better.

This way Michael not only can built and train his army unmolested and set up sequential fort lines that will cost Pelton at least some casualties and morale while growing Soviet morale thru helds, but Michael gets to play his one true big "ace", the card that the Russians had against all their enemies before and after Napoleon, twice: dealing ground for time and choosing the battles. On the other hand, even with a predicted 8M Army, it still suffers from ill morale and Wehrmacht, with preserved forces, can eat away at least small chunks. All Pelton might need to do now is to slow or pause SHC growth by that, keep morale up, and slug it out to the end. It may be well possible that even with a Red giant, but no guards/good morale, it may be a tough challenge to reach Berlin? This game has still some surprises, so do Pelton and Michael...

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/8/2012 10:49:02 AM   
timmyab

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Fishbed
I am pretty sure he's mainly just gonna turtle and counter, he has no "territory" expectations for 1942 (no hope for Leningrad, Moscow or the likes) and his first goal will be to shatter the tip of MT's sword. Offensives will just made in such ways that he will try to eat and digest giant localized chunks of the Red Army while building Siegfried lines every 20km or so for the next three years.

Sounds like he's going to bore his opponent into submission.What a depressing thought.
The really depressing part though is if it actually works.My experience with the 44 campaign is that it's a tough grind to break down the German army in 44 once it's front solidifies.

< Message edited by timmyab -- 10/8/2012 11:33:34 AM >

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/8/2012 1:43:35 PM   
Flaviusx


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What's reckless is what Pelton is doing. He may indeed bore Michael to death because Michael is an impatient sort, but short of that...

Janh, there is no German defense that cannot be cracked by sufficient applications of firepower. Pile on enough arty divisions and they will crack it. It's just a question of time. Pile on the maximum amount of rifle corps, set lots of stuff to reserve, pile on the maximum number of possible artillery divisions, fly in lots of shturmoviks, rinse and repeat. Do this in as many places as possible, preferably on a given stretch of the front to destroy the integrity of the fort line in that section. You will eventually get past the level 3 and 4 stuff and reach the level 2 forts and from there on things go south.

If you feel frisky you can add soak off attacks to this, but it shouldn't be necessary.




< Message edited by Flaviusx -- 10/8/2012 1:50:41 PM >


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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/8/2012 3:25:28 PM   
Marquo


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Once the Sovietrs start building infantry corps in 43' it becomes very difficult for the Axis. The Axis must dig a series of level 3 forts every several hexes all the way back to Berlin....

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/8/2012 10:02:42 PM   
Michael T


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You need not be concerned with my staying power for this. I am resolute in my determination to wipe Pelton's Reich from the map. I am just frustated with his attitude as it is so alien to mine. When I sit down to play a game on Russia from 1941 to 1945 as German I am aiming to conquer Russia in 41/42 and maybe 43. If I fail then I defend. To run away in September 1941 is totally nuts. From both the standpoint of why I play and from the point that if I felt that the only way for Germany to win or draw a game was to do this thing I would not enter in to it in the first place. And I do not think that. When I get my chance as Axis against Pelton I will prove otherwise.

Anyway no more complaining from me. I am spending this down time practising and testing theories for round 2 and 3 of this fight. He will get rolled. The hammer and sickle will be flying above Berlin in 1944.

< Message edited by Michael T -- 10/8/2012 10:05:43 PM >


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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/8/2012 10:41:30 PM   
carlkay58

 

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Ah, but if you win in 1944, all we will hear is how the game is rigged to favor the Soviets! There does have to be a rematch with the two of you switching sides to determine who has the better strategy.

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RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/8/2012 11:50:40 PM   
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Pelton seems to be playing this for what it is, a bunch of numbers vrs a bunch of numbers with no real regard for it being a historical simulation/game. I see his logic and I see yours.

What makes the whole thing so interesting is the stark contrast of the 2 differing opinions.

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Post #: 178
RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/9/2012 12:42:10 AM   
Flaviusx


Posts: 6295
Joined: 9/9/2009
From: Southern California
Status: online
But it doesn't make a lick of sense even purely as an exercise in numbers.



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(in reply to Ketza)
Post #: 179
RE: Razing the Reich (No Pelton) - 10/9/2012 1:02:54 AM   
Tophat1812

 

Posts: 1594
Joined: 1/16/2006
Status: offline
This is something that will need the practical application of reality through playing it out.Even after its played I foresee a postmortem of denial waiting in the wings. Not a slam on Pelton just an observation of the personalities. And i am rooting for Pelton to pull off a minor miracle and shut you all up..........

(in reply to Flaviusx)
Post #: 180
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