From: Alberta, Canada
ORIGINAL: Mike Solli
I've also decided to expand a number of LI factories in the Home Islands. I've always tinkered with the idea of this and it seems like the kind of game to try some new things. This obviously is a long term investment and won't pay dividends until early 1945. I'm not going to go crazy here, maybe just enough LI to compensate for the loss of some HI centres I expect to lose sooner than later throughout the Empire.
Just to put it into perspective, if you increase 1 LI factory today, it'll break even on 9 Jan 45.
Yeah, in stock scenarios there just is no economic justification to expand LI. That 1000 supply could have been used (or saved) somewhere else. Helping to keep a base over 20K to allow upgrades for example ....
Hmm, I'm going to disagree with both Mike Solli and PaxMondo who are reiterating the commonly accepted wisdom.
For years I have seen the statement that it takes 1000 days to start to get a positive ROI. That is a quite simplistic statement which is not correct. It fails to take into account externalities which are not immediately visible to a player. It fails to properly take into account opportunity cost associated with the externalities; instead everyone just focuses on the direct opportunity cost. In the overall scheme of things the externalities are often far more important than the direct, narrow issues which players focus on when stating that it requires 1000 days to break even.
Then there is also the issue that in military matters, sometimes the best and most devastating to the enemy actions to take are not the economically most efficient ones.
There will be no more talk of expanding LI in this AAR
Gah! Sorry about that, SqzMyLemon!
First off, I think expanding LI can provide pretty decent returns if invested in from day one. I agree with Alfred that there is more to increasing LI than just looking at it in terms of spending 1000 supply/point and that it will take three years to fully pay off the investment. I think you start seeing returns well before that and I'll explain below. Both Erik and Andre have made comments previously that makes me think they also agree there could be some merit to increasing LI to compensate for losing HI centres and reduced fuel available to run HI in the late game.
I've invested heavily in aircraft R&D and don't feel at this stage I can also expand LI to any large degree. Therefore, I've decided not to expand LI this game, because I think it's too late to expand it in the kind of numbers that will make a difference.
Here's my take:
I believe Japan has a supply surplus of somewhere between 20k-25k at game start. For simplicity I'll go with a 20k surplus.
If I was to expand LI, lets start with expanding 20 LI factories one point per day. So that would be 20 new LI production points at a cost of 20k supply. I would do this for 5 months until the end of April 1942. Let's assume 30.5 days/month (I know Feb screws that up). So, in 30.5 days I've created 610 new LI points. Over the 5 month period I've increased this number to 3050 new LI points. I now stop expanding LI. So here are the numbers:
20 LI/day expansion costs 20k supply/day
20 LI/day x 30.5 days = 610 new LI points (cost in supply = 610k)
610 LI/day x 5 months = 3050 new LI points (cost in supply = 3,050,000)
Lets say we're all repaired and running by the end of April. So, after the first year you'll produce supply from these expanded LI factories to the tune of 1,116,300 supply/year.
3050 LI x 30.5 days x 12 months = 1,116,300 supply.
So by May 1943 you've recovered 36% of your initial 3,050,000 supply cost to expand LI.
By May 1944 you've recovered another 36% for a grand total of 2,232,600 supply.
By May 1945 you've theoretically recovered all 3,050,000 supply spent in your initial investment.
So after all is said and done you've increased Japan's supply production potential by 3050 LI factories producing 3050 supply/day by May 1945. That's an increase of 15.25% of the original supply surplus.
What about resources? Well, 610 LI factories will require an additional 9150 resources/day or 279,075 resources/month.
The question of whether to expand LI in the Home Islands or China needs to be answered. I think you do a combination of both. If you choose Japan you must factor in the fuel cost of importing the extra resources over and above what is already required to run the economy with no expansion.
China makes a lot of sense. It's swimming in resources and requires no fuel expenditure unless you decide to export supply to Japan. Your expanded supply centres should last a long time safe from Allied bombing or recapture.
I'm not a statistics or economic guru and my analysis is simplistic. I'm not accounting for all the variables applicable to how the LI expansion was conducted. Just from my example there's an increase of 3050 supply generated per day in either Japan, China or a combination of both by May 1945 requiring no fuel to produce other than that used in transporting any additional resources needed in the Home Islands. Another thing is you don't have to wait until May 1945 to have been receiving the benefit. Who knows how that supply you've recovered may best be used over the next three years and what a boon to possibly have an extra 1000-3000 supply per day in 1945 after investing way back in 1942, which is the time you can most afford to.
I totally agree with Alfred that the benefits of expanding LI shouldn't simply be reduced to the argument that it costs 1000 supply points and takes three years to break even so don't do it. Depending on your strategy and how you prefer to expand you economy or focus on R&D, I think expanding LI could play a major role in the late game. As far as I know it's never been tried, but that doesn't mean that it couldn't have a major impact on Japan's ability to last after the fuel and oil is gone.
Just my thoughts. Please feel free to point out anything I haven't accounted for or if I've made errors in my simple calculations.
< Message edited by SqzMyLemon -- 1/30/2013 8:43:26 PM >
Luck is the residue of design - John Milton
Don't mistake lack of talent for genius - Peter Steele (Type O Negative)