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Exactly what my fears are about...

 
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Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 2:42:33 AM   
wodin


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I've mentioned a few times now the advent of tablets coupled with the next gen consoles could spell the biggest battle us PC gamers may have. The issue I said was that the hardware wont be selling anymore, no one will be buying PC's and their upgrades like graphics cards, well a few will buy not enough to keep it viable to continue to produce new tech. Then throw the possible advent of cloud gaming into the mix. Again here we have a game delivery system where people don't need to upgrade their hardware, we will be totally reliant on the cloud hardware and I bet that stagnates as much as console tech does.

I was hoping my fears are unfounded, just the normal PC is doomed rubbish, however this time I'm not so sure. I never thought consoles alone could finish of the PC. However tablets and smart phones alongside consoles, thats a different matter all together. Eventually we will all either have tablets of console like TV boxes that you access cloud gaming through. This means the advancements we have seen in graphics and CPU power will slow down, to possible stagnation. Who will be producing this new hardware when no one will be buying it or even have a gaming system that you can upgrade. I very much doubt the Cloud service will keep updating there hardware. Infact it's likely they will end up making their own hardware as AMD and NVidea will concentrate on the tablet market.

Anyway this article for me is the warning sign...

http://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/horsemen-of-the-post-pc-apocalypse-what-signs-of-a-waning-pc-industry-really-mean/

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 3:28:54 AM   
flanyboy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wodin

I've mentioned a few times now the advent of tablets coupled with the next gen consoles could spell the biggest battle us PC gamers may have. The issue I said was that the hardware wont be selling anymore, no one will be buying PC's and their upgrades like graphics cards, well a few will buy not enough to keep it viable to continue to produce new tech. Then throw the possible advent of cloud gaming into the mix. Again here we have a game delivery system where people don't need to upgrade their hardware, we will be totally reliant on the cloud hardware and I bet that stagnates as much as console tech does.

I was hoping my fears are unfounded, just the normal PC is doomed rubbish, however this time I'm not so sure. I never thought consoles alone could finish of the PC. However tablets and smart phones alongside consoles, thats a different matter all together. Eventually we will all either have tablets of console like TV boxes that you access cloud gaming through. This means the advancements we have seen in graphics and CPU power will slow down, to possible stagnation. Who will be producing this new hardware when no one will be buying it or even have a gaming system that you can upgrade. I very much doubt the Cloud service will keep updating there hardware. Infact it's likely they will end up making their own hardware as AMD and NVidea will concentrate on the tablet market.

Anyway this article for me is the warning sign...

http://www.digitaltrends.com/computing/horsemen-of-the-post-pc-apocalypse-what-signs-of-a-waning-pc-industry-really-mean/

Maybe but I am not worried about HP. They will go the route of IBM and shift to software development. PC making is no longer the high margin market it use to be. Only apple can survive with higher pricing because of their fantastic marketing and brand loyalty. Everyone else must compete on price. That's why you see the established HP and Dell suffering while the bargain companies like Asus (who I love btw), Lenovo and Acer doing well. HP will get out of the PC industry eventually but that has less to do with the PC industry as a whole and more to do with wanting to chase higher margin products, software is that product.

It's possible this cloud gaming and what not may eventually supplant what we have today. That said we're talking 10-20 years down the road at the earliest. Last year was the first year that digital music sales actually surpassed hard copy CD sales. Just because that might be where the industry is going long term doesn't mean it will happen over time. Shifts to cloud services from traditionally hard copy services will take a long time and PC's wont disappear overnight.

That said most people I know who own a Tablet use it more for mobile browsing and streaming. Everyone I know still also has a PC. I think the PC will stay around, people will just upgrade less often but they will still continue to have a PC of some kind. The industry may consolidate but a smaller PC industry just means the market will correct for perhaps an over saturation of PCs. With Tablets a family of 4 doesn't need 2 laptops and 1 desktop. They might just need 1 Desktop or Laptop. I think that's a bigger example of whats happening, not people phasing out PC's all together. But it's still going to be a big industry for a long time to come.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 3:41:02 AM   
junk2drive


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Anyone that has had computers for a long time knows about paying $1000 or more for a system that is out of date in a few years. I think people are getting leery of running out to buy yet another box. Plus the bad economy. Business that are still in business will replace systems from time to time but are usually frugal about it. I think the home market will change as people question what they use a PC for and can it be done on a less expensive appliance. Non gamers can probably get by with a larger display phone or pad/tablet for daily use and stretch the life of the PC for now to do taxes and pay bills and whatever other non graphic heavy things they do.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 4:42:00 AM   
flanyboy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: junk2drive

Anyone that has had computers for a long time knows about paying $1000 or more for a system that is out of date in a few years. I think people are getting leery of running out to buy yet another box. Plus the bad economy. Business that are still in business will replace systems from time to time but are usually frugal about it. I think the home market will change as people question what they use a PC for and can it be done on a less expensive appliance. Non gamers can probably get by with a larger display phone or pad/tablet for daily use and stretch the life of the PC for now to do taxes and pay bills and whatever other non graphic heavy things they do.
That's kind of my point. People will still own a pc for a long time but the # of pcs per house may decline and the frequency of purchases will decline but you'll still see a pc industry for a long time.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 6:43:23 AM   
PizzaMan


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I see a time when I will do all my internet activities on a Television.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 2:07:31 PM   
wodin


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But will there be enough hardcore PC gamers be around to keep say the graphic card industry alive?

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 2:52:41 PM   
junk2drive


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No but as long as there are CGI movies and other graphic projects there will be demand. Maybe MAC only though.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 3:05:51 PM   
Lützow


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quote:

ORIGINAL: wodin

I've mentioned a few times now the advent of tablets coupled with the next gen consoles could spell the biggest battle us PC gamers may have. The issue I said was that the hardware wont be selling anymore, no one will be buying PC's and their upgrades like graphics cards, well a few will buy not enough to keep it viable to continue to produce new tech.


Well, how do you think all the content for mobile devices get created, on touchscreens with finger wipes?

I don't see tablets displacing PC games more than it already happened by consoles during the past 5 years. And I consider it as a good thing to not be forced anymore for purchasing a brand new hyper-driven hexacore processor every 12 months, just to run the latest generation of meaningless Egoshooter's. Who cares about steadily rising power if it merely translates to improved graphics, while the gameplay itself regresses to C64 arcade titles, because the industry targets a mentally challenged audience, incapable of reading longer manuals or focusing for more than 15 minutes?

Having said that, tablets are not a synonym for dumbing down. The interface does not allow precision and speed of a mouse, but that doesn't affect slow paced games. Actually, boardgame-style titles would run pretty well there, if the engine can handle seamless zooming.

< Message edited by Lützow -- 7/29/2012 3:06:26 PM >

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 6:06:02 PM   
parusski


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quote:

Business that are still in business will replace systems from time to time but are usually frugal about it.


That is very true junk2drive. The company I work for has 553 locations and most are using pc's that are 5-6 years old(running XP of course), and my budget for the IT department does not have much allotted for replacing the desktops.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/29/2012 6:20:33 PM   
junk2drive


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With wireless and cloud I can see companies getting cheap workstations that look like an iMac, no box, maybe no hard drive, that connect to a mainframe. Just like we had in the 80s only wired.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/30/2012 2:52:14 AM   
flanyboy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: parusski

quote:

Business that are still in business will replace systems from time to time but are usually frugal about it.


That is very true junk2drive. The company I work for has 553 locations and most are using pc's that are 5-6 years old(running XP of course), and my budget for the IT department does not have much allotted for replacing the desktops.

Company I work for has about 9,000 employees and at least that many computers. We are still almost all on XP but are slowly transitioning all over to Windows 7 in the next 2-3 years.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/30/2012 12:49:00 PM   
wodin


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I saw some footage of supposedly in game graphics of one of the next gen consoles. Looked amazing. It really did.PC's have never had this much competition when a new console has come out.

Also I understand alot of power is wasted these days, however at least it's there for someone to do something with. Come cloud gaming we will be stuck with the same tech for many years I expect.

I want to have my dream wargame before I die. I want a tactical game with graphics on par of the current Olympics adverts. Set in Stalingrad. With detailed gameplay and tons of chrome. If that comes out some time in the future I'm happy, however with cloud gaming I see that dream possibly going out of the window.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/30/2012 1:08:01 PM   
Yogi the Great


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Unfortunately I think it's clear that Desk-top and even lap tops PC's are on the way out. Software stores and even stores like Best Buy offer little or no PC games and have moved to Play Station, x-box etc. The number of actual desktop PCs in stores continue to dwindle. Even advertisements for the Desk Tops have greatly reduced. While I don't want to give up my desk top and 23" screen to play my games on, market forces may make that harder and harder. When desk top purcahses get lower and lower, will the price rise, or will they disappear? That may be the question.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/30/2012 2:05:17 PM   
parusski


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yogi the Great

Unfortunately I think it's clear that Desk-top and even lap tops PC's are on the way out. Software stores and even stores like Best Buy offer little or no PC games and have moved to Play Station, x-box etc. The number of actual desktop PCs in stores continue to dwindle. Even advertisements for the Desk Tops have greatly reduced. While I don't want to give up my desk top and 23" screen to play my games on, market forces may make that harder and harder. When desk top purcahses get lower and lower, will the price rise, or will they disappear? That may be the question.


Yogi, I see you have been reading PC's And Why They Are Being Pushed Aside By Modern Washing Machines, S. Ambrose, 2011. You make a more succinct argument than he does, but you forgot the washing machines.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/30/2012 2:12:00 PM   
wodin


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Yogi, the lack of shelf space is down to the fact that most gamers buy online now DL games.

There hasn't been any shelf space for PC games for years, it's nothing new. Also it's not a sign of the PC's demise.

The signs are lack of hardware sales as more people look towards tablets, plus when the next gen consoles come out those who want FPS super graphics etc will certainly get it, as I said what I saw was pretty stunning.

So for your indie and most likely future wargames you will have a tablet, for your fancy graphics FPS\RPG games you will have your consoles (with those terrible controllers, if they where released with a keyboard and mouse it wouldn't be so bad).

Eventually the next consoles could be cloud based box's. Though in my opinion this cloud based gaming is really a bad thing for all those hardware manufacturers, I'm surprised they would do their hardest to scupper it somewhow.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/30/2012 4:01:41 PM   
Mobius


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How secure is the cloud?  Is there someone out there looking at your data or usage?   I don't post many messages on FB because I don't want them scanned, word indexed and archived for advertising or anything else.

< Message edited by Mobius -- 7/30/2012 4:02:40 PM >

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/31/2012 7:13:36 AM   
flanyboy

 

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Also might I ask what are we really afraid of? Console style gaming is going to continue and graphics will continue to improve on tablets and phones. I think you will see integrated CPU chips get better and better as time goes on. Integrated chips are already making big strides.

Also most games on this site are more RAM intensive than they are GPU intensive. Matrix wouldn't be negatively affected by a shift to tablets really as most games are RAM intensive and integrated chips could easily render the game itself. And heck the new SIII phone has 2GB of RAM so that's something all devices will be having a lot of.

As I said before the PC is safe for another 10 years likely before it's really in danger, but the industry wont die, it will shrink and shift but it wont die. That said by that time odds are integrated GPU's will be far better than discrete GPUs are now. So we gamers might not even notice a difference.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/31/2012 8:24:49 AM   
bairdlander

 

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what cloud?what is it

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/31/2012 12:14:18 PM   
hadberz


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quote:

ORIGINAL: bairdlander

what cloud?what is it




Imagine everything on your harddrive, but it's all kept on the internet. This allows every computer, smartphone, tablet you own access to the data. Sounds great on paper, then you start thinking about security, net outages, or going overseas areas that has no net. Doesn't sound so good then.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 7/31/2012 11:26:19 PM   
wodin


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quote:

ORIGINAL: flanyboy


Also most games on this site are more RAM intensive than they are GPU intensive. Matrix wouldn't be negatively affected by a shift to tablets really as most gamAs I said before the PC is safe for another 10 years likely before it's really in danger, but the industry wont die, it will shrink and shift but it wont die. That said by that time odds are integrated GPU's will be far better than discrete GPUs are now. So we gamers might not even notice a difference.


Yes in time integrated graphic will be as good as the top range graphics we have now. However imagine how good the non integrated graphics would have been buy then. Either way your setting tech back five or more years.

Also 2 gig ram isn't enough. I had 2 gig with Win 7 and it was a pain. Only when increased (quite cheaply aswell) to 8 gig did I notice a huge difference.

It's the fact with tablets we have to buy a whole new tablet everytime when we want to upgrade setting us back a fair amount of money. Where with the PC you can do it bit by bit really quite cheaply compared to buying a brand new tablet. the only benefit a tablet has is portability. However I dont really go anywhere, so it's no benefit at all for me. Juts got crappier tech in it than a decent desktop.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/1/2012 3:34:26 PM   
flanyboy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: wodin


quote:

ORIGINAL: flanyboy


Also most games on this site are more RAM intensive than they are GPU intensive. Matrix wouldn't be negatively affected by a shift to tablets really as most gamAs I said before the PC is safe for another 10 years likely before it's really in danger, but the industry wont die, it will shrink and shift but it wont die. That said by that time odds are integrated GPU's will be far better than discrete GPUs are now. So we gamers might not even notice a difference.


Yes in time integrated graphic will be as good as the top range graphics we have now. However imagine how good the non integrated graphics would have been buy then. Either way your setting tech back five or more years.

Also 2 gig ram isn't enough. I had 2 gig with Win 7 and it was a pain. Only when increased (quite cheaply aswell) to 8 gig did I notice a huge difference.

It's the fact with tablets we have to buy a whole new tablet everytime when we want to upgrade setting us back a fair amount of money. Where with the PC you can do it bit by bit really quite cheaply compared to buying a brand new tablet. the only benefit a tablet has is portability. However I dont really go anywhere, so it's no benefit at all for me. Juts got crappier tech in it than a decent desktop.

I wasn't saying 2GB is a lot just that phones are rapidly catching up with game requirements so why not develop them? Phone tech is outstripping gaming requirements or development for things designed just for phones. It's starting to rival whats needed on lower end pc games. It only makes sense that more advanced games will start to show up on phones and tablets.

PC's can easily have 16 GB or 32 GB or RAM but virtually no one needs or has that. Something between 4-12 seems to be the norm. I see phones catching up with PCs and developers being a bigger threat to the PC than anything. Development in all fields just isn't keeping pace with technological development.

With the tech available developers could do way more than they are doing. Developers could be largely to blame for PC's not being optimized and thus allowing other technologies to infringe on their market space.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/2/2012 1:57:51 PM   
junk2drive


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Here is a report on PC gaming dying

http://hothardware.com/News/ESA-Figures-Prove-What-Weve-Suspected-For-Years-Classic-PC-Gaming-is-Dying/

Although is seems to focus on casual games.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/6/2012 7:33:58 AM   
flanyboy

 

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Also for what it is worth, while sales are slumping in the USA and Europe people are not shifting to Tablets in China and other emerging markets where many people still don't own PCs. PC sales are still growing in China. I expect to see China and the developing world much of which is still able to expand the PC market without over saturating like the USA has to hold up the PC market for some time and to allow us to not to have to worry about equipment no longer being manufacturing.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/7/2012 2:47:22 PM   
Perturabo


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I only have a 9 years old PC. Which I have bought used 3 years ago. No tablet, no smartphone.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/8/2012 1:42:06 AM   
Joe D.


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quote:

ORIGINAL: wodin

Yogi, the lack of shelf space is down to the fact that most gamers buy online now DL games ...


Now, even the disappearing PC shelf space sells online, down-loadable games.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/8/2012 6:37:50 AM   
jomni


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Cool graphics is overrated.  We didn't have that in the 80's and 90's.  :)

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/8/2012 4:02:51 PM   
Perturabo


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quote:

ORIGINAL: jomni

Cool graphics is overrated.  We didn't have that in the 80's and 90's.  :)

Actually, we did have them.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/8/2012 10:05:28 PM   
parusski


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Perturabo

quote:

ORIGINAL: jomni

Cool graphics is overrated.  We didn't have that in the 80's and 90's.  :)

Actually, we did have them.


Yeah, they were COOL!, back then.

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/15/2012 1:28:41 AM   
wodin


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http://uk.ign.com/articles/2012/08/13/australias-game-development-renaissance?utm_source=Monday%20newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=8.14%20Dynamic%20Newsletter_6539_314199_314254&utm_content=507379589

another depressing link in my opinion..

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RE: Exactly what my fears are about... - 8/15/2012 2:05:50 AM   
danlongman

 

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PC gaming has been "dying" longer than it has been alive.
At least the games keep getting better, not overall, but
a good new game comes along more than once a year.
Wargames will be made for PC as long as people will buy them.
Fans who buy two games in a lifetime and play them to the
exclusion of all others are doing nothing for the hobby. Like nothing.
I am in Kanookistan and I remember paying $90 in Kanukbux
for a retail copy of an SSI game in the 80"s. Now everybody
thinks they deserve state-of-the-art niche games for 2 dollars on steam.
We may have to pay for our toys again. You can get stuff for free
today that you could only have dreamed of just a few years back.
An incredible product like Battles From the Bulge comes out that only
us groggies will buy and the audience screams to high heaven that it costs money!
This short attention span, selfish, instant gratification for free state of mind will kill
anything which requires time and effort.
Cheers

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