Aug 1 42
Very, very bleak for the good guys. Moscow has fallen, Stalingrad is in the crosshairs of the Wermacht now, and it has been flanked - soon to be cut off from any rail connection to the rest of the country. Same with Leningrad. Even along the Finnish front, the Finns are relentlessly pushing forward to cut off the rail line to Artic ports.
Not that that US is sending any aid! The US Congress dawdles, and has not approved lend-lease.
In North Africa, the Italians with minimal German support, have stabilized the situation in Tunisia. If one or two German armored corps were transferred to Tunisia, the Allied front would crumble quickly.
The Battle of the Atlantic is critical now, and for the moment totally in the favor of the AXIS. The US has sent a fleet with 5 escort carriers to the southern waters, in an attempt to punish the Italian sub fleet, which has completely cut off all supplies from the British Colonies. The UK is being slowly strangled.
In the strategic bombing campaign, both the British and the US continue raids over France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Luftwaffe fighters have so far been successfull in defending the Ruhr industrial area, causing devastating losses for Allied bombers.
In short, mid 42, the Soviet Union is about to collapse, and the Western Allies are stymied.