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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes?

 
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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 6:41:44 PM   
balto

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 3/4/2006
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Also, see that Gamble card under Manstein. I have never had that fail, but it can. When it works, man, you get a HUGE bonus. Give it a whirl. Of course if it fails and you get negative numbers, well, I will delete this post so it appears you screwed up.

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Post #: 31
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 11:36:37 PM   
british exil


Posts: 1257
Joined: 5/4/2006
From: Lower Saxony Germany
Status: offline 		Olivier.

Tres bon. Very intersting AAR, like the way you bring in your thoughts and plans.

Keep up the good work. I'm sure it is enjoyed by many here in the forum.

Bon Voyage.

Mat

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Post #: 32
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/29/2012 4:59:17 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		Balto, you are right about this OOB window. The panzers were not at full at the beginning. I will check that.
I will follow you about this "naval war". But do you think I could fear a soviet amphibious operation in the future ? What should I leave in Crimea ? Some german divisions or only axis allies...Any thoughts would be appreciated !
3 to 1...I have red that when you want to attack, a 3/1 factor is the least that you need...
About entrenchment, I have red (I think ComradeP AAR) that the autoentrenchment of the soviets could be to high...right now I find that everything works good. Now, when I will play the soviet, I will try my best to give enough time to my troops to dig. That what I did when I played the french or polish in DC1 and it works very well.

Thanks british exil, I am in vacation right now so I have the time to do this AAR. Don't hesitate to give your thoughts and maybe a plan so to take Rostov !

< Message edited by olivier34 -- 7/29/2012 5:01:34 PM >

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Post #: 33
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/29/2012 5:04:21 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		The gamble card ! Never tried it ? Will it works every time ? I will do some testing...but if I use it and it fails, you will be good for the "peleton d'execution"
If it works,

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Post #: 34
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/30/2012 10:39:52 AM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		8 July,
Less battles now. I played the turn in 1h15 min (the previous one in 1h30).
I begin to clean the pockets.





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Post #: 35
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/30/2012 10:40:43 AM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		8 July
Center.





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Post #: 36
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/30/2012 10:47:44 AM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		8 July, south





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Post #: 37
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/30/2012 6:50:19 PM   
Blind Sniper


Posts: 609
Joined: 8/9/2008
From: Turin, Italy
Status: offline 		Olivier, mirror post from the other AAR:

I would add my compliments too, you are the first players posting the big campaign.
I'm following both AARs therefore I will be neutral.

Congrats for your pockets, you are doing a good job.
How many replacements do you get every turn? Because your losses seem a bit high, every battle that you lost 1000 men is a Russian victory in the long term.

quote:

But do you think I could fear a soviet amphibious operation in the future ? What should I leave in Crimea ? Some german divisions or only axis allies...Any thoughts would be appreciated !


I don't know how many units but take into consideration that he controls the sea and can attempt an amphibious operations, not sure if is worth.

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Post #: 38
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/30/2012 7:14:17 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		hi blind sniper,
i will study my losses closely when I have time. My first 4 turns have been costly. I had to break the front line...turns 6 and 8 of july have been more calm. I have mostly move my units and attack only if I had a good superiority. I have use less oil as well. But the soviets are holding a line, withdrawing in good order. Does my opponent launch to the front every units he can get ? I hope so...
I have played a lot of time Dc1 and I have allways move my forces around if I could instead of attacking. Here, I am not in this situation.
It seems that the taken of Voronetch should be possible without to much fighting. Now, I have not decided if I will launch a full assault toward Rostov. I like to play test the power of von manstein cards in this mission but it will be costly in men. I have test a small attack on this sector but the soviets are in the open. On a town hex if the soviets had time to dig, I know that it will be much more difficult...so I may decide to turn Rostov instead and encircle it. it has to fall the 5th of August.

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Post #: 39
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/31/2012 1:02:27 AM   
balto

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 3/4/2006
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Great.

Your post #35. You say that the 11th and 24th Pz take the rail, yet both are not on Rail hexes. How did you do that? And if they just de-railed, wouldn't their readiness be reallly really low - yet you have them at the front lines?

Also in post #35, the two units circled in Blue with the AIR indicator over them. I am a little unclear. It appears that you attacked them by AIR this turn to help you with an attack next turn.., a sort of preliminary air raid. I am sure this caused very few casualties, so I am assuming you did this to lower Entrenchment and Readiness? If that is the case, doesn't the unit recover most of that by next turn?

Post #37, how did you get 2v1? With the Armor, how come that is not a 3 v 1?

Thanks again, looking forward to the next turn.

< Message edited by balto -- 7/31/2012 1:08:16 AM >

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Post #: 40
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/31/2012 1:07:15 AM   
balto

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 3/4/2006
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		You attacked the Fleet. Let me guess, you caused zero damage but lost a plane or two due to the Heavy Flak from those powerful ships.

Also, the gamble card success is based on one of the leader ratings. I forget which one, but Manstein's percentage is REALLY high, that is why a GAMBLE would work with him. With other commanders, I am not sure I would try the GAMBLE card.

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Post #: 41
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/31/2012 10:43:03 AM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: balto

Great.

Your post #35. You say that the 11th and 24th Pz take the rail, yet both are not on Rail hexes. How did you do that? And if they just de-railed, wouldn't their readiness be reallly really low - yet you have them at the front lines?
I meant that they take control of the rail hexes...

Also in post #35, the two units circled in Blue with the AIR indicator over them. I am a little unclear. It appears that you attacked them by AIR this turn to help you with an attack next turn.., a sort of preliminary air raid. I am sure this caused very few casualties, so I am assuming you did this to lower Entrenchment and Readiness? If that is the case, doesn't the unit recover most of that by next turn?
Right, I do that but I should check if it is really useful. I have done that a lot in DC1.

Post #37, how did you get 2v1? With the Armor, how come that is not a 3 v 1?
The armor unit represents only a few tanks (around 20).
Thanks again, looking forward to the next turn.


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Post #: 42
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/31/2012 11:23:46 AM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: balto

You attacked the Fleet. Let me guess, you caused zero damage but lost a plane or two due to the Heavy Flak from those powerful ships.

I have lost 5 planes when this soviet cruiser bombed my airfield . I am launching some air attacks to test the results we can get and because I like it

Also, the gamble card success is based on one of the leader ratings. I forget which one, but Manstein's percentage is REALLY high, that is why a GAMBLE would work with him. With other commanders, I am not sure I would try the GAMBLE card.

I will play the camble card with Manstein. This will be very fun for sure.


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Post #: 43
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/31/2012 11:30:31 AM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		July 10. Huge rain have falled. Mud everywhere but I see how I have been lucky to have this beautiful weather until this turn.
Some of my HQs were to far from their units...some units are having problem of supply. I will be much more careful now. You can't predict the weather, can you ?
The soviets have withdraw one hex almost everywhere and they are defending in depth (three rows) carpet ?
The pockets are almost cleared. A lot of prisoners are sent west.
I attack four citys and except the one on the screenshot, they are all taken easily.




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< Message edited by olivier34 -- 7/31/2012 11:31:12 AM >

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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/31/2012 11:33:25 AM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		10 July,
I cross the Don but I did a few mistakes here. I have hesitate to attack.




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/31/2012 11:34:52 AM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		10 July,
I have three objectives and I would like to get 2 on 3 ontime. Rostov sounds the hard one to crack.




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/31/2012 8:06:36 PM   
jjdenver

 

Posts: 1227
Joined: 11/2/2007
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Blind Sniper
How many replacements do you get every turn? Because your losses seem a bit high, every battle that you lost 1000 men is a Russian victory in the long term.


I think his losses are not bad at all. Really I think that the results Olivier is getting are a "dream" situation for the Axis. I doubt we will ever see better results so don't be spoiled by this Axis AAR and think that you will get similar results as Axis. The Soviet losses here are simply so high that Axis losses are pretty much irrelevant in this AAR. The Axis historically I would think had higher losses than Olivier has experienced so far and I think that he is advancing quickly as well as maintaining a very good loss ratio so if this AAR doesn't result in an Axis victory I find it hard to see how the Axis could possibly win.....of course it's early so we'll see if these sorts of results can be maintained. :)

The Soviets do get tons of reinforcements and replacements so Keunert could rally later.

Also Olivier, I really like your strategy for Rostov. It's exactly what I had in mind as Germas as well - a 2 pronged attack just north of the city as well as farther north along the road/rail network. I'm interested to see how it works out.

< Message edited by jjdenver -- 7/31/2012 8:33:01 PM >

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Post #: 47
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/1/2012 7:28:44 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		I will play the next turn Sunday. (Keunert has taken some vacation, he deserves it ) Too bad that I can't reopen the turn to analyse my losses in detail.
I would say that I agree with jjDenver regarding my losses.
I may have lost a lot of troops but I think that I have put the axis on a good position and the soviets have lost a lot. And it seems that Keunert is moving all what he has to the front so I have to fight my way through them but if he has not built some kind of line of defense in the rear with some reserves, when the front will break there won't be major battles before september...
I may get 2 on 3 of my objectives, maybe all three. 16 or 24 prestige points so I will get more pps per turn so more reinforcement if I want.

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Post #: 48
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/2/2012 9:35:27 AM   
Blind Sniper


Posts: 609
Joined: 8/9/2008
From: Turin, Italy
Status: offline 		Uhm...maybe you are right about losses, in the first turns I think they were a bit high then you made a good job cleaning the pockets for very few losses.

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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/5/2012 12:52:02 AM   
abulbulian


Posts: 699
Joined: 3/31/2005
Status: offline 		What does the 'Freedom Of Action' card actually do for you?

Great AAR BTW, simply wonderful presentation!



Thanks

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Post #: 50
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/6/2012 2:03:35 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		Freedom action card "All troops of the visited HQ will receive an offensive and defensive bonus as well as
extra AP, depending on the Organization ability of the commander." and played by Von Manstein this is really powerful.

Turn 8, 12 July
Up north,





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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/6/2012 2:04:57 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		Turn 8
And btw,the weather is clear again.




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/6/2012 2:06:00 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		Turn 8. Millerowo




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/6/2012 2:06:55 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		Turn 8. Rostov.




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Post #: 54
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/6/2012 2:26:25 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		12 July
Losses.




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/6/2012 2:27:49 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		12 July
Oil reserve and my very first prestige point in this game




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/6/2012 3:25:03 PM   
Blind Sniper


Posts: 609
Joined: 8/9/2008
From: Turin, Italy
Status: offline 		My congrats, the enemy has been badly beaten with this kind of losses.
Anyhow I never seen 6 hits for a single air attack

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Post #: 57
RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/7/2012 10:46:12 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		Keunert withdraw everywhere.
The 14 and 15 July, the Don is cross just south of Voronetch on 20 km and a panzer force the second line of defense. The soviets will withdraw from the city that will fall easily the 16.

The 4th panzer and the 6th army follow the soviets. Nothing much happen. The troops are happy, no more fight.

The XIV corps of the first panzer army moves toward Millerowo and the 14th panzer division is at the gate of the town the 16h (Kleist himself directed the offensive from the HQ). The panzers went through the retreating soviet forces, doing a lot of prisoners and advance 40 km, reaching the town the 16th of July. The XIV will be pulled back from the front for a week. They have been fighting for three weeks and they deserve some rest.

The 11th Army has complete his objective. The retreat in front of them was a surprise. The LVII corps took control of the rail line toward Nowocherkash and even the town north without a fight. The panzers of the 13th help the infantry to isolate a fortified area.

Von Manstein 17th army is slowly taking position. Not the time yet to launch "operation Rostov". maybe the 18th.




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 8/7/2012 10:55:50 PM   
olivier34

 

Posts: 998
Joined: 5/10/2010
From: montpellier
Status: offline 		18 July. Rain is falling. Von Manstein cancel the operation. The LIV corps is still waiting to attack. The fortified soviet area that was surronded falls in the hand of the 22nd division.

The 19 of July, a powerful arty fire hits the soviets defending the east of Nowocherkask. 4 german infantry rgts cross the river and take the position. the 13th panzer follow during the night. (made possible by playing a speed card)

Next turn, clear weather, operation Rostov will begin. We will see Von Manstein in action.





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Post #: 59
Great - 8/7/2012 11:14:41 PM   
balto

 

Posts: 651
Joined: 3/4/2006
From: Maryland
Status: offline 		Wow, your tactical knowledge of this game is light years ahead of me, and probably most of us. One of these days I wish you would do a tutorial on one of your classic 'breakthroughs of three lines of defenders.'

In your screen #54, in your opinion would it have been wise for the Russians to have moved the 388/3 and the 63rd Tank one hex to counterattack your 3 Infantry Regiments (298x2 and 73) with a 5 sided concentric attack and the Arty? Or would this just have been a foolish gamble because the Russians are too unstable?


< Message edited by balto -- 8/7/2012 11:16:34 PM >

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