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Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Keunert

 
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Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Keunert - 7/26/2012 3:16:53 PM   
olivier34

 

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Keunert and I have started this game a few days ago. I see that Keunert has started his own AAR so you must have an idea of what happend during the first two turns. I will post here some screenshots and my thoughts about it. I have just finish the third turn. I have spent an average of three hours for each of them ! I had play this scenario once (a beta version), playing both sides until the 20th of July. I never played against the AI.
My plan is very simple, "follow the orders of OKH". In the first turns I wanted to break the soviet front, do some pockets and of course move forward those objectives.

North : Here is my opening moves.





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RE: Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Ke... - 7/26/2012 3:18:10 PM   
olivier34

 

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"6th Army sector"





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RE: Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Ke... - 7/26/2012 3:19:24 PM   
olivier34

 

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17th army sector (Rostov)





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RE: Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Ke... - 7/26/2012 3:20:11 PM   
olivier34

 

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Sebastopol Fortress





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RE: Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Ke... - 7/26/2012 3:31:09 PM   
olivier34

 

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Second turn. June 30. In the first turn I have lost around 9000 men for around 40 000 soviets. I will study my loses and of course my oil strategic reserves after the three first turns. I keep all my pps for now.
The soviets conducted five attacks, most of them successful. Two Italian rgts have been easily pushed back by a soviet division...I will remember that when part of the front will be defended by my allies
Looking at the map, I realise that Keunert won't give a lot of ground without fighting. Up north the soviet threat is real.
It tooks me a lot of time to decide what I should do in this sector :





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< Message edited by olivier34 -- 7/26/2012 3:33:07 PM >

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RE: Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Ke... - 7/26/2012 3:34:27 PM   
olivier34

 

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After my moves :





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RE: Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Ke... - 7/26/2012 4:02:00 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn2 after my moves





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RE: Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Ke... - 7/26/2012 4:04:16 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 2
Playing the cards at the right now is the key. Here is an attempt to take a city that seems well defended...





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RE: Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Ke... - 7/26/2012 4:05:29 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 2, sector Swatovo,





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RE: Case Blue: Olivier(Axis) vs Keunert(soviets), no Ke... - 7/26/2012 4:07:16 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 2 south.
I have launch another assault around Sebastopol but badly conducted. The ratio was around 2/1 only. I should not have press the button "start"...I lost 1000 men...





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Question on Post #9 - 7/26/2012 7:22:46 PM   
balto

 

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Wonderful write-up.

My question is in your post #9, you appear to be making a big deal about Lititchansk and its bridge and the impact on your supply. I have three questions: (1) Would it have been more vastly more productive if you had invested in a SPEED card on LAH to simply pushback the 218/2 (in the open, behind minor river, on a rail line) than it was for you to go for the final high risk assault on Lititchansk? (2) By pushing back the 218/2, wouldn’t all three of those divisions have been pocketed? (3) It takes 4 turns to convert rail plus you have a LOT of Soviets still blocking the tracks north and south of Lititchansk. So by taking Lititchansk, that does not help you at all in the next turn or two. So how does taking Lititchansk help supply you in your immediate drive South of Swatovo?

Clearly I am missing something. Help me to understand and please keep going with this. You write really well and your screen shots are marvelous.

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RE: Question on Post #9 - 7/27/2012 8:42:42 AM   
olivier34

 

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hello Balto,
I had not enough command points to play a speed card to speedup LAH. What we don't see in the screenshot is that LAH is with two other panzers. They have cleared the area and taken position so that the next turn they will cross the river. (It will be very easy, the soviet motorised inf is not well entrench).
When they will have cross the river, they will be more than 100 aps from their supply. You are right, not a big deal, I could even use the JU 52 to supply them if needed. They will have to surround Swatovo so maybe fight two or three turns with only 75 % of supply.
Now if I am abble to take Lilitchansk and the bridge, Swatovo won't be an important objective for me anymore. I will drive my panzers east or north east instead. I did go for this town because I saw it not garrison at all, except the command HQ of the 37A. The city will fall easily the next turn and I think that the soviets won't like what will happen next (Am I to confident ? )

< Message edited by olivier34 -- 7/27/2012 8:43:26 AM >

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RE: Question on Post #9 - 7/27/2012 12:19:03 PM   
olivier34

 

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turn 3, July 2
I did some recon all along the front and began to play the north part. Here is what I have seen. Keunert has launch several attacks by my men did hold ! .




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RE: Question on Post #9 - 7/27/2012 12:24:57 PM   
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Turn 3, north after my moves. Not bad I think




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RE: Question on Post #9 - 7/27/2012 12:26:34 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 3, "center"





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RE: Question on Post #9 - 7/27/2012 12:27:40 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 3, south




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RE: Question on Post #9 - 7/27/2012 12:29:10 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 3, The Naval War




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How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/27/2012 4:07:26 PM   
balto

 

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Wow, what a great job. The BEFORE AND AFTER windows.., those are incredible! When you show the results window of the Soviet counterattacks, pure genius. The graphics and notes.., wonderful.

I think I share the feeling that most of us reading this is that you seem to have a sixth sense for how attacks will end, where most of us are still in the dark about what works and what does not.

For example, in post #13, Keunert's attack on your 385th. Soviets used rockets, and lots of tanks and you were in the open. Yet you stand firm and lost very little. The same thing on the Soviet attack of the 9th. You were in the open, Soviets had tanks, etc.., in my mind, this is typical of the results I see. Lastly, your attacks on Sebastopol (in post #16, not post #4), that too is what I think most of us are used to. It appears that a person needs OVERWHELMING superiority for any attack to work. ---- But then there is the rest of your AAR that I do not grasp how you get these results.

I know it is not luck, but what is it that sets you apart from all others? How are you able to predict these results? What do you know that most of us do not? For example,

Post #8, you were able to move 4 Soviet infantry stacks south of Lititchansk, that were adjacent to each other and one of them was in the second line. Then you were able to muster forces (with sufficient AP) to actually attack Lititansk which was in the third line!! I am not sure how that move could be duplicated. I cannot figure out all of the APs nor how you calculate the odds of what it takes to move a stack.

Post #4. You comment that you attacked a Fortified area at 3 to 1. How did you calculate 3/1 based on the Combat Results window? When you say Fortified, do you mean that there was a Fortification in that hex in addition to the Mountains? I have tried as many ways as I can think of attacking Sevastopol, and I can never get anything to work without losing 10,000 men, or something crazy like that. How do you do this? What is the math you do in your powerful brain.


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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 12:39:25 PM   
olivier34

 

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Thanks Balto ! but "pure genius" is maybe too much !
I have played DC1 a lot so maybe I have some experience of the game engine (specially when you play the case white scenario of DC1, same scale). Most of the time I know what will be the result of my attacks but I won't be abble to tell what I will lose wich is very good.
When you attack, you have to consider if your forces are in good shape, try to have the maximum bonus (concentric, divisional). Of course strike the target by air and with an arty fire. But you have also to consider what you are attacking and the soviet troops that were defending around Lititchansk arrived the previous turn. They were not entrench properly. Maybe some of them has been railed (losing 50% of readiness) so I knew that they were "easy target". I could play a card on my panzer div. The infantry in support, attacking the flanks of the gap made made theis breakthrough possible. As the soviet player I would have instead put two rgts in the city maybe a turn or two before but there was only an HQ...
Now, if you have to attack two divisions very well entrench around sebastopol, you have to trust the result of an intense fire of Arty. After that, from three hexes, two divisions with a card played on one of it will do the job. You can see the ratio in on the combat screen (exemple, 140 vs 40..).
Maybe we could start a topic in the war room about it.
"What is the math you do in your powerful brain" It is funny, I am a math teacher but I don't do math when I play this game. I love it because it is a lot intuitive.

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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 12:52:42 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 4
I forgot to tell that the weather has been perfect for those first four turns ! No heavy rain, no mud at all. , very sunny !
Writing that, I am sure that when I open the turn 5, I will get some rain...
This first game is so much fun but I would like to share my feelings about the engine. I have red the comments on the forum, very interesting, specially in ComradeP's AAR. I have played very quickly because I don't have enough time but I will try to look at some numbers so we can see if something should be change or not.
Oil reserve : It decrease slowly. I may use a card to get some more from OKH. I would like to stop my full offensive in one or two turns. My troops will need a rest for sure.
Arty : The arty has fired the first turn and the stock piles are not full yet (maybe because I moved them)
Air : After three turns, a lot of air units have a readiness around 50 or 60. The stukas specialy. I won't use them this turn.
Losses : Forgot the numbers...I will post them when I begin turn 5. I know that I have lost in six days 300 tanks ! around 20% ! It is true that I used them in attack a lot but on easy targets or in most of the fights I will lose 5 or 10 tanks sometimes. This turn, I won't use my panzers rgts...And I played a card to ask for some more to OKH. 25 pps to get 65 Pz. (I had 100 pps)
Soviet carpet : It seems that Keunert has done some line of defense, sometimes 20 km or 30 km deep. We will see how I am abble to attack that. I have played WITE a lot but what I did not like was this carpet of soviets forces...not fun...not historical...




< Message edited by olivier34 -- 7/28/2012 1:03:08 PM >

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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 1:04:04 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 4, A deep line of defense....





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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 1:12:16 PM   
olivier34

 

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turn 4, north. Huge pocket . Hope Keunert won"t break it again





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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 1:20:55 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 4, south




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 4:12:38 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 5, 6 July
Here is a screenshot of my oil reserves. Sounds good to me because I have use for the past 8 days all my units (air, tanks...).
OKH gave me a minor objective, the first one: Take Rowenku for 1 pp...
Here are the lost so far : (German / soviet )

men 25 900 / 105 000
Dive Bomber 30 / 45
Fighters 50 / 125
Level Bomber 30 / 50

Guns 200 / 1315

Heavy tank 0 / 100
Medium tank 295 / 260
Light tank 60 / 220

The losses are heavy but I can now say that around 60 soviets units are encircle and will surrender in a few days !
I was happy when I saw that Keunert decided finaly to withdraw and let my huge pocket close...




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 4:18:47 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 6, Bataille navale
Keunert joue avec mes nerfs ! . I think that I have won the first week of this campaign but I have definitly lose the naval war. I will ask the luftwaffe to sunk those insolent soviet ships.




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 4:41:01 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 6, north





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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 4:42:04 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 6. I follow the order of OKH, Let's drive to Rowenku




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 4:48:54 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn6 south




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 4:52:39 PM   
olivier34

 

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Turn 6. Von Manstein should launch his operation in two turns. Look at all those command points. I don't know yet if I will use all those cps and the 11A and try to take Rostov in a front assault. It could be very costly. I will do some recon above the city next turn.




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RE: How do you predict combat odds and outcomes? - 7/28/2012 6:38:35 PM   
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Post 24. I do not think that OOB window is what you lost. I think what that represents what you need to be at 100% (I think this may be referred to as the TOE, but I am not sure).

Unless you started with your units at 100% (which I am positive you did not), then that tool is not as useful as it could be. If there were four numbers instead of two numbers it would be very useful -- For example (1) showing what 100% of the forces should be (the way it is now), then (2) what you started the scenario with (not shown), (3) how many were replacements (not shown), and (4) what you have now (the way it is now). With the addition of numbers (2) and (3) you would be able to see what you have lost in battle and where you need to use PPs to request units.

As far as the Naval warfare in the south-- Forget it. Even if you had paid attention, the Soviet Navy is about 10 times stronger than yours. And to use Air on them is a waste. Not only are the Cruisers and Battleships armed with great AA, only the Stukas can put a small dent in those behemoths. And you need those Stukas for the land.., so just take a zero on the Naval fire and keep units away from the coast when you can. AIR can help you with Transports and unescorted subs and torpedo boats, but none of those can bombard, so forget it.

Please keep this up, its great. Back to your comment about your Post #4, I still do not see any references to how you calculate the 3 to 1. You mention 140 to 40, I do not see anything. Related to this, is 3 to 1 the MAGIC number for you?

As I read your posts, you seem to feel Entrenchment is a THE BIGGEST factor for the Soviets. Am I understanding your comments correctly?

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