Scar attacks the Soviet Union (Scar v IdahoNYer)

[Scarz]

I will try to run an AAR concurrent with IdahoNyer from the German side. I am a little worried about whether I can give a good game, as the Germans seem much trickier to play than the Russians, and my few pbem games have all been from the Soviet side.

All that said, I have the file, and will post my plan and the first turn shortly. As always, comments and suggestions are always welcome.

Scar

[Farfarer61]

I am a contrarian, and "respectfully disagreed with" on the fora, but...

I think the SS Mot Div were 'made' for Panzer raiding if you have the chance with the HQ nerfs, and even if they surrender it is easy to get them back up to elite morale ( not that I recommend this)

For the whole game, if the Soviet player is ever not "off balance" and gets the initiative you will lose, until late war when you are in mobile defence mode obviously

Always garrison

Oh, just a very minor point - redeploy the entire army starting in the mud turns back to the area not affected by the first winter rules/and leningrad so you can start 1942 with a bigger and better uber morale 5 million man army against 8 million ants with no Guards. Of course if you want to lose one million men retreating 2 hexes a turn and be congratulated on your "blizzard defence" ... Just sayin...

Oh BTW your resting army also builds your level 3 forts for 1945 for "free" and you can drop some FZ's at 50% TOE in to preserve them.

[IdahoNYer]

"Cry 'Havoc!', and let slip the dogs of war"!!!

Garrantee you will enjoy the panzer drive in 1941 - after that......well, maybe not so much...(hopefully)

Good luck buddy!

Departing Berlin at this time...

[Scarz]

AAR German
The Plan
I have delayed starting my turn, as I had been undecided on my game plan. My first inclination was to make my primary objective Leningrad, and sell out for it in the center and south. However, I suspect that IdahoNYer will expect my main drive to be centered on Leningrad, and therefore, I elected to go with a different plan. I decided on Moscow.

Concept: I have decided on a Moscow centric game plan, with a twist. I will come at Moscow from the south, and will initially focus all extra resources and reinforcements on AGS. My idea is to try and make more rapid gains in the south than normal, while giving IdahoNYer the idea I am trying for a deep southern penetration strategy. Then, when the time is right, I will swing from the south towards Moscow, hopefully from the flank and behind a bit and come at Moscow from two directions.

Army Group North: AGN will make a dash for Leningrad using the initial forces assigned to the army group. In addition, I plan on giving AGN an additional reserve army with at least three korps to hold its right flank. I will try and make AGNs attack toward Leningrad as convincing as possible, and if by some chance the Soviets fail to protect the city adequately, or I am surprisingly lucky, I may take the city. At a minimum, I want the Soviets to believe that the attack is real, and to either divert more troops than necessary to the sector, or at a minimum evacuate the industry. Any troops sent by the Russians to the north, will not be in the south or around Moscow.

Once things bog down, and it appears that little more can be gained in the Leningrad sector, I will pull 4 Pz Group and send it to AGC or AGS.

Army Group Center: AGC will have the tough job of making its own decent gains in ground, but minus some panzers (probably from 2 Pz Group). I am not sure if I will detach one or two panzer korps to AGS, much will depend on how things go with the encirclement of pocket west of Minsk. At a minimum, AGC must rapidly take the land bridge and Smolensk. Even with reduced strength, AGC must apply pressure in the center. But, at the same time, I want the Russians to know they have fewer panzer formations than historical, and I want him to feel confident that the south or Leningrad is the real target.
AGC must be prepared, once the cross the Dnepr, to swing south in support of AGS. The purpose of this move will be to encircle significant forces, or to continue the southern feint. Finally, once the timing is right for a drive on Moscow, AGC will either attack from a westerly direction or from a south westerly direction depending on the course of events in the game. Both of these envisioned attacks will be in support of the main effort being made by AGS.

Army Group South: Army group south will make its initial advance with the idea of pocketing as many Russian units as possible in the Lvov pocket and freeing the Rumanians. Once this task is accomplished, they will make for a direct and quick crossing of the Dnepr south of Kiev. Once a crossing has been made, AGS will move toward Kharkov or Kursk and continue to head in a generally eastern direction. If the plan starts falling apart, or even better, if the Soviets fail to adequately defend the south, the Moscow option can always be switched to a true southern strategy. However, I assume this means the best the Germans can hope for is a minor or draw.

Army Group Antonescu: AGA will support AGS with the initial objective of Odessa.

Summary: Reading this sure makes it all sound so simple. The best of plans and contact with the enemy… At any rate, better a mediocre plan than no plan at all I guess!

[Scarz]

Turn 1

Not a great first turn, as there were a couple of ill-timed holds…but over all I am pleased with the outcome. As everyone is pretty familiar with the first turn German antics, I will only mention the highlights and the not so good.

AGN made good progress and has a fairly tight ring around its pocket south if Riga.

AGC has a good hold on the pocket west of Minsk, and is a little more intermingled with Russian units on the outskirts of Minsk than I would have liked. If the Soviets decide to sacrifice a few divisions, I will be forced to make some freeing attacks with XXXIX Pz Korps rather than heading east as I would have liked.

[Scarz]

AGS was able to make the Lvov pocket, but not as firmly as I would have liked. Although I don’t believe the Soviets will make any wild moves to break into the pocket, there are some holes. It would really set things back if I had to reestablish the pocket next turn, but with XXXXVI Pz Korps coming down from the north and capturing Rovno, my guess is that the Soviets will make a hasty withdrawal rather than risk his armor and cavalry division to the south of Rovno. Another smaller pocket was made just west of Lublin, which has trapped seven odd divisions, which I hope will make the Soviets even more cautious in the south than normal. Having played IdahoNYer in many different pbem war-games over the years, I know that he is very offensive minded, and it will go against his nature not to launch some sort of attack, even if it’s just a spoiling attack meant to throw me off my time table.

[janh]

Awesome, I just will say the same as in the sister AAR: Popcorn and beer! I will be watching this one closely. Have fun with the match!

[gingerbread]

Very interesting grand strategic plan!

I'd like to see a map of your planned rail conversions. I dare say that you'll find that a southern approach on Moscow cannot be supplied by a rail line originating in the south so it will have to fall on AGC to provide logistic support.

(This is a gentle nudge to make you to actually develop a rail conversion plan - it is the one thing that it is not good to improvise. Well worth an effort.)

[janh]

ORIGINAL: Scar23
I am a little worried about whether I can give a good game, as the Germans seem much trickier to play than the Russians,...

Don't be worried, my experience so far is that the Germans have a huge superiority in 41 and it is hard to create such screw-ups that cause immediate disasters. Long-term, it will matter if you can tune your pace to get "one more" manpower center, destroy 2 more divisions or save some 2000 casualties and 5 morale points on your own Panzers, the former much more than the latter, though. Long-term, obviously one can still even win as Axis if you just conserve your forces thru blizzard and in summer 42. The Russian has a lot greater potential in 41 and 42 to create long-term screw-ups and "aid" and Axis victory. As Russian I always feel like living hand-to-mouth with little reserves for any contingency.

ORIGINAL: Scar23
The Plan
...
Concept: I have decided on a Moscow centric game plan, with a twist. I will come at Moscow from the south, and will initially focus all extra resources and reinforcements on AGS. My idea is to try and make more rapid gains in the south than normal, while giving IdahoNYer the idea I am trying for a deep southern penetration strategy. Then, when the time is right, I will swing from the south towards Moscow, hopefully from the flank and behind a bit and come at Moscow from two directions.

Interesting twist, I must admit. If you can secure a lot of terrain south, you may open chances to truly cut off all of it in 42. That is, if blizzard doesn't roll you back a long way (hardly any defensible terrain there), and if you accept the risk of a Stalingrad... I usually push hard in North and Center since in 41 the Russian counters are much weaker than they will ever be while the terrain up there is pretty good defensive terrain. It is much harder to get through the swamps and woods to Leningrad or to Moscow by 42, while the South remains perfect offensive terrain in 42.

ORIGINAL: Scar23
Army Group North: AGN will make a dash for Leningrad using the initial forces assigned to the army group. In addition, I plan on giving AGN an additional reserve army with at least three korps to hold its right flank. I will try and make AGNs attack toward Leningrad as convincing as possible, and if by some chance the Soviets fail to protect the city adequately, or I am surprisingly lucky, I may take the city. At a minimum, I want the Soviets to believe that the attack is real, and to either divert more troops than necessary to the sector, or at a minimum evacuate the industry. Any troops sent by the Russians to the north, will not be in the south or around Moscow.

Once things bog down, and it appears that little more can be gained in the Leningrad sector, I will pull 4 Pz Group and send it to AGC or AGS.

Sounds like you don't weaken AGN, which means you ought to be able to take Leningrad given the dice gods are happy. You should seriously attempt taking it as it will free the Finns, which are very powerful infantry to start with. They are a force multiplier for AGN throughout 43 at least. Moreover, Leningrad is a large manpower center, and as war was in first place about destroying the enemy army, destroying manpower is like pocketing divisions.

ORIGINAL: Scar23
Army Group Center: ...

Army Group South: ...

Sounds like a well conceived plan. Sending 1 Pz Korps from Heeresgruppe Mitte to Heeresgruppe Süd is the force efficient minimum for the Lvov pocket. I usually mix forces a bit, taking 1 Panzer Division, 1 Motorized, and IR(mot.) GD to perform this task. In PBEM, maybe a little more forces are necessary, though many AARs succeed with the same mix. With the remaining fast Divs in AGC, the landbridge is doable. I think the situation by turn 8 will show whether swinging AGC's armor south or southwesterly instead of rushing it to Moscow will make sense. Usually I aim for the opposite, i.e. I try to reunite the PzKorps detached from Pz.Gruppe 2 by a rush north after a breakthrough in the rear of Kiev has been achieved. They can be meet by some Panzers of AGC half way, and bag Kaluga and Tula and possibly Kursk that way.

As far as overall thoughts, I believe an Axis player should aim for manpower centers and destroying units rather than terrain or factories. The Russian potential was so huge that it would have been almost impossible for the Germans to cripple the Red Army by depriving it of war materials, not to mention that the US could and certainly would even have upped lend-and-lease in such a case. Also, the thought should start to include the blizzard measures by turn 8, i.e. when you can see what Russian losses were caused and whether the Russian blizzard offensive may be powerful. Generally I agree with Hoths and Guderians thinking back then, slowly retreat and only hold key positions, and perhaps only those until all formations can pull out safely. In the south, this is smarter than in the north because of the terrain, naturally.

Do you have any special house rules regarding the 1st winter? Are you allowed to rail out a few of your best Panzer, Mot and infantry divisions for winter-quarters until March or so? It is borderline to do so with large numbers, but ultimately it is just using hindsight as much as the opponent can use hindsight on defending Leningrad hard while not sacrificing Armies in the "indefensible" South, or so many other areas, so maybe this is one "area" where both players ought to find a house rule?

Ah, one more thought: Don't be too cautious with advancing your infantry divisions. In my first two games as Axis, I held them back way too long to secure and eliminate pockets. I wouldn't do this anymore. All you need is to secure rail lines so that the repair units can go fast, and/or if a huge pockets "funnels" your supplies to the easternmost Panzer spearheads through tight flanks, open wider and more direct corridors so that supply flow is good. Otherwise, you really don't need to leave much infantry behind.

Anyway, I am very excited to watch your plans unfold... Good Luck!
Jan

[Ketza]

I fear your southern pockets will both be broken.

[Scarz]

Great thoughts and suggestions, thanks for the solid imput.

Gingerbread, you caught me out, I was just going to wing the rail supply lines. I will take a look at the rail lines and see if I can come up with a reasonable track.

Thanks for the comments Janh, we do not have any house rules in place, but I am not too worried as I don't think either of us will try any exploits, but I will mention it to my opponent and see if he thinks we ought to have any agreements on some things. I hope the south will afford the best chance to take the resourse centers, factories and provide the best chances for large pockets, but I just do not have enough experiance with the Germans to know how a southern emphasis will turn out. I am fairly convinced that the Soviets will be overly prepared in the north, and will think he can give enough ground in the south to not be too worried, at least initially.

I was a bit worried about that too Ketza, and while I don't like the thought of having to spend an extra turn reestablishing the Lvov pocket, I am prepared to do it, especially if it means I might bag a few more mobile divisions in the process.

Thanks again guys!

Scar

[Scarz]

After looking at the rails nets in the south, these seem the best direct choices of general directions, but of course a lot will depend on where I get the most movement. And looking at it this way, sure makes it look like a long road to Moscow!

Thanks again for the suggestion Gingerbread.

[gingerbread]

The Minsk-Smolensk-Bryansk route looks promising.


I'll shut up about the rails now. [;)]

[Farfarer61]

No one agrees with me, but I assess the Crimea is a bleeding ulcer if you don't take it.

[Scarz]

Hey Farfaer, I have not been faced wiith the Crimea issue as the Germans before, I am not sure issues with not taking it really are. If things go well, I am sure AGA can handle it as AGS moves past, but I would hate to be forced to send significant forces there. What have you seen in your games?

[Farfarer61]

You can get a Sov who uses it as a horrible nuisance, or one who is thankful to have a static front and does nothing. As Sov, I pump it full of every nuisance aircraft, partisan-suppliers, para trop droppers ( short range now). If your opponent doesnt drop a fort into the Crimea entrances turn one, then commit the units to dig, you should be able to force it. If he commits entirely, you probably have to commit too much to take it. However, other prozes ar then available. If you don't take crimea, be prepared for a Blizzard fall back line at Nikolaev and the frozen river. So watch and shoot. My 2 cents. I lose a lot, but I'm consistent

[Ketza]

Not taking the Crimea out can prove to be a huge hassle later in the Blizzard as well as 1942 when it can require a even bigger commitment to clear it.

I would say a strong corp backing some Rumanians is worth the effort.

[Scarz]

I went ahead and tried to draw of the main axis of advance for the Germans, or at least how I hope they turn out, through the first three stages of the advance. It might be entertaining to see if this is at all realistic in expectation, or if I start freelancing and go off the reservaton, or if the Russians never get moved off the first river lines!

[Scarz]

Turn 2

AGN: The northern pocket in the AGS sector was broken. This was not too much of an issue, as the infantry divisions of 18 Army and 16 Army continued to head north east, and were not affected or delayed too badly. The pocket looks solid now, and should be reduced next turn. 4 Pz Group is firmly across the Daugava River, and has cut off Riga from the north. I would have preferred to get a little further with the panzers, but with the Russians reopening the pocket, I was a little more cautious than I wanted to be with the tanks. Fatigue is also starting to set in, so I didn’t want to push them too hard this turn.

AGC: The Minsk pocket was significantly reduced, while Minsk fell to the panzers of XXXIX Pz korps. I also noticed that the mobile divisions from AGC ended up heading in a north western direction in order to make a few more pockets and to clear some territory. This might not be a bad thing, as it will put the Russians on alert for a Leningrad move more completely. Finally, all of the AGC air bases were moved up near Minsk.

AGS: The Lvov pocket was broken as I feared. One of the panzer regiments retreated after a heroic five stands, but the retreat on the sixth assault gave the Russians a corridor and so the supplies poured into the pocket. However, the Russians used the troops south of Rovno (the ones I said he would risk) to breach the pocket. This added an additional seven divisions to the Germans, as they are now in the Lvov pocket. I was very surprised that he would risk the units, as several were mobile and cavalry. At any rate, panzers of XXXXVI korps made a quick encirclement of the attackers, and the Lvov pocket seems much more secure now, but we shall see.

AGA: The Russians ran for the most part in the south, so the Rumanians are in pursuit and advancing as steadily as they can.

[Scarz]

AGC