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RE: Blizzard Jan 1941

 
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RE: Blizzard Jan 1941 - 9/20/2012 5:31:18 AM   
IdahoNYer


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Pelton/Klydon -

Jan 1, 1942 turn. Although my experience is pretty limited (2xPBEM and few against the AI), if the Soviets are anywhere near 5 million men by Blizzard, the Germans are going to be in trouble with the post 1.05 fort rules. What I think hurt Scar more than anything was assuming forts every other hex would be able to form a solid line - doesn't work - Soviets just infiltrate between the hexes and then can either isolate the fort, or the German is inclined to pull back, abandoning the forts. Scar chose to pull back in pretty much all the cases, and has paid for it.

Without forts, the German is really going to get a drubbing in the Blizzard. I think if he keeps his manpower over 3 million by the end of blizzard, he'll still have a good chance to launch a fairly good 42 summer offensive. I'm guessing here...


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RE: Blizzard Jan 1941 - 9/20/2012 5:44:44 AM   
IdahoNYer


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The remainder of the front has the Soviet attack making limited gains as German resistance stiffens near Kharkov.

Southwestern Front's three armies make very limited gains as they are high fatigued and have taken some losses.

Caucasus Front was attempting to bypass Kharkov to the east, but the success of the Fronts on the northern side of the bulge has forced a change - turn west and attack! Unfortunately, that means Kharkov. 2nd Shock Army makes some progress to the north, but 29th and 61st Armies can not break through, instead grind forward.

57th and 16th Armies make limited progress forward, keeping the pressure on.




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RE: Blizzard Jan 1941 - 9/20/2012 5:49:45 AM   
IdahoNYer


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Lastly, the Crimean sideshow.

Operations may have culminated as the Coastal and 56th Armies have forces the Germans and their worthless Rumanian allies out of the Crimea.

Not sure I can, or if its worthwhile to try to push northward. We'll assess that next turn - If I can keep pushing, I'll do so.




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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 9/20/2012 5:52:10 AM >

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RE: Blizzard 1941 - 9/20/2012 6:21:31 AM   
Speedy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: IdahoNYer

quote:

Idaho - How many Guards Units have you got so far?


Speedy - I have a grand total of ONE Guards Rifle Division, although I have a number of support units that have flipped to Guard status.


Interesting. You do indeed have many to pop! Thanks


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Post #: 214
RE: Blizzard Jan 1941 - 9/20/2012 6:26:57 AM   
Speedy

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

What turn is it?

Nice job on blizzard operations.

The blizzard is still way way to powerful.

The games now are desided during blizzard as 1941 summer for germans has been nerfed to about what was historical. As SHC realize they dont have to defend the southern front at all Leningrad will not be a given.

With Russian loses being far lower then historical, because there is no need to fight forward on 66% of the map large nad med size pockets are a thing of the past.

This in turn means that SHC blizzards(plus the cav exploit) can all but seal the game by Feb 1942.

Again the skill level of the german player has to be very high or the first winter is a disaster as SHC armys are 5 million plus.

At this point the German player is better served to farm morale for most of the summer then pull back to Poland before winter and then try to win in 42. You will atleast have 80 to 90 morale infantry divisions and 4.5 million men to defend Germany for a draw.

Great job on your blizzard offensive the GHC over all infantry morale will be completely trashed by March and he will have zero offensive punch.

Game should be over by late 44 unless you shot yourself in the foot


I agree that blizzard 41 is slightly over powered but disagree that summer 41 has been nerfed for the Axis. All things being equal in the majority of games LG or Moscow will fall. Let alone the fact the SU has too poor an offensive capability meaning fighting forward is virtual suicide.....bednarre makes some food points above too.....


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RE: Blizzard Jan 1941 - 9/20/2012 1:29:06 PM   
Klydon


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I see at least one German mountain division now stuck down south. Be interesting on how Scar redeploys in the face of this offensive across the front. It looks like you had a fairly large pile of attacks this turn, which is good. Beat up the Germans as much as possible to cause losses both to his moral and OOB.

I would get that mountain division out of the Crimea and redeploy it someplace else. Russian mountain divisions are underrated in their ability to move in the blizzard and also pack a pretty good punch. I usually try to conserve them these days for the blizzard and then use them a lot during the blizzard.


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Post #: 216
RE: Blizzard Jan 1942 - 9/25/2012 12:25:40 AM   
IdahoNYer


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Turn 30; Jan 8, 1942.........Blizzard

Industry moved: Kalinin 4xHI

Winter offensive continues to make good to outstanding progress north of Belgorod, while German defenses remain strong in the Kharkov region. Fatigue and lengthing supply lines are slowing offensive operations in places more than German defenses.

Overall, I'm trying to put my "STAVKA" hat on, and "seeing" the battle results as they happen, vs. historical hindsight - which means I'm going for what Stalin tried to do historically - the "knockout blow" against Army Group Center. I'm going to push as hard as I can to try and destroy Army Group Center......which I doubt I can manage - but its going to be fun trying!

Here in NW Front's area, one key attack is held up which pauses the offensive punch of "Operation Klydon" to take Pskov. However, the Germans still seem thin here, so there is opportunity - and frankly, I'm having trouble getting all the forces engaged near Kursk, so I pulled 55th Army out of STAVKA reserve, and sent it to augment NW Front's attack. Its a fresh, well led (Vatutin) army which should re-energize the attack!






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RE: Blizzard Jan 1942 - 9/25/2012 12:37:53 AM   
IdahoNYer


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Kalinin Front continues to advance to take Vitebsk and Smolensk. German resistance here seems to be breaking - being stretched considerably - and Soviet Tank elements push advances - but the 51st Tank Div and a Tank Bde are routed by panzer led counter attacks - so there is more here than meets the eye.

Still, holding Smolensk will be challenging, as Soviet forces are enveloping it on three sides, and the 24th and 20th Armies remain in fairly good shape - despite the German counterattacks.

To the north of Kalinin Front, 40th Army - sent to establish a defensive linkage between the NW and Kalinin Front - manages some foward progress as well.

To the south, 49th Army is indeed on the defensive, holding an increasing frontage between Kalinin and Western Fronts as the Fronts have success.




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< Message edited by IdahoNYer -- 9/25/2012 12:39:15 AM >

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RE: Blizzard Jan 1941 - 9/25/2012 12:40:13 AM   
Pelton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: IdahoNYer

Pelton/Klydon -

Jan 1, 1942 turn. Although my experience is pretty limited (2xPBEM and few against the AI), if the Soviets are anywhere near 5 million men by Blizzard, the Germans are going to be in trouble with the post 1.05 fort rules. What I think hurt Scar more than anything was assuming forts every other hex would be able to form a solid line - doesn't work - Soviets just infiltrate between the hexes and then can either isolate the fort, or the German is inclined to pull back, abandoning the forts. Scar chose to pull back in pretty much all the cases, and has paid for it.

Without forts, the German is really going to get a drubbing in the Blizzard. I think if he keeps his manpower over 3 million by the end of blizzard, he'll still have a good chance to launch a fairly good 42 summer offensive. I'm guessing here...




I have several games vs 5 million man SHC armys 1.06.13 and have had little trouble and am playing a game as SHC and the GHC is having a little trouble but not that bad. You must have a short front and retreat 2 hexes a turn.

Right now the SHC blizzard is just a complete historical joke. The only troops that got pocketed in mass were russians not germans.

I think the artition rate and morale losses are just right, but the pocketed GHC units is another example of the Lord of The Rings mindset of 2by3.

Lets stick to something allong the lines of what is or was historically possible based on (the physics of this world) an not Middle Earth.

The GHC is basicly toast at this point because their infantry morale come April is crushed.



< Message edited by Pelton -- 9/25/2012 12:41:03 AM >


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RE: Blizzard Jan 1941 - 9/25/2012 12:42:49 AM   
Pelton

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Speedy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Pelton

What turn is it?

Nice job on blizzard operations.

The blizzard is still way way to powerful.

The games now are desided during blizzard as 1941 summer for germans has been nerfed to about what was historical. As SHC realize they dont have to defend the southern front at all Leningrad will not be a given.

With Russian loses being far lower then historical, because there is no need to fight forward on 66% of the map large nad med size pockets are a thing of the past.

This in turn means that SHC blizzards(plus the cav exploit) can all but seal the game by Feb 1942.

Again the skill level of the german player has to be very high or the first winter is a disaster as SHC armys are 5 million plus.

At this point the German player is better served to farm morale for most of the summer then pull back to Poland before winter and then try to win in 42. You will atleast have 80 to 90 morale infantry divisions and 4.5 million men to defend Germany for a draw.

Great job on your blizzard offensive the GHC over all infantry morale will be completely trashed by March and he will have zero offensive punch.

Game should be over by late 44 unless you shot yourself in the foot


I agree that blizzard 41 is slightly over powered but disagree that summer 41 has been nerfed for the Axis. All things being equal in the majority of games LG or Moscow will fall. Let alone the fact the SU has too poor an offensive capability meaning fighting forward is virtual suicide.....bednarre makes some food points above too.....



Is there a single case of Moscow being lost in a 1.06.13+ game todate?

The SHC would have to be a complete newbie to loss Moscow now.

Even I can hold it and I can't even figure out how to merge units. Lol holding Moscow now is a given.

The only questions now is will Leningrad hold and how bad will the GHC get a morale beat down during blizzard.

If GHC gets a morale beat down then Berlin drops in 44 if not its a draw with slim chances of minor wins for both sides.

< Message edited by Pelton -- 9/25/2012 12:46:46 AM >


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RE: Blizzard Jan 1942 - 9/25/2012 1:00:39 AM   
IdahoNYer


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Here is where the Soviet mass might just overwhelm Army Group Center.

Western Front's three armies: 3rd, 4th and 10th - all push armor and cavalry into weakening German resistance - the Front is attempting to turn from a southern advance, to a more westerly advance, centered on taking Gomel, and clearing the Germans from the east bank of the Dneipr.

This shift, was intended to allow Bryansk Front to re-enter the attack after refitting - but the Germans are pulling back too fast and its going to be hard for Bryansk Front to re-enter the fight before the end of the month. In the meantime, 54th Army continues to pressure the Germans, and will drive toward Chernigov - lead tanks have reached the Desna!

52nd Army, faced with a tough German defense, will most likely only conduct limited offensive operations as it links Bryansk and Volkov Fronts.

Volkov Front, finding panzers to its front, shifts its axis for a week, and launches 48th Army just east of Kursk in an attempt to link up with STAVKA armies advancing from the east - the Prize: a potential haul of 12+ divisions squeezed in NE of Kursk.

The STAVKA armies - 32nd, 50th, 30th, 37th, and 51st - envisioned to hold the line, are now in full attack to batter and cut off the retreating Germans near Kursk. I'm going to pull one out to replace the 55th Army as STAVKA reserve - the front is tightening anyway, too many armies in the line anyway.

Southwestern Front's 18th and 26th Armies drive toward Oboyan and potential link up with Volkov Front.

Great potential all along the Front here - while I'll probably not "bag" an army, the Germans will take a battering in pulling out. As long as he can't withdrawn faster than I can attack - his casualties will be severe. And that is the whole point of the winter offensive!




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RE: Blizzard Jan 1942 - 9/25/2012 1:13:02 AM   
IdahoNYer


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South of the Southwestern Front's attacks, Caucasus Front finds the going tough in and around Kharkov. Apparently, the Germans don't want to abandon Kharkov - its defenses has remained very strong, despite the apparent collapse of Army Group Center near Gomel.

The Front has resorted to grinding attacks - a slow process to gain ground, and envelop Kharkov.

The heavy German resistance extends south toward the Dniepr, where the Germans seem stretched, but so is the Southern Front - and can only launch some spoiling attacks to exert pressure on German allies in the line.

That should change in the coming weeks, as the Trans-Caucaus Front's 44th Army is being brough up from the Turkish border and will attack through the southern area of the 38th Army to link up with the two armies attacking from the Crimea. The objective will be the destruction of German units south of the Dniepr Bend.




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End Game - 10/2/2012 4:05:11 AM   
IdahoNYer


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Turn 31; Jan 15, 1942.......Blizzard.

Scar and I decided to wrap this up - Blizzard offensive was just gaining too much momentum for the Germans to establish a cohesive front.

Majority of German heavy hitters were in the triangle - Kharkov - Kursk - just north of Sumy. In most other areas (except where the Finns were, and the Germans in AGN area were in better shape than elsewhere), the Germans were either very thin, or attempting to delay.

This was just going to get worse in the last month plus of blizzard so we suspended. Just too many Russians - 6.8 million and climbing to 3.2 Germans and decreasing. Most Soviet units while a bit tired, were still in pretty to very good shape and were not going to let up on offensive operations. Also, both the 44th Army - with all the fresh mountain units that were guarding the Turkish border, and the rested Bryansk Front were about to launch attacks - and not a whole lot stood in there way.

So, without much chance of a good German summer offensive, we decided to go to plan B - start a new game and I'll give the Germans another whirl.

Was alot of fun playing the Soviets - learned alot - Their ability to re-generate combat power is simply amazing come late August/Sep. Every German player should try the Soviets at least once to see how they multiply despite losses! I think if the Soviets aren't under the 5 million mark by blizzard, the Germans are going to have a very rough time of it. And keeping the Soviets under that mark is a challenge!

Anyway, fun game!






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RE: End Game - 10/2/2012 4:35:58 AM   
Klydon


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Entertaining AAR!

Congrats Idaho and well played. I look forward to seeing you and Scar hook it up for another game.

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RE: End Game - 10/5/2012 12:27:18 AM   
juret

 

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we are just in januari 42 ;(

i love reading idahos aar once a weak and drink morning cofee.

lets hope the 3rd AAR at least go to 43 close to historical results



< Message edited by juret -- 10/5/2012 12:29:08 AM >

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RE: End Game - 10/5/2012 8:36:30 AM   
amaniacwithacar

 

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Great AAR, too bad it ended so quickly

If he had done a bit more damage in the summer and withdrawn from that massive bulge, he probably would have survived

oh well, that was a well deserved victory and I cannot wait for your next one!

Let the massacre begin!

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RE: End Game - 10/5/2012 10:05:58 AM   
janh

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: amaniacwithacar
Great AAR, too bad it ended so quickly

If he had done a bit more damage in the summer and withdrawn from that massive bulge, he probably would have survived


The damage done actually had picked up well, Scar quickly caught on. I think he should have disengaged earlier, and withdrawn steadily 2-3 hexes per turn. And let those 2 infantry divisions in the second blizzard turn die. Holding these forts so far forward, and this bulge would have been a serious challenge for anyone. Without counterattack capabilities, he couldn't drive out the Soviets sneaking thru. That may be fine, and could have meant some kind of Demyansk right there, just that pocketed units in this game wouldn't survive that long to be able to relieve them by spring.

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