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SU factories evacuation - 7/3/2012 8:05:05 PM   
Rodimstev

 

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hi all,

i would just know if anybody has posted a calendar about the SU facstorie's evacuation.

or if it doesn't exit, just a short list with the most important factories to evacuate.

thanks in advance

kinds regards

rodimstev
Post #: 1
RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/3/2012 9:32:46 PM   
heliodorus04


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You'll want to hear from Flavius and Tullius Detritus on this - they have the macro production game down to a science. As I recall hearing from others, Flavius's plan sacrifices 35 armaments points to ensure adequate heavy industry evacuation (important to supply in 43 and later).

(in reply to Rodimstev)
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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/4/2012 4:38:37 PM   
AFV


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Maybe at one time his plan involved evacuating HI, but for sure it no longer does.
HI is simply not important. The only way you can have a shortage is if you have very low casualties, and your army grows really large, which if that happens you have won the game anyways.

(in reply to heliodorus04)
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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/5/2012 4:17:22 PM   
carlkay58

 

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HI is important - try making it in 43 and later without a good amount of HI - you will run out of supplies if you are not careful.

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/6/2012 4:13:44 AM   
AFV


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We will have to agree to disagree on that.
I contend the only way you will run short is if your army is extremely large- in which case you likely have won the game anyways- or if you really gave up a lot of territory and did not evacuate any HI at all.

This is not only from my experience but many other posters here (including Flavius) who has stated that HI is unimportant.

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/6/2012 6:30:20 AM   
M60A3TTS

 

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Heavy industry matters. Not only that, but if you compare Soviet production figures starting 41 GC #s with the 43 Campaign #s, you can easily see why as Soviet player you'll never match the latter figures by playing the 41 GC by PBEM against a competent Axis player. And that has ramifications.

The thing so many people have focused on for so long when it comes to factory evacuations is this one line from section 21.2.1.1 in the WiTE manual.

To maintain historical production figures the Soviet player needs to move at least half of the capacity of the factories being relocated.

Now I don't know who wrote that, but I wish they would explain the following:

Starting production figures '41-'45 GC game
236 Heavy Industry
370 Arms
140 Vehicles

Starting production figures '43-'45 GC (Kursk) and net loss from '41 scenario
212 Heavy Industry (-24)
335 Arms (-35)
135 Vehicles (-5)

If that represents what the Soviets lost from June 41 to July 43, that isn't 50% of anything historically assuming the two scenario #s are portraying accurate production figures.

More details on evacuations. I am going to start with arms. There are 224 arms points generally at risk from a line Leningrad-Moscow-Rostov. Below is a list I compiled that shows where 200 are. The other 24 not shown are 4 at Minsk and 20 at Moscow because at the time I wrote this, I thought Moscow was relatively safe. I now mention that in here because with the fort nerf, Moscow is in as much danger of capture as anywhere in 1941.



224 factories are at risk. Lose the 35 which is the difference between the scenarios. That leaves 189 to be evacuated if you are going to have the same # of factories as the start of the Kursk scenario. Multiply that number by 6,000 railcap evacuation cost and you get 1,134,000.

On to vehicles. These cities have the following production and are at risk. North Moscow, West Moscow, and Moscow 20. Kharkov 20. Leningrad 6, Stalino 5. The scenario differences was 5 and that leaves 46 to go. Multiply by 6,000 railcap again and that's 276,000.

Now heavy industry. Here is a good portion of the factories at risk in 1941

Moscow 9
Leningrad 8
Dnepropetrovsk 5
Stalino 5
Minsk 4
Bryansk 4
Kiev 4
Kharkov 4
Rostov 4
Zaporoyzhe 4
Rostov 4
Voroshilovgrad 4
Krivoi Rog 3
Nikolaev 3
Odessa 3
Kirovograd 3
Gorlovka 3
Makeevka 3
Kaluga 2

That's 79. Subtract the 24 as the difference in the scenarios and you get 55. Multiply by 10,000 and get 550,000.

Totals then are:
arms 1,134,000
vehicles 276,000
heavy industry 550,000
GRAND TOTAL: 1,960,000 railcap required to evacuate factories to have the same #s at the start of the '43 scenario.

And that's not including a single tank, armored car, or airplane factory going east.

Ok. What is the available Soviet railcap for turns 2-16 which represents the time when the Axis summer campaign lasts? (If you want to argue maybe Moscow holds long enough until mud arrives, be my guest.) Results will vary but in my game against Pelton that I featured in an AAR, it was about 1.65 million. It peaked turn 4 at 144,500 and averaged 112,500.

The numbers say then that you don't have enough railcap to move all of what the '43 scenario would assume you would historically have started with. You're 300k short of railcap without moving a single soldier to the front.

My point: If the 1943 scenario truely represents what Soviet industry was delivering to arm and equip that same historical Red Army, in the 41 GC you'll never meet those same production figures while you try to build and support a similar army which I presume gets you to Berlin in May 1945 if the Axis has similar historical troop #s. It means if you build the 150 rifle corps army Flavius talks about, it will have less supplies and ammunition then what it had historically. 150 rifle corps = 450 divisions. The '43 scenario actually has 447 Soviet rifle division equivalents by the way. That in turn with less heavy industry means higher fatigue and lower MPs in the Red Army units. It means the Axis can follow up a successful summer 42 campaign with a winter one for a while at least against fatigued Soviet rifle divisions. It means fewer Soviet deliberate attacks against the Axis over the long term. If you build a smaller Red Army with better supply... well the Soviet player won't get to Berlin any sooner.



< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 7/6/2012 6:32:07 AM >

(in reply to AFV)
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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/6/2012 8:12:05 AM   
Flaviusx


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I have never run into supply shortages. But I also never have fielded an 8.5 million man red army in 1942. 6.5-7 million is more typical for me. I also disband like crazy in 1941 and run a very austere Red Army, no frills. A ton of airbases, HQs, SUs, etc. all get disbanded.

I've stopped building any SUs at all save sappers, AFV, and a small number of rail engineers.

Towards the end of 1941, I do begin evacuating HI out of cities like Rostov and Moscow and anything else west of the Don more or less. Strip the frontline bare of anything. I will even evacuate Stalingrad in full over the winter. Essentially you should never lose any factory of any type after 1941. You will have plenty of rail to play with over the winter to send the entire industrial base to the edge of the mapboard.

Finally, I rail all the U2V factories forward to let the Axis capture them. They are not worth the supply they consume.

With these drastic economies, supply should never be an issue. My sense is people aren't taking these sorts of radical measures. Armaments are the real chokepoint, as well as manpower (and APs.) But supply? No. That can be managed.

Another way to run into supply problems in 1942, btw, is going crazy with fort construction. Don't do this. (I think it is largely a waste of APs anyways.) If you spam FRs all over the place, this becomes a massive drain on supplies later on.

There is definitely not anything like the amount of rail necessary to duplicate the industrial base shown in the stock 43 and 44 scenarios. These were made before rail costs on evacuations got doubled. That doubling is what made HI more or less impossible to get out during the summer 41 campaign season. At 10,000 points per HI, it is simply not cost effective to move them early on.



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Post #: 7
RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/6/2012 8:34:30 AM   
schascha


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A noob ( stupid) question

How to choose the destination of the evacuation ?

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/6/2012 9:33:00 AM   
Rodimstev

 

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hi all,

thanks for all this details. (i think better understand this concept of evacuation.)

May be i can give you more details to precise your advice. it is in a MP game and i play soviet.
i think that the strategy is quite different between AI or human player.

and it is the GC 41-45 campaign.
kinds regards



_____________________________

"l'audace encore de l'audace toujours de l'audace" Danton devant l'assemblée nationale 20 septembre 1792.

(in reply to schascha)
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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/6/2012 12:34:30 PM   
M60A3TTS

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

I have never run into supply shortages. But I also never have fielded an 8.5 million man red army in 1942. 6.5-7 million is more typical for me. I also disband like crazy in 1941 and run a very austere Red Army, no frills. A ton of airbases, HQs, SUs, etc. all get disbanded.

I've stopped building any SUs at all save sappers, AFV, and a small number of rail engineers.

Towards the end of 1941, I do begin evacuating HI out of cities like Rostov and Moscow and anything else west of the Don more or less. Strip the frontline bare of anything. I will even evacuate Stalingrad in full over the winter. Essentially you should never lose any factory of any type after 1941. You will have plenty of rail to play with over the winter to send the entire industrial base to the edge of the mapboard.

Finally, I rail all the U2V factories forward to let the Axis capture them. They are not worth the supply they consume.

With these drastic economies, supply should never be an issue. My sense is people aren't taking these sorts of radical measures. Armaments are the real chokepoint, as well as manpower (and APs.) But supply? No. That can be managed.

Another way to run into supply problems in 1942, btw, is going crazy with fort construction. Don't do this. (I think it is largely a waste of APs anyways.) If you spam FRs all over the place, this becomes a massive drain on supplies later on.

There is definitely not anything like the amount of rail necessary to duplicate the industrial base shown in the stock 43 and 44 scenarios. These were made before rail costs on evacuations got doubled. That doubling is what made HI more or less impossible to get out during the summer 41 campaign season. At 10,000 points per HI, it is simply not cost effective to move them early on.




A couple things I'll point out. First, while I agree about not building a lot of rail engineers, they are a manpower sink, not a supply one because of the relatively small ammo requirements. Guys with shovels don't need many bullets. That combined with the fact they can't assault forts makes them a less than desirable buy compared with sappers.

On the U2VS, their relatively small bomb payload means they use less supplies than a level bomber for instance. So on the LBs which can consume a lot of ammo and by default supplies, there I go by payload to judge how much supply they will eat and in turn how many units to deploy. For example, the DB3B or IL4 with 5500 load capacity get 3 max regiments per base. Pe-2s with half the load get 6 regiments max. Getting OT here, but I find tac bombers in general do as much damage as level bombers which again eat more ammo/supply and so in managing supply I prefer tac bombers over LBs when loading airbases.

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/6/2012 6:20:47 PM   
carlkay58

 

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I find that the U2VS is a great one for interdiction attacks. They perform well in that regard and being night bombers are rarely intercepted by Axis fighters.

I have come to the conclusion that the "evacuated half the industry" quote from the rule book refers to the air/armor specific factories - where you get only a single chance to evacuate the factory and then all other capacity for the factory disappears. So historically, the Soviets only evacuated half the production value for the factories.


< Message edited by carlkay58 -- 7/6/2012 6:22:51 PM >

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/7/2012 2:17:37 AM   
Flaviusx


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The supply footprint of these silly biplanes is much bigger than that, guys. It takes supply to produce the damned things, and there are a lot of them. They use up a lot of airbase space, and those need supply as well. The game spits out too many airbases as is from 42 on, and I prefer to limit these to the best and most modern models.

If you want to put some airframes on night missions...just go with something else. Fighter bombers, even.

My own view is that Soviet production ought to be steamlined, and that this stuff is pure fat and can be cut and never missed.

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/7/2012 8:06:28 PM   
carlkay58

 

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Each to their own. It will be interesting to see what happens if the German unit production ever becomes available with the options that the Soviets have in WitE. It will probably have to wait until the War in Europe, but tweaking the production would be a game in and of itself.

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/7/2012 10:28:26 PM   
M60A3TTS

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Flaviusx

The supply footprint of these silly biplanes is much bigger than that, guys. It takes supply to produce the damned things, and there are a lot of them. They use up a lot of airbase space, and those need supply as well. The game spits out too many airbases as is from 42 on, and I prefer to limit these to the best and most modern models.

If you want to put some airframes on night missions...just go with something else. Fighter bombers, even.

My own view is that Soviet production ought to be steamlined, and that this stuff is pure fat and can be cut and never missed.


You're kind of mixing issues here.

It takes supply to build and maintain stuff period. And they take up the same space on an airbase as anything else; no more no less.

If one U2VS is one too many for you, whatever floats your boat. I'm focusing on the aircraft itself which seems to do no worse than others in a bombing or ground support role. For sure, eventually you don't need them once the IL-2 production remains intact and gets up to full capacity.
On a side note, the Pe-2 seems to have better all around stats than the IL-2 and yet its classification as a level bomber seems to being down its effectiveness.

As to production, I think a lot of people would like an on/off switch for each type of equipment so if you want to shut down the U2VS factories you can do it and pocket the supplies. Right now the only fix to get rid of unwanted factories is rail them towards the enemy.

It sounds also that you run a very lean air force throughout with limited #s of bases. We see mid-late games with total soviet aircraft in the 10-20k range. What are you used to running with?

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/7/2012 10:44:05 PM   
Flaviusx


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Less than that. The efficiency of the Red Air Force has an inverse relationship to its size, and beyond a certain point becomes a huge drag in terms of support and supply. I don't like putting in more than 5 airbases on any front, and a half dozen or so airbases to handle long range aviation. (Up north I'll slim this down to as little as 3 airbases per front.) Once I hit those numbers, I limit the numbers of units assigned to airbases so the AI doesn't keep making more. Whatever excess groups get produced beyond those airbase figures just gets put into the national reserve and I rotate stuff in an out of there. The NR is always going to be pretty well packed if you do this, you'll never come anywhere near emptying it and putting it all on the map, and that's just fine by me.

I really don't want more than about 600,000 men tied up in airbases. So 60 airbases is my target figure. Those suckers also divert a lot of trucks. If I wind up with more than that, I'll disband.

In 1941 I get rid all the SAD airbases, btw. That leaves me with around 3 bases per front, and given how useless the Red Air Force is in 1941, that's good enough for me. Ground support doesn't work until 1942 (unless you consider 6 planes showing up "working" which I do not), so I basically just throw a bunch of fighters out there, since interception is good to go from turn 1 and these are cheap to supply, even with 9 per base.

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/7/2012 10:55:24 PM   
gingerbread


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Flaviusx makes a good and relevant point, the full production of U-2VS will consume 84 x 81 = 6 804 supply per turn, enough to supply 1.4-1.5 million men (before ammo). Or from another side, it's ~10 HI that you don't have to evacuate during the rail cap squeeze.

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/7/2012 11:44:01 PM   
M60A3TTS

 

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Your numbers looked suspect so I checked up on this. You didn't divide by 20, so 340 tons of supplies are required:

21.1.7. AIRCRAFT, AFV AND COMBAT VEHICLE PRODUCTION

The cost to build an aircraft is its build cost divided by 20. The cost to build an AFV or combat vehicle is its
build cost divided by 10. For example a FW 190A has a build cost of 484, so it would require
24.2 tons of supplies to produce one such aircraft, to include four 20mm cannon, one 250 KG
Bomb and two 300 litre drop tanks as installed devices as well as integral aircrew. A Tiger AFV
ground element has a build cost of 673, so it would require 67.3 tons of supplies to produce
one such AFV, to include one 88mm gun and two 7.92 machine guns as installed devices.

That supplies about 4.25 rifle divisions that each need 80 supply points. That's closer 40,000 men not 1.4 mil.

But to expand on the thought, looking at the IL2M3:
Build cost = 647
Capacity= 162
(cost*capacity)/20 = 5240
65 rifle division equivalents.

So there may be some savings there if you have a large stockpile of aircraft from earlier runs of the IL-2 and IL-2M where you might rail some capacity to a second Urals location to damage the factories and reduce production. Worth thinking about...

< Message edited by M60A3TTS -- 7/7/2012 11:53:28 PM >

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/8/2012 12:42:33 AM   
gingerbread


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You're right. I forgot /20 though I use 5k supply per mil.

I do prefer to leave the Kharkov vehicles and move some ARM or HI.

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RE: SU factories evacuation - 7/12/2012 7:28:08 AM   
Rodimstev

 

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hi all,

so if i undestand

it is better to evacuate in order to priority :
Armements
vehicules
HI
anothers

kinds regards
rodimstev

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