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RE: Augustine summer wine

 
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RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/12/2013 2:39:06 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6147
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
Oct 22, 43

Enemy's CVEs seem to be moving south, towards the Gulf of Carpenteria...mmmm... still no sign of any massive landing in the DEI... just a lot of noise....

The KB is refueling at Sosarbaja. Ready to move for Menado, while the enemy is chasing down with 15 subs my other CVs near Sorong...it's a cat&mouse game!

The real action of the day takes play in Burma.
Brad launches his final air offensive, now that he seems to have lots of modern US planes to fight me back in the planes.
Brad now understood that he needs to LRCAP + Sweep, so he sent several P-38s, Hurricanes and Corsairs on LRCAP, while the P-47s went on sweeping.
Mandalay is blessed with clear weather for the whole day, and the attacks took place in the afternoon, when my morning patrols were refueling...
We fought back, but obviously the odds were against us.
However i think we can sustain these losses... we lost 50 planes, against his 40s... not bad at all i'd say. 19 KIA pilots and 15 WIA. Yes, i can sustain this.
Soon we'll have the KI-84r online...just few more months... and the N1K2 did, once again, a very good job, far better than the KI-84a...don't know why

but the question remains: where is he really planning to attack? where are his CVs?


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 78 NM, estimated altitude 44,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 23 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 45
N1K2-J George x 45
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 55
Ki-84a Frank x 111

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 66
P-38H Lightning x 25
P-40N1 Warhawk x 24
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 50
F4U-1 Corsair x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 3 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 3 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 5 destroyed
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet

CAP engaged:
251 Ku S-1 with N1K1-J George (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 22 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 41010.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 39 minutes
202 Ku S-1 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 22 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 35300.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 36 minutes
1st Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 25 minutes
9th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 31000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
11th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters to 31000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 16 minutes
24th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes
54th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 10 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes
64th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
77th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 13 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 18 minutes
87th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 10 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 31000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes
246th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 10 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters to 20000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 16 minutes
260th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters to 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 22 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 73 NM, estimated altitude 43,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 21 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 45
N1K2-J George x 40
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 46
Ki-84a Frank x 100

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 37
P-38H Lightning x 19
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 4 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 2 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
14 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet

CAP engaged:
251 Ku S-1 with N1K1-J George (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 20 scrambling)
17 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 41010.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 41 minutes
202 Ku S-1 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 12 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
18 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 42000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 42 minutes
1st Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 7 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 40 minutes
9th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 31000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 19 minutes
11th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 0 scrambling)
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 31000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
24th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 31710 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 25 minutes
54th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 2 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 43000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 25 minutes
64th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 0 scrambling)
11 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 45000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
77th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 5 on standby, 0 scrambling)
12 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
87th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 6 on standby, 0 scrambling)
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 31000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 14 minutes
246th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters to 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 25 minutes
260th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters to 42000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 23 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 20 NM, estimated altitude 44,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 42
N1K2-J George x 40
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 33
Ki-84a Frank x 96

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIc Trop x 25
P-38H Lightning x 25
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 23

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 6 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIc Trop: 6 destroyed
P-38H Lightning: 1 destroyed
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x P-47D2 Thunderbolt sweeping at 42000 feet

CAP engaged:
251 Ku S-1 with N1K1-J George (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 12 scrambling)
22 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 41010.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 43 minutes
202 Ku S-1 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 12 scrambling)
18 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 4 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 45000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 33 minutes
1st Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (4 airborne, 4 on standby, 4 scrambling)
4 plane(s) intercepting now.
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 31710 and 43000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 44 minutes
9th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (2 airborne, 8 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) intercepting now.
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 31000 and 45000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 14 minutes
11th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (1 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
4 plane(s) not yet engaged, 3 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 31000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 14 minutes
24th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
14 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 31710 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 46 minutes
54th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 2 scrambling)
9 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 43000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 16 minutes
64th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 8 on standby, 2 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 34000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
77th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (1 airborne, 4 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) intercepting now.
8 plane(s) not yet engaged, 4 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 28 minutes
246th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
12 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 32000 and 42000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 30 minutes
87th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
3 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 1 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters to 38440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 46 minutes
260th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 1 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 25000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes








Attachment (1)

(in reply to Capt. Harlock)
Post #: 2581
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/12/2013 2:52:18 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6147
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Yes Micheal, but even if he'd manage to load 30,000 men in a single night and move his ships 4 hexes north of Darwin, how can he hope to unload them in a single turn? Cause he knows he has just one turn to unload in those waters...then my BBs would arrive...

No, i think this is a feint.

Oct 21, 1943

everything's quiet. His "amphib" TFs are still lingering there...south of Selroe..., while my KB departed from Singapore.

Ok, now let's be serious: if i'm right and that is a feint, what's his pourpose? where are his REAL CVs?... i think he's attracting my attention there (SOUTHERN DEI) in order to keep me focused there and strike somewhere else... but where???? NOPAC? Mariannas? Far from the DEI...that's for sure... but with all those APAs in the SOPAC....mmmm....


Do you REALLY think that he would engage in a significant amphibious assault without air cover at this stage of the game? If there's a massive amphibious TF with 30,000 troops on it, he'd have to be mad to not have his a/c carriers in immediate support. Don't overthink this one, mate.


Well, that confirms that this has been all a feint to draw my attention to the southern DEI, possibly ambushing my LBA using fake invasion fleets and CVEs.... while his CVs are?...hard to say. I have no clue about that. I can only say that several APAs have loaded a full invasion corp at Rabaul and are now getting close to NE Oz.
If he was really ready for an invasion i think he woudn't have waited so long, giving me the time to bring the KB back....

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2582
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/12/2013 3:09:42 PM   
koniu

 

Posts: 2181
Joined: 2/28/2011
From: Konin, Poland, European Union
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

Soon we'll have the KI-84r online...just few more months... and the N1K2 did, once again, a very good job, far better than the KI-84a...don't know why


I see few reasons why N1K2 fighting better from Ki-84a. First bigger number of Franks (2x more) so statistically Frank have twice bigger chance to be target of enemy dive attack.

Second. George even much slower from Frank have better chance to repel dive attack because of his better maneuverability.

From my experience i usually see that diving enemy fighters are attacking lower flying fighters bypassing all those fighter layers flying higher. I will suggest to set George on 15-17k ft to use his maneuverability to repel enemy attack and than Frank will have chance to dive on enemy from 20-25k. Tojo at 31 is good with his superior climb rate. Just my 2¢


< Message edited by koniu -- 5/12/2013 3:12:26 PM >


_____________________________

"Only the Dead Have Seen the End of War"

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2583
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/13/2013 10:12:33 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6147
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
Thanks Koniu! Yes, i'm experimenting a bit in terms of different altitude settings in CAP. I'm now placing Franks at 31k, Tojos at 20K and Georges at 15... let's see


Oct, 23-26 1943

3 more days and nothing happened. Brad's CVEs are now at Gove, while all his fake invasion TFs are now back at Darwin... I guess I was right : it was a big feint!

Now my KB is at Kendari and will move to Menado to rejoin with the other CVTF, bringing my total KB numbers to 12 CVs, 4 CVLs and 2 "fast" CVEs. More than 1100 planes... not bad.

But i'm pretty sure he's not really aiming to the southern DEI at the moment.

The only thing I know is that the bulk of his APAs is not on the other side of the world (not in NOPAC or Indian Ocean). I know he has quite a lot APA/AKAs at Darwin but the biggest number (able to load 40,000 men) are probably now in eastern Oz...somewhere...

Don't know why he waited so much to exploit the absence of my KB from the main theatre...probably he wasn't ready... lucky me

At Biak/Sorong we've been playing a mortal dance between my 3 CVs (led by Kaga) and his subs. He sent not less than 20 pesky sub hunters to close my CVs in the corner at Biak.... we've been harassing them with mines and a lot of ASW... think I sunk at least 3 of them with mines and damaged many more with my Helens...luckly we've been able, so far, to be always one step ahead of his sub movements... a fun dance...but a risky one, for sure!


What else? Bough the 43rd Division from Tokyo and sent it to Guam, along with 2 more infantry regiments. All these units will reinforce the Mariannas perimeter, while more training air units are being transferred here to act as an active reserve.

In Burma, after the great sweep of the 22nd, he didn't attack again. i'm pretty sure he's ready to hit Magwe now...and i'm planning a counterstrike pretty soon.

I think he'll use paras a lot in the next weeks in the southern DEI...but I have to remain focused and don't lose my chill... now that the KB is again in the right position, I have to be carefull not to let him fool me with feints and mirrors...

The good news of the day is that the Grace advanced to 7/44. With 6 R&D points per day I think I may be able to get it by march 44...or even sooner!

(in reply to koniu)
Post #: 2584
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/13/2013 10:37:30 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6147
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
In Burma I think the situation is now stable. We've estabilished a new western Perimeter, from Katha to Lashio. Shrinking hasn't been really a problem, thanks to the interior lines. Thanks to having less ground to defend I managed to "buy" a division (the 55th) that is now upgrading and resting a bit at Mandalay. It will be railed to wherever it is needed. But I think Brad will need some time to develop Mitikyna, Wazrup and Bahmo (thanks God I didn't develop at all those bases) before he can start to push again...and i'll use that time to redeploy and be ready to move back again. Now the defence must be concentrated in the sky. I'm moving another IJN sentai (27 J2M3) from Japan to Burma, while a strategic reserve(70 N1K2s, 54 Jills and 70 Judys, along with 54 Helens trained in LowNav) is being assembled at Bankok. Soon, very soon, he'll be in range with his 4Es to my HI centers...and I don't wanna get caught with my pants down. KI-45s are moved to Lanchow, Sian, HK and Changsha, while N1Ks are being based to Balikapan, Palembang, Batavia, Sosarbaja and Singapore. Not many, mind you, small groups of 18 or 27 planes... but enough to harras unescorted long range raids

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2585
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/13/2013 10:55:43 AM   
obvert


Posts: 6968
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
Good moves with the defensive fighters in oil and industry bases. I had the same and got a good haul of B-29s on their first raid that likely is still keeping pools low.

Those upper Burma bases are probably going to be tough for him to supply, but your game is different a well because the Chinese mountains are still in Allied hands.

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2586
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/13/2013 11:01:58 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6147
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

Good moves with the defensive fighters in oil and industry bases. I had the same and got a good haul of B-29s on their first raid that likely is still keeping pools low.

Those upper Burma bases are probably going to be tough for him to supply, but your game is different a well because the Chinese mountains are still in Allied hands.



Yes, for sure now he will try to open a supply route to China, so i'll have to be very carefull on my Burmese eastern flank. But considering that we're entering in nov.1943 I consider the whole Burma campaign to have been, so far, a complete success. We've kept him at bay for almost 2 years now and this has forced him to divert a lot of assets to other theatres. Now he's growing stronger here, especially in terms of Air Force, but not yet enough to be able to gain a complete superiority over the valley of Irradaway.

My future plans (if i'll manage to hold so long) will be to abandon Burma completely in the first half of 1944. I want to sacrifice the THAI divisions and use them to delay him as much as possible, while giving my IJA units time to retreat in good order to Thailand. The Thai troops are supposed to disappear in 250 days so that's, imho, the best use you can make of them

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2587
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/13/2013 12:12:50 PM   
obvert


Posts: 6968
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
I had thought I was going to be several dozen hexes behind my current MLR by now in mid-44. Don't abandon it all too early. If he does look to bring everything there it's good territory and you have a decent escape route. As I was advised by Pax, if you can hold until May 44 when the monsoon starts again, it'll make his life much more difficult.



_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2588
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/13/2013 12:33:08 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 7063
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: online
Most of Brad's losses came from his Hurricane IIc which have been around for over a year. Next month he gets the Spitfire VIII (20/mo for Aussie & 32/mo for Brits). You know first hand how good they are. Too bad there are not more of them.

Where is Waldo?? Or in your case, where are his CVs?? Don't forget that the F4U-1A Corsair (78/mo), which is "CV capable" just came on line in October. Add in it is around this time that some CV get upgrades and he had all that damage to repair. I'm only just starting July and the Zeros of any model is outclassed. Facing both the Hellcat and Corsair is not going to be pretty in the losses you get. Since June, the Allies get two to four American carriers in various sizes and those pilots need some time to train up. Shear numbers will be the way to go and then there is the 'magic' 8 hex attack distance.

FYI - Not until March '44 will you see any significant fighter model come in after the Corsair and spitfire.

Glen equipped I-boats: I would train the pilots up in Recon (besides NavS) and set them in Patrol Zones to run within 3 hexes of a base and set to stay for one day on leg one. The second leg would have them go back out at least 7 to 8 hexes to hopefully remove or lower their DL. I would be visiting Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Aukland, and Perth with two Glen I-boats. Maybe some place else to see if you can find his CVs.

_____________________________


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2589
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/13/2013 6:05:34 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6147
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

Most of Brad's losses came from his Hurricane IIc which have been around for over a year. Next month he gets the Spitfire VIII (20/mo for Aussie & 32/mo for Brits). You know first hand how good they are. Too bad there are not more of them.

Where is Waldo?? Or in your case, where are his CVs?? Don't forget that the F4U-1A Corsair (78/mo), which is "CV capable" just came on line in October. Add in it is around this time that some CV get upgrades and he had all that damage to repair. I'm only just starting July and the Zeros of any model is outclassed. Facing both the Hellcat and Corsair is not going to be pretty in the losses you get. Since June, the Allies get two to four American carriers in various sizes and those pilots need some time to train up. Shear numbers will be the way to go and then there is the 'magic' 8 hex attack distance.

FYI - Not until March '44 will you see any significant fighter model come in after the Corsair and spitfire.

Glen equipped I-boats: I would train the pilots up in Recon (besides NavS) and set them in Patrol Zones to run within 3 hexes of a base and set to stay for one day on leg one. The second leg would have them go back out at least 7 to 8 hexes to hopefully remove or lower their DL. I would be visiting Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Aukland, and Perth with two Glen I-boats. Maybe some place else to see if you can find his CVs.



Oh, thanks Micheal, that really helped my morale!!!

I know i'll be on the receiving end from now on...I know the zero is outclassed...and I know he's gonna hit me harder and harder... but do I have any choices? NO, just fight and die...and that's what we'll do!


(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 2590
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/13/2013 6:23:08 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 4891
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: offline
GJ,

While it sounds depressing his pools of the best fighters will be very, very thin well into 44 as you know.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2591
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/13/2013 6:31:09 PM   
Chickenboy


Posts: 18007
Joined: 6/29/2002
From: Twin Cities, MN
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Oh, thanks Micheal, that really helped my morale!!!

I know i'll be on the receiving end from now on...I know the zero is outclassed...and I know he's gonna hit me harder and harder... but do I have any choices? NO, just fight and die...and that's what we'll do!




Don't take it so hard, GreyJoy. While you may be up against increasing quality airframes, you can still out produce them in quantity. I'd rather have 200 Ki-84r than 50 P-47s / month too. Sure, the A6M line is dated, but what's up with your A7s? N1K2-J? Shinden? You're not exactly standing still here.

Also, historically, Japanese airframes, pilots and ships began to be outclassed as the war went on historically. Exact your measure of vengeance on land! What are your defensive preparations looking like on Saipan, Iwo Jima and Okinawa for example? A few more "victories" like these and the Allies would've been bled out. Make it so.

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Post #: 2592
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/14/2013 12:26:17 AM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Oh, thanks Micheal, that really helped my morale!!!

I know i'll be on the receiving end from now on...I know the zero is outclassed...and I know he's gonna hit me harder and harder... but do I have any choices? NO, just fight and die...and that's what we'll do!




Don't take it so hard, GreyJoy. While you may be up against increasing quality airframes, you can still out produce them in quantity. I'd rather have 200 Ki-84r than 50 P-47s / month too. Sure, the A6M line is dated, but what's up with your A7s? N1K2-J? Shinden? You're not exactly standing still here.

Also, historically, Japanese airframes, pilots and ships began to be outclassed as the war went on historically. Exact your measure of vengeance on land! What are your defensive preparations looking like on Saipan, Iwo Jima and Okinawa for example? A few more "victories" like these and the Allies would've been bled out. Make it so.



Well, my SAM program isn't that advanced to be honest. I might get it by 1/45...hardly much early than that.
The N1K2 program is, however, fully operational. Am producing 230 N2K2 each month now, along with 100 J2M3s and, very soon, 350 KI-84r. In few months more 90 J2M5s will enter into production.

Babeldolap, Guam, Saipan and Tinian have each a reinforced division, with several supporting units. Pagan will soon get 2 Mixed Bdes, along with an artillery regiment, a base force, some combat Engineers and some AAs.

Iwo just has engineers by now, building forts... but i plan to move there a division as soon as i get some more PPs to spend.



One more turn has passed. Brad is sending sevral barge TFs to Molu..., while his CVEs are still lingering at Gove and his APAs are at Darwin... is he waiting for his CVs to come up from Sydney and finally attack? Or is he feinting again?
In any case, i did convert a lot of Jakes to Norm this turn, especially at Wake and Marcus...wanna have as much early warning as possible if he comes... my KB is recombining now at Menado. Abe, Tamaguchi and Nagumo are leading 3 CVTFs, while Tanaka with his fast BBs is stationing at Ambon.

BB Mutsu is moving to Biak, after the long shipyard time (she was badly hurt during the encounter with the BB Indiana, when the Musashi sunk ).

We've harrassed a lot more his subs during the last turn around Biak. He seems to be withdrawing now, with lots of them moving down to Molu and to Hansa Bay, escaping from my Air ASW and my mines... good!

Quiet in Burma and everywhere else...

Moving a squadron of 6 DDs and a CL to Etorofu after the refits. Wanna have something up there...you never know.


He's been reconning a lot Truk lately... what is he planning? a raid? Truk is as safe as it could be, with 400 mines, 200 fighters, 100 bombers, 4 Ro Subs, and a SAG composed around 1 BB, 4 CLs and 8 DDs. 24,000 men (out of 25,000) are guarding the base, which is packed up with many heavy AA pieces and DP and CD guns. the 90th Elite Regiment (90 experience!!), reinforced by the guys of the 1st and 2nd Raiding regiments, are guarding the place behind 6 forts. NO PASARAN!


Overall it's almost november 1943 and i cannot but be happy about the present status of the war. Sure it could be better...but it could also be much much worse. It's a long way to Tokyo and i promise that i'll make the allies spill every drop of blood they have for every meter of ground they will conquer

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Post #: 2593
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/14/2013 10:08:32 AM   
GreyJoy


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Oct 26, 43

While Brad keeps on sending barges to Molu and while his CVEs are lingering in the Gulf of Carpentaria, this day saw a series of huge air furballs, both in NG but especially in Burma.

Over NG, we tried to defend Sarmi, sending some IJN fighters there... the P-47s arrived sweeping from Aitape, killing several Georges. When the 4Es arrived we were too tired and disorganized to oppose a serious resistance, but nonetheless 10 Liberators didn't get back!



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Sarmi , at 91,114

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 24 NM, estimated altitude 43,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 7 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M3 Jack x 3
N1K1-J George x 57

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 20

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 8 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Sarmi , at 91,114

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 36 NM, estimated altitude 13,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 35

Allied aircraft
PB4Y-1 Liberator x 33

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
PB4Y-1 Liberator: 2 destroyed, 9 damaged

Airbase hits 2
Airbase supply hits 6
Runway hits 6




Then, over Mandalay, another massive LRCAP+SWEEP arrived. P-47s, supported by Corsairs and P-38s tangled with out 11th Air Fleet.
Despite the clear superiority of the P-47s, we fought a good battle.


Morning Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 22 NM, estimated altitude 34,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 23
N1K2-J George x 23
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 74
Ki-84a Frank x 116

Allied aircraft
P-38H Lightning x 24
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 26

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K1-J George: 1 destroyed
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 4 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-38H Lightning: 3 destroyed
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
13 x P-38H Lightning sweeping at 31000 feet *

CAP engaged:
251 Ku S-1 with N1K1-J George (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 36000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
202 Ku S-1 with N1K2-J George (0 airborne, 16 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 31000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 27 minutes
1st Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 29000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 18 minutes
9th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 13 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 29 minutes
11th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 29000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 20 minutes
24th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 30000 and 31000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 23 minutes
54th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 10 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 31000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
64th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
7 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 34440.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
77th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 14 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 31000 , scrambling fighters between 23000 and 34000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
87th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 36740.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
246th Sentai with Ki-84a Frank (0 airborne, 12 on standby, 0 scrambling)
6 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 15000 , scrambling fighters between 15000 and 33000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 23 minutes
260th Sentai with Ki-44-IIc Tojo (0 airborne, 11 on standby, 0 scrambling)
5 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 20000 , scrambling fighters between 20000 and 33000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 26 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 37 NM, estimated altitude 45,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 10 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 21
N1K2-J George x 19
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 59
Ki-84a Frank x 109

Allied aircraft
P-38H Lightning x 19
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 25
F4U-1 Corsair x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 2 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 2 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 4 destroyed


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 17 NM, estimated altitude 48,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
N1K1-J George x 21
N1K2-J George x 17
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 53
Ki-84a Frank x 95

Allied aircraft
P-47D2 Thunderbolt x 69
F4U-1 Corsair x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 5 destroyed
Ki-84a Frank: 10 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
P-47D2 Thunderbolt: 5 destroyed




At the end of the day we've lost 98 planes, for 51 enemies. 30 P-47s were lost, along with 10 Liberators and some Corsairs/P-38s. 25 pilots KIA for our side. Not that bad i'd say. I can efford these losses. What I need now are some reserves to be able to give the most tired units some change.
Morale remains high at Mandalay. We know we're gonna lose more planes than him, but as long as I can keep losses at 1-2 ratio, I think this is a winning strategy. Most of my pilots remain alive and that's what really matters!


Now I'm waiting to see his CVs... Micheal, I cannot efford to disperse too much my glen equipped subs. I need them to lead the wolfpacks and I need my packs to remain in the most threatened areas. The only thing I can do is to maximise my efforts in nav search...hope to spot them in time.






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Post #: 2594
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/14/2013 10:24:33 AM   
ny59giants


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quote:

Now I'm waiting to see his CVs... Micheal, I cannot afford to disperse too much my glen equipped subs. I need them to lead the wolfpacks and I need my packs to remain in the most threatened areas. The only thing I can do is to maximize my efforts in nav search...hope to spot them in time.


Only hindsight will be able to answer which decision was the right one.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/14/2013 4:55:34 PM   
GreyJoy


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Sure Micheal. Time will tell

Oct 28, 1943

A quiet day.
The enemy is moving a lot of Chinese troops to my eastern Burma border. He seems to have abandoned the idea to conquer Akyab, while 2 Indian divisions are marching to cut the road to Akyab. I have the 25th Army HQ there, along with the 33rd Division, well dug in. Hopefully we'll be able to hold the line.
I think, for the moment, we've created another solid perimeter in northern Burma. Katha is well defended and now i'm recombining the 16th Division so to be able to move it to, if needed, by rail to any threatened part of the perimeter.

Quiet everywhere else. Enemy's CVEs and BBs stationing in the Gulf of Carpenteria, while no sign of the enemy CVs. His APAs disappeared in the eastern coast of Oz...let's see.

I think I've won the last round of the "chase-my-CVs down" game. His subs, after suffering a lot (3 mine hits and several ASW hits) have moved back to Darwin or Hansa Bay.

Frank-R advanced to 12/43
D4Y4 advanced to 4/44
KI-67-T advanced to 4/44
Grace advanced to 7/44.

Think my air production will be in a very good shape by the beginning of the new year




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< Message edited by GreyJoy -- 5/14/2013 4:58:54 PM >

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Post #: 2596
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/14/2013 6:13:45 PM   
obvert


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You are WAY ahead of my dates for these planes. I guess this is scen 2 equivalent so they already arrive earlier, but those planes should really change the balance for you. Especially the Peggy (T) if you can find enough support to fly them.

How are your coastal and NW Sumatra defenses in case of moves behind your lines?

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Post #: 2597
RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/14/2013 9:15:02 PM   
GreyJoy


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Joined: 3/18/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

You are WAY ahead of my dates for these planes. I guess this is scen 2 equivalent so they already arrive earlier, but those planes should really change the balance for you. Especially the Peggy (T) if you can find enough support to fly them.

How are your coastal and NW Sumatra defenses in case of moves behind your lines?



Thai coast is defended by 3 divisions, with 3 different heavy artilley BNs and 3 naval bases (those with DP guns). That's the best i can do for the moment. If he plans to land here he will have to pass through the Adamans. I have 5 forts everywhere there, with enough firepower to hold him back at least for some days if he lands.
Air HQs are based at Port Blair, Rangoon, Bankok and Sebang. If he comes, he will have to fight agains a lot of LBA... not doable imho, as long as he's not able to advance in Burma and be able to reach my backwater bases to shut down my AFs. Not anywhere in the near future imho.

I've diveded the defence for Sumatra following this principle: defend a base every two. The idea is to deny him to conquer 2 mutual supporting bases at once. Sebang and Padang and Benkoleng have 500 AVs each, with 5 forts. Benkoleng has also an air HQ. On the islands i have defended one base every 2 of them. If he comes here, he won't be able to conquer more than a single base and this should let me to keep him under control (like at Molu) for some time.

My R&D phisolophy has been the following: invest heavily in mid-term planes and completely abbandon the Jet program and every plane that comes later than 1944 (except for KI-83, Shidens and SAM. These three have only 3x30 R&D factories each...so not that much). To do this, i've had to make hard choices: i have denied myself the production of 3 CVs (one was a Tahio class), 1 CVL and 4 CVEs... to save HI!... This also because this is a scenario 2 mod, but with the economy of scenario 1...so very little HI production and much less supplies (refineries don't produce supplies here)...so i couldn't have both a huge navy and a huge R&D program. I chose for the latter, but with some exceptions... the war won't be won in 1945...so why bother with all those fancy a/c? better to have superior aircrafts sooner and then outproduce the allies and fight them with numbers rather than with quality.
IMHO it's better to have 100 N1K2 in 1943 than 50 Shidens in 1945

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Post #: 2598
The quiet American - 5/15/2013 7:14:02 AM   
GreyJoy


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Oct 29, 1943

Another super quiet day with nothing to report.

Brad's really taking his time. He must be assembling the hammer. No doubt. But Where is he aiming? That remains a mistery...

Take a look at the strategic map. The pressure on the southern front is huge. If i was Brad now i'd probably chose to attack following 2 different vectors: pinn me down in the DEI and move towards the Marshalls/Gilberts...but maybe he doesn't really need another pacific port now that he has Manus... even if Manus is a bit exposed... but for his next jump he could simply use Manus....

The other chance is Sumatra, off course. The only problem is that Sumatra is pretty close to the DEI, so the KB could be easily moved there in time.
Probably the best ground to fight me remains in the southern DEI now, where he already has a foothold (Molu).
NOPAC should be now a NO-GO, at least untill the winter is over... i say SHOULD because you never know.... I am thinkering with the idea, for my next allied game, to try a surprise attack during winter time here...

BTW... things are on the edge now. The hammer will fall pretty soon i guess... and bloody battles are coming.... NG? DEI? SUMATRA?...wherever it happens, it will be bloody




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RE: Augustine summer wine - 5/15/2013 7:35:24 AM   
obvert


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From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

You are WAY ahead of my dates for these planes. I guess this is scen 2 equivalent so they already arrive earlier, but those planes should really change the balance for you. Especially the Peggy (T) if you can find enough support to fly them.

How are your coastal and NW Sumatra defenses in case of moves behind your lines?



Thai coast is defended by 3 divisions, with 3 different heavy artilley BNs and 3 naval bases (those with DP guns). That's the best i can do for the moment. If he plans to land here he will have to pass through the Adamans. I have 5 forts everywhere there, with enough firepower to hold him back at least for some days if he lands.
Air HQs are based at Port Blair, Rangoon, Bankok and Sebang. If he comes, he will have to fight agains a lot of LBA... not doable imho, as long as he's not able to advance in Burma and be able to reach my backwater bases to shut down my AFs. Not anywhere in the near future imho.

I've diveded the defence for Sumatra following this principle: defend a base every two. The idea is to deny him to conquer 2 mutual supporting bases at once. Sebang and Padang and Benkoleng have 500 AVs each, with 5 forts. Benkoleng has also an air HQ. On the islands i have defended one base every 2 of them. If he comes here, he won't be able to conquer more than a single base and this should let me to keep him under control (like at Molu) for some time.


This sounds reasonable. You should be able to hold for a good while in those spots in a stacking limits game.

quote:


My R&D phisolophy has been the following: invest heavily in mid-term planes and completely abbandon the Jet program and every plane that comes later than 1944 (except for KI-83, Shidens and SAM. These three have only 3x30 R&D factories each...so not that much). To do this, i've had to make hard choices: i have denied myself the production of 3 CVs (one was a Tahio class), 1 CVL and 4 CVEs... to save HI!... This also because this is a scenario 2 mod, but with the economy of scenario 1...so very little HI production and much less supplies (refineries don't produce supplies here)...so i couldn't have both a huge navy and a huge R&D program. I chose for the latter, but with some exceptions... the war won't be won in 1945...so why bother with all those fancy a/c? better to have superior aircrafts sooner and then outproduce the allies and fight them with numbers rather than with quality.
IMHO it's better to have 100 N1K2 in 1943 than 50 Shidens in 1945


It's all about balance isn't it? I also realize that there is a LONG gap between my 2nd gen fighters until the Ki-83 and Sam come online. I did not prioritize getting them too early, and I'm mainly trying to see how all of these planes fare in game, so I'd like to see them all eventually, including the jets. That means trying to survive long enough to make them, so the priority lately is making sure the economy can make it there and there is still ground to fight for. Hard when there is no guide for the late game as there is for the early days.



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RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 8:05:39 AM   
GreyJoy


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Yes Erik, it's all about balance!

I have seen the last days of war, even if in a very particular scenario, and FWIIW, I haven't been that impressed by late war Japanese weapons. Against the latest P-47s and P51s everything will fall from the skies at a terrible ratio. Everything. even the jets, the Shidens or the KI83. The only thing that can really let Japan to hold (for a bit) are numbers. You need thousands of fighters to withstand a 200 P-47-D25 sweep. And it's pretty impossible to think to be able to produce thousands of KI-83s or SAM... maybe a couple of hundreds...something more...but not much more... while if the N1K2 is basically your latest LBA fighter model, and you start producing it in mid 1943, you can hope to have 1500 stockpiled in the pools when 1945 arrives.


BTW, while driving towards my office, it occurred me to think about the strategic map I just posted. It's now November 1943 and i'm still fighting for the outer perimeter.I'm quite impressed to be honest. Never thought I could have done so well in my first Japanese game. Sure the defeats will come sooner than later, but, so far, Japan managed to retreat in good order when needed and exchanged ground for time.
The allies strengths (CVs and BBs) are basically intact, but he failed in the task to really attrit my LBA, which remains one of my major assets. My reserves are deep and I produce more pilots than I lose. The economy is still running smoothly, even if supplies keep on falling lately....
Even if the idea that he advances any further in southern DEI or NG scares the hell out of me, looking at the map I realize that it's a long way to Japan. If I manage to use the time bought so far to create another good defensive perimeter in the Mariannas, he will have to grind me down before even think about a landing...and that requires time.

If he choses to advance in NG, he will have to decide to take Vanimo or Hollandia and then Sarmi... the three of them are well defended, even if low on supplies, and he will need a really massive effort... and then, when he'll have conquered Sarmi/hollandia/Vanimo, he'll have the Biak fortress in front of him. And then Sorong... so to say...a long long way if he decides to take this route.

He could simply by-passed NG, aiming directly for CENTPAC... would it be doable? Sure... but at what risk? far away from his LBA and with the KB fully operative... don't think Brad will want to risk it.

What would you do if you were in his shoes?

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RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 8:17:39 AM   
obvert


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You are doing exceedingly well, especially with the supply constraints you've had in the first two years. If you're making more pilots than you're losing, he's in trouble!

However ...

quote:

What would you do if you were in his shoes?


Get to the oil. Move on S DEI with small forces (LST/DD), take dot bases like Damar, Selaroe, Timoeka, at least 4-5 of them, and build to support Molu and his stranded division. While that occupied your time I would hit the islands off of Sumatra with massive forces supported by the US and Brit fleets, taking three at least, plus maybe Padang. He would have a 3 day window to go in before you could get the KB there. In the meantime I would be prepping for the Marianas.

This little area would be my goal. Tough, but worthy of the effort with five mutually supporting bases and a hard road to get any troops in to support. Even a small railroad between the two mainland bases!





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< Message edited by obvert -- 5/15/2013 8:23:39 AM >


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RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 8:25:36 AM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

What would you do if you were in his shoes?


Get to the oil. Move on S DEI with small forces (LST/DD), take dot bases, at least 4-5 of them, and build to support Molu and his stranded division. While that occupied your time I would hit the islands off of Sumatra with massive forces supported by the US and Brit fleets, taking three at least, plus maybe Padang. He would have a 3 day window to go in before you could get the KB there. In the meantime I would be prepping for the Marianas.

This little area would be my goal. Tough, but worthy of the effort with five mutually supporting bases and a hard road to get any troops in to support.







Sipora is the only base not guarded among those you cited. Padang has an air HQ and a division behind 4 forts, with an AF lvl 5, backed up by Benkoleng that is level 9 AF.
Siberoet isn't built up at all, but has 300 AVs well dug in behind 4 forts. Pagai is a dot base with 200 AVs and 3 forts. I have a good screen of glenn equipped subs in the IO and 27 Nells flying nav search at 26 range from Padang... I should see him coming. Sure the KB won't be arrive exactly in time, but I should be able to move to Singapore-Benkoleng-Palembang at least 1000 a/c within 2 turns.

Molu is basically surrounded. the dot bases you mentioned are all guarded. They can be taken, obviously, but not without a decent landing. Available only with APAs imho. and to do that he will need his CVs...even if the KB isn't there, I have far too many good AFs surrounding Molu that would be too risky to send his APAs without a dedicated air cover. Molu can provide it, but Molu can be easily naval bombed (even if the price in terms of mine hits would be high for me).

Let's see... i'm very curious to see what he will do

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Post #: 2603
RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 8:31:10 AM   
obvert


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That is impressive.

You've got so much covered and the stacking will help in any of those locations to make sure he doesn't just drop 3 x Marines DIV on them.

He has some choices for sure. It seems he needs to get back to some deception and make you guess wrong. He was good early at creating multiple threats, but seems to have quieted on that front. I don't think he has ever played this deep, and I can tell you from my own experience with the same, it gets harder when there is no precedent for the timeframe you're in.

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RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 11:06:27 AM   
Canoerebel


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From: Northwestern Georgia, USA
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I think the deepest Q-Ball has played was in his game vs. Cuttlefish a few years back. That went into late '43 or '44 if I remember correctly. He massively invaded Timor in October '42 (that's pretty darn early) after orchestrating a feint in the Gilberts that Cuttles went for. He then expanded quickly through the Ceram Sea and there was a critical carrier battle for Japan where things got off to a messy start (pesky PT boats created problems) and ended very badly for Cuttles. From that point forward, Q-Ball was able to push deeply into the DEI and the outcome of the game was clear.

I played against Q-Ball (he was Japan) a few years ago. Previously, he gave me "advice and counsel" in my first PBEM match vs. John III in old WitP. So I feel like I've known him well and long. I have a great deal of respect for his ability (as I know GJ does). His weak point is that he can sometimes lose interest in the game or parts of the game (he doesn't like the ground war in China). But when he's engaged, he's very, very tough.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 2605
RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 11:14:27 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6147
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

I think the deepest Q-Ball has played was in his game vs. Cuttlefish a few years back. That went into late '43 or '44 if I remember correctly. He massively invaded Timor in October '42 (that's pretty darn early) after orchestrating a feint in the Gilberts that Cuttles went for. He then expanded quickly through the Ceram Sea and there was a critical carrier battle for Japan where things got off to a messy start (pesky PT boats created problems) and ended very badly for Cuttles. From that point forward, Q-Ball was able to push deeply into the DEI and the outcome of the game was clear.

I played against Q-Ball (he was Japan) a few years ago. Previously, he gave me "advice and counsel" in my first PBEM match vs. John III in old WitP. So I feel like I've known him well and long. I have a great deal of respect for his ability (as I know GJ does). His weak point is that he can sometimes lose interest in the game or parts of the game (he doesn't like the ground war in China). But when he's engaged, he's very, very tough.



So... now that you scaried me even more... where would you aim if you were in his shoes now?

QBall has shown his great abilities in the first year of war. in 1943 he made some mistakes but nothing critical and now he's in a position to lead the dance... He has been very good in feinting so far...and he has just done a massive feint in southern DEI (that I didn't followed, thankfully)... he's only weakness so far I've seen is that he tends to follow patterns... once you understand his patterns you can (with a bit of luck) ambush him... but I think he's already learnt that lesson

(in reply to Canoerebel)
Post #: 2606
RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 12:22:33 PM   
JeffK


Posts: 5157
Joined: 1/26/2005
From: Back in the Office, Can I get my tin hut back!
Status: offline
GJ,

Looking at the map there are a number of Green dots in the Central Philippines and Nth Borneo.

Dont leave him any easy occupations which may jump your lines (they are a bit too far to the rear at the moment but.....)

_____________________________

Interdum feror cupidine partium magnarum Europae vincendarum

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2607
RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 12:25:52 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 7063
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: online
I like the thought process here by Obvert. Since you haven't seen his CV/CVL/CVEs for some time, I would say the tornado is just gathering strength right now.

Option 1 - An major invasion that will place Allied CVs vs just LBA with KB out of place during the the first few critical days of getting ashore. That is why Obvert's post is good thinking.

Option 2 - A major invasion which is closer to where KB is based, but where he can use his P-47s & P-38s as LRCAP. While the southern DEI looks good, it is too heavily built up for him to go here, IMO. A major jump forward from NG is possible.

I would place my chips on Sumatra as he still hold Cocos Island which will give him a base close by to get planes unloaded and ready for the jump to an AF. I'm in early July and the Allies just got some fresh divisions to work with. I can easily see an invasion at multiple bases with 6 divisions easily. He could customize some American CVs by pulling his SBDs (36 planes) and/or Avengers (18 planes) and place a Marine fighter group (18 planes) or two with Hellcats. He could have over 1250 planes easily.

Good luck sir!

_____________________________


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2608
RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 2:25:38 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6147
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
Damn, it's really hard to guess...

The best thing I can do is to be as ready as possible in every possible option and remain as flexible as possible.

OPTION 1, W-SUMATRA: I agree that this would be a winning strategy. once ashore, the allies have, more or less, won the game. What to do?
1- i'm moving the Southern Area HQ to Palembang so to have it in range of the possible landing sites.
2- moving minesweeper TFs to the Merak straits, mining it at the very same time (the obvious move for him, once he advances on this axes, would be to mine the strait and to place several subs near it).
3- Moving most of my HI LBA reserves to Manila (so to be very close to Sumatra but also to the Southern DEI/NG theatre)
4- placing some patrolling TFs (E classes with torps) at Benkoleng at Padang, along with reinforcing these two locations with more fighters (another obvious move would be to bomb those two coastal AFs the day before the landings, so to ground my closest bombers). MTBs are also being moved here from Singapore.
5-One more Emilies group is moved from CENTPAC to Padang.

If my calculations aren't wrong, I should be able to spot a big invasion TF as soon as it comes into my naval search area... so possibly 3-4 days before the landings (let's assume I could spot it at 20 hexes from western Sumatra coast... considering that some ships should be slowed down for many reasons, I think his invasion TFs should be travelling at 4/3 speed).

6- keep the KB not more than 3 days from Sumatra. Menado area is perfect cause it exactly in the middle of my empire.

OPTION 2, SOUTHERN DEI: here I cannot do much more than what i'm doing. I have the KB close enough and my air search and recon should be able to tell when his CVEs move from Normanton and when and if a big CV TF enters in the Gulf of Carpentaria. This should give me time to mass my LBA and to warm the KB engine...

OPTION 3, NORTHERN NG: he has 3 options here, Hollandia, Vanimo or Sarmi. Sarmi is too far away from his LBA and would be really too risky, being so close to Biak-Nomemfor. I bet he'd go for Vanimo which is the closer... don't know if i'd send my KB and the surface fleet in this case... it's a bit too exposed and I think i'd play in his own hands here...but a lateral movement with the magic 8 hexes could, maybe, be an interesting move. However this wouldn't be a critical invasion, so I really don't care much.

OPTION 4, MARCUS/WAKE: that would caught me with my pants down obviously...but I don't think he had the time to move all his APAs to PH yet...and, anyway, those two locations are defended as well as possible. Can't do anything more about it

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 2609
RE: The quiet American - 5/15/2013 2:26:25 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6147
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JeffK

GJ,

Looking at the map there are a number of Green dots in the Central Philippines and Nth Borneo.

Dont leave him any easy occupations which may jump your lines (they are a bit too far to the rear at the moment but.....)



Sure..it's just that I don't have enough men to do that... but i'll do, promise!

(in reply to JeffK)
Post #: 2610
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