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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/17/2013 11:45:41 PM   
Cribtop


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Great game, GJ! Hang in there. I think Q will gobble up the Bougainville/Rabaul/Lae area, then be faced with more difficult choices of what to do next, as you suggest. Sounds like you will be ready when he does. If he continues to try for the DEI, expect him to choose to work his way up the NG coast to support his flank and threaten your shortest SLoC to Japan. If he abandons the DEI moves, expect him to work through the Marshalls aiming at the Kusaie triangle (Kus, Ponape and Eniwetok). Finally, as you suggest don't be surprised if he adds a third prong in Western Sumatra.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 1:54:54 AM   
crsutton


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: veji1

I think CrSutton underestimates the impact of stacking limits. With Stacking limits Greyjoy's strategy is the right one. It is manpower intensive though, but normally to break through in on hex, the allies will need a few weeks of attack and that gives enough time to retreat. As often with Burma the problem is that as soon as the jungle is abandoned, the plains are lost.

Of course the back door has to be protected, but it looks to be the case, at least as much as possible.

I really think stacking limits makes forward defense in rough terrain in Burma the most sensible strategy, and a viable one for quite some time.



You are right, I forgot about the stacking limits and how they affect combat. But Pegu is open terrain is it not? Could the Allies put four divisions ashore there along with strong tank support? I would if it could be done....But GJ is pretty good at reading Q-Ball so his own intel is important. If the Allies are not shifting assets to India-meaning lots of American units and assault ships, then he is fairly safe for a while.



Well, yes, probably if he lands 90,000 men at Pegu he can break my lines... but he first needs to get there. The US CVs were in the Solomons untill 6 days ago. All his landing ships are there AFAIK...most of them anyway. My early warning system is pretty extended by now. I have more than 54 Nells and 18 Emilies, along with some 8 Dinah-IIIs covering the whole Bengal Bay and with arcs from Colombo to Cocos... i will see him coming with not less than 4-5 days. What can i do in those 5 days? Well, i can mass all my LBA reserves, even moving a lot of planes from the Pacific and i can strat rail 1 division in reserve at Mandalay. Not much, i know, but what shall i do? Probably 90,000 americans aren't stoppable in open terrain even if i had 5 divisions...and i cannot have 5 divisions dug in in every possible landing site.
I wouldn't choose Pegu if i was him. Western Sumatra is much more interesting and it's on the border of my defensive line, not in the middle!




Yes, and really "flanks" the Burma theater just as well if not better. It is the long option vs the short....


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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 11:14:25 AM   
GreyJoy


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August 23-24, 1943

The americans took easily Arawe and now has a solid 5 Level AF base in New Britain. Rabaul is plastered both by air and by sea. Mines aren't doing much at this point and my CD guns didn't score a single hit against BB Ramilles bombing it at night. But it's ok, as long as he takes time for him to suppress it, i can redeploy my forces.
No signs of the american CVs... i'm getting a bit scaried now...where the hell are they???

In the meanwhile we managed to deliver some more 10K supplies to the frontal strongholds in the southern DEI. Saumlaki got 2000 more...which is a lot! and so Taberfane and Dobo, where they were badly needed.

In Burma Brad is clearly launching a series of operations against my perimeter. I'm still unsure if i better retreat from Wazrup and Mitikina and shorten my perimeter... several Indian divisions are moving forward, along with some chinese monster corps... tough calls indeed.

In NG i managed to finish the Vanimo redeployments. Now i have a base with 30,000 troops, 650 AVs, 5 forts, some decent AAs, an air HQ and 270 AS. enough to force him to deal with it sooner or later.
Hollandia is frowing fast too... some 25,000 supplies are also arriving here in 4 days.
In the meanwhile, i bought out another regiment of the 1st Division, which will go to the Biak area.

Engineers are getting to the Bonins and to the Mariannas.


Yesterday i spent a couple of hours re-reading my old thread (the power of inexperience) and read some 20 pages written down during the "Suddenly Hairy" operation. I re-read all the comments made by all of you folks about what should have Rader done to defend his backdoor properly... and i got a bit unsure... am i doing enough to prevent a landing at my backdoor? Am i doing enough?

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 12:21:32 PM   
ItsAMadhouse


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As Japan you will never do enough because you're so outnumbered. You don't have enough to cover everywhere so it's up to you to judge your opponent and his intentions so you can slow him down. Also you have to prioritize the areas that must be defended.

Joe

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 12:52:04 PM   
obvert


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quote:

Yesterday i spent a couple of hours re-reading my old thread (the power of inexperience) and read some 20 pages written down during the "Suddenly Hairy" operation. I re-read all the comments made by all of you folks about what should have Rader done to defend his backdoor properly... and i got a bit unsure... am i doing enough to prevent a landing at my backdoor? Am i doing enough?


How long did it take to sail from Pearl with that Armada in 'Suddenly Hairy?' Well over a month, right?

So what you need are some forces in place, some in reserve, bases built with forts as high as possible, and enough air support to move stuff from the HI to thwart whatever comes. But more than anything you need eyes in the deep Central Pacific. A few pickets, some Emilys from the Aleutians and Marcus, maybe even an AV with Jakes sitting in the blind spot between, waiting. Rader made the mistake of not seeing you on the way. His reception would have been much more prepared if he had a few weeks notice.

No Japanese player can put enough back there to stop 10+ supported divisions landing, but if you can take a few out on the way in, there is a chance to slow that invasion enough to fight back.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 2:34:36 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

quote:

Yesterday i spent a couple of hours re-reading my old thread (the power of inexperience) and read some 20 pages written down during the "Suddenly Hairy" operation. I re-read all the comments made by all of you folks about what should have Rader done to defend his backdoor properly... and i got a bit unsure... am i doing enough to prevent a landing at my backdoor? Am i doing enough?


How long did it take to sail from Pearl with that Armada in 'Suddenly Hairy?' Well over a month, right?

So what you need are some forces in place, some in reserve, bases built with forts as high as possible, and enough air support to move stuff from the HI to thwart whatever comes. But more than anything you need eyes in the deep Central Pacific. A few pickets, some Emilys from the Aleutians and Marcus, maybe even an AV with Jakes sitting in the blind spot between, waiting. Rader made the mistake of not seeing you on the way. His reception would have been much more prepared if he had a few weeks notice.

No Japanese player can put enough back there to stop 10+ supported divisions landing, but if you can take a few out on the way in, there is a chance to slow that invasion enough to fight back.


Yes, over a month, cause i brought everything with me...1280 ships...so the convoy was pretty pretty slow. But, doing it with only fast APA/AKAs could take less than 2 weeks i guess.

However yes, i'm keeping a large air strategic reserve in HI and at Hokkaido. I have 2 Air HQs in the Kuriles and the equivalent of 3 and half divisions in the Kuriles/Hokkaido. Forts are everywhere building up and the winter is coming (as the Starks say)... Picket TFs are spread everywhere south of Paramushiro...

However it's not only the Kuriles i'm worring about. The perimeter is so big... he could just be assembling 3 Marine Divisions (never seen them till now) at Perth ready to be thrown against Java or Sumatra... and my KB cannot be everywhere... hell i don't know...

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 2:34:55 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ItsAMadhouse

As Japan you will never do enough because you're so outnumbered. You don't have enough to cover everywhere so it's up to you to judge your opponent and his intentions so you can slow him down. Also you have to prioritize the areas that must be defended.

Joe

So true....

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 2:36:37 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Great game, GJ! Hang in there. I think Q will gobble up the Bougainville/Rabaul/Lae area, then be faced with more difficult choices of what to do next, as you suggest. Sounds like you will be ready when he does. If he continues to try for the DEI, expect him to choose to work his way up the NG coast to support his flank and threaten your shortest SLoC to Japan. If he abandons the DEI moves, expect him to work through the Marshalls aiming at the Kusaie triangle (Kus, Ponape and Eniwetok). Finally, as you suggest don't be surprised if he adds a third prong in Western Sumatra.



Thanks Crib!

I really hope he'll take the pacific route...but i doubt it. Western Sumatra is my top choice to be honest...so many bases to be built...so far away from the Pacific struggles... no atolls....

If he comes for the Pacific... well, i have everything ready to meet him there! Fortresses everywhere


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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 8:03:03 PM   
JocMeister

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: crsutton


quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister

Yeah, using P38s for escorts? Thats the same as giving them away! Bonkers!



Never use them for escort. Much better to put them on LRCAP over the target hex if you can. That is of course, only if you are playing one day turns not two.


Or use sweeps.

Personally I don´t use LRCAP much due to the insane fatigue. And one could argue that using LRCAP to protect bombers are somewhat questionable. It does circumvent the insane losses you suffer using escort.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 8:37:45 PM   
GreyJoy


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Aug, 25 1943

Brad is occupying all the bases on the straits between Finishtafen and Cape Glouchester and Arawe. Several TFs are moving in and out, bringing in troops and planes.
Enemy BBs bombed again Rabaul , followed by several 4Es, both on Rabaul and on Manus.
All this time is like gold for me! I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.
Today we also managed to land 2 regiments of the 17th Division at Sarmi, along with 2 construction BNs and 2 AA units. The 18th Garrison unit, recently saved from Salamua, will be sent there too. The KB is covering all this landings...unseen. 30K supplies are being delivered at Hollandia. 500 fighters are covering Hollandia and Vanimo.

At Kusiae we managed to airlift 2 SNLF units from Tarawa. Good. Soon more supplies will be sent to Ponape and Kusiae.

Biak, Nomeanfor and the other closest base are being garrisoned every day. Forts are everywhere up to 5>.

Everything on the allied side is silent.... his CVs are nowhere to be seen. For sure he's prepping something BIG.

850K fuel are unloading at Sasebo as we speak. Losses in terms of TKs have been very very low. We managed to avoid his subs so far.

Looking good

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 10:32:17 PM   
Cribtop


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From Brad's perspective, there is a lot to like in a Sumatra invasion. It opens a new route into the DEI, there are lots of bases in Sumatra to develop, and geography makes it hard for the IJN to do in and out style attacks. Remember that Brad is the author of the theory that the Allied strategic objectives are to cut off or capture the Oil and get a base in range for strat bombing Japan.

PS I concur that he is planning his next big move in this lull. Think about places he can invade with xAPs since he lost so many APA/AKA. Again, thinking that way he seems to have the choice of plugging away around Rabaul or hitting Sumatra. Java is possible but from his perspective riskier for various reasons.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 10:59:39 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

From Brad's perspective, there is a lot to like in a Sumatra invasion. It opens a new route into the DEI, there are lots of bases in Sumatra to develop, and geography makes it hard for the IJN to do in and out style attacks. Remember that Brad is the author of the theory that the Allied strategic objectives are to cut off or capture the Oil and get a base in range for strat bombing Japan.

PS I concur that he is planning his next big move in this lull. Think about places he can invade with xAPs since he lost so many APA/AKA. Again, thinking that way he seems to have the choice of plugging away around Rabaul or hitting Sumatra. Java is possible but from his perspective riskier for various reasons.



Very true Cribtop.

I've started building Sumatra defences very early in 1942.
It's far from being safe, but i think it's defended as best as possible, considering the limited numbers of infantry units and support troops i have.
The defence of western Sumatra is built around Benkoleng and Padang. Benkoleng is an AF levl 9, while Padang is a level 6. Both have 5 forts and a division plus some artillery and tanks. Enough to stop him cold if he lands here.
All the islands on the coast have at least 1 regiment of AV (say at least 130 AVs), plus some artillery and some tank regiments. Sebang is held by a Guard Division, a tank regiment, 2 artillery units and an AA unit, along with base forces and an Air HQ.
Now i need to finish my deployments in NG so to be able to move my CVs back to the DEI.
What i need to defend my western flank more? I need to spot him in time. If i have some 4/5 days of warning, i can redeploy a HUGE amount of aircrafts and possibly rushing in my CVs.
Even if we are in late 1943, an invasion here would be very risky.
I have several big airfields in range of any invasion site. I have 3 CAs + 3 CLs + 15 DDs at Singapore. 20 subs are currently based at Sosarbaja, while 4 BBs, 4 CAs, 3 CLs and 25 DDs are based at Kendari. If i have enough time, all these forces can be put in the right place...
In 5 days i can master 1000/1500 aircrafts between Singapore, Pagang, Palembang, Benkoleng and Medang.

How do i buy these 5 days?
The only way i know... subs with glens well deep into the I.O.
27 Nells flying at 26 ranges from Benkoleng. 27 more from Sebang. 18 Nells and 6 Emilies from Christmas I.O.
A couple of raiders (AMCs) are already patrolling the waters west of Sumatra...

More than that i cannot do

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/18/2013 11:43:41 PM   
Cribtop


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GJ, that is a solid defensive alignment. You are correct that early detection is the key.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 12:40:17 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.


That's awesome. Keep getting them out and to the Marianas. I assume you have an Army HQ there to help the rebuilding process?

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 12:42:20 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Remember that Brad is the author of the theory that the Allied strategic objectives are to cut off or capture the Oil and get a base in range for strat bombing Japan.


Uh...my guess is the author of that theory was born waaaay before Brad was born, Cribtop. Brad may espouse the virtues of this theory but, with all due respect, he's following someone else's playbook-like all of the rest of us have.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 3:44:23 AM   
Cribtop


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Fair enough. He was the first that I saw articulate it, but that doesn't make it his.

That said, the point is this is his playbook, he is sure to follow it.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 3:56:22 AM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

That said, the point is this is his playbook, he is sure to follow it.


Do you think so? Wouldn't this indicate relatively rigid thinking?

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 5:26:49 AM   
Cribtop


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Perhaps, but my recollection of Brad's adherence to this strategy arises from reading a very long and detailed post in which he effectively stated those are the two strategic considerations for the Allies in every game, and that the Japanese strategic considerations are to stop them from occurring (he had a third concept for the Japanese, can't remember what it was).

Obviously, he's a skilled player, but IIRC from that post he considered these strategic imperatives fundamental. Further, if you look at his actions in his game against Cuttlefish, he popularized the Darwin-Timor axis of attack, which I believe was his way to add a corollary to "cut off the oil," effectively making it "cut off or destroy/recapture the oil." Finally, his actions in this game arguably track this strategy. We see a big push out of Darwin directly toward the DEI. GJ blunted this move pretty well, so he shifts to a Cartwheel approach on Rabaul. This sets up a move along the coast of NG toward the PI, which arguably is a move away from "take the oil" and back to "cut off the oil." As part of these moves, his CVs disappear and we contemplate he may go for Sumatra, which considered with his other moves to date, looks a lot like "pincer the oil, force GJ to pick his poison, but either way we get the oil box checked off." This is why I speculate that, if he doesn't move to re-invigorate the DEI offensive soon by hitting Sumatra or using CVs near Saumlaki, we may see a move on the Gilberts. Such a move would be the beginning of objective no. 2, get a base in range of the Home Islands for strat bombing. NOPAC cannot be ruled out in this context either, but I suspect Brad will correctly assume that GJ, Lord of the Kuriles, will have those covered and at most feint up here.

The more interesting question, IMHO, would be what GJ can derive from Brad's strategic moves to date and the counters which would impact Brad's grand strategy, assuming GJ at all agrees with my analysis.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 6:35:46 AM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.


That's awesome. Keep getting them out and to the Marianas. I assume you have an Army HQ there to help the rebuilding process?


Not all of them were in bad shape. Most of the naval base forces i extracted are in perfect shape for example and are now doing their job back at Saipan, Guam, Tinian, Bab or Biak.


Guys, it all depends on how much Brad is willing to risk a bold move like the one on Western Sumatra.
He's not late in his race scheldue. It's the end of august 1943 and the allies have already conquered the whole SOPAC theatre and have estabilished the first tiny foothold in the southern DEI. He may simply get advancing along those two parallel vectors, without risking an "hail mary" jump.

My KB is still intact. 12 CVs, 5 CVLs and 4 CVEs. Still a mighty force even if, by now, with all those essex class CVs, he has reached the parity in terms of strengh.
However a jump deep into my lines, far away from his LBA, will expose his landings both to my LBAs and to those 12+CV/CVLs... If i was the allied player i'm not that sure i would feel so confident in that kind of operation.
To do it he should be sure that i'm way out of position when he arrives...
Also, strategically, i on pourpose haven't built any of the bases in the chain of islands west of Sumatra. Not a single one of them. Just forts. Why? Because when (and if) he lands i wanna force his CVs to be the only air cover for his invasion fleet, so to pinn them down. There isn't a possible worse situation for a CVTF that to be bound to an invasion fleet without the chance of moving not to leave the fleet without a proper cover.


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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 6:47:42 AM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

Perhaps, but my recollection of Brad's adherence to this strategy arises from reading a very long and detailed post in which he effectively stated those are the two strategic considerations for the Allies in every game, and that the Japanese strategic considerations are to stop them from occurring (he had a third concept for the Japanese, can't remember what it was).

Obviously, he's a skilled player, but IIRC from that post he considered these strategic imperatives fundamental. Further, if you look at his actions in his game against Cuttlefish, he popularized the Darwin-Timor axis of attack, which I believe was his way to add a corollary to "cut off the oil," effectively making it "cut off or destroy/recapture the oil." Finally, his actions in this game arguably track this strategy. We see a big push out of Darwin directly toward the DEI. GJ blunted this move pretty well, so he shifts to a Cartwheel approach on Rabaul. This sets up a move along the coast of NG toward the PI, which arguably is a move away from "take the oil" and back to "cut off the oil." As part of these moves, his CVs disappear and we contemplate he may go for Sumatra, which considered with his other moves to date, looks a lot like "pincer the oil, force GJ to pick his poison, but either way we get the oil box checked off." This is why I speculate that, if he doesn't move to re-invigorate the DEI offensive soon by hitting Sumatra or using CVs near Saumlaki, we may see a move on the Gilberts. Such a move would be the beginning of objective no. 2, get a base in range of the Home Islands for strat bombing. NOPAC cannot be ruled out in this context either, but I suspect Brad will correctly assume that GJ, Lord of the Kuriles, will have those covered and at most feint up here.

The more interesting question, IMHO, would be what GJ can derive from Brad's strategic moves to date and the counters which would impact Brad's grand strategy, assuming GJ at all agrees with my analysis.



A move in the Gilberts will suit my strategy pretty well. I already considered them lost by now. I have no intention of fighting for them. For the very same reason i avoided an prolonged fight in the Solomons.... too many bases to cover, too many possible allied objectives. In that kind of environement the allies can easily estabilish a foothold and use their superior LBA to cover their next advance. While i want them to be forced to take the risk and attack a strongly fortified base without the support of their LBAs. So i can let him the Gilberts...but after them there's nothing apart Ponape/Kusiae...and those are two real bastions. Ponape, particularly, is a damn bad place to land for him. 700 AVs behind 5 forts, with heavy guns, heavy AA. He'll need months of heavy bombings to suppress it...and those months would be like gold in my hands

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 4:43:28 PM   
Chickenboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.


That's awesome. Keep getting them out and to the Marianas. I assume you have an Army HQ there to help the rebuilding process?


Not all of them were in bad shape. Most of the naval base forces i extracted are in perfect shape for example and are now doing their job back at Saipan, Guam, Tinian, Bab or Biak.


Guys, it all depends on how much Brad is willing to risk a bold move like the one on Western Sumatra.
He's not late in his race scheldue. It's the end of august 1943 and the allies have already conquered the whole SOPAC theatre and have estabilished the first tiny foothold in the southern DEI. He may simply get advancing along those two parallel vectors, without risking an "hail mary" jump.

My KB is still intact. 12 CVs, 5 CVLs and 4 CVEs. Still a mighty force even if, by now, with all those essex class CVs, he has reached the parity in terms of strengh.
However a jump deep into my lines, far away from his LBA, will expose his landings both to my LBAs and to those 12+CV/CVLs... If i was the allied player i'm not that sure i would feel so confident in that kind of operation.
To do it he should be sure that i'm way out of position when he arrives...
Also, strategically, i on pourpose haven't built any of the bases in the chain of islands west of Sumatra. Not a single one of them. Just forts. Why? Because when (and if) he lands i wanna force his CVs to be the only air cover for his invasion fleet, so to pinn them down. There isn't a possible worse situation for a CVTF that to be bound to an invasion fleet without the chance of moving not to leave the fleet without a proper cover.




Aye. You're in a great defensive position. Good work, mate.

Just a caveat for thought: Brad's geographic holdings may be historical, but his losses and your ability to defend in depth are not. He's taken SoPac in part because you have 'let him'. The Japanese IRL elected to fight forward and attrit themselves and their ability to resist in depth. You have not sacrificed the latter on the alter of the former.

So, even though your opponent has historical-ish ground to show for his progress, you've exacted a staggering toll and are in a very strong position relative to historical. He's in a weaker position than historical, IMO and dancing to your tune still. Very nice.

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RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 4:50:43 PM   
Cribtop


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I would concur and further add that I would agree with your assessment that a Gilberts/Marshalls move would on some level play into your hands. However I think we would all agree that it is the least likely move Brad will make. I also concur that GJ is attending to the likely avenues of approach well and has retained capabilities that IRL Japan had already lost by now. His inner perimeter will be hard to crack. Thus, if I was you, GJ, I would see Oil/Fuel and thus the DEI as the biggest threat to my ability to resist until 46.

With that, we know Brad doesn't need his CVs to continue to move up the NG coast, and he is too good to misallocate his most valuable naval assets. The question therefore is what he will do in the interim. IMHO Sumatra is still the most likely bet. No matter what happens, though, this is a great match and you have grown as a player. Kudos.

_____________________________


(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2392
RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 5:09:32 PM   
goran007

 

Posts: 143
Joined: 9/3/2009
From: croatia
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
I would see Oil/Fuel and thus the DEI as the biggest threat to my ability to resist until 46.


Grey, I beg you, when you locate his CV's or even if you don't know where they are but he undergoes some major operation in prob. Rabaul area, counterattack and expell him from Saumlaki. Just consider how much time and more important resources it took to land and how much more dangerous it would be for him to land again. Also consider that Saumlaki is a knife in to your hart (oil). You really have no option but to retake it.

Start prep. 2 divisions + 2 tanks for it, but first land naval support. Saumlaki is still in your hands so landing would be easy but do try to recapture that base near it too (he landed on undefended dot if i recall). (optional)

You did wonders in Saumlaki areas, try to do it again. Do not spare your cargo ships, you don't need them really, better to use them now then sit them in port and loose them eventually to some strategic attack.

Your divisions are also better used for counterattacking than sitting in in places like rabaul area where they are just bypassed, isolated and starved.

anyway well done m8, its a great read.


< Message edited by goran007 -- 4/19/2013 5:12:12 PM >

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 2393
RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 5:20:54 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6215
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
I've managed to save some 60,000 troops in the last weeks. Most of them have already been rebased in the Mariannas and in northern NG.


That's awesome. Keep getting them out and to the Marianas. I assume you have an Army HQ there to help the rebuilding process?


Not all of them were in bad shape. Most of the naval base forces i extracted are in perfect shape for example and are now doing their job back at Saipan, Guam, Tinian, Bab or Biak.


Guys, it all depends on how much Brad is willing to risk a bold move like the one on Western Sumatra.
He's not late in his race scheldue. It's the end of august 1943 and the allies have already conquered the whole SOPAC theatre and have estabilished the first tiny foothold in the southern DEI. He may simply get advancing along those two parallel vectors, without risking an "hail mary" jump.

My KB is still intact. 12 CVs, 5 CVLs and 4 CVEs. Still a mighty force even if, by now, with all those essex class CVs, he has reached the parity in terms of strengh.
However a jump deep into my lines, far away from his LBA, will expose his landings both to my LBAs and to those 12+CV/CVLs... If i was the allied player i'm not that sure i would feel so confident in that kind of operation.
To do it he should be sure that i'm way out of position when he arrives...
Also, strategically, i on pourpose haven't built any of the bases in the chain of islands west of Sumatra. Not a single one of them. Just forts. Why? Because when (and if) he lands i wanna force his CVs to be the only air cover for his invasion fleet, so to pinn them down. There isn't a possible worse situation for a CVTF that to be bound to an invasion fleet without the chance of moving not to leave the fleet without a proper cover.




Aye. You're in a great defensive position. Good work, mate.

Just a caveat for thought: Brad's geographic holdings may be historical, but his losses and your ability to defend in depth are not. He's taken SoPac in part because you have 'let him'. The Japanese IRL elected to fight forward and attrit themselves and their ability to resist in depth. You have not sacrificed the latter on the alter of the former.

So, even though your opponent has historical-ish ground to show for his progress, you've exacted a staggering toll and are in a very strong position relative to historical. He's in a weaker position than historical, IMO and dancing to your tune still. Very nice.


Well, i agree mate, but consider we're playing a scenario 2, so the japs (even if with an economy of scenario 1 due to the original bug in the mod) had much more power at the beginning (especially the divisions) of the war . So i think, territorially speaking, i've not gained enough land being in a scen2 environement and Brad has done a very good and stiff defence, inflicting me several bloody noses during the first months of war, despite the overwhelming forces of Japan.
However i do agree with you that my positions are good considering the skill of my opponent. My deep defences are way stronger than in RL and we've suffered much less losses.

However we'll see how this develops. i'm pretty sure Brad is up to something big somewhere with his CVs, so i won't party yet

(in reply to Chickenboy)
Post #: 2394
RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 5:32:33 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6215
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: goran007

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop
I would see Oil/Fuel and thus the DEI as the biggest threat to my ability to resist until 46.


Grey, I beg you, when you locate his CV's or even if you don't know where they are but he undergoes some major operation in prob. Rabaul area, counterattack and expell him from Saumlaki. Just consider how much time and more important resources it took to land and how much more dangerous it would be for him to land again. Also consider that Saumlaki is a knife in to your hart (oil). You really have no option but to retake it.

Start prep. 2 divisions + 2 tanks for it, but first land naval support. Saumlaki is still in your hands so landing would be easy but do try to recapture that base near it too (he landed on undefended dot if i recall). (optional)

You did wonders in Saumlaki areas, try to do it again. Do not spare your cargo ships, you don't need them really, better to use them now then sit them in port and loose them eventually to some strategic attack.

Your divisions are also better used for counterattacking than sitting in in places like rabaul area where they are just bypassed, isolated and starved.

anyway well done m8, its a great read.




I don't think i can push out a 1943 US Infantry division supported by tanks and artillery units from Saumlaki. By now he must have 3/4 forts there and he still dominates the air over Saumlaki with the possession of Molu. moreover i cannot estabilish any constant air superiority there, let alone a naval blockade without investing too much.
I don't wanna get drained into an attritional naval battle there. He has to make a move there and i will try to counter. That's the best i can do.

Seriously a 1943 US Infantry division can be pushed out of that kind of hex only when and if at zero supplies. And, in those conditions, there's simply no chance of cutting his supply path (by sea and by air).
But he needs at least 1 more division to push me out of there... and that won't be easy, i can assure you

(in reply to goran007)
Post #: 2395
RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/19/2013 5:44:28 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6215
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cribtop

I would concur and further add that I would agree with your assessment that a Gilberts/Marshalls move would on some level play into your hands. However I think we would all agree that it is the least likely move Brad will make. I also concur that GJ is attending to the likely avenues of approach well and has retained capabilities that IRL Japan had already lost by now. His inner perimeter will be hard to crack. Thus, if I was you, GJ, I would see Oil/Fuel and thus the DEI as the biggest threat to my ability to resist until 46.

With that, we know Brad doesn't need his CVs to continue to move up the NG coast, and he is too good to misallocate his most valuable naval assets. The question therefore is what he will do in the interim. IMHO Sumatra is still the most likely bet. No matter what happens, though, this is a great match and you have grown as a player. Kudos.


Thankx Crib.

Yeah, that's why i'm planning to reposition my CVs ASAP in the DEI approaches. I think i can move out safely starting on the next turn. The reinforcement operations in NG are going smooth and i think i can move back safely, leaving the defence there only to my LBA and to the SAG positioned at Truk.
The replenishment TF (with 120K fuel)is already moving from Biak to Menado. The KB should be at Menado within the next 4/5 days.
In the meanwhile i'm keeping my air reserves at Sosarbaja and Singapore, ready to be moved to Sumatra, Thailand or southern DEI if needed.
The pacific air reserves are all positioned between Saipan and Guam.
Doing my best to remain balanced and flexible

(in reply to Cribtop)
Post #: 2396
RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/21/2013 1:50:34 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6215
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
Aug 29, 43

Ok, here's another story of this long and interesting war....

The americans were running over the east coast of New Guinea. The more i pulled off my units, the more he pushed hard to conquer as much ground as possible. Saidor, Finishfafen, Arawe, Cape Glouchester etc etc...

As you know we had a reinforcement operation undergoing at Hollandia and Sarmi. Sarmi got a division and Hollandia needed 30K supplies. My convoys have been spotted but, for 3 days in a row, Brad didn't try to attack them. MY LBA was strong enough probably...

However yesterday a HUGE APA/LST convoy was spotted moving NW from Cape Glouchester... seems that his target was Wewak... no surface cover was spotted and his CVs were out of my radars... but that seemed very very strange to me.... an APA convoy moving alone deep into enemy territory? Without a single DD as escort? Far away from his LBA CAP?...seemed like a trap to me....

The decision was taken: the KB which was already passing Biak was ordered to move at full speed a 14 hexes trip, positioning North of Hollandia, while the xAK convoy at Hollandia had to remain in place and act as a bait...

My subs had to create a screening force just south of Wewak...just in case...

man...i was right

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2397
RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/21/2013 1:55:27 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6215
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
During the night a 2DDs TFs moved at flank speed towards Hollandia... but one of my guys took out the DD Frankford

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Wewak at 97,119

Japanese Ships
SS I-162, hits 5

Allied Ships
DD Frankford, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DD McCook


Then the DD McCook killed my screening PBs south of Hollandia... minimal losses...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Hollandia at 94,116, Range 1,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
PB Kongo Maru #2, Shell hits 8, and is sunk
PB Tama Maru #5, Shell hits 6, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD McCook


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Time Surface Combat, near Hollandia at 93,116, Range 1,000 Yards

Japanese Ships
xAK Bandoeng Maru, Shell hits 4, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk

Allied Ships
DD McCook



Then, near Hansa Bay, the first important sighting....




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Hansa Bay at 98,121

Japanese Ships
SS I-16

Allied Ships
DD Duncan
BB Idaho
DD Lansdowne




The Idaho? Means something was up....



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pre-Invasion action off Hansa Bay (97,121)

16 Coastal gun shots fired in defense.

Allied Ships
DMS Gilmer
APD King
APD Talbot
APD Gregory
APD Manley
APA Feland

Japanese ground losses:
13 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Amphibious Assault at Hansa Bay (97,121)

TF 66 troops unloading over beach at Hansa Bay, 97,121

Allied ground losses:
182 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 27 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 30 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Guns lost 8 (0 destroyed, 8 disabled)
Vehicles lost 4 (0 destroyed, 4 disabled)

15 Support troops lost overboard during unload of Fiji Bde /7


So they were landing at Hansa Bay.... ... but many more TFs popped up during the night north of Hansa Bay.... and they were not amphib TFs....









The morning came and my subs detected a HUGE Carrier Force... the whole allied fleet was there!!


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Hansa Bay at 98,121

Japanese Ships
SS I-6, hits 9

Allied Ships
CV Constellation
CA Quincy
CA Astoria
CLAA San Juan
CLAA San Diego
CLAA Juneau
DD Hutchins
DD Selfridge
DD Porter
DD Waller
DD Stanly

SS I-6 launches 4 torpedoes at CV Constellation...ALL MISS


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Hansa Bay at 98,120

Japanese Ships
SS I-159, hits 1

Allied Ships
CV Hornet, Torpedo hits 1
CA Quincy
CA Astoria
CLAA San Juan
CLAA San Diego
CLAA Juneau
DD Hutchins
DD Selfridge
DD Porter
DD Waller
DD Stanly

SS I-159 launches 6 torpedoes at CV Hornet


But we got the Hornet in the early morning







Attachment (1)

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2398
RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/21/2013 1:59:19 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6215
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
The allies had their CVs divided into 2 TFs, operating in 2 different hexes....

The Hellcats first swept Hollandia, finding a stiff opposition



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on Hollandia , at 93,116

Weather in hex: Light rain

Raid detected at 20 NM, estimated altitude 33,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 8 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M3 Jack x 1
N1K1-J George x 20
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 19
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 13

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 36

Japanese aircraft losses
J2M3 Jack: 1 destroyed
N1K1-J George: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIc Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 9 destroyed


More sweeps followed.... but we held our own



Then i recieved the dreaded message.... more than 140 bombers didn't find the target due to weather or range....yes, my CVs were at exactly 8 hexes from his...could have been a massacre if they all launched... more zeros turned back having lost cohesion

But we did went through with 50 Jills and 50 Judys...







Attachment (1)

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2399
RE: Augustine summer wine - 4/21/2013 2:04:57 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6215
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on TF, near Wewak at 98,118

Weather in hex: Overcast

Raid detected at 117 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 38 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M5 Zero x 45
B6N2 Jill x 53
D4Y3 Judy x 49

Allied aircraft
P-39N1 Airacobra x 1
P-40K Warhawk x 2
F6F-3 Hellcat x 66

Japanese aircraft losses
A6M5 Zero: 20 destroyed
B6N2 Jill: 8 destroyed, 5 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 9 destroyed, 8 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 4 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CV Yorktown, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DD Claxton
CV Lexington, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 3, on fire
CVL Independence, Bomb hits 1, on fire
CV Saratoga, Torpedo hits 1
BC Repulse, Bomb hits 6
CLAA Atlanta

Ammo storage explosion on CV Yorktown
Ammo storage explosion on CVL Independence



More uncoordinated and unescorted flights arrived...all salughtered... but we wounded the Yankees with 3 CVs damaged to some degrees... slowing them down





Then the american attacked the xAKs at Hollandia...and took some losses


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Hollandia at 93,116

Weather in hex: Light cloud

Raid detected at 34 NM, estimated altitude 12,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 12 minutes

Japanese aircraft
J2M3 Jack x 1
N1K1-J George x 12
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 15
Ki-44-IIc Tojo x 10

Allied aircraft
F6F-3 Hellcat x 16
SBD-5 Dauntless x 29

No Japanese losses

Allied aircraft losses
F6F-3 Hellcat: 7 destroyed
SBD-5 Dauntless: 16 destroyed

Japanese Ships
xAK Biwa Maru, Bomb hits 1, and is sunk




At the end of the day we've lost 300 planes and 100 pilots, against 100 planes of his own... but we scored some good hits on the yankees... and, above all, we now know where his CVs are....

Tomorrow my LBA is ready to come into action. 150 Frances, 150 Judys and 180 Jills will be ready to launch....

Brad was setting up a trap... he did even write me in his email "A little surprise for you in this turn...". Guess he won't be that happy

My losses aren't that bad. I have plenty of planes in the pools and the pilots can be replaced

BANZAI!

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 2400
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