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RE: Bad luck

 
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RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 5:41:09 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

When you know before the turn about the situation (which many times you do not know ahead of time, of course) then you can set the TB to use bombs and have them glide bomb.


Well, yes, that's true, but hasn't glide bombing been nerfed in one of the recent betas cause it was too effective?

However you obviously need crack pilots (70 NavT and 70 NavB) to do that...and as Japan, a part from the KB pilots, i seldom have this option unfortunately

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Post #: 1741
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 5:48:15 PM   
GreyJoy


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Unluckly Brad knows i'm at Truk, so the surprise won't be achived this time. I wonder what he will try to do...a fast grab-shot with a fast transport to Tabiutea, covered by the LBA provided from Araroe? Or a more normal amphib landing?...i guess he'll try the first one, knowing my CVs are close...

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Post #: 1742
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 5:51:02 PM   
veji1

 

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or won't try anything and sit tight.. "you've got your CVs all the way there ? Well just come at me and bomb my precious tfs under my fighter LBA umbrella... I'll just stay there and wait till you are gone anyway"...

_____________________________

Adieu Ô Dieu odieux... signé Adam

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Post #: 1743
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 5:54:54 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: veji1

or won't try anything and sit tight.. "you've got your CVs all the way there ? Well just come at me and bomb my precious tfs under my fighter LBA umbrella... I'll just stay there and wait till you are gone anyway"...


Well, if i can grab some transports full of troops, i won't wait! Only 30 fighters are present at Araore at the moment... i could also use my own LBA (i have Making and Tarawa well in range, and keep the KB as reserve.
I'm also thinking of using a fast SAG TF...

If he simply sits tight...well, the better: more time gained for Japan to reinforce its perimeter. I'm beginning to consider every day gained as a blessing

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Post #: 1744
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 5:55:28 PM   
witpqs

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

When you know before the turn about the situation (which many times you do not know ahead of time, of course) then you can set the TB to use bombs and have them glide bomb.


Well, yes, that's true, but hasn't glide bombing been nerfed in one of the recent betas cause it was too effective?

However you obviously need crack pilots (70 NavT and 70 NavB) to do that...and as Japan, a part from the KB pilots, i seldom have this option unfortunately

No IIRC, they nixed high-level glide bombing. There were cases of TB glide bombing from 18,000 feet and doing spectacularly well. AFAIK it still works at low level, say the 5,000 feet that is often typical for TB. One of these days I will cobble together an altitude-mission profile-plane type reference table.

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Post #: 1745
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 6:46:42 PM   
BBfanboy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

When you know before the turn about the situation (which many times you do not know ahead of time, of course) then you can set the TB to use bombs and have them glide bomb.


Well, yes, that's true, but hasn't glide bombing been nerfed in one of the recent betas cause it was too effective?

However you obviously need crack pilots (70 NavT and 70 NavB) to do that...and as Japan, a part from the KB pilots, i seldom have this option unfortunately

No IIRC, they nixed high-level glide bombing. There were cases of TB glide bombing from 18,000 feet and doing spectacularly well. AFAIK it still works at low level, say the 5,000 feet that is often typical for TB. One of these days I will cobble together an altitude-mission profile-plane type reference table.

Such at table exists in the War Room FAQ posting. However, since this is a different scenario I am not sure if the effectiveness TB using bombs at lower level is the same as stock. I almost always use bombs with the Devastators in stock because they get hits that work, as opposed to rare torp hits that don't work anyway. It conserves the carriers' torps for attacks on BBs, which shrug off bombs.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1746
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 8:32:35 PM   
GreyJoy


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Mar 18, 1943

There u go. QBall suddenly moved 110 fighters at Araroe and it's confirmed that warships (indicated as CLs but i think they may be bigger)  are based at Canton.

My CVs are moving to Kusiae and more zeros have been moved to Tarawa. We're almost ready. Let's see who gets there first.

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Post #: 1747
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 9:32:44 PM   
GreyJoy


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Mar 19, 1943

Ok, here's my hypotesis: Brad is ready to attack on 3 different vectors, very far away from each other.

He's showing me his forces for the Tabiutea vector, but he's also loading troops at Townsville (fast transport) for a quick mission against Rossell Island (or something nearby). His real advance may be from Port Hedland to somehwere south of Sosarbaja. Maybe Denpassar? Something like that.... 230 4Es at Port Hedland may mean only he's wanting to plaster my garrison before the real landing. There's no other reason for having 230 bombers at Port Hedland.

So what to do with my CVs?... not an easy chioce

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Post #: 1748
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 10:38:56 PM   
BBfanboy


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KBs' role now is to try to kill the allied CVs so as to cripple future landings. Expecting to use them to stop all the landings is not feasible and your defences and LBA should be able to make him pay for any he tries. Hold KB in reserve until you get a sniff of his CVs.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1749
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 10:40:01 PM   
GreyJoy


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Mar 20, 1943... nothing moved today. No new indicators of warning...

The only news (bad) of the day is that the 4Es paid visit again against Boela, destroying 20 Mavis-Ls on the ground... i hate to lose those 4Es transport planes (which are the most usefull planes in our rooster!!!), also because one of those monsters costs a lot in terms of HI!!!

Well, a part of that, the only other news is that he started reconning Lunga....mmmmm.....

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Post #: 1750
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 10:42:25 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

KBs' role now is to try to kill the allied CVs so as to cripple future landings. Expecting to use them to stop all the landings is not feasible and your defences and LBA should be able to make him pay for any he tries. Hold KB in reserve until you get a sniff of his CVs.



mmmm i bet his CVs will be in reserve untill may at least... he needs to repair their damages and, above all, he needs to get enough Hellcats (they start arriving, 130 monthly, in April 43). So if he does something now, he will be doing only with a limited number of CVs or some CVEs...that's why my first bet goes for Tabiutea, where he can land under the LBA umbrella from Araroe

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Post #: 1751
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 10:45:48 PM   
BBfanboy


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But from Port Hedland, an assault on Christmas Island [IO] or Cocos Island would likely have British CV support? His fighters don't have the range to cover from Oz.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1752
RE: Bad luck - 1/8/2013 10:50:25 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

But from Port Hedland, an assault on Christmas Island [IO] or Cocos Island would likely have British CV support? His fighters don't have the range to cover from Oz.


Well, Cocos is already in his hands... but yes, you are right. he may come also with a limited number of CVs....
Not an easy landing at Cocos for him anyway. I should be able to detect him pretty in advance. My subs are already patrolling those waters.

let's see!

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Post #: 1753
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 10:10:39 AM   
GreyJoy


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Mar 21, 1943

The 4Es arrive again over Boela and destroy more Mavis-Ls and Helens on the ground. Was a mistake on my part not to base at Boela any AA unit...but i only have few of them and it's not easy to chose where to base them.

It came to my mind another option for those 200 bombers at Port Hedland... what if they are there ready to be transfered, via Cocos Island, to India? What if he's planning a shift for his bombing campaign? I must keep on looking and see if i see changes in the overall numbers....

Something is moving west of Canton Is. Yet i haven't spotted any CV or CVE there... what i've spotted this turn is subs! plenty of subs suddenly appeared around Tarawa, clearly waiting for my naval reaction.
Everything is ready now. The KB is stationing at Kusiae, unspotted, waiting for him to come up, while my LBA from Tarawa and Makin is ready to strike anything comes north of Araroe.

a CVE (or what seems to be so) has been spotted near Perth, while he's heavily reconning Sosarbaja, Lunga and Tulagi

In the Kuriles started to appear Catalinas on naval search missions. I'm downloading a strong garrison at Onnekotan Jiima in these days. Now i have 350 AVs at Paramushiro, 360 at Onnekotan and more 450 at Shimushiri. The 51st Air Flottilla is based at Shimishiri Jiima, with 3 fighters training sentais and several more training naval bomber groups. My intention is to divide a G3M3 Nell sentai into 3 chutais and to move one of them up there to help the 9 Emilies that are actually performing search duties.

In China i'm trying to shrink the chinese perimeter around Chungking, in order to get a certain degree of safety before moving out my tank divisions. The tank regiments are already marching towards the southern ports in order to be shipped to the different locations (Mariannas, Southern DEI, CENTPAC etc).
Now the eastern, western and northern approaches to Chungking are closed and Brad can only move south his respawning units.

R&D:
The last J2M3 R&D factory is repaired and the plane is getting accelerated by 6 points daily! not bad.
The Ki-84a is moving along too and should be available by the end of summer 1943
Frances will become available in few days (April 1943).


Economy:
Supply levels are stable...but they never grow... producing 26k supply points daily is simply not enough.
Fuel is rising but very slowly
HI is going fine, with 1,3 millions stockpiled
95k Armament points in the pool and 23k Veh points. I'm producing less than half the capacity of these industries and they keep on rising nonetheless. Good.
The only real problem remains the levels of supplies

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Post #: 1754
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 10:49:13 AM   
GreyJoy


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This is the new perimeter we're trying to create in Central China.




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Post #: 1755
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 5:38:49 PM   
GreyJoy


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Mar 22-23 1943

The bombers moved away from Port Hedland... haven't found yet where...

The enemy SCTF remains at Canton Is doing nothing. 110 fighters are now based at Araroe.

Here's where the "good" Brad's recon planes (F-4s, recon liberators and F3F-P) are doing their job today:

Christmas I.O.
Lunga-Tulagi-Russell Is.
Onnekotan Jiima (Kuriles)
Palembang
Roti-Dili (Timor)
Dabo (near Taberfane)
Rabaul

All these bases got the dreaded 9/10 D/L today

The quiet before the storm...


In 20 days we'll have two brand new Carriers!!!!

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Post #: 1756
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 6:08:22 PM   
witpqs

 

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GJ - I sort of lost track. Are you definitely refraining from assaulting Chungking by HR?

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Post #: 1757
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 6:12:40 PM   
veji1

 

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I would say that right now and for the next 2 months for sure, he is not in a position to assault you decisively anywhere. If I were him I would try a couple of coups de main but mainly to drive you crazy by feints and counterfeints to try to at least burn some fuel, fall in a couple of CAP traps and be out of position for when the hammer starts to fall for real in 3 months +.

Thus I would humbly recommend staying as put as possible.. If you get enough info about an operation and really believe it's going to happen well move your stuff around, but moving 100s of planes and big ships around is what he would want you to do.

As Napoleon more or less said, marches and countermarches demoralize an army way more than actual battle and are the prime source of defeat.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1758
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 6:13:58 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

GJ - I sort of lost track. Are you definitely refraining from assaulting Chungking by HR?


No, Brad said he doesn't need any HR. So it's up to me. I'm not that sure conquering chungking is what i want... If i manage to secure the perimeter whoch is shown in the above map, it may be ok for me. It's already almost mid 1943 and my time is running up...i need those divisions to get out of china ASAP. T take chungking will probably cost me a lot in terms of supplies, men and, above all, time.... Do i really need it? No, i guess not. I need to secure Sumatra and the DEI, the mariannas and the PI...that's what i really need.

D u think i' wrong?

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Post #: 1759
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 6:17:37 PM   
GreyJoy


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quote:

ORIGINAL: veji1

I would say that right now and for the next 2 months for sure, he is not in a position to assault you decisively anywhere. If I were him I would try a couple of coups de main but mainly to drive you crazy by feints and counterfeints to try to at least burn some fuel, fall in a couple of CAP traps and be out of position for when the hammer starts to fall for real in 3 months +.

Thus I would humbly recommend staying as put as possible.. If you get enough info about an operation and really believe it's going to happen well move your stuff around, but moving 100s of planes and big ships around is what he would want you to do.

As Napoleon more or less said, marches and countermarches demoralize an army way more than actual battle and are the prime source of defeat.


Very wise. As always mate. Re-reading my last 2 days posts i gotta say that i kinda went paranoid.... You're right. I need to remain cool and not to overreact to every small morning erection

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Post #: 1760
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 6:26:03 PM   
witpqs

 

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quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

quote:

ORIGINAL: witpqs

GJ - I sort of lost track. Are you definitely refraining from assaulting Chungking by HR?


No, Brad said he doesn't need any HR. So it's up to me. I'm not that sure conquering chungking is what i want... If i manage to secure the perimeter whoch is shown in the above map, it may be ok for me. It's already almost mid 1943 and my time is running up...i need those divisions to get out of china ASAP. T take chungking will probably cost me a lot in terms of supplies, men and, above all, time.... Do i really need it? No, i guess not. I need to secure Sumatra and the DEI, the mariannas and the PI...that's what i really need.

D u think i' wrong?

I agree. The key factor is the time and the opportunity cost imposed by keeping units there if they are really better spent elsewhere. If that were not a factor, then denying China any re-spawned units and putting them in an even deeper hole would be good. But not at the expense of making the Allies' job elsewhere easier. The hole that you have put the Chinese front in is plenty deep already.

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Post #: 1761
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 7:10:37 PM   
GreyJoy


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Mar 24 1943

Ok, Brad's finally on the move south of Tabiutea.
A TF (AM, TK, AK, AP) composed of 7 ships is spotted moving from Canton to Araroe. Yet no CVs or CVEs...just those CLs that remain still at Canton.
My subs are on the move. Their task will be to track down the enemy movements and see if something is coming behind those transports (so to say if it's a trap or not). My LBA is ready. We won't strike untill we have a confirmation of enemy's intentions.
The KB is refueling at Kusiae.
My calculations say that the enemy landing could take place in 2 days at minimum. The idea is to strike first with the LBA and use the CVs only the following day, pursuing the stragglers.
But, above all, i need to know where are his CVs...

A strong CD unit is unloading at Guam. Now both Guam and Saipan have their own costal guns.

We keep on defeating the chinese on the southern part of the perimeter. Unfortunately for them (but also for our timings), with Chungking sieged, they have nowhere to retreat so they stand and die till the last man...which is sweet but makes me lose a lot more time.
However i do think my 3 tank divisions should be available within the next 2 weeks for being shipped out of China once for all.

Loading in these days a 700k fuel convoy at Singapore

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Post #: 1762
RE: Bad luck - 1/9/2013 10:38:06 PM   
GreyJoy


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Mar 25, 43

Ok, some important news.

First of all: Seems that from Canton Is. only a small enemy force is committed...an old Omaha Class CL and 4 DDs....
South of Araroe 6 ships are spotted and confirmed. xAPs and xAKs with some AMs.... ...another feint?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sub attack near Canton Island at 152,143

Japanese Ships
SS I-29, hits 5

Allied Ships
CL Richmond
DD Kalk
DD Gillespie
DD Flusser
DD Meade



Then in Burma: we were right, Brad is getting ready for a massive air campaign! 270 enemy fighters spotted at Dimampur, along with 150 bombers!!!! Man, that is scary!


Then near PM...several TFs left Cairns...moving northeast... Terapo? PM? another feint?

Lots of noise from Perth....

No more noise from Pago Pago....

Brad's driving me crazy

More units destroyed in China...we're getting there

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Post #: 1763
RE: Bad luck - 1/10/2013 8:36:09 AM   
GreyJoy


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Mar 26, 27 1943

Nada. Or it was another feint in CENTPAC, or it was just a strange re-supplying mission of Araroe. There's only a little transport TF moving up and down from Araroe, covered by 110 fighters. Not a single bomber is present at Araroe and not a single recon mission has been made by Brad to Tarawa or Makin (and he knows i have an air HQ there). The Richmond TF is stationing 7 hexes south of Araore...still.....
Intensive naval search missions with emilies, Nells and Mavis reported nothing more south of Araroe... only subs lurking around Tarawa...waiting for my KB maybe?

Bombers appeared again at Port Hedland. Beside some heavy recon over Timor (Roti especially), Brad isn't doing much in the southern DEI. All his best warships seems to be disappeared.

Those fighters and bombers in Assam (Dimampur) remain there. Not a single recon air mission made by the allies in Burma since Dec 1942.....

Sent more Nells on search mission at Padang (Western Sumatra) and more in the Kuriles and CENTPAC (towards Johnston Is)... i really don't like this quiet

Lots of recon missions in the lower Solomons... Brad seems to be really interested in Russell Island lately

The KB remains at Kusiae Is, unspotted...waiting for something to happen

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Post #: 1764
RE: Bad luck - 1/10/2013 10:02:19 AM   
GreyJoy


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In China we destroyed 300 more squads today. But it's not enough...not fast enough. Tomorrow we'll attack against 3 enemy corps, hoping to force them to surrender so that we can start to move out our Tanks.

3 regiments are, anyway, on their way for Shangaii, where they will be loaded and sent to Benkoleng, Padang and Marcus Is.

The 90th Rgt (an elite unit from Manchuria) is prepping for Ponape. Will have to wait to get some more PPs....really short on them lately.

Brad has built Truskott, the dot base we mentioned few days ago in northern oz. Now he has lots of big bases right in front of Timor. I have barely 350 fighters for the defence of Timor...which is not enough as you may understand...but i just don't have enough formations to cover the whole perimeter

Jaluit an Miri, in CENTPAC, recently got a SNLF unit each, and Roi Namur too got reinforced.

Wake is getting some more suppies in these days. With 20,000 supplies and 163 crack AVs and 5 forts, the base is safe enough imho.

Now i'm extracting some valuable constr units from PM and sending them to Kusiae and Ponape. Wanna be ready, when The Marshalls will fall, with a good defensive arch around Truk (Rabaul/Biuganville - Kusiae/Ponape - Wake/Marcus).

Despite his heavy reconning lately, i'm not worried about the Kuriles. I have based my defences on the same assumptions that led my decision to invade there against Rader. I'm only defending Paramushiro, Onnekotan, Shimushiri, Etorofu and Bihoro, thus leaving some empty bases in the middle. Paramushiro now has 360 AVs, Onnekotan 400 AVs, Shimishiri 500 AVs and Bihoro 400 AVs, with forts everywhere, Tanks, AA units and base forces. The air defence is provided by an Air HQ at Shimushiri where all my training groups are based (some 54 fighters and 200 bombers). Etorofu is my main port in the area, with an AKE, an AS, an AD and an AG. A flottilla of old DDs, along with an upgraded cruiser, remains patrolling this sector.

Places were i really need to reinforce my defences are Sumatra (FIRST), the islands between Timor and Java (SECOND), Java (Third) and Thailand (FOURTH).


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Post #: 1765
RE: Bad luck - 1/10/2013 3:10:46 PM   
veji1

 

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Don't get all stressed up. Right now and for the next 2 months he can't and won't do much... he could start a bombing campaign to attrit you somewhere but who cares... If he starts plastering Timor, good on him... What is important is that when he comes you have enough AFs and Planes nearby to sink him when he comes.. Till then just breathe, reinforce, keep reconning and having your eyes wide open but don't overreact.

_____________________________

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Post #: 1766
RE: Bad luck - 1/11/2013 12:27:04 PM   
ny59giants


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The B-24 recon model is why you cannot hide KB anymore. Look at her ranges.




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Post #: 1767
RE: Bad luck - 1/11/2013 1:05:24 PM   
MateDow


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quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

The B-24 recon model is why you cannot hide KB anymore. Look at her ranges.



I have been under the impression that anything over 12 hexes for naval search was a waste. Is that not true?

I have used these to scout anchorages like Truk, but not for routine recon.

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Post #: 1768
RE: Bad luck - 1/11/2013 1:15:20 PM   
obvert


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MateDow


quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

The B-24 recon model is why you cannot hide KB anymore. Look at her ranges.



I have been under the impression that anything over 12 hexes for naval search was a waste. Is that not true?

I have used these to scout anchorages like Truk, but not for routine recon.


I've had the G3M3 Nell not only find ships but try to strike at up to 20 hexes, but it's rare. Over 12 hexes you'll see a lot less, but the KB is a pretty big signature.

In this case I think recon saw the KB at Truk, so naval search wasn't involved if i understand correctly GJ's report.

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Post #: 1769
RE: Bad luck - 1/11/2013 5:26:16 PM   
GreyJoy


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Yup, my KB was spotted at Truk during a recon flight of those monsters. On nav search mission they do nothing impressive. I've tried to use them in that role and they are useless... Also naval search missions are much more tiresome than recon missions and you end up losing too many of them.

Game will be on hold till sunday. I'm going skiing while Brad needs to wirk a lot.

We reached mar 29 1943 in the meanwhile... Seems that there won't be any invasion of Tabiutea. The enemy transport TF is retiring to Canton while more subs are spotted near Tarawa...defenetly a sub trap for my KB

I'll linger there few more days then i'll move back to Truk and start sending CVs back to Tokyo for their april upgrades. Every month a CV and a CVL will be sent back, along with some DDs....tomorrow we'll have 17 DDs and 3 CLs coming out of the yards after their 1/43 upgrades...

4es, heavily escorted attacked Babo, unmolested. 320 fighters spotted at Dimampur. I better start producing some more Tojos....

In china another corp is shattered....but things are proceeding too slowly.

120k supplies are reaching Ambon and kendari, along with some 220k fuel


The UBER convoy with 740k fuel is ready at Singa to be shipped to Japan. 2 CVEs will provide close ASW support, along with 20 Es and 40 PBs



Ki 84a will be accelerated to 12/43 in 2 days


(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1770
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