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RE: Extreme measures

 
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RE: Extreme measures - 10/16/2012 5:25:50 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
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So i'm going to London on thursday evening...
Obvert: i reserved at Yauatcha and at Joe Allen in Covent Garden, booked the Theatre (Her Majesty) and the Hotel (The Cavendish in mayfair) and now i'm trying to book for the Tate modern...  what about having a beer somewhere?

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1051
RE: Extreme measures - 10/16/2012 6:29:31 PM   
obvert


Posts: 6957
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

So i'm going to London on thursday evening...
Obvert: i reserved at Yauatcha and at Joe Allen in Covent Garden, booked the Theatre (Her Majesty) and the Hotel (The Cavendish in mayfair) and now i'm trying to book for the Tate modern...  what about having a beer somewhere?


Aha! I'll PM you some things. Have plans on Friday but could meet up if you have time on Saturday. Also, I have a Tate membership +1 you are welcome to use if you'd like.

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1052
RE: Extreme measures - 10/16/2012 6:31:11 PM   
Erkki


Posts: 1441
Joined: 2/17/2010
Status: online
quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

I know the zero line is a "dead" one, but at least, with the "rufe trick" you are able to move forward of many months the production of the A6M5, while for Franks and George the reapair rate is so slow that i doubt i'll be able to benefit of many months of advancing, even if i invested a lot in those 2 production lines.

Also, while the Frank is clearly a superior aircraft that can fight at fair terms with everything except the P-47 and the Corsair, the george is really slow (360 mph) and slower even than the P-40k... so even if it's a clear improvement from the Zero, it hasn't the qualities to deserve a so huge investment in terms of resources allocation.
So to say: it will for sure be helpful, but having it on the 3/43 or on 7/43 won't change things much imho...




I'd keep the Shiden and Hayate under R&D any way. You may not advance N1K1-J or Ki-84 more than 3-4 months tops, but their lines arent dead ends: N1K2-J is in many ways the best IJNAF fighter after A7M and J7W1 Shinden with more speed than the first model and service rating of 2. Ki-84a upgrades to Ki-84r(mid/late 1945) which is the best IJAAF fighter not counting expensive Ki-83 or Ki-94 that both become available even later and have no earlier models to help the R&D.

On the N1K1-J: PzB, who mass-deployed them, found them better fighters than the Ki-84a and in his opinion it wasnt pilot skill difference or difference in how they were used. IIRC he thought that the quad cannons helped just that much both when they got to take a shot at a fighter and especially against bombers. With layered CAP you sooner or later get to bounce the sweepers/escorts so in bigger air battles it could very well be better, but I have no first hand experience in WitPAE(In Il-2 the Ki-84 is of course superior thanks to its speed ).

< Message edited by Erkki -- 10/16/2012 6:32:58 PM >

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1053
RE: Extreme measures - 10/17/2012 1:08:02 AM   
kmitahj

 

Posts: 85
Joined: 4/25/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Not a single George or Frank factory has been repaired yet and, overall, i think i invested too much in the George and Franks and too little in the zero line. Oh well... live and learn!
Now that i understood a little bit better the R&D system i think i should have devoted at least 8 R&D factories to Rufe, than once repaired, changed them to the A6M3a etc etc... It's pointless to have so many R&D factories devoted to George of Franks or other late/war frames so early in the game...their repair rate is too slow to really matter...

I'm really looking forward for the new version of Tracker where there will be the "estimate R&D arrival time"


Before it will be readily available in Tracker you may try DIY approach. For details please take a look at at this post by alimentary and followup disscussion but bottomline is that for fully damaged R&D factory of aircraft model which date of availability is N days in the future (where N >> size of factory) it will take on average 0.63*N days to get the factory fully repaired (and thus 0.37*N of days will be left for actual generation of r/d points). That is of course only an estimation of statistical process but nevertheless it is the best estimation you can get at the start of repair.
You can also use it to decide if it is really worth delaying R&D investments for late ac models. For example for late war fighter when we are setting up R&D right from the start having (lets say) 28 months till its avail we can hope to finish factory(ies) repair 0.37*28 =~ 10 months before date of availability. If we decide to wait 6 months before we start R&D process for that fighter we can expect to end repair (on average) 0.37*22 =~ 8 months before date of avail.
So IMHO unless you are seriousely limited in number of r&d facilities it is worth to start development for key fighter models as soon as possible. It is true that at the beginning their factories will repair veeeery slowly but it is actually good as they won't cost you much in terms of supply in that period (besides initial conversion costs of course).

One last thing to note: the estimation of 0.63/0.37 time division is correct only under assumption of good supply conditions at sites with R&D facilities. Supply problems in Home Islands may have negative impact on the repair speed (due to 10k+ supply required to get even a chance - a die roll - for repair).

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1054
RE: Extreme measures - 10/17/2012 2:12:15 AM   
Gräfin Zeppelin


Posts: 1143
Joined: 12/3/2007
From: Germany
Status: offline
Getting the George earlier is worth the effort. This thingie is simply awesome. Mid war the only tool you have to stop hvy. bombers and still a capable fighter. If it only would be carrier capable In 1943 Zeros are flying coffins.

< Message edited by Gräfin Zeppelin -- 10/17/2012 2:14:02 AM >


_____________________________



(in reply to kmitahj)
Post #: 1055
RE: Extreme measures - 10/17/2012 10:46:11 AM   
n01487477


Posts: 4717
Joined: 2/21/2006
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: kmitahj


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Not a single George or Frank factory has been repaired yet and, overall, i think i invested too much in the George and Franks and too little in the zero line. Oh well... live and learn!
Now that i understood a little bit better the R&D system i think i should have devoted at least 8 R&D factories to Rufe, than once repaired, changed them to the A6M3a etc etc... It's pointless to have so many R&D factories devoted to George of Franks or other late/war frames so early in the game...their repair rate is too slow to really matter...

I'm really looking forward for the new version of Tracker where there will be the "estimate R&D arrival time"


Before it will be readily available in Tracker you may try DIY approach. For details please take a look at at this post by alimentary and followup disscussion but bottomline is that for fully damaged R&D factory of aircraft model which date of availability is N days in the future (where N >> size of factory) it will take on average 0.63*N days to get the factory fully repaired (and thus 0.37*N of days will be left for actual generation of r/d points). That is of course only an estimation of statistical process but nevertheless it is the best estimation you can get at the start of repair.
You can also use it to decide if it is really worth delaying R&D investments for late ac models. For example for late war fighter when we are setting up R&D right from the start having (lets say) 28 months till its avail we can hope to finish factory(ies) repair 0.37*28 =~ 10 months before date of availability. If we decide to wait 6 months before we start R&D process for that fighter we can expect to end repair (on average) 0.37*22 =~ 8 months before date of avail.
So IMHO unless you are seriousely limited in number of r&d facilities it is worth to start development for key fighter models as soon as possible. It is true that at the beginning their factories will repair veeeery slowly but it is actually good as they won't cost you much in terms of supply in that period (besides initial conversion costs of course).

One last thing to note: the estimation of 0.63/0.37 time division is correct only under assumption of good supply conditions at sites with R&D facilities. Supply problems in Home Islands may have negative impact on the repair speed (due to 10k+ supply required to get even a chance - a die roll - for repair).


What kmitahj says is within probability - correct. Given days to full repair = days to availability * (1 - 1/e) which equals 0.63%.

My chart below shows this for the Frank 1/07/1944 (Non-US date convention) fully repaired dates starting at different 100 incremental days (937d from 7/12/41 - 1/07/1944).




Attachment (1)

_____________________________

-Damian-
EconDoc
TrackerAE
Tutes&Java

(in reply to kmitahj)
Post #: 1056
RE: Extreme measures - 10/17/2012 6:18:07 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: n01487477


quote:

ORIGINAL: kmitahj


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Not a single George or Frank factory has been repaired yet and, overall, i think i invested too much in the George and Franks and too little in the zero line. Oh well... live and learn!
Now that i understood a little bit better the R&D system i think i should have devoted at least 8 R&D factories to Rufe, than once repaired, changed them to the A6M3a etc etc... It's pointless to have so many R&D factories devoted to George of Franks or other late/war frames so early in the game...their repair rate is too slow to really matter...

I'm really looking forward for the new version of Tracker where there will be the "estimate R&D arrival time"


Before it will be readily available in Tracker you may try DIY approach. For details please take a look at at this post by alimentary and followup disscussion but bottomline is that for fully damaged R&D factory of aircraft model which date of availability is N days in the future (where N >> size of factory) it will take on average 0.63*N days to get the factory fully repaired (and thus 0.37*N of days will be left for actual generation of r/d points). That is of course only an estimation of statistical process but nevertheless it is the best estimation you can get at the start of repair.
You can also use it to decide if it is really worth delaying R&D investments for late ac models. For example for late war fighter when we are setting up R&D right from the start having (lets say) 28 months till its avail we can hope to finish factory(ies) repair 0.37*28 =~ 10 months before date of availability. If we decide to wait 6 months before we start R&D process for that fighter we can expect to end repair (on average) 0.37*22 =~ 8 months before date of avail.
So IMHO unless you are seriousely limited in number of r&d facilities it is worth to start development for key fighter models as soon as possible. It is true that at the beginning their factories will repair veeeery slowly but it is actually good as they won't cost you much in terms of supply in that period (besides initial conversion costs of course).

One last thing to note: the estimation of 0.63/0.37 time division is correct only under assumption of good supply conditions at sites with R&D facilities. Supply problems in Home Islands may have negative impact on the repair speed (due to 10k+ supply required to get even a chance - a die roll - for repair).


What kmitahj says is within probability - correct. Given days to full repair = days to availability * (1 - 1/e) which equals 0.63%.

My chart below shows this for the Frank 1/07/1944 (Non-US date convention) fully repaired dates starting at different 100 incremental days (937d from 7/12/41 - 1/07/1944).





I have studied that thread of alimentary...but i have to admit that the math process was a bit too much for my capabilities....

However, the Damian's table now clears up everything.... I just have one doubt: does that scheme take into consideration how many factories are devoted to the research? How can u guess the arrival time if factories numbers are not included in that equation?

So, with all those R&D industries devoted to Frank and George i should get them pretty earlier than expected.... Finger crossed!

The game is moving slow...nothing is happening on the map, waiting for the next allied push.
We reached july 18th and Japan is busy re-organizing its defences. Tomorrow we'll try to bomb Manila....we have 3 divisions and a Bde there, with an army HQ and a command HQ fully prepped.

2 more divisions are being loading at Balikapan. They'll be sent to the Mariannas and to the Sopac, in order to start building some deep defences.

A part from the building up in nopac and NW oz, the allies are silent.... Even at PH our glen equipped subs aren't spotting anything particular..... This silence isn't exactly promising....

(in reply to n01487477)
Post #: 1057
RE: Extreme measures - 10/18/2012 1:55:00 AM   
kmitahj

 

Posts: 85
Joined: 4/25/2011
Status: offline
quote:

have studied that thread of alimentary...but i have to admit that the math process was a bit too much for my capabilities....

However, the Damian's table now clears up everything.... I just have one doubt: does that scheme take into consideration how many factories are devoted to the research? How can u guess the arrival time if factories numbers are not included in that equation?

So, with all those R&D industries devoted to Frank and George i should get them pretty earlier than expected.... Finger crossed!


No need to understand math to take advantage from its results. Nowadays mathemathics seem to be like ancient wizardy understood only for a few "choosen"
About your doubts... Note that R&D is two-stage process. First stage is getting R&D factories to fully repaired state. This part is long and stochastic in nature (that is unless you use cheap trick of no-damage transition along aircraft upgrade path). My post above and Damian table are all related to estimating time needed to get this first stage done. As it is random process (chain of everyday die rolls to check success or failure of single repair attempt) one can only estimate expected time needed for full repair. That 0.63 factor (or 63% if you prefer) is such mathematicaly precise estimation for single factory. And because repairs of multiple factories are basically independent (actually there is small potential dependency but it can be neglected for practical purposes) you don't need to take into account number of factories at this stage. Note also that because estimation is all we have then in practical cases when using multiple factories we will see that some of them will finish repair before estimated date while others will likely lag behind.

Only after given factory reach fully repaired state it enters second stage - producing r/d points. This part of the process is fully deterministic as long as you use factories of size 30+. It is also only in that part when the number of factories you decided to invest into months ago does really matter. We know we need 100 r/d pts to get a month of advance and we know that each repaired factory of size 30+ delivers 1 r/d point every day (two points if engine bouns is at work) so from that point onward all is a matter of simple math.

Back again to the Damian table for Ki-84: dates listed at last row of the table are estimations of the moment where factories are expected to enter the second stage - producing r/d points. They are not - I'm sure that it is clear but just to be sure it is worth to reiterate - they are not dates when Frank is expected to enter into production.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1058
RE: Extreme measures - 10/22/2012 9:30:15 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: kmitahj

quote:

have studied that thread of alimentary...but i have to admit that the math process was a bit too much for my capabilities....

However, the Damian's table now clears up everything.... I just have one doubt: does that scheme take into consideration how many factories are devoted to the research? How can u guess the arrival time if factories numbers are not included in that equation?

So, with all those R&D industries devoted to Frank and George i should get them pretty earlier than expected.... Finger crossed!


No need to understand math to take advantage from its results. Nowadays mathemathics seem to be like ancient wizardy understood only for a few "choosen"
About your doubts... Note that R&D is two-stage process. First stage is getting R&D factories to fully repaired state. This part is long and stochastic in nature (that is unless you use cheap trick of no-damage transition along aircraft upgrade path). My post above and Damian table are all related to estimating time needed to get this first stage done. As it is random process (chain of everyday die rolls to check success or failure of single repair attempt) one can only estimate expected time needed for full repair. That 0.63 factor (or 63% if you prefer) is such mathematicaly precise estimation for single factory. And because repairs of multiple factories are basically independent (actually there is small potential dependency but it can be neglected for practical purposes) you don't need to take into account number of factories at this stage. Note also that because estimation is all we have then in practical cases when using multiple factories we will see that some of them will finish repair before estimated date while others will likely lag behind.

Only after given factory reach fully repaired state it enters second stage - producing r/d points. This part of the process is fully deterministic as long as you use factories of size 30+. It is also only in that part when the number of factories you decided to invest into months ago does really matter. We know we need 100 r/d pts to get a month of advance and we know that each repaired factory of size 30+ delivers 1 r/d point every day (two points if engine bouns is at work) so from that point onward all is a matter of simple math.

Back again to the Damian table for Ki-84: dates listed at last row of the table are estimations of the moment where factories are expected to enter the second stage - producing r/d points. They are not - I'm sure that it is clear but just to be sure it is worth to reiterate - they are not dates when Frank is expected to enter into production.


Thank you Kmitahj! Very clear now!!

(in reply to kmitahj)
Post #: 1059
Back from London - 10/22/2012 9:49:10 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
So we're back to the war and i'm back from london.

First of all, i'd like to spend a couple of words for Obvert.

I met him on saturday. I was on a small vacation trip for my GF's BBday in London. Erik (Obvert) was so kind to come and meet us at Covent Garden and he offered us a wonderfull coffea.
We drunk our coffea in this small square, full of artists, music and coloured people from all over the world...
Unfortunately i coulnd't stay much cause it was Valentina's day and i had promised her to devote the whole week end to her...

However Erik was very very kind and understood the situation...

It's strange to meet someone you only talked to in an internet forum. You always imagine the "others" like some kind of geeks (or "nerds"...Erik tought me the difference! )...it's hard to realize that behind the monitor are living normal people like you, interesting and charming like you'd like to be and perfectly "normal"

Well, Erik is much more than "normal". A good-looking man with a charming smile. Polite, kind and open.
Valentina (who's not exactly the most "social" person out there) immediately liked him (she noted, for example, that, while talking about sweeps, AF bombings, CVs and subs, Erik always looked at both of us, trying not to make her feel "outside" of the conversation.... ok, i know this is considered a normal form of politeness but... you know... it's always a good thing to discover in a person you just met!) and said he is the kind of guy she would let give her a ride home if her car would be stuck in the middle of a solitare road during the night... And i can't but confirm her feeling!

Thank you Erik! I'll be back soon in London (for sure for the next Wimbledon championships) and i promise we'll have a much longer time to spend togheder!


Now back to war...

Nothing happened on the 20th July... Brad moved in China some 70 P-40Es (noticed 4 ops losses! )...from Ledo to Chengtu.-...clearly trying to ambush my bombers that are burning his supply dumps in Chukkiang, Kienko and Chungking.... luckly i noticed it before he could do anything... now i'm transfering a couple of Tojo Sentais in the area and will be sweeping for the next week or so.

For the rest, Zuikaku and Shokaku are joining the rest of the KB at Ponape, while his subs are bringing the war near Hokkaido (sinking a PB this turn)...counted not less than 4 enemy subs near Hakodate... well, luckly i have some decent ASW air assets in that area and i'm confident i can keep them more or less at Bay for the moment.

KI-44 IIc advances to 12/43!...not bad!

A regiment and a Bde are flowing to Ramree Island, while the 15th Army is moving to attack Paoshan (western China).

Still no signs of enemy CVs. The only enemy ships spotted are those in NOPAC (near Ducth Harbour and around Addak)...i'm sure he'll advance here once again in the nearby future... but i don't want to fight on those waters...he can have the Aleutinas if he really wants them. I'll keep on reinforcing the Kuriles and the Marshalls for the moment.

More troops are arriving into Timor Area, which is being built pretty well now, with lots of interconnected AFs and several Air HQs. If he moves in this area i can give him a warm welcome!


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1060
RE: Back from London - 10/22/2012 4:10:22 PM   
n01487477


Posts: 4717
Joined: 2/21/2006
Status: offline
I'll also give you & your readers one of my "undocumented" tips for R&D. I know it is a bit late now but what I do is pick 2-3 airframes and throw a lot of factories at it 10 * size(30). I then wait about 5-10 turns and see which ones get to 2(28) first. These will be my main R&D factories. The rest I then farm off to other R&D projects. Why? Cause there is a correlation in my opinion (and tested) with initial speed of repair and earlier completion. This can drastically cut the R&D full repair time and hence R&D advance.

I know it will cost a bit of HI, supplies and manpower (who cares) - Anyway, too late for you this time but I know the other guys will appreciate it. Oh, and just so you know - I really dislike the current R&D model. Too easy by far.

That is why I'm playing JWE's GC Scen1 I've modded so that there are less R&D factories avail, the planes have upgrades only within series (M3->M3a but not M5), and the dates have been set back 1 month for each year.So Franks(4/44) are (7/44). This is applicable for F,LB (some models),DB,TB's This makes sure I have to do R&D.

And I still intend on getting some of the airframes a little early - just not years early!

Cheers -

_____________________________

-Damian-
EconDoc
TrackerAE
Tutes&Java

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1061
RE: Back from London - 10/22/2012 4:16:55 PM   
ny59giants


Posts: 7040
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline
quote:

That is why I'm playing JWE's GC Scen1 I've modded so that there are less R&D factories avail, the planes have upgrades only within series (M3->M3a but not M5), and the dates have been set back 1 month for each year.So Franks(4/44) are (7/44). This is applicable for F,LB (some models),DB,TB's This makes sure I have to do R&D.


You can send me the files for this anytime now.

_____________________________


(in reply to n01487477)
Post #: 1062
RE: Back from London - 10/23/2012 12:01:14 AM   
kmitahj

 

Posts: 85
Joined: 4/25/2011
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy

So we're back to the war and i'm back from london.

Good to see the war is going on. I used to checking your battlefield reports everyday at morning coffee time.

quote:

ORIGINAL: n01487477

I'll also give you & your readers one of my "undocumented" tips for R&D. I know it is a bit late now but what I do is pick 2-3 airframes and throw a lot of factories at it 10 * size(30). I then wait about 5-10 turns and see which ones get to 2(28) first. These will be my main R&D factories. The rest I then farm off to other R&D projects. Why? Cause there is a correlation in my opinion (and tested) with initial speed of repair and earlier completion. This can drastically cut the R&D full repair time and hence R&D advance.

My respect. That idea of "r/d factory farming" is very brilliant one (though also very extreme at the same time). Starting on larger population, and harvesting only best crop for further farming you play the role similar to Mother Nature (or - stretching it only a little bit - a role of Maxwell demon if we compare population of r/d factories with various observed repairing speeds to a can of air molecules with different velocities).
Clever, very clever. No doubt there is a gain - in statistical sense of course - to be observed in shorter repair time. And how much of a gain it is can be estimated (again) using alimentary script. Last version he posted apparently handles also cases where facility initial repaired size is nonzero. So entering repaired size you got at the cut-off day at "How much already repaired" prompt and reducing at the same time the number of days until availability by the number of days spend on initial farming (till cut-off day) you can compare the result with canonical case (0 initial repaired size, full number of days till availability) and calculate expected gain measured in number of days at any given level of full-repair certainty (50% [median hopefully equal average ], 90%, 95%, 99% levels readily available and printed by the script)

As for easiness of R&D process I agree with the assesment but would add that easiness of something is relative to our level of knowleadge about that thing. Back in old days of Classic WitP aircraft R&D was cryptic, arcane and riddled with "urban myths" (well, forum myths in that case) and it was you who are - first and foremost - responsible for propagating the knowleage about it, thus nobody but you are also responsible for making the whole R&D business much too easy.

PS. Damian, looks like your PM box is full. Have sent you an email to the address from your profile. Hopefully it won't get lost.

(in reply to n01487477)
Post #: 1063
RE: Back from London - 10/23/2012 4:34:19 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
25.07.1942

The allies are ready to move...i can smell it

Burma: a convoy bringing a regiment to Ramree Island has been attacked on the 23rd by 18 SDBs, preceded by 24 P-38Es. I had placed no cap over there...my bad. However it's the first time we see the P-38s so far... this means Bradd has accumulated enough of them in the Pools that he feels confortable to send them on the front...
Lost one AK, 2 xAKs and 2 xAPs...and some 1000 men (luckly most of the regiment was already ashore when the enemy arrived). Nothing terrible but i have to be more carefull!

China: he keeps a force of 70 fighters at Chengtu. So far bad weather prevented me from engaging them with my Tojos... In a couple of days we'll beging attacking on 4 different hexes in the two open fronts (Chikkiang and Tienshui).

CENTPAC: an xAK and a PB that were sent to Baker to resupply the garrison there were attacked by 2 DDs and sunk... but a glenn spotted also another cruiser TF near Canton Isl... so he may be ready to come for Tabiutea...moving in more Emilies to investigate and some more gleen equipped subs.

Ha-45 advances to 1/43! Very good...soon we'll be able to start stockpiling this engine and so to benefit from the engine bonus!

The economy is running well now. we've managed to reach the 5millions resources in Japan and the fuel levels are rising again. Balikapan started to operate and oil and fuel are already flowing to Java and, from there, to Singapore. Big convoys are delivering the collected stuff from Singa to HK and from there to Japan. It works now! and the enemy subs are kept at bay with a huge effort of both air and naval ASW...for the moment it's working!


(in reply to kmitahj)
Post #: 1064
RE: Back from London - 10/24/2012 12:09:08 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline
There's still an enemy SCTF (at least one cruiser and 3 DDs) based at Canton island. Moved to Tarawa some Emilies that can reach Canton and see what he's doing there. My gleen equipped subs are approaching from the four directions. A surface TF (Yamato + 2 CAs + 8 DDs) is moving to Ponape...getting closer.
A SNLF is being loading and soon it will be moved to Tabiutea...i wanna have at least a minimum of forces down there.

Everything is quiet in the Solomons, in NG, in Northern Oz and pretty much everywhere else in the pacific... too quiet if you ask me!!

All my subs aren't spotting anything... a couple of TKs moving from Sydney to Ndeni...but that's all!...pretty strange indeed

In Burma he isn't moving too...not even in the air (a part from the attack at my shippings at Ramree Is two days ago)...nothing!

Tomorrow 3 BBs will bombard Manila. 100 bombers will follow and the 14th Army (3 divisions + 1 Bde) will start its firts deliberate attack tomorrow...finger crossed!

In China we're 2 days from crossing the river and shock attack Tienshui... 60,000 men divided in two corps... i will be repelled, i know... but i need to place a foothold there!

In Northern China my tanks are pursuing what is left from his northern Army...

round combat at 81,30 (near Sining)

Japanese Shock attack

Attacking force 1716 troops, 0 guns, 316 vehicles, Assault Value = 178

Defending force 7155 troops, 39 guns, 0 vehicles, Assault Value = 50

Japanese adjusted assault: 157

Allied adjusted defense: 34

Japanese assault odds: 4 to 1

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), morale(-), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker: shock(+)

Japanese ground losses:
     Vehicles lost 10 (1 destroyed, 9 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
     3094 casualties reported
        Squads: 73 destroyed, 5 disabled
        Non Combat: 186 destroyed, 13 disabled
        Engineers: 0 destroyed, 1 disabled
     Guns lost 23 (16 destroyed, 7 disabled)
     Units retreated 13

Defeated Allied Units Retreating!

Assaulting units:
   12th Tank Regiment
   5th Armored Car Co
   23rd Tank Regiment
   9th Tank Regiment
   11th Tank Regiment

Defending units:
   36th Chinese Corps
   82nd Chinese/A Corps
   55th Chinese Corps
   8th Chinese Base Force
   8th War Area
   5th Chinese Base Force
   3rd Chinese Corps
   42nd Chinese Corps
   34th Chinese Corps
   6th Chinese Base Force
   15th Chinese Base Force
   19th Chinese Corps
   82nd Chinese/B Corps

here's a screenshot on how is doing the japanese economy




Attachment (1)

< Message edited by GreyJoy -- 10/24/2012 12:10:01 PM >

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1065
RE: Back from London - 10/24/2012 5:19:04 PM   
BBfanboy


Posts: 2459
Joined: 8/4/2010
From: Winnipeg, MB
Status: online
June and July 1942 are big months for Allied upgrades. Things may be quiet because he has so many ships in the shipyards. His xAKs will be engaged in routine resupply of safe areas rather than gathering for amphib ops.

_____________________________

I have not yet begun to fight! OTOH I have not yet begun to flee. Hmmmmm - choices, choices -always with the choices.

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1066
RE: Back from London - 10/24/2012 10:21:35 PM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

June and July 1942 are big months for Allied upgrades. Things may be quiet because he has so many ships in the shipyards. His xAKs will be engaged in routine resupply of safe areas rather than gathering for amphib ops.



Let's hope it's like that mate... i still feel very weak everywhere except the Solomons...i need few more months to build up my defences!

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jul 26, 42

Manila's falling! Thanks God!

My BBs bombarded (we managed to sweep all his mines in the last 2 months), the bombers followed...and my divisions attacked.
A very good 2-1...quite a lot of losses but the enemy is completely out of supplies and its adjusted AV was very low



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Night Naval bombardment of Manila at 79,77

Japanese Ships
BB Ise
BB Fuso
BB Nagato
CA Suzuya
CA Mogami
CA Nachi
DD Akebono
DD Amagiri
DD Sagiri
DD Shikinami
DD Hibiki
DD Akatsuki

Allied ground losses:
636 casualties reported
Squads: 4 destroyed, 65 disabled
Non Combat: 8 destroyed, 76 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 16 (2 destroyed, 14 disabled)

Manpower hits 2
Fires 104
Airbase hits 1
Airbase supply hits 1
Runway hits 15
Port hits 2
Port fuel hits 1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Morning Air attack on 16th Naval Guard Unit, at 57,131 (Corunna Downs)

Weather in hex: Moderate rain

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-25C Mitchell x 16

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
114 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 16 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 7 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
16 x B-25C Mitchell bombing from 7000 feet
Ground Attack: 6 x 500 lb GP Bomb



damn! He started to attack from Exmouth my troops south of Port Hedland... i won't be able to defend these positions much longer...


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ground combat at Manila (79,77)

Japanese Deliberate attack

Attacking force 53748 troops, 671 guns, 316 vehicles, Assault Value = 1629

Defending force 64252 troops, 633 guns, 290 vehicles, Assault Value = 1890

Japanese adjusted assault: 2701

Allied adjusted defense: 1231

Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 (fort level 3)

Japanese Assault reduces fortifications to 2

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
4442 casualties reported
Squads: 9 destroyed, 386 disabled
Non Combat: 2 destroyed, 74 disabled
Engineers: 3 destroyed, 66 disabled
Guns lost 68 (2 destroyed, 66 disabled)
Vehicles lost 27 (1 destroyed, 26 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
1232 casualties reported
Squads: 11 destroyed, 80 disabled
Non Combat: 35 destroyed, 36 disabled
Engineers: 2 destroyed, 10 disabled
Guns lost 17 (1 destroyed, 16 disabled)
Vehicles lost 51 (42 destroyed, 9 disabled)
Units destroyed 1

Assaulting units:
38th Division
16th Division
65th Brigade
21st Ind Engineer Regiment
23rd Nav Gd Unit
3rd Ind Engineer Regiment
6th Guards Division
4th Fleet
8th Medium Field Artillery Regiment
1st Art.Mortar Regiment
9th Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
2nd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
20th Ind. Mtn Gun Battalion
3rd Ind.Hvy.Art. Battalion
14th Army
1st Medium Field Artillery Regiment
2nd Mortar Battalion
15th Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion
1st Hvy.Artillery Regiment
2nd Ind.Art.Mortar Battalion

Defending units:
192nd Tank Battalion
21st PA Infantry Division
194th Tank Battalion
71st PA Infantry Division
57th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
102nd PA Infantry Division
11th PA Infantry Division
31st Infantry Regiment
4th Marine Regiment
14th PS Engineer Regiment
51st PA Infantry Division
41st PA Infantry Division
26th PS Cavalry Regiment
31st PA Infantry Division
45th PS Infantry Regimental Combat Team
1st PA Infantry Division
91st PA Infantry Division
2nd PA Constabulary Division
Nichols Field AAF Base Force
Asiatic Fleet
II Philippine Corps
Cavite USN Base Force
I Philippine Corps
USAFFE
Far East USAAF
Provisional GMC Grp
88th PS Field Artillery Regiment
301st Construction Battalion
200th & 515th Coast AA Regiment
301st PA Field Artillery Regiment





(in reply to BBfanboy)
Post #: 1067
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 9:19:25 AM   
obvert


Posts: 6957
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
For a 2:1 you got a lot of disablements! But at least took out a bunch of vehicles, hopefully tanks. Once this is done, you could always take these troops and land at Exmouth if you want to trap those troops marching to Port Hedland. His CVs are likely out of position for a while after the northern adventure, and it's tough to support these bases from other parts of OZ. You really need control of the IO to have a hold on them.

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1068
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 9:33:51 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

For a 2:1 you got a lot of disablements! But at least took out a bunch of vehicles, hopefully tanks. Once this is done, you could always take these troops and land at Exmouth if you want to trap those troops marching to Port Hedland. His CVs are likely out of position for a while after the northern adventure, and it's tough to support these bases from other parts of OZ. You really need control of the IO to have a hold on them.


mm... hard to do it Erik.
Exmouth is defended by not less than 15,000 men. Among them my recon have already spotted a Oz Bde...so i'm pretty sure the place is well defended and well built. Mines will surely be present.
Moreover Carnavon is a level 7 AF... and he has a solid air search activity there...pretty hard to sneak there unseen.
Once the landing bonus has passed, land anywhere without 100 preparation for Japan is a suicide...landing against a well defended target is madness imho.

Same goes for Cocos Island and for Ndeni... those are his main outposts and are already too well defended and well built to be approached.

Port Hedland will be used as a delaying ground...wanna keep my assets intact for when he will be forced to approach my real defensive perimeter.

The Indian Ocean is strongly in his hands...without Cocos i am blind there and i am forced to remain passive and consolidate what i have already gained rather than experiment anything offensively now.

The result achieved at Manila isn't bad imho. Considering this was the very first attack...i'll rest a bit my troops and then i'll attack again... in the meanwhile my bombers will keep the enemy distrupted...without supplies that bastion won't last long!

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1069
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 10:26:21 AM   
obvert


Posts: 6957
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
Status: offline
I see. Well, your game will help me to understand what happens when the Allies have control of the IO and West Oz bases to use in late 42 then!

Yes, you should be fine in Manila. It's just frustrating when you get a positive result but your casualties are greater.

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1070
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 10:35:51 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert

I see. Well, your game will help me to understand what happens when the Allies have control of the IO and West Oz bases to use in late 42 then!

Yes, you should be fine in Manila. It's just frustrating when you get a positive result but your casualties are greater.



Oh, i'm pretty sure that the west will be a main playing ground in this game. Java, Sumatra and Timor will need a lot of attention. I will need to study a good defensive plan for this whole area...cause we all know that if he puts a foot here and so gets close enough to the SRA oilfields...game over for Japan well before 1945!!!!

So i think i'll have to defend a little bit less in the pacific and concentrate more in the SRA... but it will be fun, no matter what!

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1071
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 11:11:37 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 4786
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


Same goes for Cocos Island and for Ndeni... those are his main outposts and are already too well defended and well built to be approached.



GJ, I may sound like crying wolf here...But I really think you need to take care of Cocos. Ndeni isn´t that big of a deal but Cocos is.

Like you say yourself it makes you blind to whatever approaches from the Indian Ocean. Its like having a back door to the SRA. You are still only in 42 and even with the amphib bonus over taking cocos should be quite possible. I don´t know why you fear it so much? You still have KB intact yes? You still have more ships, troops and planes than he does.

Start prepping troops for it and in the meantime start pounding it to dust using KB and bombardments! The only thing he can do to stop you is to bring the all the Allied carriers which gives you a chance to fight him close to home. Cocos is only a 15.000 max stacking so a division backed up by massive bombardments from the air and see for a few week and you will take it.

As you know I have no idea what the Jap side looks like but I see no reason to fear a 15k limit island close to home while you have massive superiority on the sea?

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1072
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 11:18:05 AM   
ny59giants


Posts: 7040
Joined: 1/10/2005
Status: offline
What does Brad have in western Australia??
Have you conduct a good enough recon of his bases there and of Albany and Esperance from your Glen equipped subs??
I ask because a planned attack to land at Esperance and then drive for Kalgoorlie (along with a para drop) might help you prolong the protection of your Oil supplies in the SRA. Even before Olorin (Nick) invaded Australia in my game, I think taking this area should be strongly considered by a Japanese player. It use to be just the northern coast of Australia from Exmouth to Horn island, but I've come to believe that western Australia has so many benefits for Japan.
You can still bring overwhelming force to an area.

_____________________________


(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1073
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 11:33:07 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: JocMeister


quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy


Same goes for Cocos Island and for Ndeni... those are his main outposts and are already too well defended and well built to be approached.



GJ, I may sound like crying wolf here...But I really think you need to take care of Cocos. Ndeni isn´t that big of a deal but Cocos is.

Like you say yourself it makes you blind to whatever approaches from the Indian Ocean. Its like having a back door to the SRA. You are still only in 42 and even with the amphib bonus over taking cocos should be quite possible. I don´t know why you fear it so much? You still have KB intact yes? You still have more ships, troops and planes than he does.

Start prepping troops for it and in the meantime start pounding it to dust using KB and bombardments! The only thing he can do to stop you is to bring the all the Allied carriers which gives you a chance to fight him close to home. Cocos is only a 15.000 max stacking so a division backed up by massive bombardments from the air and see for a few week and you will take it.

As you know I have no idea what the Jap side looks like but I see no reason to fear a 15k limit island close to home while you have massive superiority on the sea?


Thank you Joc!
Why i fear it? Because by now he may have 2 Aus regiment there, plus maybe some CD guns and Tanks. Let's say a level 4 forts (but maybe more by now)...not to talk about mines (Brad had used them intensively during the SRA campaign...and i had suffered a lot of sinkings because of them).
Then it is an atoll...which means i'll have to shock attack immediately (same for Ndeni)... even a 100% prepped division won't have any chance, imho, to take out a couple of Aus regiments, backed by tanks and artillery and forts, in a shock attack.
I'll have first to strangle it for months... but i don't have the means to do that. The KB ground attacks are worthless (remember that in this mod the effect of bombs against ground targets has been reduced even if slightly) and the only thing that may work is a series of BB bombings...

I've seen against Rader what can an allied defence do once the first months have passed...
I had 400 AVs at Tulagi, behind 5 forts... he landed 5000 AVs (fivethousands!)... and he never managed to break my lines...
Same when he landed 2 divisions at Amichitka Island in early 1943...i had one RCT and one Canadian Regiment... and they got immediately repulsed back to sea!

Have you seen recently what Koniu have suffered landing a 100%prepped division against a single american regiment in the Marshalls?

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 1074
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 11:33:10 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 4786
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: online
I also think western OZ is can be a huge benefit to Japan IF the allied player are relying heavily on CT-Perth. But I also believe it will only take about a month to adjust to a loss of Perth. I think many Japanese players are trying very hard to "cut off" OZ. But I´m a firm believer its not possible to do so. Then again I´m usually wrong about stuff!

I think in your situation taking out Cocos should take precedence over all other things. I think it will become a huge thorn in your side otherwise. The longer you wait the harder it will become.

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 1075
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 11:40:29 AM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 4786
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: online

quote:

ORIGINAL: GreyJoy
Thank you Joc!
Why i fear it? Because by now he may have 2 Aus regiment there, plus maybe some CD guns and Tanks. Let's say a level 4 forts (but maybe more by now)...not to talk about mines (Brad had used them intensively during the SRA campaign...and i had suffered a lot of sinkings because of them).
Then it is an atoll...which means i'll have to shock attack immediately (same for Ndeni)... even a 100% prepped division won't have any chance, imho, to take out a couple of Aus regiments, backed by tanks and artillery and forts, in a shock attack.
I'll have first to strangle it for months... but i don't have the means to do that. The KB ground attacks are worthless (remember that in this mod the effect of bombs against ground targets has been reduced even if slightly) and the only thing that may work is a series of BB bombings...

I've seen against Rader what can an allied defence do once the first months have passed...
I had 400 AVs at Tulagi, behind 5 forts... he landed 5000 AVs (fivethousands!)... and he never managed to break my lines...
Same when he landed 2 divisions at Amichitka Island in early 1943...i had one RCT and one Canadian Regiment... and they got immediately repulsed back to sea!

Have you seen recently what Koniu have suffered landing a 100%prepped division against a single american regiment in the Marshalls?


I know it will not be cost free. But I don´t think Cocos is an Atoll so you won´t have to deal with the shock attack. And it doesn´t really matter how much he has in place if you starve them out of supply right?

If you can set up running bombardments using BBs and bombard away for a few weeks I´m sure its doable! If I remember correctly Joseph (SqzMyLemon) used bombardments with very good effect to to a counter invasion of Tulagi.

I think whatever the cost it will be worth it. And I don´t think it will cost you that much to be honest. Close the AF, close the sea around it and bomb away! I think you should give it a try at least!

Btw, can´t you strike Cocos with LBA once the AF is closed?

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1076
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 11:41:16 AM   
GreyJoy


Posts: 6135
Joined: 3/18/2011
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: ny59giants

What does Brad have in western Australia??
Have you conduct a good enough recon of his bases there and of Albany and Esperance from your Glen equipped subs??
I ask because a planned attack to land at Esperance and then drive for Kalgoorlie (along with a para drop) might help you prolong the protection of your Oil supplies in the SRA. Even before Olorin (Nick) invaded Australia in my game, I think taking this area should be strongly considered by a Japanese player. It use to be just the northern coast of Australia from Exmouth to Horn island, but I've come to believe that western Australia has so many benefits for Japan.
You can still bring overwhelming force to an area.



Sincerly i don't know... Carnavon has a lot of forces and Exmouth too... but Micheal, remember that my supply situation is awful... i surely have not any supply left to spare for such an offensive... western Oz, in August 42?

Shouldn't i just sit and wait to counter his attacks by now? I would like to last the longer possible...

Maybe i could consider landing at Exmouth...but then i'll become a target practice ground for his bombers at Carnavon (both are level 7 AFs and building fast)... Consider also that my aviation support is halved in this Mod... i cannot simply send base forces everywhere like it used to be in stock...my logistical assets are very very tiny... and if i need to be ready in key areas when he will decide to invade (say Java, Sumatra, Adamans etc)...i need not to waste foundamental base forces and intact divisions for these very risking operations...

But i may be wrong...obviously...i may be understimating my strenght.... but i really don't feel strong at the present state of art

(in reply to ny59giants)
Post #: 1077
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 2:43:46 PM   
obvert


Posts: 6957
Joined: 1/17/2011
From: PDX (and now) London, UK
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quote:

I know it will not be cost free. But I don´t think Cocos is an Atoll so you won´t have to deal with the shock attack. And it doesn´t really matter how much he has in place if you starve them out of supply right?


It is an atoll. So it will hurt. But you can starve them.

Knowing your situation as a first-time IJ player and playing a tough scenario economically, against a tough opponent. I think actually you're being wise. Not to say you can't still be tough.

You could let him think you're not doing well by not really being aggressive, at the same time hoarding supply and prepping forces and forts. Then when he attacks, the earlier it is the better chance you have for a counter-invasion or invasion behind the attack. It seems getting comfortable with your situation and getting defenses at least started will make you feel like you have more options.




Attachment (1)

_____________________________


"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm." - Winston Churchill

(in reply to GreyJoy)
Post #: 1078
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 3:12:49 PM   
JocMeister

 

Posts: 4786
Joined: 7/29/2009
From: Sweden
Status: online
Ah, you are right Erik. It is indeed an atoll. But I still think taking Cocos is critical. And with complete air and sea superiority it should be pretty straight forward.

(in reply to obvert)
Post #: 1079
RE: Back from London - 10/25/2012 4:27:35 PM   
princep01

 

Posts: 935
Joined: 8/7/2006
From: Texas
Status: offline
Ser Greyjoy, as much as I respect Joc, I totally disagree with him about Cocos Is.  Why all the focus on and fuss about it?  It is just not worth the risk of losses or the resources expended to take a place of such minimal value.

Answer this.  If the Allies do hold it, what do they do from there that they could not do by grabbing an island off Sumatra or coming in on a cloud of CVs.  That is, what is the risk to you of the Allies retaining it?  It is easy for the Allies to retake if you grab it.  Good practice at low risk for them. Worse, it is just another exposed outpost you have to defend (and you can't really defend it successfully).  Why bother?  The cost-benefit is just not there.

But, what taking it really is is another good example of Japanese overextension.  Overextension seldom leads to anything good and frequently enough leads to having your Little Yellow Bastard head handed to you.  I would avoid the place like the plague at this point as it is certain to be well defended. 

Spend those resources on completing your STRATEGIC conquests, developing new toys and building your defensive lines (yes, lines, as in defensive lines in depth).  Cocos is a diversion of the worst sort.  Don't go there.         

(in reply to JocMeister)
Post #: 1080
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