IMO, you guys have identifed both the beauty (simple game mechanics) and frustration (simple game mechanics) of the game.
If you think about it, whether you score a hit or miss is based simply on a simple 2d6 dice roll result. The higher the roll, the better your chances for a hit. You guys know as well as I do that the game gives you the opportunity to modify (i.e. Add to) the dice roll. Plus, you don't have to figure out what you need to roll or the percent chance you have, because the game tells you on the screen.
So it's really simple to increase your chances by using CAPs, firing at close range, firing from the flanks, using group combat, etc. Now what can be a little frustrating is after all your planning to get a 83% hit chance, YOU ROLL A THREE! Now it's the computers turn, it needs a 10 to score a hit and IT ROLLS A TWELVE!
I try to accept the fact that the dice rolls will equal out, try to use good tactics and enjoy what I think is a really great game.
BTW, I'm by no means a military genius, and I'm down to the last two ATB scenarios, having won all (Normal difficulty) BUT the Monster scenario.
That's the truth! I'm still waiting for my die rolls to "equal out"! I am the worst roller, with real or digital dice! I seldom hit at 83% (the computer always hits me), and at 17% I hit about 50% of the time!? Great game, but man my rolling stinks.