I think what glvaca is saying has merit. There is no such thing as a "sure win"..while many here always want the historic results to be a "sure thing" also..Setting that aside, he is saying that an already mauled division, low on everything, hard and "soft" factors such as morale, included, should not be able to beat a freshly arrived division on turn 16, for certain, as there were few examples even in history of the Soviets fighting well until winter that year, and most of their successes came from capable strong units, not from divisions that, as noted, had already been hit and knocked backwards immediately before, and thus, as well, recon should not play a factor, as the cavalry division in question, was already known, and defeated once, so would not likely become stronger, than it was when it had just lost a fight a few days before.
Soviets had plenty of successes before the winter. Germany's casualties in July where the highest for any month of the war until Stalingrad (63,000).
Two things which are being ignored here: First it was a hasty attack, which means it was not a pre-planned and coordinated assault. Second a hold does not mean that the division was stopped. Just because an attack initially fails does not mean the defenders beat an attacker. It means they absorbed some mps, if 7th flieger makes a renewed attack and pushes the cavalry division out, then it was simply delayed by the cavalry division. The only thing this simulates is that 7th Flieger attempted to press the advantage and catch the cavalry division off guard, being initially unsuccessful.
The problem is that the game simply weans German players to believe they can trash any unfortified division on the clear or woods with a hasty attack (and indeed they can, for the most part). So when it doesn't happen it becomes a shock, when in reality a hasty attack (in WitE's theoretical game terms) should be a much dicier proposition then it is right now. An unplanned, uncoordinated attack into woods is almost always militarily a bad idea.
 Stahel, David Kiev 1941: Hitler's Battle for Supremacy in the East. 2012. "...in the following month no fewer than 63,000 German soldiers fell (with tens of thousands more wounded), making July the deadliest month of the war until the battle of Stalingrad in the winter of 1942/1943."