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Possible random weather bug

 
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Possible random weather bug - 6/10/2012 6:59:13 AM   
notenome

 

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In my game vs 821bobo turns 19 and 20 featured no mud in the three soviet zones for two straight turns (blizzard, snow, snow IIRC). Considering the probability of not having mud in October for two consecutive turns (past turn 18) is .00158 or 0.2%, (1 in 500) this may be a bug with the random weather table.
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RE: Possible random weather bug - 6/10/2012 9:29:40 PM   
elmo3

 

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Can you show your math please?

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RE: Possible random weather bug - 6/11/2012 4:39:01 PM   
Joel Billings


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I can say that I've seen the weather chart in the code, so I'm pretty sure that the table is correct (it's how we found a few problems last year). I'd be surprised if there is a bug here, but anything is possible. Given the number of games, even a 1 in 500 chance it going to happen eventually.

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RE: Possible random weather bug - 6/11/2012 4:44:12 PM   
Flaviusx


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My suspicion is that the game is using a single random roll to resolve all the weather, and not on a zone basis. Which may or may not be intended.





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RE: Possible random weather bug - 6/13/2012 2:50:28 PM   
notenome

 

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Just to clarify the math:

The probability of no mud in the 3 Soviet zones for one turn is .0398 or 4% (5/14 x 4/13 x 4/11= .357 x .307 x .364 = .0398). The probability of no mud for two straight turns is .00158 or 0.2% (.0398 x .0398 = .00158), so 1 in 500. This is assuming that the weather roles are independent variables.

If the game uses a single role as Flaviusx suspects, then the chance of no mud is the chance of the game roling 11-15 (.333) and 2 consecutive 11-15 would be 0.110889, or 11%. If that's how the weather determination works (single role) then my result would not be indicative of alarm.

However my next turn seems to disprove the single role theory. I got mud in the north and center and snow in the south. Looking at the weather table, in a single role this would be impossible, as center and north have a bigger modifier. If the game uses a single role, then this is a 100% guaranteed bug. If the game uses multiple roles then its either a bug or one hell of an outlier (1 in 500, as aforementioned). Considering in another AAR (Tulius's AAR IIRC) he went straight to snow as well, it seems this might very well be a bug.

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RE: Possible random weather bug - 6/13/2012 5:45:54 PM   
Joel Billings


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I'm almost positive they are different rolls. At one time I suspected it was one roll, but I seem to recall Gary confirming it was not, and we found other issues that explained what I was seeing that was going wrong. I have a call into Gary to ask him, but I'd assume it's one roll.

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RE: Possible random weather bug - 6/13/2012 5:55:41 PM   
notenome

 

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Right, and considering its different rolls, the extremely low probability of a no mud October would seem to indicate some kind of bug with the table.

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