I guess I see this game a bit differently. While Tarhunnas has been getting hammered army wise, the Germans are running out of time and have not captured enough territory. I am sure Tarhunnas has easily been able to evacuate industry in most cases as well. It is turn 8 and the Germans are still not across the Dnepr in the south (they will be likely after this turn, but still). It took them until turn 6 something to capture Pskov, which is slow imo. With 16th and 18th army dispersed across the map, there will not be a concentrated drive on Leningrad at this point and AGC's northern flank will be long if there is to be a continued drive on Moscow. Should PG1 make a drive to the north and capture the area behind the swamps, so be it, but that also means the Germans will likely not get to the Stalino area before winter either.
Don't get me wrong; this is a great AAR, but IMO, I think the Germans are behind schedule here.
I guess it depends on what schedule you're on
IF your schedule is purely taking terrain at this or that turn, and if not, you are behind schedule, than sure, I'm behind schedule.
To follow your example though, I could have taken Pskov on turn 4, if I had wanted. But I chose to deblock the situation in the Center and create an approx. Front like pocket netting me 300k+ in dead Soviets before I started the advance on Leningrad. If I wouldn't have done so, I'd be protecting the same flank I am now only against a lot more Soviets willing to infiltrate at every opportunity.
I just finished turn 9, the counter stands at 2.5 million Soviet casualties. That's my schedule, and I'm ahead.